04-20-2020, 07:55 PM
Reposting this from JN.
Looked at the last 20, #33 overall picks and gave them my own grade (which could mean something completely different to you) of sorts.
2000: Darren Howard, DE, KS St., Saints: 3-time double digit sacks, lots of TFL (high single digits to double digits in every year), 50 AV in 9 seasons of completely healthy play (save for one). B player.
2001: Quincy Morgan, WR, KS. St., Browns: 1-time 900 yards receiving, not much else. 22 AV in 6 seasons of completely healthy play. C- player.
2002: Jabar Gaffney, WR, Florida, Texans: Only the one year of 900 yards receiving, but a super clutch, hard-nosed player that played for a long time and on some good teams. 52 AV in 11 seasons of completely healthy play. B- player.
2003: Eric Steinbach. LG, Iowa, Bengals: We know all about him; great guard, played LT in a pinch and played well wherever he went. 57 AV in 8 completely healthy seasons (only missed 3 games in 8 years). B+ player
2004: Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn, Cardinals: Fantastic LB with 7 years of 100+ tackles (2 of them, 100+ solo), the only player in NFL history with 20 FF, 20 sacks and 20 picks. Even when losing steam with us, still put up great numbers, even if he sucked in coverage. 113 AV in 14 healthy years (only 1, less than 14 games played and it was 12). B+ player.
2005: David Bass, G/C, Michigan, 49ers: Solid G who started majority of games in every season he played (save for 1) and won a SB as the starting C for the Giants. 41 approximate value in 9 healthy seasons (only 1 was less than 11 games). B- player.
2006: Demeco Ryans, MLB, Alabama, Texans: FINALLY a pro-bowler lol. 6 of 10 years in the league, over 100 tackles, DROY, still only 35 years old lol. 70 AV in 10 healthy seasons (only 2 less than 14 games played). A- player.
2007: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan, Cardinals: Solid DT, more of a lane-plugger than penetrator. Good rotation piece, started at DT for the Patriots last 2 SBs. 51 AV in 11 healthy seasons (only 2 less than 11 games played). B- player.
2008: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson, Dolphins: First true bust, that did virtually nothing in his time in the league. Did last 6 seasons (6 AV), but was only truly healthy for 2 of them. D- player.
2009: Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan, Lions: Solid player that had decent years; another George Iloka basically, but a bit better in terms of raw numbers. 29 AV in 7 healthy years (only 1 less than 11). C+ player.
2010: Rodger Saffold, OT/OG, Indiana, Rams: Really good guard (terrible tackle lol), got a massive contract last year from the Titans and looks to continue his career for a while. 61 AV in 10 healthy years (only 3 less than 12). B player.
2011: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia, Patriots: Second bust, did almost literally nothing, in 3 years. 1 AV in 3 injury-plagued years. F player.
2012: Brian Quick, WR, App St., Rams: Quincy Morgan type, with worse per-year numbers, but was very good on STs. 12 AV in 7 relatively healthy years. D+ player.
2013: Johnathan Cyprien, SS, FIU, Jaguars: Really good, tackling-machine SS. Healthy every year until 2017, then has missed a bunch of games (all of 2018) since. 26 AV in 6 mediocre-health years. C+ player.
2014: Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA, Texans: Solid backup OG who has played well when asked to start; we'll see how he does this year. 24 AV in 6 healthy seasons (only 1 less than 11 and he didn't play in all games last season, due to the team he was on, despite being healthy). C+ player.
2015: Landon Collins, S, Alabama, Giants: Stud, all-pro S who has been impressive and a half. Despite the teams he's been on, outside shot at big awards. 36 AV in really healthy years (only 1 less than 15 and it was 12). A- player.
2016: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, OKSU, Browns: Solid DE, probably would've had better numbers had he not played in Cleveland, next to Danny Shelton's horrid self for 2 seasons. 21 AV in 4 relatively healthy seasons (1 16, 1 14, 2 10). C+ player.
2017: Kevin King, CB, Wsh., Packers: Super-hurt for his first two year, was healthy last year and was great. 10 AV in 3 injured seasons. C- player.
2018: Austin Corbett, C, Nevada, Browns: Not a great player and was shipped away for a 5th round pick. 4 AV in 2 seasons-worth of 11 GP. D player.
2019: Byron Murphy, CB, Wsh., Cardinals: Decent rookie year. 5 AV in a fully-healthy 1 year. C+ pick.
(The grades are just my opinion and aren't set in stone or anything. Also, the last 3 guys really should get a few more seasons under their belts, before a clear call can be made)
So taking an overall look at this list, you have 2 bonafide busts, 2 potential busts, 2 studs, 5 really good players and the rest are middling to solid. So 7 guys that are starters on each team, 4 that are horrid and the rest, somewhere in between.
For our positions of need this year:
The 3 WRs have all ranged from role players to good.
The 5 Olineman have all been solid or better players, save for Corbett.
The 2 LBs have been fantastic players.
Just going on the last 20 years of #33 overall picks, I'd say an OL or LB would be the surest thing.
Therefore, my official stance is, if:
Baun
Queen
Murray
Jones
Wilson
Are available at #33, I'm running to call in the pick.
If they aren't, BPA or trade down.
Looked at the last 20, #33 overall picks and gave them my own grade (which could mean something completely different to you) of sorts.
2000: Darren Howard, DE, KS St., Saints: 3-time double digit sacks, lots of TFL (high single digits to double digits in every year), 50 AV in 9 seasons of completely healthy play (save for one). B player.
2001: Quincy Morgan, WR, KS. St., Browns: 1-time 900 yards receiving, not much else. 22 AV in 6 seasons of completely healthy play. C- player.
2002: Jabar Gaffney, WR, Florida, Texans: Only the one year of 900 yards receiving, but a super clutch, hard-nosed player that played for a long time and on some good teams. 52 AV in 11 seasons of completely healthy play. B- player.
2003: Eric Steinbach. LG, Iowa, Bengals: We know all about him; great guard, played LT in a pinch and played well wherever he went. 57 AV in 8 completely healthy seasons (only missed 3 games in 8 years). B+ player
2004: Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn, Cardinals: Fantastic LB with 7 years of 100+ tackles (2 of them, 100+ solo), the only player in NFL history with 20 FF, 20 sacks and 20 picks. Even when losing steam with us, still put up great numbers, even if he sucked in coverage. 113 AV in 14 healthy years (only 1, less than 14 games played and it was 12). B+ player.
2005: David Bass, G/C, Michigan, 49ers: Solid G who started majority of games in every season he played (save for 1) and won a SB as the starting C for the Giants. 41 approximate value in 9 healthy seasons (only 1 was less than 11 games). B- player.
2006: Demeco Ryans, MLB, Alabama, Texans: FINALLY a pro-bowler lol. 6 of 10 years in the league, over 100 tackles, DROY, still only 35 years old lol. 70 AV in 10 healthy seasons (only 2 less than 14 games played). A- player.
2007: Alan Branch, DT, Michigan, Cardinals: Solid DT, more of a lane-plugger than penetrator. Good rotation piece, started at DT for the Patriots last 2 SBs. 51 AV in 11 healthy seasons (only 2 less than 11 games played). B- player.
2008: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson, Dolphins: First true bust, that did virtually nothing in his time in the league. Did last 6 seasons (6 AV), but was only truly healthy for 2 of them. D- player.
2009: Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan, Lions: Solid player that had decent years; another George Iloka basically, but a bit better in terms of raw numbers. 29 AV in 7 healthy years (only 1 less than 11). C+ player.
2010: Rodger Saffold, OT/OG, Indiana, Rams: Really good guard (terrible tackle lol), got a massive contract last year from the Titans and looks to continue his career for a while. 61 AV in 10 healthy years (only 3 less than 12). B player.
2011: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia, Patriots: Second bust, did almost literally nothing, in 3 years. 1 AV in 3 injury-plagued years. F player.
2012: Brian Quick, WR, App St., Rams: Quincy Morgan type, with worse per-year numbers, but was very good on STs. 12 AV in 7 relatively healthy years. D+ player.
2013: Johnathan Cyprien, SS, FIU, Jaguars: Really good, tackling-machine SS. Healthy every year until 2017, then has missed a bunch of games (all of 2018) since. 26 AV in 6 mediocre-health years. C+ player.
2014: Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA, Texans: Solid backup OG who has played well when asked to start; we'll see how he does this year. 24 AV in 6 healthy seasons (only 1 less than 11 and he didn't play in all games last season, due to the team he was on, despite being healthy). C+ player.
2015: Landon Collins, S, Alabama, Giants: Stud, all-pro S who has been impressive and a half. Despite the teams he's been on, outside shot at big awards. 36 AV in really healthy years (only 1 less than 15 and it was 12). A- player.
2016: Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, OKSU, Browns: Solid DE, probably would've had better numbers had he not played in Cleveland, next to Danny Shelton's horrid self for 2 seasons. 21 AV in 4 relatively healthy seasons (1 16, 1 14, 2 10). C+ player.
2017: Kevin King, CB, Wsh., Packers: Super-hurt for his first two year, was healthy last year and was great. 10 AV in 3 injured seasons. C- player.
2018: Austin Corbett, C, Nevada, Browns: Not a great player and was shipped away for a 5th round pick. 4 AV in 2 seasons-worth of 11 GP. D player.
2019: Byron Murphy, CB, Wsh., Cardinals: Decent rookie year. 5 AV in a fully-healthy 1 year. C+ pick.
(The grades are just my opinion and aren't set in stone or anything. Also, the last 3 guys really should get a few more seasons under their belts, before a clear call can be made)
So taking an overall look at this list, you have 2 bonafide busts, 2 potential busts, 2 studs, 5 really good players and the rest are middling to solid. So 7 guys that are starters on each team, 4 that are horrid and the rest, somewhere in between.
For our positions of need this year:
The 3 WRs have all ranged from role players to good.
The 5 Olineman have all been solid or better players, save for Corbett.
The 2 LBs have been fantastic players.
Just going on the last 20 years of #33 overall picks, I'd say an OL or LB would be the surest thing.
Therefore, my official stance is, if:
Baun
Queen
Murray
Jones
Wilson
Are available at #33, I'm running to call in the pick.
If they aren't, BPA or trade down.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
![[Image: Truck_1_0_1_.png]](https://card.psnprofiles.com/2/Truck_1_0_1_.png)
.
That is a whole 'nother animal. I just got all giddy and damn near messed my pants at the thought of another high 1st round pick...
