1st Round Projections Available at #33

[bengaloo]

I'd take Baun but would be happy with Jones also. It would be hard to be too mad if they took McKinney. He is definitely 1st round talent, but we could address OLB or RT with guys who could play right away without reaching, which are both positions of need. I like Mims but would prefer we get a WR later and fill more pressing needs.

LB is my wish. We need 2 in this draft, imo. An ILB type, and an OLB/DE type like Baun. If we decide on Jones to replace Hart, then thats a win also.

[CJD]

(04-24-2020, 01:18 AM)Big Boss Wrote: Josh Jones would be my pick, but these coaches seem to think more highly of their current o-line players than we do.  Meanwhile, they have two injury-prone WRs entering contract years.

Denzel Mims is my guess.  Skill position, position of need, had some first round grades, and has familiarity with a member of the coaching staff.  Fits perfectly.

Tonight we'll find out if all that talk about being comfortable with our oline was just smoke.

I hope it was because I want a Jones.

I'm not interested in Mims. Give me Higgins or Baun if not Jones. 

But what I'd take beyond Jones is a trade down and a 3rd or 4th round pick easily. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-24-2020, 07:15 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Tonight we'll find out if all that talk about being comfortable with our oline was just smoke.

I hope it was because I want a Jones.

I'm not interested in Mims. Give me Higgins or Baun if not Jones. 

But what I'd take beyond Jones is a trade down and a 3rd or 4th round pick easily. 

Why Higgins over Mims? Didn’t Higgins have a terrible pro day and then choose not to test at the combine?

[CJD]

(04-24-2020, 07:26 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Why Higgins over Mims? Didn’t Higgins have a terrible pro day and then choose not to test at the combine?

Higgins is a star on tape. Mims is a star in underpants.

I see Higgins is A.J. Green lite.

get why people like Mims. He had decent production in college, he ran a 4.38 40 and has great size.


... But I watch him and I just don't see him getting consistent separation. He uses a very subtle push off a lot right before the ball arrives and, while it wasn't called a lot in college, I think NFL refs watch offensive PI a little closer. And he doesn't play up to his 40 time at all. 


He also has a relatively high drop percentage. And I am just, in general, very nervous about major off season risers. How did evaluators watch him at the end of the season and say "3rd or 4th rounder" and then, with no real games played past that point, change their mind to "elite first round prospect" because of a week of practices and a 40 yard run?

Also worth noting: the players he beat at CB at the Senior bowl? ...Not a single day 1 or ( likely) day 2 prospect among them. Troy Pride Jr, Michael Ojemudia, Lamar Jackson, Javaris Davis, Essang Bassey, Terrell Burgess were the CBs on the North team, where Mims made his name in the practices. In the actual game, he played against the South team CBs, who were Kindle Vildor, Dane Jackson, A.J. Green, Reggie Robinson II and Darnay Holmes. Holmes may go in the 3rd round as a slot corner, but the rest are also day 3 corners.

So are we really surprised that Mims did well against future day 3 and undrafted cornerbacks? Honestly, I'm kind of nervous about any WR that became well known because of the Senior Bowl practices. That includes Van Jefferson, K.J. Hill and Anthony Gandy-Golden. All of these guys got a stock bump from the Senior bowl playing against exclusively bad cornerbacks.

Its just too many concerns and weaknesses. I see some mock drafts having the Bengals take him at 33 and I'm just nervous about him replacing AJ. He's a very risky prospect to me.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-24-2020, 07:32 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Higgins is a star on tape. Mims is a star in underpants.

I see Higgins is A.J. Green lite.

get why people like Mims. He had decent production in college, he ran a 4.38 40 and has great size.


... But I watch him and I just don't see him getting consistent separation. He uses a very subtle push off a lot right before the ball arrives and, while it wasn't called a lot in college, I think NFL refs watch offensive PI a little closer. And he doesn't play up to his 40 time at all. 


He also has a relatively high drop percentage. And I am just, in general, very nervous about major off season risers. How did evaluators watch him at the end of the season and say "3rd or 4th rounder" and then, with no real games played past that point, change their mind to "elite first round prospect" because of a week of practices and a 40 yard run?

Also worth noting: the players he beat at CB at the Senior bowl? ...Not a single day 1 or ( likely) day 2 prospect among them. Troy Pride Jr, Michael Ojemudia, Lamar Jackson, Javaris Davis, Essang Bassey, Terrell Burgess were the CBs on the North team, where Mims made his name in the practices. In the actual game, he played against the South team CBs, who were Kindle Vildor, Dane Jackson, A.J. Green, Reggie Robinson II and Darnay Holmes. Holmes may go in the 3rd round as a slot corner, but the rest are also day 3 corners.

So are we really surprised that Mims did well against future day 3 and undrafted cornerbacks? Honestly, I'm kind of nervous about any WR that became well known because of the Senior Bowl practices. That includes Van Jefferson, K.J. Hill and Anthony Gandy-Golden. All of these guys got a stock bump from the Senior bowl playing against exclusively bad cornerbacks.

Its just too many concerns and weaknesses. I see some mock drafts having the Bengals take him at 33 and I'm just nervous about him replacing AJ. He's a very risky prospect to me.

Fair enough. Thanks for the breakdown.

[BengalsBong]

(04-24-2020, 01:52 AM)BonnieBengal Wrote: I think we need guys who can start right away, especially if they are drafted at the top of the second round.

I agree with this Baun has the diluted sample so a red flag and he could fall farther in the draft but he would be starting if we picked him at a place of need. Jones could start at RT him Jonah and Burrows could grow together and let us part ways with Hart while Johnson could back up right tackle and fight for a RG spot. Mins would not start for us unless a injury occurred and Mins does not run past people and get separation so I would go after a starter with the 33# pick. And maybe pick up a WR later in the draft that is a burner from a small school or with limited stats due to scheme.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-24-2020, 01:45 AM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Austin Jackson and Ezra Cleveland are more like Og. Not Josh Jones.

Hindsight is great but go back and OG profile was 1st round/2nd round grade.. athletic was mentioned often but heavy feet. We cant predict how Jones is going to turn out either ( amazing how players from last yr. 1st round already mentioned now as busts) but we on have our own gut feeling and that is mine with Jones.. I dont have that feel with Baun ..in the end i have settled on it does not appeal a clear 33 pick and with our many needs I think we can trade back add another quality pick and probably still get either Baun, Jones or another quality player some people act like the draft of nfl caliber players  is done at 40 picks.. that is crazy

[Pat5775]

Jones, Mims, or Baun.

[Sled21]

I don't get to watch a whole lot of college football outside of UofL and UK because I'm usually busy on Saturdays. So BPA, I have no idea. But I think for position of need it has to be Jones or Baun. And I'm not too sure we want Baun simply because he was dumb enough to have a diluted sample when he knew he was about to be tested. Seems like he's a rocket scientist....not.

[BengalsBong]

(04-24-2020, 03:40 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Why? AJ and Ross are injury prone, and both could be gone next year. We might not get a better chance to replace AJ than this. At least not without using a high 1st.

That said, if we want to wait until the 3rd and hope Pittman is there I’m all for that. But we definitely need a WR.

If we released AJ this year then ok pick up the WR but since we franchise tagged the guy you got to live by the sword die by the sword. We have other spots we can get starters with the 33# pick so fill a hole do not add depth till later in the draft.

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-24-2020, 07:15 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Tonight we'll find out if all that talk about being comfortable with our oline was just smoke.

I hope it was because I want a Jones.

I'm not interested in Mims. Give me Higgins or Baun if not Jones. 

But what I'd take beyond Jones is a trade down and a 3rd or 4th round pick easily. 

What about Tee Higgins ? Never  mind I got confused lol

[BonnieBengal]

(04-24-2020, 08:09 AM)BengalsBong Wrote: I agree with this Baun has the diluted sample so a red flag and he could fall farther in the draft but he would be starting if we picked him at a place of need. Jones could start at RT him Jonah and Burrows could grow together and let us part ways with Hart while Johnson could back up right tackle and fight for a RG spot. Mins would not start for us unless a injury occurred and Mins does not run past people and get separation so I would go after a starter with the 33# pick. And maybe pick up a WR later in the draft that is a burner from a small school or with limited stats due to scheme.

I think I'd like them to take a chance on Baun.

[TecmoBengals]

I'm leaning toward Jones. Protect Burrow is the mantra. Keep his #9 jersey clean.

[Tiger Teeth]

(04-24-2020, 01:18 AM)sandwedge Wrote: I'm sticking to my mock, Baun. We only have 2 LBs worth a shit right now.

Winner!  +1

[BengalsBong]

(04-24-2020, 09:01 AM)BonnieBengal Wrote: I think I'd like them to take a chance on Baun.

I am ok with Baun or Jones.

[CJD]

I completely forgot about Epenesa!

If we're serious about shifting between 4-3 and 3-4, I think he could play a really big role in this defense.

But you gotta wonder about those athletic numbers...

My updated big board:

1. Josh Jones
2. Tee Higgins
3. A.J. Epenesa
4. Zack Baun
5. Trade down
6. Yetur Gross-Matos
7. Michael Pittman Jr
8. Denzel Mims
9. Ezra Cleveland
10. Josh Uche

[Daddy-O]

Unless the Bengals are hell-bent on signing AJ to a longer term contract I think WR has to be the call at the top of the 2nd.

OL and LB are the biggest needs in 2020 but unless you get a starter it has to be a replacement and development pick.

In that regard I guess one of the LB's would be the logical choice. But if you're going for a future replacement with this pick it has to be WR (again, assuming AJ doesn't get a new contract - or even if he does as a possible Ross replacement). And if the WR they want really bad is there that might help them with the AJ contract decision.

Just my 2 cents, and that's about what it's worth....

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-24-2020, 01:12 AM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: First round projections left on the board. Who do you take?

17 Josh Jones OL HOU

20 Yetur Gross-Matos EDGE PSU

21 Xavier McKinney S BAMA

24 Kristian Fulton CB LSU

26 Zack Baun LB WISC

28 Grant Delpit S LSU

29 Ross Blacklock DL TCU

30 Trevon Diggs CB BAMA

31 Jonathan Taylor RB WISC

Josh Jones seems like the pick to me.

Well guys, we not only got our QB, but we are sitting in an awesome position right now.  

This is how I break down our situation:  I honestly don't see a guy that had a first round grade that stands out so much as the guy the Bengals were hoping would drop to them.  I see a lot of really good options here.  But not one REALLY stands out over the others.  So, here is my plan:

1.) Seek a trade.  We don't really have to seek anything.  There will be a team (or more likely, teams) that covet one of the guys listed above (and there are more:  Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Yetur G-M, Mims, etc...lots of folks had them as first round talent).  Compare and negotiate.  If the Bengals can slide 4-6 picks and pick up an additional 3rd rounder, it is more than worth it.  There is still a ton of talent to be had in Rd 3, and I am unsure if one of those players is better than one we could get a bit later and the additional 3rd rounder.  Remember, it is likely that one of these players slides all the way to our pick in the 3rd round.  Someone always falls.   If the Bengals get a really solid trade offer, take it and re-assess.

2.) With no trade, I look at the board and decide what players are:

Highest ranked
Position we covet (WR, OT/G, LB/DE)
Have a significant drop off behind them in their position group.  

By that assessment, I believe the best fit and biggest drop off behind them is Denzel Mims.  I love Claypool, but that is it of the WRs that would be left.  There is no way I see Claypool available in Rd 3.  And there are a lot of guys that fit in to the WR2 or WR3 category, but no one that I feel can take over a game like these guys.  Our depth of guys that create immediate separation and can line up everywhere is paper thin.  I don't want to try and wait for Rd 3 and hope Claypool is there.  So, I would have Mims at the top of my list.

Zach Baun- I have not been as high on him as many others, and I think Josh Uche is every bit as good if not a better prospect.  Willie Gay, Jr. buries both in terms of coverage ability and would be the immediate starter in nickel packages (that we are in 65% of the time) next to Pratt.  There is also Troy Dye, Akeem D-G, Davion Taylor, and Logan Wilson that would be immediate nickel package starters.  That is a lot of depth still available and we could get at the top of Rd 3.  There are also the safeties Kyle Dugger and Jeremy Chinn that are versatile enough to play nickel backer and SS.  Those guys are supreme athletes as well.  Lots of choices here, and some should be available in Rd 3. 

Josh Jones- Here is the wild card.  I believe he would project as a guard here.  He simply doesn't have the pedigree to line up at RT from day 1.  I think Hart and Johnson are actually better fits for RT.  Lucas Niang is a better prospect, as a tackle, but has an injury and do we really want to start with that?  I don't see using the first pick overall in Rd 2 for a guy that MIGHT be able to push out XSF at RG.  Unless I see a beast of a RG that is head and shoulders above his peers here, I am waiting on a guard prospect.  There is a very good chance that Damien Lewis will be  there at the top of Rd 4.

McKinney is excellent value here, but he needs to improve tackling and running a 4.63 might have really hurt his stock.  If I wanted a safety that could do it all (and play nickel backer) and even return punts, I would take Kyle Dugger after sliding in Rd 2 or aim for him at the top of Rd 3.

In summary, I would try to slide back and reassess using the same logical breakdown of the position groups.  If there is not a great trade available, I am taking Mims.  

[fredtoast]

(04-24-2020, 01:18 AM)sandwedge Wrote: I'm sticking to my mock, Baun. We only have 2 LBs worth a shit right now.

We currently have a lot of nothing at LB.

I am excited about Pratt, but we are still talking "potential" with him, and BYnes is a 30 year old career backup who has been cut in year two of every multiyear contract he has signed after his rookie deal.

I want Baun, but in today's NFL OL may be more important than LB.  So maybe Jones.

[fredtoast]

(04-24-2020, 09:23 AM)Daddy-O Wrote: Unless the Bengals are hell-bent on signing AJ to a longer term contract I think WR has to be the call at the top of the 2nd.

I agree that WR is a big need, but iut is easier to find decent WRs in the third than a LB or OG.