Realistic 2020 Expectations

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-29-2020, 12:39 PM)Fullrock Wrote: I know we're all excited about the season, and rightfully so. We have a new face of the franchise, spent the most money ever in free agency to bring in quality players, and have some talent on both sides of the ball.

The question: What are your realistic expectations this season in terms of wins and losses?

This is going to be far from a normal off-season. No rookie mini-camp, no OTA's, no team mini-camp, and possibly a delayed or abbreviated training camp. I'm not sure that bodes well for a team that will have several new starters on defense, 2 or 3 new starters on the offensive line, and a rookie QB under center. It's hard to replace the physical reps that come with being on the field.

With all that said, I think a realistic goal for this team is
8-8. It's going to be tough in the division. Every team improved themselves, and if Ben returns to form (that's a big if at his age) it'll be a dog fight to win 3 division games for this team. I'll be ecstatic if they can get to 8 wins and build toward a playoff appearance in 2021. Of course, I'll gladly hope to be wrong and wish for double digit wins.

I agree with your expectations. I think we should win around half our games. Will take time once again for the team as a whole
to gel. We have a lot of new players here now and Zac and Lou are changing up both sides of the ball. A new scheme built around
Burrow on Offense and a 3-4 hybrid on Defense will take time to implement and it will take some time for the players to get comfy.

But once they do, who knows how many games we win, like you, hoping for more than 8 but it might be too late in the year to get
us into the Playoffs.

[*Nately120*]

(04-29-2020, 02:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is crazy talk.

Here is what we are adding that we did not have last year

#1 overall draft pick at QB
#9 overall draft pick at LT
$18 million a year WR
$14 million a year CB
$13 million a year DT
$6  million a year SS

If all that just gets us 4 more wins then we need to fire the coaching staff.


Have none of you all noticed how every year there are NFL teams that go from the bottom of their division to the playoffs?  Wre none of you Bengals fans in 2011?  With all of the moves the Bengals have made this offseason we need to see at least 9-10 wins.

With that influx of talent ZT's seat should be getting hot. Barring massive injuries, if we aren't an 8 win team or better I'm cutting ties with this coaching staff.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-29-2020, 02:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This is crazy talk.

Here is what we are adding that we did not have last year

#1 overall draft pick at QB
#9 overall draft pick at LT
$18 million a year WR
$14 million a year CB
$13 million a year DT
$6  million a year SS

If all that just gets us 4 more wins then we need to fire the coaching staff.


Have none of you all noticed how every year there are NFL teams that go from the bottom of their division to the playoffs?  Wre none of you Bengals fans in 2011?  With all of the moves the Bengals have made this offseason we need to see at least 9-10 wins.

Have to agree with Fred here. If we only get 4 wins this year people will need to be fired, like all of them.

[*Nately120*]

(04-29-2020, 04:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Have to agree with Fred here. If we only get 4 wins this year people will need to be fired, like all of them.

4 wins would be a massive disappointment.  If Burrow is the real deal we should be using him to lure real coaches here already.  

Prove me wrong, ZT. 

[CardCounterChris]

Honestly, I think roughly 9-7, but I'll say that we should be contending for the playoffs. I could see us just missing, or just sliding in. I think the team is competant, but there's still some holes to fill. If our draft picks work out and our FA's play up to their expectations I could see next years draft and FA putting us in serious contention.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-29-2020, 04:24 PM)Nately120 Wrote: 4 wins would be a massive disappointment.  If Burrow is the real deal we should be using him to lure real coaches here already.  

Prove me wrong, ZT. 

Completely agree.

(04-29-2020, 04:25 PM)CardCounterChris Wrote: Honestly, I think roughly 9-7, but I'll say that we should be contending for the playoffs.  I could see us just missing, or just sliding in.  I think the team is competant, but there's still some holes to fill.  If our draft picks work out and our FA's play up to their expectations I could see next years draft and FA putting us in serious contention.

Feeling the same.

[hollodero]

(04-29-2020, 04:09 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't understand what you are saying.  I never said we increased our payroll this much.  All I did was list the NEW players we added to the team.

The most expensive player we lost in free agency was Darquez Dennard who got $4.5 million a year.  That is much less than any of the guys I listed.

And if it turns out cutting Kirkpatrick and replacing him with Waynes was a bad move then that is another reason the coaching staff should be fired.

Oh I do agree with the last part. If we were to win just four or five games, then there needs to be some firing.

As for the rest, my point would be the following. First off, I suppose in all those years the Bengals spent less in FA you were the first person who - rightfully imho - pointed out that spending big in FA is not a sure recipe for success and that many teams have failed with that approach. What did the Browns think last year? They spent a ton and indeed were treated as the next sure winner in the NFL, yet it did not turn out that way. Same happened to the Jags and to many other teams in years before. There's no guarantee it will turn out great for the Bengals.

My second point would be that after all is said and done, each team will still spend the same amount of money for all their player's salaries. So pointing to players, old or new, and how much they make doesn't seem to be the right metric to determine future success to begin with.

Also, Kirkpatrick earned more than Dennard. Sure we did not technically lose him in FA, but he is still gone. And applying a similar logic to yours could lead to a list that says the Bengals will not be successful, because -9 millions are spent on him, -4,5 for Dennard and so on. And in the end, the minusses have to more or less balance out the plusses you listed, except when you account for a higher overall cap. But this puts all the opponents on an overall plus as well and is not a specific Bengals plus.

Lastly, Burrow and Williams are yet unproven. We experienced a Lineman taken at 21 who also missed a year due to injury and was not a contributor to success afterwards, to put it mildly. I don't see a guarantee that this is an impossible scenario regarding Williams just because he was picked 12 picks earlier.

[Hoofhearted]

(04-29-2020, 02:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If handing out $150 million in free agent contract and having the #1 overall pick, plus adding another first round pick from the year before only gets us two more wins then how in the hell will we improve by 4 wins next year?

You think we will switch head coaches that quickly?

We'll add 4 wins the next year by JB being a year older, scheme/players/coaches matched a little closer, and chemistry gained by them playing together.

No, they'll give Zach at least 2 more years with Joe unless they're abysmal next year, which I don't think they will be. They'll be much more competitive than last year.

[SunsetBengal]

I'm trying not to quantify my expectations in number of wins, but rather overall quality of play. With improved quality of play, the wins will come on their own. I fully expect this team to grow, develop, become stronger together. I expect for them in the games that they happen to not win, to force their opponents to play as hard as they can, through the last second of every game, in order to truly earn that victory.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I am thinking 6-10 or 7-9.

Yes, we made massive upgrades, but everyone else getsbetter, too. Look at our division. The Ravensare really good and had a good draft. Pittsburgh gets Big Ben back and still has a great D. And the Browns seriously upgraded both OT spots.
Hard to see us winning more than 2 games in division.

With so many new pieces, I think the challenges/changes to camp hurt us more than last year.

I see us going 2-4 or 1-5 in the division but 5-5 out of it.

Great shot: Browns at home, Jags at home, Giants at home, Chargers at home.
Good shot: Browns away, Dolphins away, Redskins away.
Decent shot: Colts away, Eagles away, Cowboys home
Tough sledding: Steelers home, Ravens home, Texans away, Steelers away, Ravens away

[JWW1971]

With the FA and draft that we just had along with the coaches having that year to bed in, I am looking at an 8 - 10 win season

[*psychdoctor*]

I think 8-8 with a rookie QB would be huge for a franchise that has struggled over the last 4 years and still missing pieces along the offensive line. Would not surprise me if Burrow changes the culture of the team quickly and the team goes 10-6. Anything less than 7-9 would feel like a disappointment.

[*bengalfan74*]

There's a rags to riches story nearly every season in the NFL, sometimes two or three. It's not anything that far out of the norm. I feel this team could be one of them, even should be one of them.

Like sunset it's not so much about a certain number of wins plateau for me as it is seeing a team growing and improving. Seeing a team that looks like they belong in the NFL. I want to be able to throw away the Benny Hill music.

What ends up going down with the preseason/training camp/OTC's will mean a lot. I'd say it will be a slow start if most of that gets cut out. But I still wouldn't rule out anything, we'll see.

[Trademark]

12-4 super bowl win

[Joelist]

I suspect this season will be like two seasons in a manner of speaking...

Because of the lack of an extensive preseason the first few games we will be kind of like a clown show out there. However, assuming of course our schemes are sound the team will gel as the season goes on and will finish very strong as the proverbial light goes on.

[Bengalholic]

I'ts hard to predict what 2020 will look like for this team. 

Since 2003, 16 teams with 5 wins or less have finished in their division's basement, only to win it the next season. 
However, only 5 of the 31 teams (prior to Bengals last year) to finish 2-14 had a winning season the year after. 

I'm optimistic though. I think if they can stay relatively healthy and all the new players gel quickly...it could be a very exciting season that will be fun to watch play out.

[BenZoo2]

No sense in making any predictions until we know what the season looks like. It could only be a 12 or 14 game schedule. Until we know more, I’ll refrain


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[guyofthetiger]

My first prediction is no or a shortened season due to the virus. I'm afraid it will resurface in the fall and cancel the season. So I am going to predict 2-2. That's still .500.

[Essex Johnson]

My expectations are 9-7 Wild Card chance.. we did it in 2011 with the last major revamp and we have a better team now than in 2011 on paper and the Steelers were the SB runner up so and beat the Ravens in the Div. Finals so we had a tougher division coming into 2011 at top end than we do this year.

[Attackcat]

ill be happy with 6 wins, i said for years when marvin was here im ready for something different. we kinda got a bit of it last year, but we really got change this year.
cant complain when you get what you asked for.