Realistic 2020 Expectations

[Fan_in_Kettering]

I see four possible wins:  Jacksonville, Washington, New York, and one against Cleveland.

A winning season is not realistic; I just want to see quality play, some physicality, some energy, and some purpose. 

[Fullrock]

(05-05-2020, 04:34 PM)fortyyearfan Wrote: 11-5 deep into the playoffs,and a strong possibly we are dancing for the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP,We got winning Joe,nuff said. :andy: :andy: :andy: :an:andy: :andy:

  Every game will be sold out,WELCOME TO OUR JUNGLE. :andy:

This right here is why I used the word REALISTIC in the thread. This is a far from realistic expectation.

[Essex Johnson]

(05-05-2020, 05:14 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: I see four possible wins:  Jacksonville, Washington, New York, and one against Cleveland.

A winning season is not realistic; I just want to see quality play, some physicality, some energy, and some purpose. 

Well we have a better team coming in than 2011 and we went 9-7.. and our division at the top end was better in 2010 than it was in 2019 so i don;t see 7 to 9 wins as unrealistic  if so Burrow is not as good we we think he is going to be out of the gate

[Essex Johnson]

(04-30-2020, 10:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't want to sound like I am just greasing the skids to get Zac out of here, but I don't see how we could look like we are headed in the right direction if we just win 4-6 games.

I'll cut Zac some slack if there are a lot of injuries.  We have added a god bit of talent, but we still don't have much depth.  And I'll give him a break if we lose some games on hail marys, pick sixes, or some lucky flukes like that, but keeping games close is meaningless.  Almost EVERY NFL game is close.  When you look at betting lines it is rare to see a spread over 7 points.  The biggest difference between good coaches and bad coaches is winning the close games.

I totally agree, we actually had a few of those close games this season.. 4 wins and to me Burrow is off to a questionable NFL QB in the day and age we are in now... 

[fredtoast]

(05-05-2020, 05:14 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: A winning season is not realistic; 

Why not?

What would have to happen next offseason for you to say a winning season is "realistic" in 2021?

[Hoofhearted]

Our line is still pretty bad, LBs definitely have more talent (but still an unknown), and we still have a really green HC & DC. It takes time to gel those things together, especially with how they AFCN is looking. I said 4-6 wins based on those things alone, along with having a rookie QB.

This team will certainly be better than last year, and if they hit on some of the LB picks, Jonah plays admirable, and JB is the real deal holyfield, things could be quite a bit different. But as of now, they have a ton of unknowns and what if's. I think a lot of how they do depends on how well they fair in the division. If they can .500, then they can certainly be on the right track to an 8-9 win season. But ratbirds are tough, we haven't beat Pitt since 2015, and the Browns are the Browns but still no easy out. If we can go .500 in the division, then we have a real shot at a .500 or better season.

[TSwigZ]

8-8

Yes we got our QB and yes we have some talent but not all the money we spent in Free Agency or draft selections we had will hit and the OLine will once again struggle early in the season but we’ll finish the year strong and Joe will win rookie of the year

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(05-06-2020, 02:36 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why not?

What would have to happen next offseason for you to say a winning season is "realistic" in 2021?

Those are fair questions, Fred, and you deserve honest answers.

First of all you ask why I do not think a winning season is realistic in 2020.  I want a winning season so let me get that out there.  It is obvious the Bengals have significantly upgraded the personnel on both sides of the ball especially on defense.  I'm a "defense guy" so this pleases me immensely but the big unknown on defense is the scheme.  Last year Lou Anarumo didn't change the existing Teryl Austin - Marvin Lewis scheme much and that was by necessity as his personnel weren't in place; Marvin's were.  Now that Lou has carte blanche to remake the defense, I'm thinking it might take a few years to get it right especially considering the personnel the Bengals now have leads me to think Lou wants to run a base 3-4 with occasional 4-3 looks with the secondary playing lots of nickel and dime packages which might take on 3-3-5 and 2-3-6 formations, respectively.

The addition of linebackers via both the free agency and the draft warms my repaired heart.  When was the last time the Bengals had three or four dominant linebackers, maybe 1988?  In the AFC North with quick tight ends and Lamar Jackson, having many versatile linebackers cannot be understated.  The secondary looks strong but we need to see what their base coverage will be.  Will Lou dial up the right coverage for the right receivers?  That's still up in the air especially after watching the Bengals get gashed up the middle and between the seams in 2019.

For the offense let's see what Brian Callahan and Zac Taylor can do.  While the idea of building an offense around Joe Burrow sounds like lots of fun and very rewarding, I still have a sneaking suspicion the Bengals might partially try to fit Burrow into an existing scheme and if that happens the offense will sputter.   Burrow is a unique quantity and I think it's best to find every way possible to keep him upright and leverage his strengths vice trying to fit him into something in which he's uncomfortable.  The unknown on offense is play calling because in 2019 it was horrible.  I realize given the personnel, especially up front, the playbook was severely limited but even the offensive line should show improvement in 2020.  I want to see a nice run-pass balance; no more chucking it 50+ times per game!  At LSU Joe Burrow had the highest completion percentage when he threw the ball around 30-35 times per game.  

This will involve new schemes with new players on both offense and defense; I fear it will take more than one season to perfect the schemes and this is why I do not see a winning season for the Bengals in 2020.  I hope and pray I am totally wrong.

Now for your next question about the 2021 off-season:  I want to see another good year in free agency and a draft focused on putting together the best offensive and defensive lines in the league.  The game is still won in the trenches.  What will help me be more optimistic during the 2020 season itself is simply using the "eye test."  Is the play more physical?  Are the guys making tackles, especially in space? Is each play executed with purpose, energy, and panache?  Finally, are the coaches playoff quality yet?