Did You Know... (AJ Green)

[impactplaya]

AJ Greens impact on the offense goes beyond
The stats he accumalates
He draws the coverage of the best CB on the other
Side of the field
That allows the other WRs to have a better than
50/50 to win their matchup.
He keeps the safety from playing in the box

[Atomic Orange]

For a while there it looked like AJ might be a HOF WR but now it looks like he will fall on the fringe like Chad unless magic happens and he stays healthy.

[Circleville Guy]

(05-27-2020, 06:24 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: All I know is AJ wins us games. The last time we beat a good team (2018 10-6 Ravens) he had 3 TD’s. We haven’t beaten one since.

I know everyone is dying to sign Warford, but he’s been on the market now for 3 weeks. Does anyone honestly believe AJ would have lasted that long? Even with all the injury concerns I don’t think he would have.

I’m surprised by the tone of this thread. In recent weeks most people seemed to agree with you, the tide seems to be turning a bit. I think all of us hope that he does fantastic but he’s a stock that I would be selling and not buying. Maybe the team feels they owe him a hold season but they’re totally foolish if the extend without seeing him play and stay healthy for at least 8-12 weeks into the season.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-27-2020, 07:30 PM)Circleville Guy Wrote: I’m surprised by the tone of this thread. In recent weeks most people seemed to agree with you, the tide seems to be turning a bit. I think all of us hope that he does fantastic but he’s a stock that I would be selling and not buying. Maybe the team feels they owe him a hold season but they’re totally foolish if the extend without seeing him play and stay healthy for at least 8-12 weeks into the season.

If they can work out an extension that brings his cap hit way down I don’t know that I’d consider that “totally foolish.” I doubt it will happen though (Mixon’s is probably more likely), so we’ll get a season to judge where he’s at health/productivity-wise.

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(05-27-2020, 09:48 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If they can work out an extension that brings his cap hit way down I don’t know that I’d consider that “totally foolish.” I doubt it will happen though (Mixon’s is probably more likely), so we’ll get a season to judge where he’s at health/productivity-wise.

I agree. 

[Whatever]

(05-27-2020, 05:24 PM)Shouldamapads Wrote: Not that I believe any player is worth $18M, but I will say he takes a lot of attention away allowing the others around him to get man coverage and broken coverage.  With all the attention he gets,  he still has very solid stats.

I think the focus needs to be this:


With AJ injured, the team is 21-42-1.

So, count his receiving stats until '17, but count the losses until '19?

Until '17, the Bengals' W-L record without AJ was 18-22-1. 

The big question is, how many games does he actually play this year?

[Circleville Guy]

(05-27-2020, 09:48 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If they can work out an extension that brings his cap hit way down I don’t know that I’d consider that “totally foolish.” I doubt it will happen though (Mixon’s is probably more likely), so we’ll get a season to judge where he’s at health/productivity-wise.

The thing about s AJ will probably want at least 15 million a year for 3 yEd and I think that’s foolish.

[*jason*]

(05-27-2020, 12:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Did you know AJ Green is actually the 2nd highest paid receiver in the NFL this year?  Yup, it's true.

For those that didn't know, the franchise tag is an average of the top 5 highest paid receivers.  This year features Julio Jones at the top with a cap hit of 20.4 mil, followed by a log jam of guys b/t 17.25 and 17.95, thus elevating AJ to #2 spot.  Fwiw, here's is the top 10...

Player         Team           Salary Cap Value Cash Spent

Julio Jones          Falcons            $20,416,668        $22,200,000

A.J. Green          Bengals           $18,171,000        $18,171,000

Mike Evans          Buccaneers      $17,950,000        $16,750,000

Tyreek Hill          Chiefs              $17,740,000        $16,290,000

Sammy Watkins   Chiefs              $17,250,000        $9,000,000

Davante Adams  Packers             $16,475,000         $13,000,000

Alshon Jeffery  Eagles               $15,396,500         $11,500,000

Allen Robinson  Bears                $15,000,000        $13,000,000

Jarvis Landry Browns              $14,550,000        $13,050,000
 
T.Y. Hilton         Colts                  $14,542,000        $14,542,000

Misc Notes: Odell Beckham checks in at #11, with a 14.25 mil hit, and Deandre Hopkins checks in at #14 with a 12.5 mil hit

I just wanted to start this thread to really put into perspective just how much we're paying AJ.  As myself and many others have stated, AJ hasn't really been himself since 2015.  I know a lot of you are hopeful he can return to form this year.  Just for fun, let's see just how good he was in 2015...

He had a fantastic year, with 86 rec, 1,297 yards and 10 TD's.  Good for ranks of:

Yards - 8th
Receptions - 14th
TD's - 10th

So even in a prime AJ season, when he was 5 years younger and prior to injuries, he still didn't crack the top 5 in any category.

Now here we are, at age 32, having missed 50% of his games over the last 3 seasons, AJ Green makes more than every single receiver not named Julio Jones.  Think about that.  Really think about that.

So many of you wanted him, and now you've got him.  I hope he's worth it.

In fairness, AJ played 4-5 games with a bonafide scrub under center in 2015. I can forgive him if he didn't crack top 5 in whatever categories. Just for fun take a look at Antonio Brown's numbers during that same season when Vick and Landry Jones started games. Spoiler alert... He sucked.

[*jason*]

(05-27-2020, 01:39 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here you go:

AJ Green spelled backwards is: Neergja.  Neergja is swahili for "Lion Schlong"

The J in AJ is for Jeremiah. In biblical text, Jeremiah was a Jewish priest who was known as "The Weeping Prophet"

AJ Green went to Georgia. So did actor Kyle Chandler AKA Coach Taylor. Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

AJ Green's favorite band is The Counting Crows.

AJ Green's favorite movie is Revenge of the Nerds II: Nerds in Paradise

AJ Green's favorite meal is a plain hamburger patty with a side of apple sauce.

$100 says AJ Green has no ***** clue what the Counting Crowes is/ are...

[GreenCornBengal]

AJ likes to be low key, is a loyal guy, and his idols are Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

IMO he will do one of the following:
-Get injured, have a bad year and retire like Megatron.
-Have a good year, sign a team friendly deal to stay for 2-3 more years

I don’t see him going anywhere else honestly, just doesn’t seem his style... especially a big market place with lots of publicity. I don’t think he will be chasing the big pay day. He will probably move back to his hometown and love a low profile life after his career how I see it.

For this reason, I think it was OK to pay him the franchise tag money this year. It’s a sign of trust honestly, contrary to “holding him hostage” as a lot of analysts make it sound.

[*SHRacerX*]

We say time and time again that we have to surround Burrow with protection...Yet, how important is it to surround him with weapons as well? If AJ was not franchised and signed elsewhere, the receiving corps has no true #1 and Higgins would be relied upon to come in and make a significant impact in year 1.

Having Green for at least one year will help the offense, and more specifically: Burrow, Higgins, and every other receiving threat that sees less coverage because of the attention placed on Green.

We can argue stats all day long, but the winning % with Green as opposed to without him is nearly 30% greater when he is playing.

I still strongly believe that the Bengals want to sign AJ long term (although right now, Mixon should be a bigger priority) and since there is almost no chance they will be paying Ross next year, that money could be allocated to Green. Your top 3 WRs heading in to 2021 could be Green, Boyd, and Higgins. I really like Auden Tate, and I think he would be a very strong #4.

I can't remember the last first round pick that was drafted by the Bengals that finished his career in Cincy. I am hoping Green accomplishes that feat. If he does what he is capable of for another 4 years, he would have every Bengals record and likely end up in the HOF with Geno Atkins.

It sure would be nice to see a couple more guys in stripes in Canton.

[scorp1974]

(05-27-2020, 01:23 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Good, he is, and I'm not even worried about it.

Are you Yoda?

[fredtoast]

(05-27-2020, 12:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote:  Just for fun, let's see just how good he was in 2015...

He had a fantastic year, with 86 rec, 1,297 yards and 10 TD's.  Good for ranks of:

Yards - 8th
Receptions - 14th
TD's - 10th

So even in a prime AJ season, when he was 5 years younger and prior to injuries, he still didn't crack the top 5 in any category.

 Just for fun look at where the 2015 Bengals ranked in pass attempts.  .  .  .  26th.  Eighth in receiving yards looks much more impressive when you realize how little we threw the ball that year.

Green's numbers have always suffered because he played for a team that did not throw a lot.  Over the 8 seasons Green played for the Bengal ('11-'19) they rank 21st in the league in pass attempts.    Only one time in Green's career have they ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts (12th in '13) and that year Green was 5th in the league in receiving yards per game.  He also ranked 2nd in receiving yards per game in 2016 when the Bengals ranked 20th in pass attempts

I am not going to try and argue that Green is the best receiver of his generation, or that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  But his numbers do not reflect his greatness because he played for e ateam that did not throw a lot.

[Au165]

Kind of misleading because the tag by it's nature makes you one of the highest paid players in the league. That cost comes with the value to a team that it's a one year deal, a deal most players would not take otherwise because they want longer term stability...like AJ wants. The other issue here is there are an unusually large amount of guys who tool cheaper front loaded deals with massive escalators next year. For example Amari Cooper is 12 Million this year and 22 Million next year and Mike Thomas goes from 7 Million this year to 18.8 next year. When guys are on longer term deals they can spread when those larger hits are occurring.

This is more of a straw man argument for some to point to declining production, but the only difference in tagging him and not tagging him is that with the tag we have AJ Green and without it we don't. The current projection of 24 Million with the tag provides plenty of cap to add a good vetern O linemen if we wanted to, but it appears we do not. The current contract only applies to this year so it does not impact re signings of any of our players. The current cap exceeds the amount allowed to be rolled over so we couldn't even push it forward to use next year. There is literally nothing lost by having him here on the tag other than a weird issue with him "not being worth it" when the only thing that money would be doing if not being in AJ's pocket is be sitting in Mike Brown's.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-28-2020, 11:04 AM)fredtoast Wrote:  Just for fun look at where the 2015 Bengals ranked in pass attempts.  .  .  .  26th.  Eighth in receiving yards looks much more impressive when you realize how little we threw the ball that year.

Green's numbers have always suffered because he played for a team that did not throw a lot.  Over the 8 seasons Green played for the Bengal ('11-'19) they rank 21st in the league in pass attempts.    Only one time in Green's career have they ranked in the top half of the league in pass attempts (12th in '13) and that year Green was 5th in the league in receiving yards per game.  He also ranked 2nd in receiving yards per game in 2016 when the Bengals ranked 20th in pass attempts

I am not going to try and argue that Green is the best receiver of his generation, or that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  But his numbers do not reflect his greatness because he played for e ateam that did not throw a lot.

The fact that AJ has never cracked 100 receptions in a season really is crazy to me. Even being Dalton’s favorite target all those years, he could have been used a lot more.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

I find all the hand-wringing and panties in a bunch about AJ's money this year misplaced. Why?

1. We have tons of cap space. Still. If we want Warford, we can get him. One has nothing to do with the other.

2. Some of you act like AJ is 38 or something, he is, what, 32? We were 5-3 when AJ got hurt in 2018. We have won 3 games since. Three. This is a guy you want back. Period. Especially with a rookie QB. Letting him walk would have been beyond stupid. We can keep him for a year (minimum) on the tag and see what he's got. With no significant cap impact this year (we went on a huge FA spree and have $$ left).

3. Now, a multi-year deal for $18 mil per could be an issue. Hand-wringing fully warranted. But I doubt that happens until we can see him in person. And I doubt it will be at that level. He IS 32, and coming off missing 1.5 years.

He is, hands down, the best player we have. The idea that some would have let him walk as we bring Burrow in is just mind blowing to me.

[Whatever]

(05-28-2020, 09:29 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: We say time and time again that we have to surround Burrow with protection...Yet, how important is it to surround him with weapons as well?  If AJ was not franchised and signed elsewhere, the receiving corps has no true #1 and Higgins would be relied upon to come in and make a significant impact in year 1.

Having Green for at least one year will help the offense, and more specifically:  Burrow, Higgins, and every other receiving threat that sees less coverage because of the attention placed on Green.  

We can argue stats all day long, but the winning % with Green as opposed to without him is nearly 30% greater when he is playing.  

I still strongly believe that the Bengals want to sign AJ long term (although right now, Mixon should be a bigger priority) and since there is almost no chance they will be paying Ross next year, that money could be allocated to Green.  Your top 3 WRs heading in to 2021 could be Green, Boyd, and Higgins.  I really like Auden Tate, and I think he would be a very strong #4.  

I can't remember the last first round pick that was drafted by the Bengals that finished his career in Cincy.  I am hoping Green accomplishes that feat.  If he does what he is capable of for another 4 years, he would have every Bengals record and likely end up in the HOF with Geno Atkins.  

It sure would be nice to see a couple more guys in stripes in Canton.

The issue is that just because you didn't tag AJ doesn't necessarily mean you don't get another veteran WR.

For example, Hopkins wound up on the trade block and was dealt for relative peanuts.  The Bengals had interest, but the FT on AJ handcuffed them.  They could have also potentially traded for Diggs, made a run at Amari Cooper, or certainly given Robbie Anderson a better deal than the Panthers gave him.

The W-L record is pretty irrelevant when you consider that the main apprehension with AJ is he misses a ton of games.  We're talking the 2nd highest paid WR here, not a guy that took a prove it deal.  

[Whatever]

(05-28-2020, 11:10 AM)Au165 Wrote: Kind of misleading because the tag by it's nature makes you one of the highest paid players in the league. That cost comes with the value to a team that it's a one year deal, a deal most players would not take otherwise because they want longer term stability...like AJ wants. The other issue here is there are an unusually large amount of guys who tool cheaper front loaded deals with massive escalators next year. For example Amari Cooper  is 12 Million this year and 22 Million next year and Mike Thomas goes from 7 Million this year to 18.8 next year. When guys are on longer term deals they can spread when those larger hits are occurring.

This is more of a straw man argument for some to point to declining production, but the only difference in tagging him and not tagging him is that with the tag we have AJ Green and without it we don't. The current projection of 24 Million with the tag provides plenty of cap to add a good vetern O linemen if we wanted to, but it appears we do not. The current contract only applies to this year so it does not impact re signings of any of our players. The current cap exceeds the amount allowed to be rolled over so we couldn't even push it forward to use next year. There is literally nothing lost by having him here on the tag other than a weird issue with him "not being worth it" when the only thing that money would be doing if not being in AJ's pocket is be sitting in Mike Brown's.

You touch on the big issue.  Without the FT, AJ is gone.  Unless they FT him next year, he's gone.  This team isn't close to being a contender and is in full rebuild mode, so that FT money is much better spent on players that will be here for the long haul to aid that rebuild rather than keeping a death grip on a 32 year old WR that's missed the last 23 games.

There's really nothing to indicate that the Bengals would have just sat on $18 mil and not used it towards extensions or outside players, especially given their FA activity this year.  They had interest in DHop, but AJ's FT handcuffed them.  Given what Houston took for him, I guarantee if we offered our 3rd, they'd have jumped all over it.  

I just get the feeling that the people that support this are doing it more out of affection for AJ than any real logical strategy towards building a winning team.  Hate to say it, but NFL players are all disposable heroes in the grand scheme.  Smart teams try to get out from under a guy before they hit the wall. AJ already seems to have, but people can't let go.  I hope he lights it up, but I expect he'll miss a ton of games.

[fredtoast]

(05-28-2020, 12:15 PM)Whatever Wrote: The issue is that just because you didn't tag AJ doesn't necessarily mean you don't get another veteran WR.

That was my position also.

But the free agent market for WRs was dry as a bone this year.  There was nothing.  And you can't always count on players becoming available through trades.  How could we have known Hopkins would be up for trade when e tagged Green?

So the tag works.  We don't have to commit to a long term deal until we see if he can play and Green gets a huge payday.

[Whatever]

(05-28-2020, 12:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: That was my position also.

But the free agent market for WRs was dry as a bone this year.  There was nothing.  And you can't always count on players becoming available through trades.  How could we have known Hopkins would be up for trade when e tagged Green?

So the tag works.  We don't have to commit to a long term deal until we see if he can play and Green gets a huge payday.

But a team can rescind the FT before the player signs it.  AJ still hasn't signed it.  They just didn't want to pull the tag.