Winning vs. Rushing yards allowed on defense

[*bengalfan74*]

A couple recent threads about defensive stats get me thinking. How does a team winning affect yards given up on D vs. the rush ?

I understand all sorts of things affect these stats and this isn't by any means all inclusive or meant to be a know all end all type of thread. Just a glimpse into some stats.

I mean wow so many things factor in, injuries on both D and even O. One season you play 5 of the top 10 rushers in the NFL, the next 0 or 1. Outdoor stadiums and weather, facing teams with playoffs locked up, your division opponents, facing teams that just don't rush a lot, and on and on. And then the biggie: Generally speaking teams that our winning, their opponents have to pass more because time is running out and they're playing catch up. So obviously your defense is facing fewer rushing plays.

So how does our rush yards allowed stack up vs. winning seasons ? I went back to 05 just to give a larger sample size. These are average per game yards allowed, and of course our record and NFL rank.

05. 11-5 117.6 20th
06. 8-8 116.4 14th
07. 7-9 118.3 21st
08. 4-11-1 120.1 20th
09. 10-6 102.6 8th
10. 4-12 115.2 19th
11. 9-7 109.6 12th
12. 10-6 110.2 14th
13. 11-5 102.4 7th
14. 10-5-1 116.2 20th
15. 12-4 96.7 7th
16. 6-9-1 113.2 21st
17. 7-9 127.9 30th
18. 6-10 137.8 29th
19. 2-14 148.9 32nd

So a couple things stick out to me. 1. Our winning seasons line up pretty well with having decent rush defense stats. The two big anomalies are 05 117 yards allowed per game and 2014 116 yards. In 2011 and 12 we finished in the top half at 12th and 14th. 2. I knew this but it sorta really hit home how big a dive we've taken since 2015.

Just for some comparison only four teams that finished #1 in rush yards allowed during this same span have finished the season at or below .500 06 Vikings 6-10 07 Vikings 8-8 12 Bucs 7-9 19 Bucs 7-9. The bulk of the rest is the very top of the league for a given year, 13-3, 12-4, 11-5 final records.

And the other thing that jumped out at me is just how good the Steelers have been against the run ! They've been in the top 10 every year but 3. 2013, 17, and 19. Nine times they've finished in the top 5.

So what does all this mean ? I don't know, I just found it interesting.

[BengalChris]

One thing that affects this is that opponents tend to run more when they have the lead and throw more when they are behind, particularly in the second half or late in the game depending on how ahead or behind they are.

So, in games where we've led later in games you can expect that opponents will run less.

Now when playing from behind having a good run defense certainly can play a role in winning the game by forcing the opponent, who has a lead, to throw the ball. This is particularly true if you can stop the run on 1st and 2nd down, then they'll go to the air on 3rd.

If a team sucks at defending the run, then, well, their chances of winning decrease. There's less time remaining for their offense and getting run on consistently is generally demoralizing.

Just my thoughts on the subject.

[Au165]

There is a difference between correlation versus causation so you have to be careful with things like this. Lapham always used to spout off a horrible stat about Bengals "win x percentage when they run 25 times or more in a game". What that fails to contextualize is that if you are winning you most likely are running to bleed clock not that necessarily that running put you in that position to win. The inverse is true as well in that if you are winning, and especially by a greater margin, most teams will need to abandon their run to try and catch up. By the other team abandoning their run you have artificially improved your rushing defensive statistics.

Not saying that good run defense isn't tied to team success, but we have to go a lot deeper into situational stats and other stats that are adjusted for game situations to know if it a circumstance of being up versus simply good defense.

[*bengalfan74*]

(06-08-2020, 01:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a difference between correlation versus causation so you have to be careful with things like this. Lapham always used to spout off a horrible stat about Bengals "win x percentage when they run 25 times or more in a game". What that fails to contextualize is that if you are winning you most likely are running to bleed clock not that necessarily that running put you in that position to win. The inverse is true as well in that if you are winning, and especially by a greater margin, most teams will need to abandon their run to try and catch up. By the other team abandoning their run you have artificially improved your rushing defensive statistics. 

Not saying that good run defense isn't tied to team success, but we have to go a lot deeper into situational stats and other stats that are adjusted for game situations to know if it a circumstance of being up versus simply good defense.

That's pretty much what I was getting at. And I understand it would take a lot more research to get anything definitive. More than I'm willing to do, haha.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-08-2020, 12:24 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: A couple recent threads about defensive stats get me thinking. How does a team winning affect yards given up on D vs. the rush ?

I understand all sorts of things affect these stats and this isn't by any means all inclusive or meant to be a know all end all type of thread. Just a glimpse into some stats.

I mean wow so many things factor in, injuries on both D and even O. One season you play 5 of the top 10 rushers in the NFL, the next 0 or 1. Outdoor stadiums and weather, facing teams with playoffs locked up, your division opponents, facing teams that just don't rush a lot, and on and on. And then the biggie: Generally speaking teams that our winning, their opponents have to pass more because time is running out and they're playing catch up. So obviously your defense is facing fewer rushing plays.

So how does our rush yards allowed stack up vs. winning seasons ? I went back to 05 just to give a larger sample size. These are average per game yards allowed, and of course our record and NFL rank.

05. 11-5 117.6 20th
06. 8-8 116.4 14th
07. 7-9 118.3 21st
08. 4-11-1 120.1 20th
09. 10-6 102.6 8th
10. 4-12 115.2 19th
11. 9-7 109.6 12th
12. 10-6 110.2 14th
13. 11-5 102.4 7th
14. 10-5-1 116.2 20th
15. 12-4 96.7 7th
16. 6-9-1 113.2 21st
17. 7-9 127.9 30th
18. 6-10 137.8 29th
19. 2-14 148.9 32nd

So a couple things stick out to me. 1. Our winning seasons line up pretty well with having decent rush defense stats. The two big anomalies are 05 117 yards allowed per game and 2014 116 yards. In 2011 and 12 we finished in the top half at 12th and 14th. 2. I knew this but it sorta really hit home how big a dive we've taken since 2015.

Just for some comparison only four teams that finished #1 in rush yards allowed during this same span have finished the season at or below .500 06 Vikings 6-10 07 Vikings 8-8 12 Bucs 7-9 19 Bucs 7-9. The bulk of the rest is the very top of the league for a given year, 13-3, 12-4, 11-5 final records.

And the other thing that jumped out at me is just how good the Steelers have been against the run ! They've been in the top 10 every year but 3. 2013, 17, and 19. Nine times they've finished in the top 5.

So what does all this mean ? I don't know, I just found it interesting.

Cannot get ran all over and win, or at least it sure makes it really hard to win. You did a lot of homework here BF74, reps.

This really hits home with the Offseason we just had concentrating on this very thing. Stopping the run and tackling better.

[*Nately120*]

(06-08-2020, 01:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a difference between correlation versus causation so you have to be careful with things like this. Lapham always used to spout off a horrible stat about Bengals "win x percentage when they run 25 times or more in a game". What that fails to contextualize is that if you are winning you most likely are running to bleed clock not that necessarily that running put you in that position to win. The inverse is true as well in that if you are winning, and especially by a greater margin, most teams will need to abandon their run to try and catch up. By the other team abandoning their run you have artificially improved your rushing defensive statistics.

Not saying that good run defense isn't tied to team success, but we have to go a lot deeper into situational stats and other stats that are adjusted for game situations to know if it a circumstance of being up versus simply good defense.

Can you believe it was only 5 years ago when we were sitting here talking about how giving the ball to Jeremy Hill 30+ times per game was going to turn this franchise around?

[WhodeyRay]

(06-08-2020, 04:18 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Can you believe it was only 5 years ago when we were sitting here talking about how giving the ball to Jeremy Hill 30+ times per game was going to turn this franchise around?

It is hard to believe how quick things changed. But I think now would be a great time to do a hybrid type attack with a old school moose Johnston or Tom Rathman attack. A fullback that can catch like a TE and also blows up linebackers. Think about the hole created with a fullback on one of these 225lb linebackers these days and the play action it would create in the passing game when they have to then put in a heavy lineup to stop it.

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-08-2020, 12:24 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: A couple recent threads about defensive stats get me thinking. How does a team winning affect yards given up on D vs. the rush ?

I understand all sorts of things affect these stats and this isn't by any means all inclusive or meant to be a know all end all type of thread. Just a glimpse into some stats.

I mean wow so many things factor in, injuries on both D and even O. One season you play 5 of the top 10 rushers in the NFL, the next 0 or 1. Outdoor stadiums and weather, facing teams with playoffs locked up, your division opponents, facing teams that just don't rush a lot, and on and on. And then the biggie: Generally speaking teams that our winning, their opponents have to pass more because time is running out and they're playing catch up. So obviously your defense is facing fewer rushing plays.

So how does our rush yards allowed stack up vs. winning seasons ? I went back to 05 just to give a larger sample size. These are average per game yards allowed, and of course our record and NFL rank.

05. 11-5 117.6 20th
06. 8-8 116.4 14th
07. 7-9 118.3 21st
08. 4-11-1 120.1 20th
09. 10-6 102.6 8th
10. 4-12 115.2 19th
11. 9-7 109.6 12th
12. 10-6 110.2 14th
13. 11-5 102.4 7th
14. 10-5-1 116.2 20th
15. 12-4 96.7 7th
16. 6-9-1 113.2 21st
17. 7-9 127.9 30th
18. 6-10 137.8 29th
19. 2-14 148.9 32nd

So a couple things stick out to me. 1. Our winning seasons line up pretty well with having decent rush defense stats. The two big anomalies are 05 117 yards allowed per game and 2014 116 yards. In 2011 and 12 we finished in the top half at 12th and 14th. 2. I knew this but it sorta really hit home how big a dive we've taken since 2015.

Just for some comparison only four teams that finished #1 in rush yards allowed during this same span have finished the season at or below .500 06 Vikings 6-10 07 Vikings 8-8 12 Bucs 7-9 19 Bucs 7-9. The bulk of the rest is the very top of the league for a given year, 13-3, 12-4, 11-5 final records.

Even though the defense shined in 2015 vs. the run, I attribute some of that to the fact that the Bengal's offense was such a power.  You can see a trend after 2013 where the defense declined in terms of rush defense.  2013 was the final year for Mike Zimmer in Cincinnati.  

And the other thing that jumped out at me is just how good the Steelers have been against the run ! They've been in the top 10 every year but 3. 2013, 17, and 19. Nine times they've finished in the top 5.

So what does all this mean ? I don't know, I just found it interesting.

It is very interesting....

A couple things that I correlate to the decline in run defense:

Domata Peko.  Probably one of the most underappreciated Bengals of all time.  Dude ate up a ton of snaps and helped clog the middle.  Didn't offer a ton of pass rush, but could move laterally very well for a big man and help stuff the run.  His last year in Cincinnati was 2016.  This actually excites me because I could see an even bigger impact with DJ Reader.  

Although the 2015 rush defense was rated pretty high, I would call that a bit of an outlier due in part to the balanced and very productive offense.  You can see a decline after the 2013 season as well.  Aside from the aforementioned outlier (2015), the defense had a string of really solid rush defense rankings for roughly five years.  2013 was the last year we had Mike Zimmer as DC.

I don't have much of an opinion of Lou Anarumo as of yet, but I am much happier that we have Al Golden as LB coach compared to Jim Haslett the prior year.  I didn't go back and pull up a ton of stats, but Golden's teams have usually had tough defenses.  His college coaching background should help him in working with a very young LB room as well.  

More optimism.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(06-08-2020, 01:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a difference between correlation versus causation so you have to be careful with things like this. Lapham always used to spout off a horrible stat about Bengals "win x percentage when they run 25 times or more in a game". What that fails to contextualize is that if you are winning you most likely are running to bleed clock not that necessarily that running put you in that position to win. The inverse is true as well in that if you are winning, and especially by a greater margin, most teams will need to abandon their run to try and catch up. By the other team abandoning their run you have artificially improved your rushing defensive statistics.

Not saying that good run defense isn't tied to team success, but we have to go a lot deeper into situational stats and other stats that are adjusted for game situations to know if it a circumstance of being up versus simply good defense.

This is what happened in 2015.  The Bengal's offense was balanced and was rolling.

The same thing can be said about the Bengal's pass defense in 2019.  Teams didn't have to pass the ball.  Running it was working, and was lower risk...even with our LB corps.  They finished 22nd against the pass, but that ranking just shows how poor they were at stopping the run.

I often talk about "balance" as it relates to an offense.  It isn't intended to say that you need to have even snaps of rushes or passes, as we know some teams passes are just extensions of their rushing attack.  However, this stat really popped out to me:

In 2019, the Bengal's opponents rushed the ball 504 times, while the Bengals rushed the ball only 385 times. 

The same year, the Bengal's opponents threw the ball 499 times, while the Bengals threw the ball 616 times. 

Now before you dismiss this as simply "being behind", the Bengals didn't trail as much the first week in Seattle and had a very lopsided run/pass mix (51 vs 19).  One thing that I was actually impressed by our coaching staff last year was they seemed to change the rushing attack scheme and become more balanced down the stretch as Mixon really took off.  That gives me more hope for this season.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(06-09-2020, 09:11 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: It is very interesting....

A couple things that I correlate to the decline in run defense:

Domata Peko.  Probably one of the most underappreciated Bengals of all time.  Dude ate up a ton of snaps and helped clog the middle.  Didn't offer a ton of pass rush, but could move laterally very well for a big man and help stuff the run.  His last year in Cincinnati was 2016.  This actually excites me because I could see an even bigger impact with DJ Reader.  

Although the 2015 rush defense was rated pretty high, I would call that a bit of an outlier due in part to the balanced and very productive offense.  You can see a decline after the 2013 season as well.  Aside from the aforementioned outlier (2015), the defense had a string of really solid rush defense rankings for roughly five years.  2013 was the last year we had Mike Zimmer as DC.

I don't have much of an opinion of Lou Anarumo as of yet, but I am much happier that we have Al Golden as LB coach compared to Jim Haslett the prior year.  I didn't go back and pull up a ton of stats, but Golden's teams have usually had tough defenses.  His college coaching background should help him in working with a very young LB room as well.  

More optimism.  

I was known as a Peko hater cause I wanted a DT that was not a one trick pony that could also rush the passer but I cannot
deny that he was a good run stopper and helped out the entire Defense. The thing is, Reader is the type of DT/NT I wanted.
Thought Billings could of became this for us but Reader is already there.

Also Tem Lukabu (spelling) was our LB coach last season and yeah Haslett was terrible.

Also liking the Golden pick up, cannot wait to see what he does with all these talented young LB's. Pratt, Wilson, ADG, Bailey,
loved all these guys before we drafted them. Also I think Bynes could really help these guys out as well to adapt to the NFL.
Bynes is smart with tons of experience.

[Essex Johnson]

(06-08-2020, 01:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a difference between correlation versus causation so you have to be careful with things like this. Lapham always used to spout off a horrible stat about Bengals "win x percentage when they run 25 times or more in a game". What that fails to contextualize is that if you are winning you most likely are running to bleed clock not that necessarily that running put you in that position to win. The inverse is true as well in that if you are winning, and especially by a greater margin, most teams will need to abandon their run to try and catch up. By the other team abandoning their run you have artificially improved your rushing defensive statistics.

Not saying that good run defense isn't tied to team success, but we have to go a lot deeper into situational stats and other stats that are adjusted for game situations to know if it a circumstance of being up versus simply good defense.

I am not sure i totally buy your causation also.. since a team could be winning because they are able to gain first downs rushing. which also can accout for rushing 25 times or more.. and in most NFL games a team is normally within 1 to 2 scores going into 4th quarter so it is usually not till late in the game a team winning just abandons the passing game.  Another theory is if you are stopping the run you are mostly giving your team more possessions which can give you a better percentage of scoring..