A step up and a step back

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-02-2020, 02:00 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Let these numbers sink in for a moment

Joe Mixon rushing through first 7 fames last year (almost half of season)... 36.3 yards per game, 3.0 yards per carry, zero tds.

Let these numbers sink in a bit:

Not a single time during the first half of the season was Mixon given even 20 carries in a game. Zero. Not once. And twice it was only single digits. The closest was against Arizona with 19 and Mixon had almost 100 yds and that game was tied for our closest loss of the season. Yes we were constantly playing from behind in most games because both our QB and defense were horrendous, but those are ridiculous numbers as far as usage of your featured RB. All athletes need to get into a rhythm, and giving someone the ball 6 or 8x in a game sure as he’ll isn’t going to help do that. It’s amazing that once we starting giving Mixon the ball more he started producing isn’t it...

Anyway, my point still stands. It’s silly to pick Mixon as a “step up” player for this thread. He’s already a top 10 RB, and ended up with decent numbers on the season last year (you know...since you have to actually look at all 16 games). He might have an even better season this year now that teams will actually have to respect our QB, but that’s not a “step up” type player who suddenly starts producing at a high level. He’s already done that.

[fredtoast]

(07-02-2020, 02:48 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Let these numbers sink in a bit:

Not a single time during the first half of the season was Mixon given even 20 carries in a game. Zero. Not once. And twice it was only single digits. The closest was against Arizona with 19 and Mixon had almost 100 yds and that game was tied for our closest loss of the season. Yes we were constantly playing from behind in most games because both our QB and defense were horrendous, but those are ridiculous numbers as far as usage of your featured RB. All athletes need to get into a rhythm, and giving someone the ball 6 or 8x in a game sure as he’ll isn’t going to help do that. It’s amazing that once we starting giving Mixon the ball more he started producing isn’t it...

His increase in production and effectiveness had nothing to do with the number of carries.  The second half of the season he was effective running the ball early in the games before he got a lot of carries.  That would not have been true if he just needed to "get into a rhythm" by getting more carries in a game.

every team or individual player that I have ever seen have a lot of success running the ball could run the ball early in the game.  There was never any requirement of a certain number of carries before they started getting effective.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-02-2020, 10:11 AM)fredtoast Wrote: His increase in production and effectiveness had nothing to do with the number of carries.  The second half of the season he was effective running the ball early in the games before he got a lot of carries.  That would not have been true if he just needed to "get into a rhythm" by getting more carries in a game.

every team or individual player that I have ever seen have a lot of success running the ball could run the ball early in the game.  There was never any requirement of a certain number of carries before they started getting effective.

You also clearly cherry picked the 7 game sample because that 7th game (which was the horrible 2 yds vs JAX) really killed his numbers.

Typical Fred.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Also, he did at least have a couple TD’s receiving in your cherry picked 7 games. But why include that right...

[fredtoast]

(07-02-2020, 10:49 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You also clearly cherry picked the 7 game sample because that 7th game (which was the horrible 2 yds vs JAX) really killed his numbers.

Typical Fred.

Okay then make it his first EIGHT GAMES instead of seven.

Now check out these awesome numbers...... 40 yards per game, 3.2 per carry, zero rushing tds.

And compare them to the numbers over the last eight games after they changed the blocking scheme over the two week bye break.

102 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, 5 rushing tds.


So please continue your argument about how the poor blocking did not effect Mixon's production in 2019.  And maybe this time say something about Mixon's actual production instead of just taking a shot at me.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-02-2020, 11:56 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Okay then make it his first EIGHT GAMES instead of seven.

Now check out these awesome numbers...... 40 yards per game, 3.2 per carry, zero rushing tds.

And compare them to the numbers over the last eight games after they changed the blocking scheme over the two week bye break.

102 yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry, 5 rushing tds.


So please continue your argument about how the poor blocking did not effect Mixon's production in 2019.  And maybe this time say something about Mixon's actual production instead of just taking a shot at me.

I never said the blocking didn’t improve. My original post I merely stated I didn’t think AJ or Mixon were good answers for this thread. The former would be a comeback player, and the latter has arguably been our best offensive player (if not best overall) for the last 2 seasons.

[BengalChris]

(07-02-2020, 09:09 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I never said the blocking didn’t improve. My original post I merely stated I didn’t think AJ or Mixon were good answers for this thread. The former would be a comeback player, and the latter has arguably been our best offensive player (if not best overall) for the last 2 seasons.

The question was who will make the most improvement. Comeback or not, when it comes to stats it could easily be AJ.

I'm with Fred on this one. I thought of Mixon because of those first half awful games. Of course, the play calling was dismally horrible. Stat wise again, Mixon could be the guy. He'll get most of the carries and I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 1500+ yards.

 

[motoarch]

(07-02-2020, 09:09 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I never said the blocking didn’t improve. My original post I merely stated I didn’t think AJ or Mixon were good answers for this thread. The former would be a comeback player, and the latter has arguably been our best offensive player (if not best overall) for the last 2 seasons.

Just let him be wrong and move on.  He's not worth a responding to unless it's to troll him.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-03-2020, 09:18 PM)BengalChris Wrote: The question was who will make the most improvement. Comeback or not, when it comes to stats it could easily be AJ.

I'm with Fred on this one. I thought of Mixon because of those first half awful games. Of course, the play calling was dismally horrible. Stat wise again, Mixon could be the guy. He'll get most of the carries and I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 1500+ yards.

 

That’s pretty unrealistic, imo. I love Mixon, but he’s not Henry, and he doesn’t have the Cowboys OL like Zeke.

[BengalChris]

(07-03-2020, 10:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s pretty unrealistic, imo. I love Mixon, but he’s not Henry, and he doesn’t have the Cowboys OL like Zeke.

With a rookie QB Mixon could be the man.

[ezekiel23]

Step up:WJIII
Step down:Geno Atkins

[fredtoast]

(07-03-2020, 09:18 PM)BengalChris Wrote: He'll get most of the carries and I wouldn't be surprised if he puts up 1500+ yards.

 

(07-03-2020, 10:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That’s pretty unrealistic, imo. I love Mixon, but he’s not Henry, and he doesn’t have the Cowboys OL like Zeke.

Not unrealistic at all.  If he just matches what he did over the second half of last year he will gain over 1600 yards.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-01-2020, 05:46 PM)JSR18 Wrote: Yeah, I can't see spending money on FAs and then benching them. If I'm WJIII, I'm looking over my shoulder every play...

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

WJ3 better step up and play much more consistent and catch the ball if it comes his way.

Cause one thing we have noticed with Phillips is he catches the ball.

[BleedOnB]

(06-28-2020, 11:10 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Does Jonah Williams really count as a "step up" player since he did not play at alllast year?  If so then there is no contest in that catagory.

If Jonal does not count then I would pick Lawson, BUT I have serious doubts about his durability.

So my choice is Germain Pratt. What jumped out to me from last year was his consistent development over the season.  He barely played the first half of the year with only 101 snaps on defense (app 20%) and never more than 38% of the defensive snaps in any game.  Then in game #9 against Baltimore he played 50% of the defensive snaps, and Preston Brown was immediately released.  Pratt still did not play more than 68% of the snaps until the final 4 games.  Then he played over 70% in 3 of them.  Here is how his season broke down


Game..snaps...tkl...solo..asst..blitz..TFL
1-4 ........ 25... 4..... 1..... 3..... 1..... 0
5-8 ........ 76...12.... 9..... 3..... 6..... 0
9-12.......148...22...14..... 8..... 7..... 0
13-16.....187...34...23.....11....14..... 4

Project that last quarter of the season over a full 16 games and you get 136 tackles and 16 tackle for loss.  That would be an awesome year from any of our LBs.

I know 4 games is a very small sample size, but those numbers were not just a fluke spike in production.  Instead you can track consistent improvement throughout the entire season.

Gotta say I agree with you Fred. Pratt is my main guy I think we are going to see Darius Leonard-like numbers from this season. I think he will play 70% of the snaps all season and this guy will bolster the middle of our defense. Im really excited to see him play this year.

I do also agree some people are basing "step back" too much off of productivity lost due to health of players around them. I would say Bobby Hart but let's be honest, how much worse can he get. I do think we could start to see Dunlap or Geno begin to step back just due to age and wear & tear. I hope I'm wrong about this but I dont think too many other guys are going to step back in play.

[JSR18]

(07-07-2020, 05:34 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: WJ3 better step up and play much more consistent and catch the ball if it comes his way.

Cause one thing we have noticed with Phillips is he catches the ball.

 He seems to have a knack for playing the ball and good hands. If he gets more snaps this season he could get 6-8 picks...

[Sled21]

(07-04-2020, 01:18 AM)ezekiel23 Wrote: Step up:WJIII
Step down:Geno Atkins

I'm going to have to rank that Step Down choice as the worst of the lot. Geno, really? With DJ Reader playing beside him? Geno is going to have a monster season.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(07-09-2020, 02:37 PM)JSR18 Wrote:  He seems to have a knack for playing the ball and good hands. If he gets more snaps this season he could get 6-8 picks...

With the little amount of snaps Phillips has had and putting up 4 ints, that could very well be the case.

Dude is a ballhawk. I was speaking of WJ3 but after what Waynes said he might be the guy needing to watch his ass.

(07-09-2020, 02:58 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I'm going to have to rank that Step Down choice as the worst of the lot. Geno, really? With DJ Reader playing beside him? Geno is going to have a monster season.

Thinking so myself. Geno has never had a DT like Reader playing next to him.

[Tony]

(06-28-2020, 12:18 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Step Up:  Billy Price.  

I feel like Price will be healthy for the first time in his career at the start of camp and will wrestle away the starting RG position from the projected starter, XSF.  Maybe this is an emotional pick because I want the guy to pan out, but I hope he shows why he was taken in the first round.

Step Back:  Auden Tate.  

I love the guy, but I don't know how much action he will see with Ross, Green, Boyd, and Higgins likely on the field before him.  I sure like the guy as our 4th or 5th best receiver, but wonder how many opportunities he will have.

[Tony]

(06-28-2020, 12:18 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Step Up:  Billy Price.  

I feel like Price will be healthy for the first time in his career at the start of camp and will wrestle away the starting RG position from the projected starter, XSF.  Maybe this is an emotional pick because I want the guy to pan out, but I hope he shows why he was taken in the first round.

Step Back:  Auden Tate.  

I love the guy, but I don't know how much action he will see with Ross, Green, Boyd, and Higgins likely on the field before him.  I sure like the guy as our 4th or 5th best receiver, but wonder how many opportunities he will have.

Billy Price can't get any worse.. He has been awful.. Up Jon Ross . BACK Bobby Fart..