Is the Henry deal enough for Mixon?

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Idk, I just saw a pretty crazy stat in an Athletic article about AJ Green:


Bengals with AJ (66-44-1)

Bengals without AJ (7-25-1)


Sure seems like he’s carried us to me...

It is not that simple.  For example look at 2016

Bengals with AJ..........3-6-1
Bengals without AJ.....3-3-0


I am NOT saying that the Bengals are not a better team with AJ,  but clearly he was not "carrying" the team.

[Whatever]

(07-17-2020, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Idk, I just saw a pretty crazy stat in an Athletic article about AJ Green:


Bengals with AJ (66-44-1)

Bengals without AJ (7-25-1)


Sure seems like he’s carried us to me...

Thing is, AJ started missing games around the time our OL started falling apart.  

[3wt]

(07-16-2020, 02:51 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Why? Like Fred said he is only making 1.2 million this year. Why not take anything from 8 mil up which would be fair considering 
his numbers and Henry's numbers who are far superior, especially in the TD department. If Mixon doesn't sign he gets nothing 
under the new CBA. Makes no sense for Mixon to not sign IMO.

I definitely agree with you and Fred that it makes the most sense for him to do.   I believe they'll offer him maybe $8 mil a year and he'll reject it.   I think $10 mil will be his floor.

I'm hoping he sees the light here.   I could see the Bengals going $8 mil a year - which would be generous for a second contract.  

But I fear that so often with people what they ask for is relative to what's been given.   And we now have 2 backs with exorbitant contracts for him to compare the offer to.  Pride plays a big part in players' expectations and demands.  Hopefully reason will reign here.

The thing that brings me hope is what others have mentioned about the glut of RB contracts coming up in 2021 and a strong possibility of a salary cap revision.  If I'm his agent I'd be pushing Joe to sign the first realistic offer he gets.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

There are only 5 RBs in the league making at least $10m/yr right now.

2 of those 5 turned out to be instant disasters (Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson)

1 of those 5 just happened this offseason and is a RB who is also a 1,000 yard receiver.

- - - - - - - - - - -

Anything over $5m/yr would put Mixon in Top-12 territory. Let him walk if he wants more than $5m/yr. Already have a bad RB contract in Gio on the books.

Let Mixon walk next offseason and just draft a RB.


All Qualified RBs Who Averaged 4.5+ YPC in 2019 (Draft Round)
Raheem Mostert (UDFA)
Gus Edwards (UDFA)
Devin Singletary (3rd)
Derrick Henry (2nd)
Matt Breida (UDFA)
Mark Ingram (1st)
Nick Chubb (2nd)
Christian McCaffrey (1st)
Kenyan Drake (3rd)
Josh Jacobs (1st)
Alvin Kamara (3rd)
Saquon Barkley (1st)
Alexander Mattison (3rd)
LeSean McCoy (2nd)
Aaron Jones (5th)
Miles Sanders (2nd)
Dalvin Cook (2nd)
Phillip Lindsay (UDFA)
Ezekiel Elliott (1st)
Damien Williams (UDFA)

That's right, there were as many UDFA RBs who ran for 4.5+ YPC than 1st rounders last year. 5 a piece. RBs can be found anywhere in the draft (or after the draft). Use a 3rd rounder next year and snag a promising looking UDFA and just move on without spending 1/20th (or more) of the cap space on the most interchangeable roster spot in football.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-16-2020, 01:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Feel the same, love Mixon but his numbers he has put up put him around the 9 mil per year category.

Mixon hasn't been able to finish like Henry has either when he pops a big run. Needs to get it into the End Zone.

0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards in 693 carries.

Just doesn't have it in him to take it to the house. Either an issue of vision or final gear, don't know, but it's too big of a sample size now to be a fluke.

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 03:35 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: That's right, there were as many UDFA RBs who ran for 4.5+ YPC than 1st rounders last year. 5 a piece. RBs can be found anywhere in the draft (or after the draft). 

Again this is like listing 10 lottery winners and then claiming lottery tickets are a good investment.

There are as many UDFA as first round picks because there have been HUNDREDS of more UDFAs than first round picks.  You can't just look at the few success and ignore the hundreds of failures.

The fact is that over the last decade (2010-2019) there were 217 RBs drafted after the first round and only 14 of them rushed for more yards in their career than Mixon has after just three seasons (2931).  And those 14 include guys like Giovani Bernard and Bilal Powell who never rushed for as much as 800 yards in a season.

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 03:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: 0 rushing TDs of 20+ yards in 693 carries.

Just doesn't have it in him to take it to the house. Either an issue of vision or final gear, don't know, but it's too big of a sample size now to be a fluke.

In 2018 Saquan Barkley was the only RB in the league with more runs of 20+ yards than Mixon.  Barkley and Nick Chubb were the only RBs with more runs of 40+ yards.

So Mixon actually has the ability to break off more long runs than most other RBs in the league.  He just has not gotten those runs when he was within 20 yards of the end zone.  It has nothing to do with ability or else other RBs would be getting a lot more long runs.  It is just a statistical fluke.

[Destro]

Henry and Mixon are NFL running backs and that is the bulk of the comparisons. Henry's pay day wouldn't sway me if I was offering a contract to Mixon.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2020, 04:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Again this is like listing 10 lottery winners and then claiming lottery tickets are a good investment.

There are as many UDFA as first round picks because there have been HUNDREDS of more UDFAs than first round picks.  You can't just look at the few success and ignore the hundreds of failures.

The fact is that over the last decade (2010-2019) there were 217 RBs drafted after the first round and only 14 of them rushed for more yards in their career than Mixon has after just three seasons (2931).  And those 14 include guys like Giovani Bernard and Bilal Powell who never rushed for as much as 800 yards in a season.

It's really not anything like the lottery at all, Fred, but keep saying it and I am sure it'll be true eventually.

Total rushing yards is a worthless stat without any context:
Jeremy Hill rushed for 2,757 yards in his first 3 seasons.
Joe Mixon rushed for 2,931 yards in his first 3 seasons.

Nobody was saying in the 2016-2017 offseason that Hill should be getting a $7m+/yr extension.

Also, LOL... from 2010-2019... so you're including 2 years of drafts that haven't even played as long as Mixon to make your argument. "This guy drafted in 2019 hasn't gotten as many yards in 1 year as Mixon did in 3!" Seriously Fred?

(07-17-2020, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2018 Saquan Barkley was the only RB in the league with more runs of 20+ yards than Mixon.  Barkley and Nick Chubb were the only RBs with more runs of 40+ yards.

So Mixon actually has the ability to break off more long runs than most other RBs in the league.  He just has not gotten those runs when he was within 20 yards of the end zone.  It has nothing to do with ability or else other RBs would be getting a lot more long runs.  It is just a statistical fluke.

Except he's finished 0 of those runs for TDs, which is what he and I were both talking about. It's not a statistical fluke when he's at 693 carries and 0 of them have been even 20+ yard TDs. That's a proper sample size.

You also conveniently (in typical Fred fashion) neglected to mention that in the other 2 years he's played combined he has exactly 1 rush of 40+ yards (and only 8 of 20+ yards). 2018 was the outlier thus far and even then he couldn't finish those runs for TDs.

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 05:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's really not anything like the lottery at all, Fred, but keep saying it and I am sure it'll be true eventually.

Look, responding with nothing but "your wrong" prove nothing.

Here is a list of the 228 UDFA RBs who entered the league since 2008 and played at least 1 game.  I hope you will agree with me thatb there have been many more UDFA signed by NFL teams that never made a roster.  In fact only a small percentage of all UDFA signed ever play an NFL game. But of the 228 that played a game only one (Arian Foster) had more yards gained than Mixon over his first three seasons.

And, again, if you think yards gained doesn't mean anything then use whatever "context" you want to show how many of them were better than MIxon.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2008&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=3&undrafted=Y&pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2020&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=g&c1comp=gt&c1val=1&c5val=1.0&order_by=rush_yds

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 05:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Also, LOL... from 2010-2019... so you're including 2 years of drafts that haven't even played as long as Mixon to make your argument. "This guy drafted in 2019 hasn't gotten as many yards in 1 year as Mixon did in 3!" Seriously Fred?

Oh wow, you really burned me with that one.  Let me show what the correct comparison yields.

Ten years of drafts from 2008 through 2017.

!74 Rbs drafted after the first round.  Only 7 of them gained more yards than mixon in the first three years of their career.

(07-17-2020, 05:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Total rushing yards is a worthless stat without any context:
Jeremy Hill rushed for 2,757 yards in his first 3 seasons.
Joe Mixon rushed for 2,931 yards in his first 3 seasons.

Okay then let's use any "context" you choose.  How many of the 174 RBs drafted after the first round in the ten years from '08-'17 were better than MIxon over the first three years of their career.
here is the list.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&draft=1&year_min=2008&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=3&undrafted=N&pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_year_min=2008&draft_year_max=2017&draft_round_min=2&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&c5val=1.0&order_by=rush_yds

Show me exactly how "easy" it is to find a RB "anywhere" in the draft.  Except you can't ignore all the failures when talking about the good ones.

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 05:25 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except he's finished 0 of those runs for TDs, which is what he and I were both talking about. It's not a statistical fluke when he's at 693 carries and 0 of them have been even 20+ yard TDs. That's a proper sample size.

Then answer this question.

Would you rather have a RB who had 2 runs of 20+ yards and one went for a td or a RB who had 11 runs of over 20 yards but none of them going for tds?

You are basically saying that the line of scrimmage where the play starts determines who is the better RB.  That makes no sense at all to me.  A RBs ability to break off long runs is based on how many long runs he has.  Not how many of them went for tds.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-17-2020, 06:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Ten years of drafts from 2008 through 2017.

!74 Rbs drafted after the first round.  Only 7 of them gained more yards than mixon in the first three years of their career.

Honestly a serious question I've been meaning to ask for quite some time, and would love an answer:  How are you able to pull stats from such a large window seemingly so quickly?

I'm not sure how I would even approach finding these numbers, short of going through each draft and then individually accounting each and every running back drafted after round 1.  Then I have to go through each and every one of those and tally up their totals.  This would take forever.

I swear you must use some site I'm not even aware of, that lets you filter all sorts of categories.

[fredtoast]

(07-17-2020, 07:07 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Honestly a serious question I've been meaning to ask for quite some time, and would love an answer:  How are you able to pull stats from such a large window seemingly so quickly?

I'm not sure how I would even approach finding these numbers, short of going through each draft and then individually accounting each and every running back drafted after round 1.  Then I have to go through each and every one of those and tally up their totals.  This would take forever.

I swear you must use some site I'm not even aware of, that lets you filter all sorts of categories.

Profootballreference.com has an awesome search engine that can pull up all sorts of individual and team stats

It is the "play index" tab.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-17-2020, 06:22 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Show me exactly how "easy" it is to find a RB "anywhere" in the draft.  Except you can't ignore all the failures when talking about the good ones.

If you look at recent years the league is scattered with guys that have produced that were taken later in the draft.  Just because they're first 3 years don't exceed Mixon's doesn't make it not true.  You're using a specific measurement of success, which almost immediately removes guy that didn't see bigger roles immediately.  But that doesn't necessarily make them less than.

Examples:

Chris Carson - More yards, more TD's and a higher YPC than Mixon over the last two seasons. --- 7th round

Kareem Hunt - Higher Career high in yards, higher YPC, same amount of TD's despite missing an entire season's worth of games --- 3rd round

Aaron Jones - 28 TD's to Mixon's 17, higher YPC, 1,087 yards last year with 16 TD's. --- 5th round

Alvin Kamara - 27 TD's to Mixon's 17, higher YPC, more than DOUBLE the receptions and rec yards.  --- 3rd round


Nick Chubb - Coming off 1,494 yard seaason, only 400 yards and 1 TD less than Mixon despite being in year 2 --- 2nd round

Dalvin Cook - 1,135 yards in only 14 games, higher YPC, more rec and rec yards. --- 2nd round


Marlon Mack - 2,100 yards over last two season, more TD's higher YPC -- 4th round

Devonta Freeman - Starting in year 2 he went on a 3 year run of over 3,000 yards with 29 TD's, both higher than Mixon. More rec and rec yards --- 4th round

Phillip Lindsay (through 2 seasons) 2,048 yards 16 TD's and 4.9 YPC. (All higher than Joe's first 2 years) - Undrafted

Lamar Miller - Didn't start until year 2. Years 2-4 mirror Mixon's years 1-3. Another good value. 4th round


Jordan Howard -First 3 years more yards, and more TD's than Mixon. Another good value. 5th round

David Johnson - 1,239 yarda and 16 TD's in year 2 to with 80 receptions and 879 receiving yards. (Injury stalled career.) - Round 3


James Connor - Didn't start until year 2. 973 yards and 12 TD's in onky 12 starts in year 2. - 3rd round

Now, in case anyone thinks I'm saying that all of these guys are better than Mixon, I'm not.  That's not the point of this post.  It's mainly to illustrate how certain players can be immediately removed from the conversation using Fred's critera (1st 3 years).

Every single one of these guys had less carries than Mixon over their first 3 years.  Most saw limited action in year 1.  Some missed significant time.  Some were in backfields by committee early on before winning the job.

You can't just dismiss players of this caliber because they had less yards though their first 3 seasons.  Just as you can't say they're not all perfect examples of guys found outside the 1st round.  These guys are or were all studs, and are great examples of value to be had at the position.  They can't be ignored when having a conversation about later round talent.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-17-2020, 07:23 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Profootballreference.com has an awesome search engine that can pull up all sorts of individual and team stats

It is the "play index" tab.

Good to know. Thank you!

[jj22]

Mixon is one of the core. One of the best talents on the team. Pay him. If you give money to unknown free agents you have to take care of the core too. We got Boyd for a couple more years. Mixon is next.

I'd give him the contract. He'll have a monster year with Burrow utilizing rb's and between him and Boyd what (Burrow) who else are we building this offense on the back of?

(I know AJ is around, but he's no longer a building block)

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-17-2020, 12:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It is not that simple.  For example look at 2016

Bengals with AJ..........3-6-1
Bengals without AJ.....3-3-0


I am NOT saying that the Bengals are not a better team with AJ,  but clearly he was not "carrying" the team.

I’ll take the much larger sample size.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-17-2020, 12:43 PM)Whatever Wrote: Thing is, AJ started missing games around the time our OL started falling apart.  

We even sucked in 2016 though when we still had Whit and Zeitler. Ogbuehi definitely helped sink us, but AJ did miss 6 games. And we lost half of them.

[Bilbo Saggins]

(07-17-2020, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Sure seems like he’s carried us to me...

I should've said that skill position players can't carry a roster on their own. 


Many of the wins that you've cited were before the OL fell apart and the wheels started to fall off of the LB corps. I wasn't trying to knock AJ, Mixon, or any skill player. You need good skill players to win. It's just my philosophy(which I believe to be based in fact) that you can't expect skill position players to be so good that they can do everything by themselves. 

See how Andy Reid's teams have historically drafted when he's been a HC. He scoops up trench players and always fields solid lines. The teams that go deep in the playoffs or make the playoffs regularly almost always have good lines.