Bad luck in close games.

[fredtoast]

(07-27-2020, 06:26 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I really don't understand the argument you're trying to make here.  Had we beaten the Browns and Jets by less points, and only one score, we'd be considered "more lucky" using your criteria.  But because our two wins happened to come by more points then we're somehow less lucky in single score games?

Exactly.  Most people only consider "luck" as a factor in close games.  

What is so hard to understand about that?

[*Nately120*]

(07-27-2020, 04:47 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here are some "close games" we were invloved in, delved into further to paint a better picture of "luck".



Arizona (Final - 26-23)

-Down 23-9 with only 7 minutes left.
-Allowed 266 yards rushing.
-Forced zero turnovers. (Lost turnover battle)
-Only 374 yards  to their 514

Baltimore (Final - 23-17)

-Down 23-10 with only 3 mintues left.
-Allowed 269 yards rushing.
-Only 250 yards of offense to their 497. (2:1)
-Time of possession - 20:18 to 39.42 (2:1)

Oakland (Final - 17-10)

-16 first downs to their 20
-246 yards to their 386
-Time of possession 24:38 to their 35:22

Miami (Final - 38-35)

-Down 35-12 with 11 minuntes left.
-Had to score 3 TD's, coupled with an onsides recovery in the last 6 minutes, to force OT. (We were the lucky ones)
-Allowed Ryan Fotzpatrick throw for 419 yards and 4 TD's. (Please read this line twice)
-Allowed over 500 yards of offense.
-Miami had more yards, more first downs, more time of possession
-Miami had less penalties, and allowed less sacks.

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When you look at the final scores of some of these games it's real easy just to point to a final score and pretend like luck prevented us from pulling a few of these games out.  It's easy to just to look at these finals and think we were so close.  But when you dig deeper, or when remember the game, some of these weren't as close as they appear.

The first Baltimore game is a perfect example of this.  They basically ran a bend don't break D and allowed us to march down the field, where he ultimately scored at a meaningless time (1 minute remaining).  They completely dominated that game.

+rep, and good research but I'm not sure why you wanted us to read "Fotzpatrick" twice.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-28-2020, 09:29 AM)Nately120 Wrote: +rep, and good research but I'm not sure why you wanted us to read "Fotzpatrick" twice.

 

Whoops, I just noticed that.  I really just wanted to illustrate just how absurd a stat line that was to give to Ryan Fitzpatrick in that offense.