"Five Bold Predictions for the 2020 Season"

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 03:52 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I agree QB's usually get the look since they are high profile, but the competition is what I think makes this a more bold prediction, not too mention the unknowns:

1) With less interaction due to Covid, will it be harder for a rookie QB to adjust to the league then say a rookie RB? 
2) With the shortened off-season, how long till Burrow builds a good chemistry with his wideout, not too mention how long till the O-line gels?

It will be an interesting season.

Please don't read this as an attack on you Murdock, but these arguments about Covid and having less time to prepare hurting rookie QB play don't make that much sense to me.  If anything, I think offenses will have the advantages on defenses (at least in the beginning).  Defenses having to cover and tackle without the full-speed practices and pre-season games seems like a greater liability than running and catching.  Blocking may be an issue, but that is going to be every team. 

When in college, the NCAA has practice regulations that prohibit teams from organized practices (with coaches) to 20 hours per week  (i believe...it may have changed.  That rule didn't exist when I was in college and we went WAY beyond it).  Burrow was able to be dominant against the best defenses in college football in one year with a new scheme and OC.  

I think Burrow will be downright amazing in year 1.  

[*Synric*]

(08-10-2020, 04:13 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Of the safeties in the league, 6 ranked in the top 100 list.

Jamal Adams, S, Seattle Seahawks (No. 27 overall)

Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 35)

Tyrann Mathieu, S, Kansas City Chiefs (No. 39)

Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings (No. 64)

Earl Thomas, S, Baltimore Ravens (No. 75)

Budda Baker, S, Arizona Cardinals (No. 97)




After those its who:

Derwin James (electrifying when healthy. Have to see how he recovers.)

Anthony Harris Minnesota 

Justin Simmons Denver

Devin McCourty New England (Age has to catch up at some point)

Then who, Tre Boston, Jesse Bates, Vonn Bell, Jabrill Peppers??

I could see Jesse making it to the top 10. Should be a better front 7, which should increase his chances for INTs, and with the addition of Bell and the other DBs he might be able to drop back and just play a true center field Free Safety like and may put up some crazy numbers.

Kevin Byard gets no respect.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 04:29 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Micah Hyde from Buffalo graded out pretty well last season, and was part of an elite defense. I’m not saying I’d be shocked if Bates cracked the top 10, I just think it’s the least likely of the 5 predictions. There was also some really good safeties taken in this draft (Xavier McKinney, Grant Delpit, etc).

The word "elite" gets tossed around often and I have always thought of it, numerically speaking, to be within the top 1%.  Semantics notwithstanding, you're description about Buffalo's defense got me thinking.  

If you look at certain "elite" players, they almost always come from really strong units.  Focusing on the defensive side of the ball, I always think of Aeneas Williams as a bright spot in a pretty bleak time for the Cardinals.  I was really glad to see the guy get to the Super Bowl with the Rams at the end of his career, although they lost.  Williams was a stud player on a dud team.  I am not saying that is Bates.  He struggled in both coverage and tackling last year, although I will say he is at least a willing tackler.  


When Bates is surrounded by better talent and able to do his "center field" thing, which is his strength, I see him capitalizing on an improved pass rush and LB play, as well as better play (hopefully) out of Waynes, Alexander, WJIII, and Bell.  In other words, although the improvements are all over the defense, I could see it really impacting the stat sheet for Bates.

Plus, Bates will be coming up on a new contract and this is his third year.  Should be fun to watch.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 09:23 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: The word "elite" gets tossed around often and I have always thought of it, numerically speaking, to be within the top 1%.  Semantics notwithstanding, you're description about Buffalo's defense got me thinking.  

If you look at certain "elite" players, they almost always come from really strong units.  Focusing on the defensive side of the ball, I always think of Aeneas Williams as a bright spot in a pretty bleak time for the Cardinals.  I was really glad to see the guy get to the Super Bowl with the Rams at the end of his career, although they lost.  Williams was a stud player on a dud team.  I am not saying that is Bates.  He struggled in both coverage and tackling last year, although I will say he is at least a willing tackler.  


When Bates is surrounded by better talent and able to do his "center field" thing, which is his strength, I see him capitalizing on an improved pass rush and LB play, as well as better play (hopefully) out of Waynes, Alexander, WJIII, and Bell.  In other words, although the improvements are all over the defense, I could see it really impacting the stat sheet for Bates.

Plus, Bates will be coming up on a new contract and this is his third year.  Should be fun to watch.  

I generally equate elite to be top 5. Top 5 QB, top 5 WR, defense etc. Is Buffalo’s defense the 2000 Ravens? No, but they’re one of the best units in the league, and are the main reason that team was so good last year.

[fredtoast]

Most of these are not really "bold"

-Burrow is the odds on favorite to win ROY.

-Mixon is one of only 3 RBs with 1100+ yards each of the last two seasons, plus he averaged aver 100Yrads per game over the second half of last season.

-Our special teams return pretty much everyone but Fejedelem.

-"Growing pains" are a given.

So that just leaves "Bates a top 10 safety". I call that "bold" because Bates has not really gotten a lot of hype. But it is possible.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 09:40 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I generally equate elite to be top 5. Top 5 QB, top 5 WR, defense etc. Is Buffalo’s defense the 2000 Ravens? No, but they’re one of the best units in the league, and are the main reason that team was so good last year.

Top 5 in a league of 32 means that they aren't even in the top 15% if they are team 5.  See what I mean?  But I agree with your general point that they have a really damn good defense.  I am kind of a closet Bills fan now that the Colts, Saints, and Eagles have won Super Bowls.  The old "Misery loves company" argument.  Especially the Saints and Eagles.  The way that fan base responded and how much fun they had.  I can only hope and pray that happens once while my dad is still here to enjoy it.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 09:46 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Top 5 in a league of 32 means that they aren't even in the top 15% if they are team 5.  See what I mean?  But I agree with your general point that they have a really damn good defense.  I am kind of a closet Bills fan now that the Colts, Saints, and Eagles have won Super Bowls.  The old "Misery loves company" argument.  Especially the Saints and Eagles.  The way that fan base responded and how much fun they had.  I can only hope and pray that happens once while my dad is still here to enjoy it.  

Well, I’d say a QB that is top 5 out of 32 is absolutely elite. Mahomes, Lamar, Brees, Wilson, Rodgers...is whoever you rank 5th out of those guys not elite? And that’s not even including the GOAT, who looked like he’s finally declining, but I’d personally still consider him elite. He’ll probably have a huge year with those WR’s and Gronk in TB.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 09:55 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Well, I’d say a QB that is top 5 out of 32 is absolutely elite. Mahomes, Lamar, Brees, Wilson, Rodgers...is whoever you rank 5th out of those guys not elite? And that’s not even including the GOAT, who looked like he’s finally declining, but I’d personally still consider him elite. He’ll probably have a huge year with those WR’s and Gronk in TB.

Brady would not be elite where he is today, IMHO.  He certainly was, though.  

Maybe a better way of framing it is saying top 5 out of all 90 QBs in the NFL.  Then your % is close to the top 5%.  Top 5 defense being "elite", out of 32 total defenses just runs against my definition of elite.  

I would say there is often 1 or maybe 2 elite defenses in the NFL.  Rarely are there 5.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 10:43 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Brady would not be elite where he is today, IMHO.  He certainly was, though.  

Maybe a better way of framing it is saying top 5 out of all 90 QBs in the NFL.  Then your % is close to the top 5%.  Top 5 defense being "elite", out of 32 total defenses just runs against my definition of elite.  

I would say there is often 1 or maybe 2 elite defenses in the NFL.  Rarely are there 5.  

Pats, 9ers, Bills, Ravens, all were last season, imo. You could also make a case for the Steelers who had no business winning 8 games without Ben.

But going back to the QB’s I mentioned, even leaving out Brady which of the other 5 aren’t elite in your opinion? I think you’re getting too wrapped up in percentages honestly.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 11:02 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Pats, 9ers, Bills, Ravens, all were last season, imo. You could also make a case for the Steelers who had no business winning 8 games without Ben.

But going back to the QB’s I mentioned, even leaving out Brady which of the other 5 aren’t elite in your opinion? I think you’re getting too wrapped up in percentages honestly.

Ravens defense was far from Elite.   They struggled mightily against the run early, hence bringing back Josh Bynes.  And I would say "really good" or even "great", but not elite.  Elite to me in terms of QBs right now in the NFL is Patrick Mahommes and Drew Brees.   Lamar had one amazing season, which was largely based on what he provides as a rushing threat.  That rarely lasts in the NFL.  Heck, RGIII had an amazing year 1 as well.  Then, injuries and poof.  Those two are playing as elite QBs right now.  There's no wrong or right, we just see the term "elite" differently.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(08-10-2020, 12:51 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Ravens defense was far from Elite.   They struggled mightily against the run early, hence bringing back Josh Bynes.  And I would say "really good" or even "great", but not elite.  Elite to me in terms of QBs right now in the NFL is Patrick Mahommes and Drew Brees.   Lamar had one amazing season, which was largely based on what he provides as a rushing threat.  That rarely lasts in the NFL.  Heck, RGIII had an amazing year 1 as well.  Then, injuries and poof.  Those two are playing as elite QBs right now.  There's no wrong or right, we just see the term "elite" differently.  

You’re discounting the current MVP because he probably won’t last? That’s pretty faulty logic. He’s absolutely elite right now. Guy led the league in passing TD’s AND ran for 1200+ yds. He’s an amazing talent. Whether or not it’s sustainable we shall see. And idk how you don’t consider Wilson or Rodgers elite. The former has been carrying his team on his back since they broke up the legion of boom, and the latter is right there with Mahomes as one of the most physically gifted QB’s I’ve ever seen.

But we can certainly agree to disagree on whether a defense has to be top 2, top 5, etc to be considered elite. I think the Bills probably were last year. Like I said, that doesn’t mean I’m comparing them to some of the all time great defenses, just that they’re much better than all but a couple other teams.

[Wes Mantooth]

Elite is a subjective term. You can't apply a uniform ranking or percentile needed across different topics.

e·lite
/əˈlēt,āˈlēt/
Learn to pronounce
noun
noun: elite; plural noun: elites

1.
a select group that is superior in terms of ability or qualities to the rest of a group or society

[Murdock2420]

(08-10-2020, 09:03 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Please don't read this as an attack on you Murdock, but these arguments about Covid and having less time to prepare hurting rookie QB play don't make that much sense to me.  If anything, I think offenses will have the advantages on defenses (at least in the beginning).  Defenses having to cover and tackle without the full-speed practices and pre-season games seems like a greater liability than running and catching.  Blocking may be an issue, but that is going to be every team. 

When in college, the NCAA has practice regulations that prohibit teams from organized practices (with coaches) to 20 hours per week  (i believe...it may have changed.  That rule didn't exist when I was in college and we went WAY beyond it).  Burrow was able to be dominant against the best defenses in college football in one year with a new scheme and OC.  

I think Burrow will be downright amazing in year 1.  

Not an attack at all. It is actually the best part about the board. Can have different opinions on a topic and discuss it without things devolving (usually) and everyone in the end is still routing for the same team to win.

He very well may be amazing year one, I just always hear rookie QBs talking about adjusting to the speed of the game and how the windows are smaller and the DBs are faster, etc, etc. I just worry with a limited amount of pre-season snaps and shortened less contact type training camp it will take him a little longer to adjust to the speed. We will find out though.

[J24]

Bates being an elite player wouldn't surprise me at all but he has more consistent. I would add that I would like to see him make more plays behind the line of scrimmage & the big plays against him have to stop happening. You can tell he has great ball Hawking skills + Athletic Ability though.

In the 16 games where he has played well( weeks 1-8 in 2018 & 10-17 in 2019) 11 Pass breakups, 6 INTs, and 1 TD.
The other 16 5 Pass breakups and 0 INTs.

[*SHRacerX*]

(08-10-2020, 10:55 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Not an attack at all. It is actually the best part about the board. Can have different opinions on a topic and discuss it without things devolving (usually) and everyone in the end is still routing for the same team to win.

He very well may be amazing year one, I just always hear rookie QBs talking about adjusting to the speed of the game and how the windows are smaller and the DBs are faster, etc, etc. I just worry with a limited amount of pre-season snaps and shortened less contact type training camp it will take him a little longer to adjust to the speed. We will find out though.

When I look at the success of guys like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahommes, Desawn Watson, Kyler Murray, and a bit further back, Russell Wilson, one common thread for these guys that had really good starts in the NFL is mobility.  I am not saying that Burrow is Lamar Jackson, but he is very elusive, quick, and agile in the pocket.  We have not had a mobile QB since Jeff Blake.  

Everyone talks about Burrow's ability to read defenses quickly, his leadership, and his preparation, but his mobility is not often mentioned.  I think that is one specific trait that carries a ton of value in today's NFL and I am hoping it helps with him hitting the ground "running".

And thanks for he point about different opinions.  Most here feel that way :)

[CJD]

(08-09-2020, 10:51 PM)Synric Wrote: Contrary to popular belief their are other positions in the race for OROY. Quarterbacks get the attention and Burrow, Tua, and Herbert will top the lists but there was ALOT of talented offensive players at then top of the draft.

The 2020 draft had 6 Wide Receivers and a Running Back in the first round and 7 Wide Receivers and 5 Running Backs in the second round. 

I agree.

Over the last 20 years, 8 QBs, 9 RBs and 3 WRs have won the award.

In the 10 years before that, it was 8 RBs, 2 WRs and 0 QBs (granted, I doubt rookie QBs really played that much in the 90s). That trend continued in the 80s, for likely the same reason.

I think QBs are the flashy names to win, but history shows RBs win more often. The NFL is changing and the new CBA has thrust QBs into the starting line up faster than in previous generations, but I still think RB is the safer bet in today's NFL, simply because it's the easiest transition from college to the NFL. WR and QB, on the other hand, both have HUGE learning curves. 

The interesting thing about RBs is a lot of their success is based on their offensive line (I mean, every player on offense is affected by the play of the offensive line, but RBs are exponentially more impacted by a good Oline vs a bad Oline). So it's hard to give a prediction of exactly who will win OROY as a RB. But if I had to guess, I'd say Johnathan Taylor or CEH. Both going into insanely talented offensive lines and both have opportunities to be the feature back (Marlon Mack is currently listed as  Indy's starter, but I could see Taylor taking over that spot). I think D'Andre Swift also has a chance, but his Oline isn't as good as the other two.

[CJD]

(08-10-2020, 10:55 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Not an attack at all. It is actually the best part about the board. Can have different opinions on a topic and discuss it without things devolving (usually) and everyone in the end is still routing for the same team to win.

He very well may be amazing year one, I just always hear rookie QBs talking about adjusting to the speed of the game and how the windows are smaller and the DBs are faster, etc, etc. I just worry with a limited amount of pre-season snaps and shortened less contact type training camp it will take him a little longer to adjust to the speed. We will find out though.

In Soviet NFL, speed of NFL adjusts to Joe Burrow.

[EatonFan]

1) Burrow will finally end the 1st rounders injury curse
2) Jonah Williams will allow 5 sacks
3) Our LB corps will be respectable by end of the year (middle of the pack in most categories)
4) Boyd will have yet another 1,000 yard season
5) Higgins will see more time in the red zone, but less time between the 20s.