Mixon's Migrane Should Be Good Now

[Nicomo Cosca]

Glad we got this done, and it won’t be looming over him and the team all season.

Now go out there and earn that money Joe.

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-01-2020, 08:29 PM)N_B Wrote: What’s the dead $$$ situation if cut each yr (knowing that the bengals rarely do that...)?

2020 - 19.3 mil
2021 - 16 mil
2022 - 6 mil
2023 - 4 mil
2024 - 2 mil

For those that don't know, if you cut him in any of these years this is what remains on the books.

[*bfine32*]

(09-01-2020, 08:27 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: It's definitely not a great deal.

I know most people on here really like him, and think he's a damn good player.  But I think that severly clouds their judgment when it comes to actually placing a fair market price for him.

We didn't get much value here.  There's zero discount for paying early.  And to put him right at the value of a player who just rushed for 1,540 yards at 5.1 a pop, with 16 TD's, who just played in Superbowl, is pretty absurd.

Mixon simply doesn't have the production to warrant this amount of money.  Not to mention, paying running backs this much is usually not a good use of cap space.

To each their own though, I guess.

You stated you're not "going out of your way" to be mad about the deal, but your multiple posts in this thread suggest differently. 
You currently have the most posts in this thread talking about how you're not going out of your way. 

The deal seems sound. 

[Wes Mantooth]

Mark Ingram has argubly been a better back recently, and he just signed a 5 mil per deal last season.  We're paying Mixon 2.5x the amount to stay here beyond 2020.

Fwiw, here is the tail of the tape for Mixon vs. Ingram over the last 3 years:

Rushing Yards
Mixon - 2,930
Ingram - 2,787

YPC
Mixon - 4.2
Ingram - 4.9

Rushing TD's
Mixon - 17
Ingram - 28

Receiving Yards
Mixon -870
Ingram - 833

Receiving TD's
Mixon - 4
Ingram - 6

Total Yards
Mixon - 3,800
Ingram - 3,620

Total TD's
Mixon - 21
Ingram - 34

This, IMHO, is the problem that some of us who don't like the deal have.  I think this is a good illustration of why the deal is for way too much.

I didn't mind paying Mixon more than Ingram.  I can buy easily buy into the ideas that he's played behind lesser lines, and hasn't been properly used in the passing game, and that he's been in offenses that have struggled to score.  I get all that.

But at some point production factors into contracts in this league.  So while I can accept paying him more than 50% more than Ingram at 8 mil plus, I cannot get on board with paying 2.5 times the amount.

The numbers just aren't there to support this amount.  Not to mention the absolute disasters of contracts that were handed out to David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and Leveon Bell support the idea that it's bad business to pay big money to an RB.  (Henry and McCaffery are on new deals, and Zeke is only 1 year in.  There value remains to be seen.)

[Nicomo Cosca]

I also haven’t really seen it mentioned, but it’s nice that such a good player, probably top 10 at his position, wanted to be here. Along with some actual high end FA’s like Reader and Bell it’s encouraging.

[GreenCornBengal]

(09-01-2020, 08:53 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Mark Ingram has argubly been a better back recently, and he just signed a 5 mil per deal last season.  We're paying Mixon 2.5x the amount to stay here beyond 2020.

Fwiw, here is the tail of the tape for Mixon vs. Ingram over the last 3 years:

Rushing Yards

Mixon - 2,930
Ingram - 2,787

YPC

Mixon - 4.2
Ingram - 4.9

Rushing TD's

Mixon - 17
Ingram - 28

Receiving Yards

Mixon -870
Ingram - 833

Receiving TD's

Mixon - 4
Ingram - 6

Total Yards

Mixon - 3,800
Ingram - 3,620

Total TD's

Mixon - 21
Ingram - 34

This,IMHO, is the problem that some of us who don't like the deal have.  I think this is a good illustration of why the deal is for way too much.

I didn't mind paying Mixon more than Ingram.  I can buy easily buy into the ideas that he's played behind lesser lines, and hasn't been properly used in the passing game, and that he's been in offenses that have struggled to score.  I get all that.

But at some point production factors into contracts in this league.  So while I can accept paying him more than 50% more than Ingram at 8 mil plus, I cannot get on board with paying 2.5 times the amount.

The numbers just aren't there to support this amount.  Not to mention the absolute disasters of contracts that were handed out to David Johnson, Todd Gurley, and Leveon Bell support the idea that it's bad business to pay big money to an RB.  (Henry and McCaffery are on new deals, and Zeke is only 1 year in.  There value remains to be seen.)

Big Truss

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-01-2020, 08:55 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I also haven’t really seen it mentioned, but it’s nice that such a good player, probably top 10 at his position, wanted to be here. Along with some actual high end FA’s like Reader and Bell it’s encouraging.

Of course he wanted to be here.  He just got 19.2 mil dollars in guaranteed money instead having to play on a 1.2 mil contract.

Just because these guys sign early deals that isn't a great indication that they wanted to be here more than anywhere else. 

Now if he hits free agency and there's competing offers then that tells you something.  This tells me nothing, other than that he just got paid big time.

[Au165]

(09-01-2020, 08:33 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: 2020 - 19.3 mil
2021 - 16 mil
2022 - 6 mil
2023 - 4 mil
2024 - 2 mil

For those that don't know, if you cut him in any of these years this is what remains on the books.

The one caveat in this is 2024 is a team option that depending when it has to be picked up could be considered a zombie year with no penalty accelerating some of that cap penalty forward.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-01-2020, 09:03 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Of course he wanted to be here.  He just got 19.2 mil dollars in guaranteed money instead having to play on a 1.2 mil contract.

Just because these guys sign early deals that isn't a great indication that they wanted to be here more than anywhere else. 

Now if he hits free agency and there's competing offers then that tells you something.  This tells me nothing, other than that he just got paid big time.

He would have absolutely had some good offers next year. Especially if he had 3rd consecutive 1k yds season.

But I get it, you don’t like this deal. You’ve made that abundantly clear.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-01-2020, 09:15 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He would have absolutely had some good offers next year. Especially if he had 3rd consecutive 1k yds season.

But I get it, you don’t like this deal. You’ve made that abundantly clear.

Or he could be ineffective in 2020.
Or he could be hurt in 2020.

Then he goes from $19.2m guaranteed to $0 guaranteed and having to play on a 1-year prove it deal.

Everyone wants to be where they get $19.2m guaranteed rather than $1.2m. It's why he had "migranes" until he got that $19.2m, because he didn't want to risk it here over $1.2m.

[Essex Johnson]

Securing Mixon I believe is vital for a early success to Burrow.. besides being an excellent back that will work well with play action for Burrow.. he will block well and help protect Joe which is priceless in my opinion...

Who Dey

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-01-2020, 09:32 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Or he could be ineffective in 2020.
Or he could be hurt in 2020.

Then he goes from $19.2m guaranteed to $0 guaranteed and having to play on a 1-year prove it deal.

Everyone wants to be where they get $19.2m guaranteed rather than $1.2m. It's why he had "migranes" until he got that $19.2m, because he didn't want to risk it here over $1.2m.

Or he could go off for a career year now that teams have to respect the pass.

Anyway I for one am glad he’s going to be here for the next 5 years. These are the kind of deals you can afford to pay when you have a QB on a rookie contract. And Joe Mixon makes this team better at the end of the day. Now we can focus on OL or CB, DE, etc in the early rounds the next few years.

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-01-2020, 09:15 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He would have absolutely had some good offers next year. Especially if he had 3rd consecutive 1k yds season.

But I get it, you don’t like this deal. You’ve made that abundantly clear.

Next year.

C'mon, man.  I've read enough of your postx to know that you understand this.  There is a big difference between getting paid now, and waiting until next year.

Here are some risks I can think of:

-Career Ending Injury (No money)
-Significant Injury (Way less money)
-Bad year (Less Money)
-Shortened or caneled season (Salary Cap decreased)

The cap is already projected to shrink next year, and that's assuming they get through this year.  How is his market going to improve in that free agency period? And what would he have to do to increase his value from 12 mil per?  1,400+ yards?  12+ TD's?  60+ receptions?

It would take an absolute career year, and HUGE improvement, to increase his asking price from the extension he just got. Now weigh the chances of all the risks, and weigh the chance of the reward.  No one is not taking that deal right now.

I'm not even trying to be negative here.  Maybe he does really like it here.  But you can't say that because he took this deal it's a sign he really wanted to be here.

I think you know all of this.  I really do.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(09-01-2020, 06:45 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: This deal is no different then had they waited to sign him after the season, with a brand new 4 year 48 million dollar deal.  If that were to happen he would then be worth... 12 million a year on his new contract.

We set his market value moving forward at 12 million a year.  Period.  End of story.

I can't believe you guys argue such a simple concept.  Yes, over 5 year he makes 9.6 mil.  But the 4 years extended is new money, and reflects his current market value.  The money needed to secure him  beyond this season is how you determine the value of the contract.  The first year was already in place, which was set 3 years ago.

Actually, it IS a bit different. I cannot believe you cannot understand such a simple concept (back at you).

1) Mixon gets roughly $2.5 million of the signing bonus now. I am sure that makes a difference to Joe.

2) Accordingly, his cap number is $2.5 mil higher this year, as is ours.

Thus, this new deal, while a 4 year extension (with a team option on the last year), is paying Mixon money over 5 years, not 4.  Comprende?

[*bfine32*]

(09-01-2020, 10:25 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Actually, it IS a bit different. I cannot believe you cannot understand such a simple concept (back at you).

1) Mixon gets roughly $2.5 million of the signing bonus now. I am sure that makes a difference to Joe.

2) Accordingly, his cap number is $2.5 mil higher this year, as is ours.

Thus, this new deal, while a 4 year extension (with a team option on the last year), is paying Mixon money over 5 years, not 4.  Comprende?

I got a feeling he's starting to understand, but as this point he's dug his heels in. 

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-01-2020, 10:25 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Actually, it IS a bit different. I cannot believe you cannot understand such a simple concept (back at you).

1) Mixon gets roughly $2.5 million of the signing bonus now. I am sure that makes a difference to Joe.

2) Accordingly, his cap number is $2.5 mil higher this year, as is ours.

Thus, this new deal, while a 4 year extension (with a team option on the last year), is paying Mixon money over 5 years, not 4.  Comprende?

He gets all of his signing bonus this year.  It's to released upon signing.

What you're referring to is the cap hits of said bonus, which can be spread out at the team's discretion.

Congratulations, I'm going to bow it from this thread. I'm done debating people who don't understand how any of this works.

[Wes Mantooth]

(09-01-2020, 10:30 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I got a feeling he's starting to understand, but as this point he's dug his heels in. 

You guys can takover, bud. Spread your misinformation and bs all over the thread.

We didn't just value Joe Mixon as a 12 mil dollar running back to extend him. You're totally right.

[*bfine32*]

(09-01-2020, 10:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You guys can takover, bud. Spread your misinformation and bs all over the thread.

We didn't just value Joe Mixon as a 12 mil dollar running back to extend him. You're totally right.

Yeah, that's probably best for everyone. 

[Murdock2420]

Maybe it is an over-pay, only time will tell. The good news is the Bengals have signed FA and now committed to one of their core pieces and seem to actually want to go out there and win.

So, if they overpaid on the deal, does it really matter that much? It isn't your money being sent to Mixon, and they have to use up the cap space anyways.

If Mixon stays healthy and Burrow is what everyone is saying he can be, it could turn out to be a very could deal for everyone involved.

[*Synric*]

Its structured very similar to Derrick Henry's deal. Front loaded and a potential out in 2023 with a 4mil dead cap.