Auden Tate - Breakout Year with Burrow?

[Nicomo Cosca]

There is no “Fred Johnson fan club” most of us are just desperate for someone to replace the terrible Bobby Hart. Unfortunately Johnson didn’t step up. Our next hope is Adeniji. Maybe not this season, but the young kid is coming for that job by the sound of it.

[fredtoast]

(09-07-2020, 07:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: He does whatever drives debate.  As a result he gladly takes on the role of the contrarian.

Fred loves arguing move than Rex Ryan loves feet.

Except many times I am right while the general consensus here is wrong.

Vigil had more value in free agency than Bynes.

Fred Johnson did not get a whiff of Bobby Harts RT starting job. 

As for Auden Tate I'd be thrilled shitless if he became another Houshmandzadeh type 7th round pick but comparing him to Michael Thomas or Mike Williams is just ridiculous at this point.

And finally, the book is still out on Drew Sample.  I have not really predicted great things for him.  I have just said it is too early to write him off as a bust.

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-07-2020, 07:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Except many times I am right while the general consensus here is wrong.


As for Auden Tate I'd be thrilled shitless if he became another Houshmandzadeh type 7th round pick but comparing him to Michael Thomas or Mike Williams is just ridiculous at this point.

Wrong in your eyes does not equal wrong...

And I think where so many disagree with you is in the way a comparison is made and you take that to mean that someone feels player A is as good as player B, when they may only be making a characteristic comparison.  If someone said Ross is like DeShawn Jackson, they aren't saying that Ross has had the career of a guy like Jackson, but only that they have similar size and speed and that Ross could produce like Jackson if all went well.

As for what I said about Tate in relation to Michael Thomas:


He was really good in contested catches. 



 What makes him special is his hands and his catch radius.



He is a poor man's Michael Thomas


Is anything stated here untrue?   Did I claim AT had production near MT?  No.  But you can't draw a comparison to anyone (although they are of similar size and athleticism:  Wingspan of 1" greater to Tate, Hand 1 " larger for Thomas, Vertical leap 4" greater for Thomas, 40 time .11 sec faster for Thomas (4.57 vs 4.68).  

Tate has shown an ability to catch some balls that most WRs simply don't catch.  He was a highlight reel last year.  His % doesn't take in to account the accuracy of the pass, either.  If you know anything about a slant (the route Thomas has made a living with), the pass has to be accurate and on time.  

Would Tate have the numbers of Michael Thomas if he played for the Saints and was targeted as a true #1?  Pretty unlikely, and impossible to prove, but what Tate has done is show in NFL games when he is given the opportunity that he has great hands and catch radius as well as executing in contested situations.  

 

[Au165]

(09-07-2020, 07:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Except many times I am right while the general consensus here is wrong.

That is funny. Too bad it's against ToS to bump old threads.

As for the Mike Williams comment, I stand behind it 100%. Auden Tate can be Mike Williams with better QB play. The arguement stemmed from people saying you can't be good without seperation, Tate gets slightly better seperation than Williams and plays a similar style game. The big difference I pointed out, in the thread you took that quote from, was that Williams recieved FAR better placed balls than Tate did. We will see if Mike Williams can be Mike Williams with worse QB play this year interestingly enough.

[Au165]

(09-07-2020, 11:44 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Is that due to injury or what?
I thought Green, Boyd, and Ross would be the starters in 3-wide sets.

I like Tate a lot as a WR3/4, but I'd have concerns if the starters end up being Tate, Boyd, and Higgins next year, as there's not much speed there.

Speed is overrated. Keenan Allen was clocked at 4.7 coming out and Williams depending who you ask was around a 4.5 and Inman was around there as well. The Chargers made do with the speed that would be similar if the three-wide set was as you mention above. 

That said, I don't think it's because of injury. I think it'll be because of a comfort Burrow has with him because of him being there the whole camp. "Start" may not work because of the play call they run out of the set, so let me rephrase it as he will be top 3 in snaps taken at WR. I think AJ, Higgins, and Ross will all see snap counts because they have all missed substantial times during camp. 

[*ochocincos*]

(09-08-2020, 11:04 AM)Au165 Wrote: Speed is overrated. Keenan Allen was clocked at 4.7 coming out and Williams depending who you ask was around a 4.5 and Inman was around there as well. The Chargers made do with the speed that would be similar if the three-wide set was as you mention above. 

That said, I don't think it's because of injury. I think it'll be because of a comfort Burrow has with him because of him being there the whole camp. "Start" may not work because of the play call they run out of the set, so let me rephrase it as he will be top 3 in snaps taken at WR. I think AJ, Higgins, and Ross will all see snap counts because they have all missed substantial times during camp. 

That's fair.

You are right that speed isn't everything, but it can help. With that said, the Bengals have Burrow, who should be (somewhat) better at throwing into tight windows for his receivers to make catches without needing too much separation compared to Dalton. When Dalton was QB, the offense stalled when Green and Ross were not out there. 

If the team is determined not to extend Ross regardless of performance this year, it would be wise to make Ross WR4/5 and give his spot to Tate. Then have Higgins learn behind Green.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-08-2020, 10:51 AM)Au165 Wrote: That is funny. Too bad it's against ToS to bump old threads.

As for the Mike Williams comment, I stand behind it 100%. Auden Tate can be Mike Williams with better QB play. The arguement stemmed from people saying you can't be good without seperation, Tate gets slightly better seperation than Williams and plays a similar style game. The big difference I pointed out, in the thread you took that quote from, was that Williams recieved FAR better placed balls than Tate did. We will see if Mike Williams can be Mike Williams with worse QB play this year interestingly enough.

Absolutely he could.
Tate had 575 yards in 10 starts. Over the course of a full season, that'd be over 900 yards.
Mike Williams had 664 yards in 2018 and 1001 yards in 2019 with likely-HOF-bound Rivers throwing to him.
I imagine Williams will probably decrease in production too with Taylor/Herbert at QB.
With that said, I see Williams' lack of speed being a major factor in him never ascending to being a true good WR1.
As such, I don't see Tate ever getting to the level of a true good WR1 either, but he's capable of being a good WR2/3.

[Au165]

(09-08-2020, 11:29 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Absolutely he could.
Tate had 575 yards in 10 starts. Over the course of a full season, that'd be over 900 yards.
Mike Williams had 664 yards in 2018 and 1001 yards in 2019 with likely-HOF-bound Rivers throwing to him.
I imagine Williams will probably decrease in production too with Taylor/Herbert at QB.
With that said, I see Williams' lack of speed being a major factor in him never ascending to being a true good WR1.
As such, I don't see Tate ever getting to the level of a true good WR1 either, but he's capable of being a good WR2/3.

My whole point in the thread Fred pulled that quote from was that he could be a high-end WR 2, which seems to be far off from "The greatest thing since sliced bread", or whatever mischaracterization Fred was using.

[Whatever]

(09-08-2020, 11:29 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Absolutely he could.
Tate had 575 yards in 10 starts. Over the course of a full season, that'd be over 900 yards.
Mike Williams had 664 yards in 2018 and 1001 yards in 2019 with likely-HOF-bound Rivers throwing to him.
I imagine Williams will probably decrease in production too with Taylor/Herbert at QB.
With that said, I see Williams' lack of speed being a major factor in him never ascending to being a true good WR1.
As such, I don't see Tate ever getting to the level of a true good WR1 either, but he's capable of being a good WR2/3.

Lack of speed?  Mike Williams ran a 4.49 40.  Williams had 17 catches of 20+ yards and 8 catches of 40+ yards last year.  Tate had 8 of 20+ yards and 0 of 40+.  They are not comparable because Williams is a legitimate deep threat that can take the top off the defense and Tate is not.

Some YouTube "expert" makes a vid comparing the two and they are suddenly equivalent players.

[Au165]

(09-08-2020, 11:51 AM)Whatever Wrote: Lack of speed?  Mike Williams ran a 4.49 40.  Williams had 17 catches of 20+ yards and 8 catches of 40+ yards last year.  Tate had 8 of 20+ yards and 0 of 40+.  They are not comparable because Williams is a legitimate deep threat that can take the top off the defense and Tate is not.

Some YouTube "expert" makes a vid comparing the two and they are suddenly equivalent players.

Couple things, Depending who's watch you looked at Williams was anywhere from 4.49 to mid 4.5. The other issue is you are using Williams second year of starting versus Tate's first. When you check out Williams's first-year starting compared to Tate's, things make a little more sense.

Williams- 43 catches 664 yards 15.4 AVG
Tate- 40 catches 575 yards 14.4 AVG

As to the YouTuber, I actually made this comparison right after the season not sure when the Youtuber jumped on board. Stats aside, the comparison was based on them being similar in their separation data along with similar high pointing and contested catch ability. My contention was, and is, Tate with a better QB can be Mike Williams. I am interested to see what Mike Williams is this year with a QB who shy's away from risky throws more so than Rivers did.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-08-2020, 11:51 AM)Whatever Wrote: Lack of speed?  Mike Williams ran a 4.49 40.  Williams had 17 catches of 20+ yards and 8 catches of 40+ yards last year.  Tate had 8 of 20+ yards and 0 of 40+.  They are not comparable because Williams is a legitimate deep threat that can take the top off the defense and Tate is not.

Some YouTube "expert" makes a vid comparing the two and they are suddenly equivalent players.

At his Pro Day, which is far less reliable than running at the Combine, as it's hand-timed only.
Nearly every player runs (much) faster at their Pro Day compared to Combine, and there's also typically a lot of inconsistency since multiple people are hand-timing.


Case in point - https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2017/03/16/40-yard-dash-times-vary-for-mike-williams-at-clemson-pro-day/

Quote:[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.72)]While several times clocked Williams in the 4.5 range, other reports had him around 4.6. Orange & White’s Dan Hope tweeted out both times and averaged them together.[/color]


[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.72)]4.64 for Mike Williams on second 40-yard dash. Think my watch was fast on the first run, but times would average out at 4.57. [/url]#ClemsonProDay
[/color]
[url=https://twitter.com/Dan_Hope/status/842379337840103429?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E842379337840103429%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdraftwire.usatoday.com%2F2017%2F03%2F16%2F40-yard-dash-times-vary-for-mike-williams-at-clemson-pro-day%2F]9:17 AM · Mar 16, 2017

[impactplaya]

Auden Tate was a more raw WR prospect coming out of FSU. Williams came from a school that produces NFL ready WRs.
If the Cody Core fans cant see the growth Tate made from
Year 1 to year 2 with garbage QB play last year then
I.don't know what to.say.

And heres the thing Auden Tate has improved from last year.
Working with Anquan Bolden in the off season.
Being JB go to guy in the red zone in the mini training camp.

And you better believe if JB sees a smaller DB lined up on
Tate, he won't hesitate to go to.Tate.and at 6'5
He is matchup problem for a great deal of DBs and LBs

[MasonDT70]

I personally don't get all that excited about Tate. Hopefully he can become a TJ houshmandzadeh or marques colston type player. Those are the only 2 good 7th round pick wrs I can think of.

[Whatever]

(09-08-2020, 12:04 PM)Au165 Wrote: Couple things, Depending who's watch you looked at Williams was anywhere from 4.49 to mid 4.5. The other issue is you are using Williams second year of starting versus Tate's first. When you check out Williams's first-year starting compared to Tate's, things make a little more sense.

Williams- 43 catches 664 yards 15.4 AVG
Tate- 40 catches 575 yards 14.4 AVG

As to the YouTuber, I actually made this comparison right after the season not sure when the Youtuber jumped on board. Stats aside, the comparison was based on them being similar in their separation data along with similar high pointing and contested catch ability. My contention was, and is, Tate with a better QB can be Mike Williams. I am interested to see what Mike Williams is this year with a QB who shy's away from risky throws more so than Rivers did.

In their 2nd seasons, QB's throwing to Tate did so at a 67.4 QBR.  Williams was at 131.9.  Their numbers only look similar because you omitted the fact that Williams scored 10 TD'S compared to Tate's 1 and Williams did his damage on only 63 Targets.

We can split hairs over Pro Day 40's, but Williams has proven he's a legitimate deep threat on the field, which is where it matters.  While Tate may have similarities in his game to Williams, he doesn't have the speed to stretch the defense like Williams can.  Because of that, he's not comparable.

[Au165]

(09-08-2020, 01:23 PM)Whatever Wrote: In their 2nd seasons, QB's throwing to Tate did so at a 67.4 QBR.  Williams was at 131.9.  Their numbers only look similar because you omitted the fact that Williams scored 10 TD'S compared to Tate's 1 and Williams did his damage on only 63 Targets.

We can split hairs over Pro Day 40's, but Williams has proven he's a legitimate deep threat on the field, which is where it matters.  While Tate may have similarities in his game to Williams, he doesn't have the speed to stretch the defense like Williams can.  Because of that, he's not comparable.

Actually, I didn't use TD's because you were strictly going off yards in your initial post. 

"Speed" to stretch the field is such a cliche that sounds good but really isn't what people think it is, especially when you think about the fact a 2 high shell negates the idea of guys just running straight by. Rarely in the NFL does a receiver line up and just run by a DB. A couple of reasons for that, one being that a .2 second difference in a 40 time doesn't make up for a 6-8 yard cushion. That is why even on a 9 route there is a skill to running the route. You can win the release giving you leverage at the start, thus allowing you to stack them, or you can stem them attacking leverage at the top of the route which then allows you to stack. 

Speed can make these things easier because there is more room for error, but I can show you highlight after highlight of "slow" guys beating much faster corners via proper stemming and stacking. If it was as simple as being fast Al Davis would have had the greatest air raid offense on earth, but he didn't because he didn't actually understand there was more to getting vertical than just speed.

[fredtoast]

(09-08-2020, 01:23 PM)Whatever Wrote:   While Tate may have similarities in his game to Williams, he doesn't have the speed to stretch the defense like Williams can.  Because of that, he's not comparable.

Since speed doesn't matter, separation doesn't matter, and Tate can make every contested catch then is basically Jerry Rice if he just had a better QB.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-08-2020, 02:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Since speed doesn't matter, separation doesn't matter, and Tate can make every contested catch then is basically Jerry Rice if he just had a better QB.

Exactly. 

Now if we can just get Whatever to stop hating Tate so much.       

[Au165]

(09-08-2020, 02:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Since speed doesn't matter, separation doesn't matter, and Tate can make every contested catch then is basically Jerry Rice if he just had a better QB.

Tate had better separation than Williams last year, so does it matter or doesn't it? In both cases, their seperation would be considered "bad". The reality is if you stack properly you can help yourself make catches in tight coverage.

[fredtoast]

(09-08-2020, 02:12 PM)Au165 Wrote: Tate had better separation than Williams last year, so does it matter or doesn't it? In both cases, their seperation would be considered "bad". The reality is if you stack properly you can help yourself make catches in tight coverage.

I am agreeing with you. If speed does not matter, separation does not matter, an Tate makes all the contested catches then there is no reason he can't be Jerry Rice, right?

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-08-2020, 02:12 PM)Au165 Wrote: Tate had better separation than Williams last year, so does it matter or doesn't it? In both cases, their seperation would be considered "bad". The reality is if you stack properly you can help yourself make catches in tight coverage.

I'll say it for the millionth time...
"Separation" is the biggest, overused, bullshit, useless term/variable used for a reciever. If a guy is productive in his skill set, all that other stuff is bunk.