No Need for a #1 WR

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2020, 08:57 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Check my reply up above. I hope that explains my thinking/view on it. I was busy making the reply when you quoted me, so I wasn't able to wrap you into it for the notification.

:andy:

Different interpretations of the same thing then I guess.
We basically share the same info, but one of us considers it spreading whereas the other doesn't.
No receiver on the Bengals right now has more than 25% of the receptions.
Therefore, it means the QB is spreading the ball out to 4+ people.
Given there are only 5 offensive weapons on the field at a time, that's spreading to me.

[QueenCity]

(09-27-2020, 11:04 PM)Sled21 Wrote: AJ is still our #1. He doesn't have the number of receptions simply because Burrow is not forcing the ball to him like Dalton did. And, AJ still requires teams put their best corner and often double him, which leaves Boyd, Higgins and crew easier to get open. Don't discount what AJ brings just because he is not getting every ball...

AJ isn't getting doubled so he's the same as any other WR out there... and not getting open.

This isn't prime AJ this is verge of retirement AJ

[Sled21]

(09-27-2020, 11:16 PM)QueenCity Wrote: AJ isn't getting doubled so he's the same as any other WR out there... and not getting open.

This isn't prime AJ this is verge of retirement AJ

The same as any other WR that requires the #1 corner.....

[QueenCity]

(09-27-2020, 11:17 PM)Sled21 Wrote: The same as any other WR that requires the #1 corner.....

I'm logging off for the night. 

However AJ has shown nothing in the last 3 games that shows he's the AJ of old. There is no data to show otherwise.

You only could blame the O-Line which is what I'd agree with. Other than that either AJ can't get open or Burrow prefers to throw it elsewhere... and if that is the case we shouldn't spend $$$ on bringing him back. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-27-2020, 11:22 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I'm logging off for the night. 

However AJ has shown nothing in the last 3 games that shows he's the AJ of old. There is no data to show otherwise.

You only could blame the O-Line which is what I'd agree with. Other than that either AJ can't get open or Burrow prefers to throw it elsewhere... and if that is the case we shouldn't spend $$$ on bringing him back. 

Sadly it seems like AJ really has lost a step. It feels less and less like rust every game.

[Goalpost]

When you are an elite athlete, and then you are not anymore, it's tough to accept for the player and even coaching. I heard Lap today kind of mention the brutal reality of it, AJ just doesn't explode any more.

[Luvnit2]

I suggest we trade AJ to a playoff caliber team, win for him (he deserves it) and win for us

He would be special again in New England

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-27-2020, 11:48 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I suggest we trade AJ to a playoff caliber team, win for him (he deserves it) and win for us

He would be special again in New England

We’d have to retain a lot of that salary. Forgive my public school math but what is 13 games of 18 mil come to?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-27-2020, 11:05 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Different interpretations of the same thing then I guess.
We basically share the same info, but one of us considers it spreading whereas the other doesn't.
No receiver on the Bengals right now has more than 25% of the receptions.
Therefore, it means the QB is spreading the ball out to 4+ people.
Given there are only 5 offensive weapons on the field at a time, that's spreading to me.

But the problem with using the numbers this year is that they don't have a #1 WR right now. It's spread by requirement this year whereas last year with Burrow we can look at when he had a choice in the matter. You can't use stats where he has no choice and call it preference.

Lacking something doesn't mean that you prefer it that way is where I guess my problem on the idea arises....

Burrow has no #1 WR this year: It doesn't mean Burrow prefers to not have a #1 WR.
Burrow has a garbage OL this year: It doesn't mean Burrow prefers to have a garbage OL.

[Yojimbo]

I’d argue AJ isn’t the #1 anymore, Boyd is.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-28-2020, 12:31 AM)Yojimbo Wrote: I’d argue AJ isn’t the #1 anymore, Boyd is.

Jefferson was Burrow’s favorite target at LSU even over Chase, so I’m not surprised. Boyd has really become mr. reliable the past few years. I could see him breaking TJ’s single season receptions record at some point.

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-27-2020, 07:22 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: They need a deep threat.

As much as I agree with this, I am not using a single damn draft pick on ANYTHING but offensive and defensive line.  Every pick.  Let them fight for their jobs against hungry rookies and see who is left standing.  

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(09-28-2020, 08:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: As much as I agree with this, I am not using a single damn draft pick on ANYTHING but offensive and defensive line.  Every pick.  Let them fight for their jobs against hungry rookies and see who is left standing.  

This seems a bad strategy. We don't want low round rookies protecting Burrow next season nor when camp reps are limited do we want to be using reps on scrubs. The O-line needs as much time together as we can get it.

It makes more sense to replace Ross/Green with, say, a 3rd round WR and spend the money saved on a quality O-lineman in free agency combined with a round 1 or, as we'll be picking high again, rd 2 draft pick.

Ideally we want to go into camp knowing our best O-line and give them as much time as we can to gel.

It is also important that we go into next season with some depth in the O-line. That means retaining the likes of XSF when we upgrade their position. It's fine to have the likes of Johnson and Calhoun battle it out in pre-season out but they shouldn't be plan A or even plan B.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-28-2020, 12:23 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: But the problem with using the numbers this year is that they don't have a #1 WR right now. It's spread by requirement this year whereas last year with Burrow we can look at when he had a choice in the matter. You can't use stats where he has no choice and call it preference.

Lacking something doesn't mean that you prefer it that way is where I guess my problem on the idea arises....

Burrow has no #1 WR this year: It doesn't mean Burrow prefers to not have a #1 WR.
Burrow has a garbage OL this year: It doesn't mean Burrow prefers to have a garbage OL.

That's your interpretation that there is no #1 WR.
The way I see it is AJ is WR1. He's not getting as open as Burrow would like so Burrow is going to his other options when he needs to.
Thus, he's going to Boyd, the RBs, the TEs, and the other WRs.

When looking at targets, no receiver has more than 20.5% of the target share.
Would there be a receiver higher than 20% if Burrow had an elite guy? Sure.
But would Burrow force-feed that target to like a 40% share, especially if Burrow wasn't highly confident that guy will always catch the ball? I doubt it.

Let's put this debate to bed.
Would it help Burrow to have a Top 5 WR in the league? Yes.
Does Burrow have the ability to spread out the ball if his top 1-2 options aren't producing? Yes.

Burrow is on pace for 4378 yards, 26 TDs, 5 INTs.
Add another 341 rushing yards and 5 rush TDs.

He's doing that without elite WR performance right now, which shows he is willing to spread the ball around.

[THE Bigzoman]

I mean,

You really don't need a top tier # 1 to win it all, but it's nice to have. But O-line is more important so it's not like we can pick and choose.

[THE Bigzoman]

Many people think that Burrow can elevate his WR corps to their highest potential.

So maybe it's not that Burrow doesn't need a #1 receiver. It's that he doesn't need a top dollar one to succeed.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(09-27-2020, 07:33 PM)Whatever Wrote: Higgins may wind up being a #1 when it's said and done.  Kid has improved by leaps and bounds the first 3 weeks.

My thoughts as well.... Trevor Lawrence sure liked hitting him deep.

[BengalFanInNJ]

(09-28-2020, 08:30 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: As much as I agree with this, I am not using a single damn draft pick on ANYTHING but offensive and defensive line.  Every pick.  Let them fight for their jobs against hungry rookies and see who is left standing.  

I have a bad feeling that if the Bengals decide to let AJ go, they will draft a receiver with their first pick to replace him after signing a mediocre free-agent OT in the offseason.

[fortyyearfan]

(09-28-2020, 10:22 AM)ochocincos Wrote: That's your interpretation that there is no #1 WR.
The way I see it is AJ is WR1. He's not getting as open as Burrow would like so Burrow is going to his other options when he needs to.
Thus, he's going to Boyd, the RBs, the TEs, and the other WRs.

When looking at targets, no receiver has more than 20.5% of the target share.
Would there be a receiver higher than 20% if Burrow had an elite guy? Sure.
But would Burrow force-feed that target to like a 40% share, especially if Burrow wasn't highly confident that guy will always catch the ball? I doubt it.

Let's put this debate to bed.
Would it help Burrow to have a Top 5 WR in the league? Yes.
Does Burrow have the ability to spread out the ball if his top 1-2 options aren't producing? Yes.

Burrow is on pace for 4378 yards, 26 TDs, 5 INTs.
Add another 341 rushing yards and 5 rush TDs.

He's doing that without elite WR performance right now, which shows he is willing to spread the ball around.

No matter what any of us feel or say on here,we all know NOTHING will change and ZT will be here all season. He is way way over his head and for him  to say in his post game they are still looking at how to improve the line is all I needed to hear.They have no clue. Each interview he says they are going to do everything in their power to win the NEXT game. I would probably take bets they lose this next game against the jags.Oh my goodness how did we ever get so lucky???

[Hammerstripes]

(09-27-2020, 11:48 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I suggest we trade AJ to a playoff caliber team, win for him (he deserves it) and win for us

He would be special again in New England

No, he wouldn't be.  If he's lost his explosiveness, he isn't going to magically regain it somewhere else.  Teams know that.  We did the right thing by tagging him and seeing if he was going to be his old self again.  Maybe he will, but it was a worthwhile risk to have a reliable vet WR with a rookie QB and Higgins coming in.