Wade Phillips wants a job

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-17-2021, 11:07 PM)Benton Wrote: Everything I read said it was mutual, not that del rio was fulfilling his dreams of coaching one of the leagues worst defenses until taylor stepped in.

Taylor not wanting Del Rio really does not help his case...

[Benton]

(01-17-2021, 11:16 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Taylor not wanting Del Rio really does not help his case...

Or maybe it was mutual? 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-17-2021, 11:41 PM)Benton Wrote: Or maybe it was mutual? 

Idk. I’m tired of arguing about it. I just wish we’d hire Wade Phillips now.

[Benton]

(01-17-2021, 11:42 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Idk. I’m tired of arguing about it. I just wish we’d hire Wade Phillips now.

Agreed 

[*jason*]

(01-17-2021, 11:42 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Idk. I’m tired of arguing about it. I just wish we’d hire Wade Phillips now.

Nobody worth a damn wants to coach on Zac's staff... They see what we see, and they know more about what they're seeing.

[Au165]

Wade Phillips wasn't all that great in LA with the most dominant pass rusher in the league. They got a new DC this past year and they instantly became the #1 defense in the league. In reality, Wade Phillips hasn't run defense in close to 20 years that didn't have an elite pass rusher on it, so I am not sure what he could possibly do better here without having one.

I think it's easy to shit on Lou, and maybe is deserved at times, but we lack talent in terms of a pass rush. There was a stat that basically said we were one of the best in the league in coverage when we couldn't generate pressure, which is nice to quantify relative to other teams, the issue is we created pressure so infrequently it still put us in trouble. The idea of scheming pressure is a bit of a misnomer. You can sometimes catch guys with an exotic look here or there, but the real scheme is getting elite rushers one on one to beat their guys...we don't have any of those guys.

Unless we find some elite pass-rushing talent we are going to be bad. It has been obvious for the last few years but people were so caught up with the issues on Oline, and the names we had on D line, no one wanted to acknowledge we just don't have guys that get to the QB.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2021, 09:16 AM)Au165 Wrote: Wade Phillips wasn't all that great in LA with the most dominant pass rusher in the league. They got a new DC this past year and they instantly became the #1 defense in the league. In reality, Wade Phillips hasn't run defense in close to 20 years that didn't have an elite pass rusher on it, so I am not sure what he could possibly do better here without having one.

I think it's easy to shit on Lou, and maybe is deserved at times, but we lack talent in terms of a pass rush. There was a stat that basically said we were one of the best in the league in coverage when we couldn't generate pressure, which is nice to quantify relative to other teams, the issue is we created pressure so infrequently it still put us in trouble. The idea of scheming pressure is a bit of a misnomer. You can sometimes catch guys with an exotic look here or there, but the real scheme is getting elite rushers one on one to beat their guys...we don't have any of those guys.

Unless we find some elite pass-rushing talent we are going to be bad. It has been obvious for the last few years but people were so caught up with the issues on Oline, and the names we had on D line, no one wanted to acknowledge we just don't have guys that get to the QB.

Wade Phillips defenses since he left DAL:
2011 HOU - 4th in Points Allowed, 2nd in Yards Allowed
2012 HOU - 9th in PA, 7th in YA
2013 HOU - 24th in PA, 7th in YA
2015 DEN - 4th in PA, 1st in YA
2016 DEN - 4th in PA, 4th in YA
2017 LA - 12th in PA, 19th in YA
2018 LA - 20th in PA, 19th in YA
2019 LA - 17th in PA, 13th in YA

Lou Anarumo's defenses as DC:
2015 MIA (interim for 12 games) - 19th in PA, 25th in YA
2019 CIN - 25th in PA, 29th in YA
2020 CIN - 22nd in PA, 26th in YA

So while WP hasn't had an elite defense everywhere he's been, his resume is far better than Anarumo's.
Phillips has had a defense in the Top 5 in 3 of his 8 seasons in the past decade (37.5%). Another added when looking at Top 10 (50%).

You're definitely right that there is a lack of talent, but I still think Phillips would be able to get the same defense in a better position than Anarumo has by using the players better. I would think (or at least hope) that WP would prioritize getting at least 1-2 really good pass rushers in the draft.

[Au165]

(01-18-2021, 03:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Wade Phillips defenses since he left DAL:
2011 HOU - 4th in Points Allowed, 2nd in Yards Allowed
2012 HOU - 9th in PA, 7th in YA
2013 HOU - 24th in PA, 7th in YA
2015 DEN - 4th in PA, 1st in YA
2016 DEN - 4th in PA, 4th in YA
2017 LA - 12th in PA, 19th in YA
2018 LA - 20th in PA, 19th in YA
2019 LA - 17th in PA, 13th in YA

Lou Anarumo's defenses as DC:
2015 MIA (interim for 12 games) - 19th in PA, 25th in YA
2019 CIN - 25th in PA, 29th in YA
2020 CIN - 22nd in PA, 26th in YA

So while WP hasn't had an elite defense everywhere he's been, his resume is far better than Anarumo's.
Phillips has had a defense in the Top 5 in 3 of his 8 seasons in the past decade (37.5%). Another added when looking at Top 10 (50%).

You're definitely right that there is a lack of talent, but I still think Phillips would be able to get the same defense in a better position than Anarumo has by using the players better. I would think (or at least hope) that WP would prioritize getting at least 1-2 really good pass rushers in the draft.

So he was 5 positions better in points allowed, the only stat that really matters with the most dominant player in football? Not bad but honestly not great either considering a guy who had never DC'd before took them to #1 a year alter. Also, as I said, he has never run a defense that didn't have a hall of fame rusher on it and this one is without one so simply assuming he could create magic here with no pass rusher is wishful thinking. Let's put it this way, the league has told you what they think of Wade Phillips because the guy has been begging for a job all year and no one has even considered him from all reports. 

Is he better than Lou? Sure, I can go with that in a marginal increment right now. Is it worth ripping the scheme up for one year potentially knowing Zac may be out after this year and so would his coordinators? No, not at all. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-18-2021, 03:32 PM)Au165 Wrote: So he was 5 positions better in points allowed, the only stat that really matters with the most dominant player in football? Not bad but honestly not great either considering a guy who had never DC'd before took them to #1 a year alter. Also, as I said, he has never run a defense that didn't have a hall of fame rusher on it and this one is without one so simply assuming he could create magic here with no pass rusher is wishful thinking. Let's put it this way, the league has told you what they think of Wade Phillips because the guy has been begging for a job all year and no one has even considered him from all reports. 

Is he better than Lou? Sure, I can go with that in a marginal increment right now. Is it worth ripping the scheme up for one year potentially knowing Zac may be out after this year and so would his coordinators? No, not at all. 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but you are basically saying you are expecting the team to underwhelm again in 2021 and then Taylor and Anarumo are out for 2022, right?

[Bengalholic]

(01-18-2021, 09:16 AM)Au165 Wrote: Wade Phillips wasn't all that great in LA with the most dominant pass rusher in the league. They got a new DC this past year and they instantly became the #1 defense in the league. In reality, Wade Phillips hasn't run defense in close to 20 years that didn't have an elite pass rusher on it, so I am not sure what he could possibly do better here without having one.

I think it's easy to shit on Lou, and maybe is deserved at times, but we lack talent in terms of a pass rush. There was a stat that basically said we were one of the best in the league in coverage when we couldn't generate pressure, which is nice to quantify relative to other teams, the issue is we created pressure so infrequently it still put us in trouble. The idea of scheming pressure is a bit of a misnomer. You can sometimes catch guys with an exotic look here or there, but the real scheme is getting elite rushers one on one to beat their guys...we don't have any of those guys.

Unless we find some elite pass-rushing talent we are going to be bad. It has been obvious for the last few years but people were so caught up with the issues on Oline, and the names we had on D line, no one wanted to acknowledge we just don't have guys that get to the QB.

If it were just issues with getting to the QB, it would be a little easier to give Lou somewhat of a break...but over his 2 years, they're not only dead last in sacks, but also dead last in rush yards allowed, and have given up almost 5 yards a pop. 

It's one thing to not be able to get to the QB or to not be able to stop the run, but when you can't do either - it seems like there's a troubling combination of issues going on...from players, to coaching, to scheme, to fundamental execution.

[Au165]

(01-18-2021, 03:35 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but you are basically saying you are expecting the team to underwhelm again in 2021 and then Taylor and Anarumo are out for 2022, right?

I'm saying I think the continuity of Lou's scheme will produce better results than switching to Phillips in a one-year run (continuity always wins if personnel are equal) and so if we think this is a do-or-die year (as many here believe) you're better off staying with continuity. If things fall flat on their face again it probably wasn't because the defense was 5 spots lower in scoring defense (hypothetically) than the other scheme its because the personnel is flat-out bad and we need to reimagine the whole organization. You don't want guys working in potentially 3 schemes in a 3 year period, that is how you ruin careers. Also, and this sounds bad, but he is 73 and the last thing you want is an assistant literally dropping dead in the middle of the year.

[Au165]

(01-18-2021, 03:42 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: If it were just issues with getting to the QB, it would be a little easier to give Lou somewhat of a break...but over his 2 years, they're not only dead last in sacks, but also dead last in rush yards allowed, and have given up almost 5 yards a pop. 

It's one thing to not be able to get to the QB or to not be able to stop the run, but when you can't do either - it seems like there's a troubling combination of issues going on...from players, to coaching, to scheme, to fundamental execution.

It all starts with getting to the QB, even the running piece. You get gashed in the run when you have to play two high shells all game. You have to play two high all game when you can't put guys on islands. You can't put guys on islands if you can't get to the QB. There is also the analytics take on it, let them run because you don't win that way. It's not unimportant being able to stop the run but teams that subscribe to analytics will tell you they will let teams run all day over passing. 

Again, not saying he is a great or even good coach but the continuity of scheme adds more value if there is potential the whole staff could be gone in one season.

[Bengalholic]

(01-18-2021, 03:47 PM)Au165 Wrote: It all starts with getting to the QB, even the running piece. You get gashed in the run when you have to play two high shells all game. You have to play two high all game when you can't put guys on islands. You can't put guys on islands if you can't get to the QB. There is also the analytics take on it, let them run because you don't win that way. It's not unimportant being able to stop the run but teams that subscribe to analytics will tell you they will let teams run all day over passing. 

Again, not saying he is a great or even good coach but the continuity of scheme adds more value if there is potential the whole staff could be gone in one season.

The end results would also seem to suggest that teams who can't stop the run don't generally do well.

Of the 11 teams that allowed 2,000 or more rush yards, 9 allowed 418 or more points and none had a winning record.

Of the 12 teams that allowed 1,800 or less, 8 had winning records and made the playoffs. 

Allowing teams to run doesn't end up working out very well if you're really bad at stopping them. 

[Au165]

(01-18-2021, 04:13 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: The end results would also seem to suggest that teams who can't stop the run don't generally do well.

Of the 11 teams that allowed 2,000 or more rush yards, 9 allowed 418 or more points and none had a winning record.

Of the 12 teams that allowed 1,800 or less, 8 had winning records and made the playoffs. 

Allowing teams to run doesn't end up working out very well if you're really bad at stopping them. 

This goes to the horrible stat Lapham used to use about “when X gets Y carries the Bengals are such and such”. Teams that are ahead tend to run more than teams that are trailing. It would then stand to reason that teams who are well out ahead give up less rushing yards because teams have to chase, and they run more to shorten the game. If you look at the teams left in the playoffs, I saw a stat this morning that all 4 are top 6 in essentially first down passing adjusted for a non favorable situation or basically taking out 1st and goal from the one. Basically, teams that pass and don’t just run to open drives have had great success this season. Passing wins in the league right now and stopping the pass far outweighs stopping the run because the run is best stopped as a function of the score.

[Bengalholic]

(01-18-2021, 05:05 PM)Au165 Wrote: This goes to the horrible stat Lapham used to use about “when X gets Y carries the Bengals are such and such”. Teams that are ahead tend to run more than teams that are trailing. It would then stand to reason that teams who are well out ahead give up less rushing yards because teams have to chase, and they run more to shorten the game. If you look at the teams left in the playoffs, I saw a stat this morning that all 4 are top 6 in essentially first down passing adjusted for a non favorable situation or basically taking out 1st and goal from the one. Basically, teams that pass and don’t just run to open drives have had great success this season. Passing wins in the league right now and stopping the pass far outweighs stopping the run because the run is best stopped as a function of the score.

Yes, teams that trail on a regular basis tend to be rushed on more. Those teams generally also have trouble stopping the run, which plays a big part in those same teams losing a lot of games. It's one thing for a team to run on you when they're up. It's another thing to not be able to do anything about it.

Look back at the Bengals-Steelers games over the past couple of decades. How many times did the Steelers get up and then take over the game by running the ball at will. Being able to run the ball when you have to is still an important part of the game. Not being able to stop the run in those situations as a defense is going to guarantee losses much of the time.

More than that, and we've heard players talk about it, getting run on at will is demoralizing to a defense. 

[Au165]

(01-18-2021, 05:18 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yes, teams that trail on a regular basis tend to be rushed on more. Those teams generally also have trouble stopping the run, which plays a big part in those same teams losing a lot of games. It's one thing for a team to run on you when they're up. It's another thing to not be able to do anything about it.

Look back at the Bengals-Steelers games over the past couple of decades. How many times did the Steelers get up and then take over the game by running the ball at will. Being able to run the ball when you have to is still an important part of the game. Not being able to stop the run in those situations as a defense is going to guarantee losses much of the time.

More than that, and we've heard players talk about it, getting run on at will is demoralizing to a defense. 

I get it, I am simply telling you what the analytics say. It's the way the league is heading and they simply say not to worry about the run (there is a bunch of data behind it). It's also why running backs are devalued by analytics because the analytics say running results are more a function of defensive box count than the individual player which is why paying backs is dumb. That goes back to what I was saying about our ability to play a two-high shell versus a single high because so much of run defense is the ability to play a box heavier than your opponent can block. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-18-2021, 04:13 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: The end results would also seem to suggest that teams who can't stop the run don't generally do well.

Of the 11 teams that allowed 2,000 or more rush yards, 9 allowed 418 or more points and none had a winning record.

Of the 12 teams that allowed 1,800 or less, 8 had winning records and made the playoffs. 

Allowing teams to run doesn't end up working out very well if you're really bad at stopping them. 

Just have to say this is what I believe to a T.

I absolutely hate getting ran all over and I think most Defenses do, it is demoralizing more so than getting beat in the passing 
game in today's NFL. If you can stop the run, you can force teams to pass and the pass rushers can pin their ears back and get
after the passer. With our Secondary which is our strength we could suddenly turn our D into one of the best instead of one of 
the worst if we can stop the run first.

Add run stoppers and pass rushers this Offseason and we could start getting back on track even with Lou, although I still want
Wade Phillips way more. But hey, we are Bengal fans, never get what we want lol

[SunsetBengal]

(01-18-2021, 03:42 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: If it were just issues with getting to the QB, it would be a little easier to give Lou somewhat of a break...but over his 2 years, they're not only dead last in sacks, but also dead last in rush yards allowed, and have given up almost 5 yards a pop. 

It's one thing to not be able to get to the QB or to not be able to stop the run, but when you can't do either - it seems like there's a troubling combination of issues going on...from players, to coaching, to scheme, to fundamental execution.

Good points, 'Holic.  I will add this point though;  Defenses that are strong against the run also seem to do a pretty good job of getting to the QB.  

From my point of view, the failure in both aspects is a 3 force vector.  Part of it might be a lack of superior talent, which the front office tried to rectify by signing DJ Reader and going heavy on LB in the draft.  That part looked good, until the pandemic inhibited their ability to practice and mold as a unit, and then the injuries started accumulating.  Part II is coaching and leadership.  It became very apparent with the Dunlap situation that there was a serious disconnect between the staff and the players.  This came long after we had all had our suspicions from watching the product that was presented on the field.  Part III is an ineptness on the part of team management.  Rather than taking the bull by the horns and making some wholesale changes in the coaching staff, the Bengals front office took a route similar to getting anything major accomplished through modern medicine and insurance procedures.  I.E. instead of sending you straight to an orthopedic to fix your backwards hanging elbow, the decided to try "rehab and therapy" first, meaning rather than canning Lou and going after a bona fide DC, they decided to just draft a few mid-round LBs and to now bring in a slight upgrade at DL coach..

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-18-2021, 03:32 PM)Au165 Wrote: So he was 5 positions better in points allowed, the only stat that really matters

Actually, most people (and sites) tend to favor "yards allowed" over "points allowed" when trying to place a singular value on the defensive performance.  In fact, a lot of place you go to, when you're looking for team defense ranks, will default to yards allowed.

Why you may ask?  Well, because of the following...

1.) Most sites give "team stats".  And as such, all scoring is included in "points allowed".  This would include special team scores, pick sixes, fumbles returned for touchdown ect.  It defaults to teams stats rather than solely defensive stats.

2.) Field position.  If you go strictly by scoring you're ignoring field position, or a particular defense being put in untimely and worse positions. 

Say one defensive goes out after a turnover by their offense at their own 20 and end up giving up a TD, and another defense goes out with their opponent on the 20 after kickoff, and proceeds to let them march down the field 70 yards and kick a field goal.  Which defense did better?  The one who gave up 20 yards and allowed 7, or the one who gave up 70 yards and allowed 3?

There's no right answer here, as I understand both are important.  But I do think you're mistaken if you think points allowed is all that matters when grading a defense.  Yardage tends to be much easier to digest, although it's full of imperfections too (Ex: Time of possession).

[Wes Mantooth]

As much as the Ravens game lingers in people's minds when it comes to Lou (It should, it was a pathetic effort) I keep going back to the Cleveland game where Mayfield carved them up from the 2nd quarter on.

That was honestly one of the worst called defensive games I've ever seen. I think Mayfield had one incompletion the entire 2nd half and that was on a spiked ball, so it was intentional.

He stated out 0-5 and yet still finished 22-28, going for 22 for 23 from there on out. Threw 5 TD's. Not a single INT either. All this played with a broken rib and OBJ exiting the game early with an injury (changes game plan on the spot).

They got the ball with about a minute to go and marched right down the field. For whatever reason, Lou decided to blitz on the final play with only 11 seconds left and them needing a TD (we were up 4). Mayfield hit a guy for like 25 yards, TD, GAME OVER.

He had zero answers. Lou is a bum of DC and should have been fired after that game. And should have definitely been fired after Baltimore. In fact, he should have fired after last season.

NOWHERE but here does a man that has produced these last two years keep his job. It's an absolute joke. And even worse is nowhere else does Taylor keep his job either. But you would have at least thought if they weren't going to move on him then move on from Lou. But nah, better keep the whole gang together.