Wade Phillips wants a job

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-18-2021, 08:04 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Good points, 'Holic.  I will add this point though;  Defenses that are strong against the run also seem to do a pretty good job of getting to the QB.  

From my point of view, the failure in both aspects is a 3 force vector.  Part of it might be a lack of superior talent, which the front office tried to rectify by signing DJ Reader and going heavy on LB in the draft.  That part looked good, until the pandemic inhibited their ability to practice and mold as a unit, and then the injuries started accumulating.  Part II is coaching and leadership.  It became very apparent with the Dunlap situation that there was a serious disconnect between the staff and the players.  This came long after we had all had our suspicions from watching the product that was presented on the field.  Part III is an ineptness on the part of team management.  Rather than taking the bull by the horns and making some wholesale changes in the coaching staff, the Bengals front office took a route similar to getting anything major accomplished through modern medicine and insurance procedures.  I.E. instead of sending you straight to an orthopedic to fix your backwards hanging elbow, the decided to try "rehab and therapy" first, meaning rather than canning Lou and going after a bona fide DC, they decided to just draft a few mid-round LBs and to now bring in a slight upgrade at DL coach..

There are a lot of factors going into why we were so bad getting to the passer and stopping the run that is for sure.

I do like the Hobby lobby though. Think he could be a major upgrade at DL coach. 

Also like our young LB's especially Wilson and ADG, Pratt disappointed me a bit in 2020 at times.

Don't think Pratt was as bad as his PFF grade but thought he would be our breakout D player, didn't happen, it was Bates.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-18-2021, 03:44 PM)Au165 Wrote: I'm saying I think the continuity of Lou's scheme will produce better results than switching to Phillips in a one-year run (continuity always wins if personnel are equal) and so if we think this is a do-or-die year (as many here believe) you're better off staying with continuity. If things fall flat on their face again it probably wasn't because the defense was 5 spots lower in scoring defense (hypothetically) than the other scheme its because the personnel is flat-out bad and we need to reimagine the whole organization. You don't want guys working in potentially 3 schemes in a 3 year period, that is how you ruin careers. Also, and this sounds bad, but he is 73 and the last thing you want is an assistant literally dropping dead in the middle of the year.

Bresnehan led a unit that ranked 27th (yards allowed) in 2007. Zimmer came in the following year and we instantly saw a massive jump to 12th.

Wade Phillips has been the new DC in town on 10 occasions during his career. Average rank in yards allowed: 11.2

Continuity is overrated. People only say that because (a) we have ownership that is allergic to change, so people try to rationalize and make themselves feel better about the change that isn't coming, and (b) a surprising amount of people parrot the propaganda spread by Hobson and the team.

I'd understand the continuity argument with a good or decent coach. Lou has clearly shown that he is not that. Wade Phillips' track record vs Lou's isn't close enough to justify continuity over what looks like a clear upgrade.

Unfortunately, this isn't a real choice, cuz Bengals.

[Au165]

(01-18-2021, 08:30 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: There's no right answer here, as I understand both are important.  But I do think you're mistaken if you think points allowed is all that matters when grading a defense.  Yardage tends to be much easier to digest, although it's full of imperfections too (Ex: Time of possession).

Yea, see I am going full analytics on you here as time of possession is one of those fake stats that actually mean nothing but get propped up (Similar to equating number of carries to success). This is actually not a really new understanding in the analytics community but one that still seems really foreign to many. As for your main argument, my basis of referring strictly to PPG was because the two metrics presented were PPG and YPG. YPG has no value whatsoever as the game theory will tell you that yards can't lose you the game only scoring can so that is why in context PPG is all that matters. There are more advanced metrics out there that adjust PPG versus field position that gives you an expected PPG vs actual PPG which is a better indicator of a team's ability to prevent scoring on defense but that was not a ranking we were comparing.

We could go on and on about analytics and the way the game is viewed but that's like a whole other thread. Getting back into this thread, if people don't agree with my analytical view of it just look at what the rest of the NFL is telling you. Wade Phillips has begged for a job for a year and no one has hired him on as anything. I think that is the NFL telling you what they think of Wade Phillips right now. The NFL probably wouldn't hire Lou on either, maybe or maybe not, but the point is you don't swap out bad parts for more bad parts when there is collateral damage just from the act of swapping. If the other coach being discussed was someone who wasn't 73 and out of the league for a year I think there would be a better argument for swapping out Lou.

[Au165]

(01-19-2021, 01:41 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Continuity is overrated. People only say that because (a) we have ownership that is allergic to change, so people try to rationalize and make themselves feel better about the change that isn't coming, and (b) a surprising amount of people parrot the propaganda spread by Hobson and the team.

I'd understand the continuity argument with a good or decent coach. Lou has clearly shown that he is not that. Wade Phillips' track record vs Lou's isn't close enough to justify continuity over what looks like a clear upgrade.

It's not propaganda it is fact. I have stated here before, I know guys on the backend of NFL teams through some connections as well as a scout or two, continuity 100% matters and I hear it often. The real propaganda is fans who think you can swap pieces in and out in mass and things just magically work. It goes to show the lack of understanding of the general fanbase when it comes to the install required to put a scheme in or bring people up to speed and the amount of communication that is needed to execute any scheme. Careers are ruined by scheme switches year after year after year.

[Shake n Blake]

(01-19-2021, 09:42 AM)Au165 Wrote: It's not propaganda it is fact. I have stated here before, I know guys on the backend of NFL teams through some connections as well as a scout or two, continuity 100% matters and I hear it often. The real propaganda is fans who think you can swap pieces in and out in mass and things just magically work. It goes to show the lack of understanding of the general fanbase when it comes to the install required to put a scheme in or bring people up to speed and the amount of communication that is needed to execute any scheme. Careers are ruined by scheme switches year after year after year.

You can have your mysterious sources, I'll stand by my actual, you know...facts.

Lou sucks. Continuity won't change that. Wade has almost never sucked, even as a first year DC. It's really simple: Good coaches are good, bad coaches are bad.

These are professionals. Everyone prefers continuity and comfort...but they can deal with change.

Again, I'd understand the continuity argument if Lou were even mediocre. Thankfully, the team didn't value continuity so much that they stuck with some of the awful coaches we've had through the years...such as Dlck Lebeau (HC), Terryl Austin, Ken Zampese, etc.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(01-20-2021, 11:29 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You can have your mysterious sources, I'll stand by my actual, you know...facts.

Lou sucks. Continuity won't change that. Wade has almost never sucked, even as a first year DC. It's really simple: Good coaches are good, bad coaches are bad.

These are professionals. Everyone prefers continuity and comfort...but they can deal with change.

Again, I'd understand the continuity argument if Lou were even mediocre. Thankfully, the team didn't value continuity so much that they stuck with some of the awful coaches we've had through the years...such as Dlck Lebeau (HC), Terryl Austin, Ken Zampese, etc.

[XenoMorph]

(01-20-2021, 11:29 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: You can have your mysterious sources, I'll stand by my actual, you know...facts.

Lou sucks. Continuity won't change that. Wade has almost never sucked, even as a first year DC. It's really simple: Good coaches are good, bad coaches are bad.

These are professionals. Everyone prefers continuity and comfort...but they can deal with change.

Again, I'd understand the continuity argument if Lou were even mediocre. Thankfully, the team didn't value continuity so much that they stuck with some of the awful coaches we've had through the years...such as Dlck Lebeau (HC), Terryl Austin, Ken Zampese, etc.

Yeah should have gotten  a new head coach  continuity of bad is still bad

[Essex Johnson]

Guess Wade not too hot, still wanting a job...

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-19-2021, 09:42 AM)Au165 Wrote: Careers are ruined by scheme switches year after year after year.

Careers are also ruined by bad coaches destroying a players talent and development with their terrible schemes and coaching for 3+ years.

Aside from Bates, nobody else on the defense has improved under Lou. Most of them have actually gotten worse, and he drove away one of the only 2 Pro Bowlers he inherited and turned the other into an afterthought.

[Essex Johnson]

(01-23-2021, 08:23 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Careers are also ruined by bad coaches destroying a players talent and development with their terrible schemes and coaching for 3+ years.

Aside from Bates, nobody else on the defense has improved under Lou. Most of them have actually gotten worse, and he drove away one of the only 2 Pro Bowlers he inherited and turned the other into an afterthought.

I question that, Pratt improved this year, Byne had a career year, Phillip's had a better year. The rookie draft group was rated best overall by PFF and that included a few der starters. 
That does not mean a full fledge endorsement  but we did not regress under Lou,  2018 before Lou we were 30th then  25 in 2019  to 22 this year in one def ranking  site..

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-24-2021, 09:28 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I question that, Pratt improved this year, Byne had a career year, Phillip's had a better year. The rookie draft group was rated best overall by PFF and that included a few der starters. 
That does not mean a full fledge endorsement  but we did not regress under Lou,  2018 before Lou we were 30th then  25 in 2019  to 22 this year in one def ranking  site..

By what possible metric? Bynes had a terrible PFF grade (52.6) and they’ve usually been pretty high on him in recent years. He didn’t have a career high in a single category other than total tackles. Not passes defended, not tackles for a loss, not INT’s, not sacks, not forced fumbles, not QB hits. He basically just racked up more tackles from starting all 16 games (something he’s never done before).

The second bold is also mostly false. That ranking was almost entirely because of Burrow and Tee. Logan Wilson started all of 2 games (and PFF was even somewhat critical of him in their breakdown of our picks). ADG also only started 2 games all season.

[Sled21]

(01-23-2021, 08:23 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Careers are also ruined by bad coaches destroying a players talent and development with their terrible schemes and coaching for 3+ years.

Aside from Bates, nobody else on the defense has improved under Lou. Most of them have actually gotten worse, and he drove away one of the only 2 Pro Bowlers he inherited and turned the other into an afterthought.

Blaming Lou for Geno tearing his rotator cuff is really stretching it.....

[Essex Johnson]

(01-24-2021, 09:51 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: By what possible metric? Bynes had a terrible PFF grade (52.6) and they’ve usually been pretty high on him in recent years. He didn’t have a career high in a single category other than total tackles. Not passes defended, not tackles for a loss, not INT’s, not sacks, not forced fumbles, not QB hits. He basically just racked up more tackles from starting all 16 games (something he’s never done before).

The second bold is also mostly false. That ranking was almost entirely because of Burrow and Tee. Logan Wilson started all of 2 games (and PFF was even somewhat critical of him in their breakdown of our picks). ADG also only started 2 games all season.

So tackles now are not important if you play a lot.. he did not regress and PFF took in whole draft from what I read and other teams later picks weighed in also.. again you praise PFF on the negative but ignore that PFF was on total draft...  

And as i pointed out the defense has improved over two years which you ignored no surprise  still not good  enough pace for sure which I also pointed out but we have not regressed under Lou.. we just have not moved the bar enough.....

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-24-2021, 05:14 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So tackles now are not important if you play a lot.. he did not regress

Really?

1. The worst defensive grade in his career
2. The most missed tackles in his career (13)
3. No forced fumbles
4. Gave up an 83.3% completion rate. 2nd worst in his career with at least 10 balls thrown his way.
5. Gave up the 2nd most yards in his career. 
6. 2nd monst YPC in his career with at least 10 balls thrown his way.
7. 2nd most yards after catch in his career. 
8. Gave up 2 TDs with no INTs.
9. Gave up the 2nd highest quarterback rating against, in his career. 

But he didn't regress just because he had the most tackles in his career, while playing the 2nd most snaps in his career? 

Nah. He wasn't good. I lost count of the number of times he was out of position and missed a gap to give up a big run or how many times he was blocked right out of the play because he couldn't disengage. 

All this, coming right after the best year of his career in 2019 with the Ravens. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(01-24-2021, 12:19 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Blaming Lou for Geno tearing his rotator cuff is really stretching it.....

I didn't blame him for the rotator cuff, nice try. Lou has been here for 2 years and Atkins took a dip in the first year. Atkins was cranking out 9 sack/10+ TFL/20 QB hit seasons like clockwork before Lou came and he put up 4.5/4/10 in 2019.

Aside from Bates, nobody has gotten better under Lou. Heck, even Bates was terrible his first year under Lou, completely forgot how to tackle. He only improved in 2020.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-24-2021, 05:14 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: So tackles now are not important if you play a lot.. he did not regress and PFF took in whole draft from what I read and other teams later picks weighed in also.. again you praise PFF on the negative but ignore that PFF was on total draft...  

And as i pointed out the defense has improved over two years which you ignored no surprise  still not good  enough pace for sure which I also pointed out but we have not regressed under Lou.. we just have not moved the bar enough.....

You said Bynes had a career year. He didn’t. He was terrible. It’s that simple.

As for the PFF draft class rankings here’s what they had to say about Logan Wilson:

The Bengals' first pick of the third round, Logan Wilson of Wyoming, wasn’t as much of an impact player, finding a place as a rotational piece at off-ball linebacker before suffering an injury that ended his season in Week 14. Wilson's run defense was perhaps the biggest weakness, given that he earned a 48.1 grade in that facet, but his blitzing was also largely ineffective. Wilson was sent to rush the passer 47 times yet came away with just three pressures in Year 1.

Add that to the fact that Wilson only played 32% of the defensive snaps...then yes we mostly were at the top because of Burrow and Tee. Like I said.