Gotta Keep Building through FA

[Wire22Wire]

Next year is even more critical than this year. The 2021 cap is projected at 175M, down nearly 33M due to revenue loss.

They have 36 players under contract next year.

Spending 198M this year on a 208 M Cap

Teams are going to struggle mightily getting under the cap

This is good for teams like the Bengals because there should be less competition for prime FAs

Teams may have to cut mid-high priced players to get under the new number


Prime Cut Candidates:

Dunlap
Gio
Uzomah
Hart

Those alone free up 25M
AJ Green saves another 18

198-43 = Get Bengals to 155

[SunsetBengal]

(10-05-2020, 08:19 PM)Wire22Wire Wrote: Next year is even more critical than this year.  The 2021 cap is projected at 175M, down nearly 33M due to revenue loss.

They have 36 players under contract next year.

Spending 198M this year on a 208 M Cap

Teams are going to struggle mightily getting under the cap

This is good for teams like the Bengals because there should be less competition for prime FAs

Teams may have to cut mid-high priced players to get under the new number


Prime Cut Candidates:

Dunlap
Gio
Uzomah
Hart

Those alone free up 25M
AJ Green saves another 18

198-43 = Get Bengals to 155

Might want to pump the brakes on that arithmetic there.  We don't know what the cap will be reduced to, after all of the lost revenue from all of these empty and sparsely populated stadiums this season.

[Wire22Wire]

(10-05-2020, 08:47 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Might want to pump the brakes on that arithmetic there.  We don't know what the cap will be reduced to, after all of the lost revenue from all of these empty and sparsely populated stadiums this season.

It’s projected at 175, Based on the lost stadium revenue.

I didn’t make this up, that’s the floor

It could be adjusted up from there

[SunsetBengal]

(10-05-2020, 08:49 PM)Wire22Wire Wrote: It’s projected at 175, Based on the lost stadium revenue.  

I didn’t make this up, that’s the floor

It could be adjusted up from there

Is that really the floor?  I mean corporations work off of projected profits and losses all the time, and sometimes they deviate from the projections further than models suggest they should.

[Wire22Wire]

(10-05-2020, 09:30 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Is that really the floor?  I mean corporations work off of projected profits and losses all the time, and sometimes they deviate from the projections further than models suggest they should.

Instead of replying incorrectly multiple times w opinions and falsehoods.

Why don’t you do some quick research. And thanks for teaching me about corporate finance, that was earth shattering. Maybe you should pump the breaks on posting in this thread

‘The NFL and NFLPA reached an agreement late last week where the 2021 salary cap will have a floor of $175 million. The revenue loss will be spread out the next three years. If revenues are better than expected, the 2021 salary cap could be higher. This year's salary cap will remain at $198.2 million.Jul 29, 2020’

[Wes Mantooth]

I can't see the cap number going any lower than that. In fact, I think both the players union, and cap cash strapped owners will fight any decrease tooth and nail.

I think even getting to the reported 175 is going to be a struggle. I'm not sure how a lot of teams are going to work around this, without flooding the market with free agents.

Fwiw, I read somewhere where ticket sales and concenssion only make up about 15% of revenue. So I'm assuming most teams are still going to be enjoying a healthy profit. I don't think anyone is working in the red.

I guess we'll have to see how it all shakes out. But regardless, the Bengals are shaping up to be in a better spot than most, with or without the decrease.

[McC]

(10-05-2020, 08:19 PM)Wire22Wire Wrote: Next year is even more critical than this year.  The 2021 cap is projected at 175M, down nearly 33M due to revenue loss.

They have 36 players under contract next year.

Spending 198M this year on a 208 M Cap

Teams are going to struggle mightily getting under the cap

This is good for teams like the Bengals because there should be less competition for prime FAs

Teams may have to cut mid-high priced players to get under the new number


Prime Cut Candidates:

Dunlap
Gio
Uzomah
Hart

Those alone free up 25M
AJ Green saves another 18

198-43 = Get Bengals to 155

I'll let you know on Dunlap at the end of the year.  Gio, definitely not.  If they want his contract to be worth it, use him more!

Uzomah, no.  He can't be getting big money.  Before he got hurt, he was coming on strong.  Provided he comes back from the Achilles. You definitely keep him.

Hart, if you find an upgrade.  

[McC]

I say you build through the draft and supplement with FA. That's how the good teams do it.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-05-2020, 09:40 PM)McC Wrote: 1.) Uzomah, no.  He can't be getting big money.  Before he got hurt, he was coming on strong.  Provided he comes back from the Achilles. You definitely keep him.

2.) Hart, if you find an upgrade.  

1.) It's 100% a yes, unless they let loyalty get in the way.  Why on Earth would pay a guy 5 mil dollars, with his history, coming off an achilies injury.  IMHO, he was an obvious cut before he got hurt.  Now it's almost unforgiveable to keep him on the books.

2.) You can definitely find an upgrade over Bobby Hart with his cap savings.  The guys is currently making about 4 times his actual worth.

[Wire22Wire]

(10-05-2020, 09:43 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: 1.) It's 100% a yes, unless they let loyalty get in the way.  Why on Earth would pay a guy 5 mil dollars, with his history, coming off an achilies injury.  IMHO, he was an obvious cut before he got hurt.  Now it's almost unforgiveable to keep him on the books.

2.) You can definitely find an upgrade over Bobby Hart with his cap savings.  The guys is currently making about 4 times his actual worth.

Exactly

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-05-2020, 09:43 PM)McC Wrote: I say you build through the draft and supplement with FA.  That's how the good teams do it.

You do both.  That is how good teams to do it.

At the end of the day, if you've drafted so well that you have no leftover space, then of course FA is used less.

But when you have cap dollars at your disposal you use them.  We've got a 4 year window where Joe Burrow is criminally underpaid, and a 5th year where we don't have to mortgage the farm. 

This window is where you "go all in" and can be more agressive in the approach.

What we can't do is leave dollars unspent.  Or keep overpaid under-performers on the books.  Or blindly give out loyalty contract to familiar faces.

No more rollover, no more hoarding money for a "Andy and AJ fund", no more tagging people like AJ Green.

[McC]

(10-05-2020, 09:49 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: You do both.  That is how good teams to do it.

At the end of the day, if you've drafted so well that you have no leftover space, then of course FA is used less.

But when you have cap dollars at your disposal you use them.  We've got a 4 year window where Joe Burrow is criminally underpaid, and a 5th year where we don't have to mortgage the farm. 

This window is where you "go all in" and can be more agressive in the approach.

What we can't do is leave dollars unspent.  Or keep overpaid under-performers on the books.  Or blindly give out loyalty contract to familiar faces.

No more rollover, no more hoarding money for a "Andy and AJ fund", no more tagging people like AJ Green.

Isn't that exactly what I said?

They spent 150 mil last off season. That's not aggressive?

[Sled21]

(10-05-2020, 09:40 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I can't see the cap number going any lower than that.  In fact, I think both the players union, and cap cash strapped owners will fight any decrease tooth and nail.  

I think even getting to the reported 175 is going to be a struggle.  I'm not sure how a lot of teams are going to work around this, without flooding the market with free agents.

Fwiw, I read somewhere where ticket sales and concenssion only make up about 15% of revenue.  So I'm assuming most teams are still going to be enjoying a healthy profit.  I don't think anyone is working in the red.

I guess we'll have to see how it all shakes out.  But regardless, the Bengals are shaping up to be in a better spot than most, with or without the decrease.

Of course, the elephant in the room that the NFL will not talk about is loss of tv revenue and ratings continue to plummet amongst political protests.

[PikesPeakUC]

(10-05-2020, 09:56 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Of course, the elephant in the room that the NFL will not talk about is loss of tv revenue and ratings continue to plummet amongst political protests.

Plummet is a little strong here, though they have gone down a little. I doubt the NFL is concerned. The amount of money that networks will pay for live sports, especially an entity like the NFL, continues to rise. Owners may feign the loss of revenue at the stadium as a way to keep the cap lower, though. 

[SladeX]

I would like to see OL be the FA priority. Get known, good additions to the line.

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-05-2020, 09:51 PM)McC Wrote: Isn't that exactly what I said?

They spent 150 mil last off season.  That's not aggressive?

No, I don't that is exactly what you said.  At least it didn't read that way to me.

The OP said we have to keep building through FA (continue this year's trend in being agressive).

Your post read as almost a counter to that, that our focus remain on the draft and that free agency is a supplement.  Basically, an afterthought or added bonus. 

Our focus to needs to equal, especially right now.  Both are important.

This year was super agressive.  I never said it wasn't.  I loved it.  I think, just like OP, we should continue the approach when we have the cap space available.  I would assume if you simply agreed you would have said so, but it doesn't appear that way.

If I misread your post, or am misrepresenting it, my apoligies. :andy:

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-05-2020, 09:56 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Of course, the elephant in the room that the NFL will not talk about is loss of tv revenue and ratings continue to plummet amongst political protests.

One big thing to consider is, if there is indeed a signficant decrease in ratings, the owners won't really feel the impact until the next round of negotiations take place with the networks.

Unless there is some sort of clause where networks can wiggle out of a specific amount, due to ratings decline, I'm assuming the league is seeing no change in revenue there.

I guess the question is, when do the contracts expire, and how much of a decline are they really seeing?

[McC]

(10-05-2020, 10:33 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: No, I don't that is exactly what you said.  At least it didn't read that way to me.

The OP said we have to keep building through FA (continue this year's trend in being agressive).

Your post read as almost a counter to that, that our focus remain on the draft and that free agency is a supplement.  Basically, an afterthought or added bonus. 

Our focus to needs to equal, especially right now.  Both are important.

This year was super agressive.  I never said it wasn't.  I loved it.  I think, just like OP, we should continue the approach when we have the cap space available.  I would assume if you simply agreed you would have said so, but it doesn't appear that way.

If I misread your post, or am misrepresenting it, my apoligies. :andy:

No.  You're right.  My bad.  What I should have said was the next time a franchise builds a championship team through FA will be the first. 

Smart teams build through the draft, maybe make a well timed trade and sign a couple FA's at positions of need. 

NOBODY goes anywhere building through FA.  There is a big difference between building a team and completing a team.

[Wire22Wire]

(10-05-2020, 11:22 PM)McC Wrote: No.  You're right.  My bad.  What I should have said was the next time a franchise builds a championship team through FA will be the first. 

Smart teams build through the draft, maybe make a well timed trade and sign a couple FA's at positions of need. 

NOBODY goes anywhere building through FA.  There is a big difference between building a team and completing a team.

We have far to many holes on Oline and defense to build through the draft.

What are you taking about?

Are you seriously advocating for spending multiple years w burrow at qb hoping to stack a few great drafts to compete?

They need to buy an oline and a deep threat. Then they can check more boxes off in the draft

[NATI BENGALS]

Its too early to say. We have some huge holes that will open up

WJ3, Mackensie Alexander, Leshaun Sims , Torry Mctyer, and Tony Brown (RFA) are all FA. Thats like all of our CBs other than Waynes and Phillips.

Could be major turn over at WR too which wouldn't be ideal for a young QB. AJ, Ross, Erickson, and Thomas will all be FA.

Add in those cuts and we are only 20mil under the projected cap and we have to replace all these guys...

It will be tough