Gotta Keep Building through FA

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(10-06-2020, 12:40 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I think you can add Dunlap to this list.

He's due 13.5 million next year, and would carry no dead weight if he were released.

I know many on here like him, but there is no way he's worth that amount.  If he were to be released he'd be lucky to see half of this amount on the open market.  So matter how much some say that like him, why would you pay a guy over twice his worth.  (Fwiw. I honestly think he would struggle to see 5 mil per in free agency in 2021.)


I think you can take his savings and put a very healthy chunk of it towards Hubbard and/or Lawson.

I agree that Dunlap wouldn't fetch anywhere near that amount on the open market but I feel like it will cost a similar amount to replace him.

It's like Dre Kirkpatrick last year. He was set to earn $11m from memory. Everyone agreed that he wasn't worth that much but it cost $14m a year to replace him (plus nearly $3m in dead money) and the jury is out as to whether Trae Waynes is actually an upgrade.

Now that's not an argument not to make the change - Waynes is hopefully a better scheme fit and likely we'd be replacing Dunlap with someone better suited to a 3-4 front - but rather an argument that it is not necessarily a saving once you've factored in the cost of replacement. DEs aren't cheap.

Maybe the best option is to sign someone on a one year prove it deal (like Mackensie Alexander) whilst drafting a potential long term successor.

What is holding them back though is the lack of draft capital to draft that long term successor. There are so many spots they'd like to address in the draft. The rebuild started with changing QB but due to the front office's mismanagement they are attempting to rebuild with just 14 picks over 2 years. No compensatory picks, no picks acquired for veterans no longer part of the plans. Eifert, Dalton, Ross, Price and now probably Green, Dunlop and Atkins - 5 first rounders, a franchise record sack holder and a future Hall of Famer and will they end up with so much as a 5th round compensatory pick for the lot? Instead they have at least two holes on the O-line, probably the same again on the D-line and CB and only 3-4 picks to fill all those holes and draft for the future.

This is the window to make the most of Burrow's rookie contract and due to a lack of planning ahead they are going to waste it.

[Housh]

(10-05-2020, 08:19 PM)Wire22Wire Wrote: Next year is even more critical than this year. The 2021 cap is projected at 175M, down nearly 33M due to revenue loss.

They have 36 players under contract next year.

Spending 198M this year on a 208 M Cap

Teams are going to struggle mightily getting under the cap

This is good for teams like the Bengals because there should be less competition for prime FAs

Teams may have to cut mid-high priced players to get under the new number


Prime Cut Candidates:

Dunlap
Gio
Uzomah
Hart

Those alone free up 25M
AJ Green saves another 18

198-43 = Get Bengals to 155

I’d cut all 5 names listed here. ANY TE with any skill will look good with Burrow. AJ is washed. I’m confident we can find another Gio in the draft, and Dunlap is still up in the air to me. His price will likely be 7 mill per and idk if that’s smart to pay at his age. Hart as we all know is likely gone. He’d have to finish strong not to be cut

[Wire22Wire]

(10-09-2020, 09:55 AM)Housh Wrote: I’d cut all 5 names listed here. ANY TE with any skill will look good with Burrow. AJ is washed. I’m confident we can find another Gio in the draft, and Dunlap is still up in the air to me. His price will likely be 7 mill per and idk if that’s smart to pay at his age. Hart as we all know is likely gone. He’d have to finish strong not to be cut

Agree 100%   Just hope the FO can be as discerning and logical about their initial window w Burrow, and fastest way to being a contender 

[Wes Mantooth]

(10-09-2020, 12:59 PM)Wire22Wire Wrote: Just hope the FO can be as discerning and logical about their initial window w Burrow, and fastest way to being a contender 

This.

I don't think some people realize what an opportunity we have, and how short the window is to fully take advantage of it.

Years 2, 3 and 4 are years where we'll be paying Burrow a fraction of his actual worth.  (He'll carry cap hits of 8.2, 9.8, and 11.5) 

And in year 5, barring an extension, he'll be due the average of the top 10 QB's (That number is currently over 25 million now in 2020, and will only increase)

Chances are, Burrow gets an early extension, so you can almost guarantee that year 5 will be even greater.  And there's a very good chance he may even seen an extension before year 4 too.  Patrick Mahomes, depsite also carrying a 5th year option, got his big pay day after only 3 seasons.

That leaves you with years 2 and 3, as the only sure fire discount seasons.  Now, money can moved around and extensions can be worked in ways to provide long-term discounts and lower cap numbers in the earlier years.  But regardless, we're going to be in a place here very shortl, where those savings have passed.

So now is the time, where you can take all of those savings and spread them out to other positions.  Because once that new deal hits, it's going to take a huge chunk of out of the cap, and really strain spending.

None of this is to say we can't win after a big deal, or that this is the only window.  But you're 100% correct.  This next year, and the year after, provides us with the ability to really be agressive.  These are not the years you want to be conservative in free agency.

[Wire22Wire]

(10-09-2020, 01:48 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: This.

I don't think some people realize what an opportunity we have, and how short the window is to fully take advantage of it.

Years 2, 3 and 4 are years where we'll be paying Burrow a fraction of his actual worth.  (He'll carry cap hits of 8.2, 9.8, and 11.5) 

And in year 5, barring an extension, he'll be due the average of the top 10 QB's (That number is currently over 25 million now in 2020, and will only increase)

Chances are, Burrow gets an early extension, so you can almost guarantee that year 5 will be even greater.  And there's a very good chance he may even seen an extension before year 4 too.  Patrick Mahomes, depsite also carrying a 5th year option, got his big pay day after only 3 seasons.

That leaves you with years 2 and 3, as the only sure fire discount seasons.  Now, money can moved around and extensions can be worked in ways to provide long-term discounts and lower cap numbers in the earlier years.  But regardless, we're going to be in a place here very shortl, where those savings have passed.

So now is the time, where you can take all of those savings and spread them out to other positions.  Because once that new deal hits, it's going to take a huge chunk of out of the cap, and really strain spending.

None of this is to say we can't win after a big deal, or that this is the only window.  But you're 100% correct.  This next year, and the year after, provides us with the ability to really be agressive.  These are not the years you want to be conservative in free agency.

Yep. 

Looking ahead to next year, I think 2 OL need to be brought in from FA - entire right side of the line to replace Redmond and Hart

Last year, there were some good options out there at T and G - Wish we had made the investment last year intandem w Burrow.  But,  next year here is who I see as URFA:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ufa/offensive-line/

Perhaps the best Tackle in the NFL. - Ronnie Stanley - he's not going anywhere 

Joe Thuney 
Brandon scherff
David bakhtiari
Trent Williams will be 34, so that is risky. 
Cameron erving

Those guys are all big names, prob a little over valued from a dollar amount they will command, but id like one of them here.