Ross comp pick

[Hoofhearted]

Since we're not trading Ross and banking on a comp pick, does anyone have any idea what that would look like? Comp pick formulas are something I am not familiar with.

[Wes Mantooth]

(11-03-2020, 07:21 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Since we're not trading Ross and banking on a comp pick, does anyone have any idea what that would look like? Comp pick formulas are something I am not familiar with.

The compensentory pick forumula is complicated as hell. I don't think anyone knows exactly how it works because the league has never provided the actual written details. It's basically educated speculation as far as I know.

From what I understand, to even be eligible for them, you have to collectively lose more than you gain.  Meaning, if we go out and sign some free agents next season, they would have to be "less than" the players who depart for us to be eligible. It's "total in" vs. "total out".

And even assuming that that happens (doubtful with our cap space), the picks you receive are based upon the contracts your departing players sign.  So if John Ross signs some small deal we'd get a super low pick

[treee]

If our FA trend from last season continues we won't get any comp picks. Hopefully that's the case.

[*Synric*]

Right now the Bengals would be lucky to get a 7th round comp pick. Ross wont get a good contract so he would have to get a ton of snaps and play well to even give the Bengals a chance.

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

The best resource out there for understanding comp picks is definitely overthecap.com. They're usually reasonably accurate, though they may get some picks in the wrong round.

Here's their projection for the 2021 draft: https://overthecap.com/draft/

I've been following their site for a few years, and since there are only 32 total comp picks given out (basically a round 8), and they start with the biggest deals and go down from there, we likely don't receive anything if he signs a deal for less than about 3 million per year. And unless he has a big second half I doubt anybody gives him that.

That's why I don't think this was about the comp pick. If there were offers, the Bengals must've figured they were less of an asset than having a fast WR who knows the offense for the second half of the year. Meaning, what if AJ goes down again, and we activate Ross? And what if he has a big game (like he did against Seattle) that nets another win? That's not an impossible scenario, and I guess worth more to them than whatever conditional pick teams were offering.

[Hoofhearted]

(11-03-2020, 08:04 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: The compensentory pick forumula is complicated as hell.  I don't think anyone knows exactly how it works because the league has never provided the actual written details.  It's basically educated speculation as far as I know.

From what I understand, to even be eligible for them, you have to collectively lose more than you gain.  Meaning, if we go out and sign some free agents next season, they would have to be "less than" the players who depart for us to be eligible.  It's "total in" vs. "total out".

And even assuming that that happens (doubtful with our cap space), the picks you receive are based upon the contracts your departing players sign.  So if John Ross signs some small deal we'd get a super low pick

Thank you. Glad I am not the only one who thinks that formula is ridiculously complicated. I tried a few times to understand it, but it was as clear as muddy water. Only brought this up because Tyler reported the Bengals "plan" was to let him play out his contract. The usage of the word "plan" led me to believe they would get a better comp pick vs any potential trade offers. Sounds like that may not the case

Quote:[A] Compensatory Free Agent (“CFA”) shall be defined as an Unrestricted Free Agent (“UFA”) who: (i) signed with a new Club during the prior free agency signing period […] prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, on the Monday following the NFL Draft for that League Year1 […]; and (ii) ranked within the top 35%2 of all League players […]. Clubs that lose to other Clubs a greater number of CFAs than they sign or acquire from other Clubs shall be eligible to receive a Compensatory Draft Selection in the College Draft to be held in the following League Year subject to the provisions set forth below.

This part really confuses me

Quote:In plain English, if a team loses more players that qualify as CFAs than it signs during free agency, that team is eligible to be awarded compensatory picks in the following NFL draft.

It is important to note that only certain players qualify for the compensatory formula. Those are only players whose contracts expire. Players who are cut are the most common example of free agents ineligible to become CFAs, but other methods of disqualification, such as a Restricted Free Agent not given a tender, also exist. In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

Ugh, I give up lol

[Hoofhearted]

(11-03-2020, 09:17 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: The best resource out there for understanding comp picks is definitely overthecap.com. They're usually reasonably accurate, though they may get some picks in the wrong round.

Here's their projection for the 2021 draft: https://overthecap.com/draft/

I've been following their site for a few years, and since there are only 32 total comp picks given out (basically a round 8), and they start with the biggest deals and go down from there, we likely don't receive anything if he signs a deal for less than about 3 million per year. And unless he has a big second half I doubt anybody gives him that.

That's why I don't think this was about the comp pick. If there were offers, the Bengals must've figured they were less of an asset than having a fast WR who knows the offense for the second half of the year. Meaning, what if AJ goes down again, and we activate Ross? And what if he has a big game (like he did against Seattle) that nets another win? That's not an impossible scenario, and I guess worth more to them than whatever conditional pick teams were offering.

Great point, didn't think of it that way. So they're valuing this insurance policy more than the probability of a 6th-7th round player contributing. I can follow that logic 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-03-2020, 10:10 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Great point, didn't think of it that way. So they're valuing this insurance policy more than the probability of a 6th-7th round player contributing. I can follow that logic 

Yes, it is complicated but I can follow that as well.

[QueenCity]

Someone said it has to do with production.... if thats true who knows.

Looks like this rule needs to be rewritten if the average fan can't understand it.

[BengalChris]

(11-03-2020, 07:21 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote: Since we're not trading Ross and banking on a comp pick, does anyone have any idea what that would look like? Comp pick formulas are something I am not familiar with.

The comp pick formula has many points to it. Generally, the larger the contract the higher the comp pick. But there are other factors that can affect that pick, such as player age, length of time with the team they left and length and dollar amount of the new deal.

Given Ross' lack of production, except for one game, he'll likely get a 1 year prove it deal for peanuts, which could result in no comp pick at all.

Most likely no other team is offering anything of value for Ross and they may even want the Bengals to pick up most of Ross' salary to boot, which is why he's still a Bengal. Ross was a big gamble when the Bengals drafted him. But after 4 years he's gotta be considered a huge risk for any team who signs him given that he's a proven failure who needs resurrected. Two head coaches have thrown him under the bus as it is.

The player most likely to deliver a 3rd round comp pick for the Bengals is Willie Jackson, if the team doesn't re-sign him. I believe the team should re-sign him, but who the hell knows what the Bengals will do.

 

[The Gooney Rule]

(11-03-2020, 10:07 PM)Hoofhearted Wrote:

Quote:(ii) ranked within the top 35%2 of all League players 

This part really confuses me

Quote:In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

Ugh, I give up lol

These are great questions, and you're absolutely right to label the whole thing as rather confusing. 

The NFL certainly seems to have no interest in clearly defining their formulas for compensatory picks, and while the Overthecap team has tried their best to present an understanding of the system, I think their writing leaves a bit to be desired in the sections you've quoted. 

Here's how I interpret it. I hope it helps a little, and if anyone would like to add or subtract to zero in on a reasonable consensus, I will extend heaps of thanks in advance. 
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** Quick couple points and personal philosophies on the strategy of hoping for comp picks and how they relate to John Ross in particular.**

A) I believe comp picks are awarded for the calendar year after the free agent period following the current season. So if we lose Ross to free agency at the end of this season, any comp pick at all awarded for him wouldn't come through until the 2022 draft. 

- Isn't the standard rule of thumb for GM's to consider draft picks for future years devalued by half?
 
- So what does that make a potential 3rd - 7th round pick in two years worth to us now?

B) Considering the pretty complex formula we'll look at below, you would have to have an unbelievably advanced front office to crunch the kind of numbers required to feel confident you're getting the right value via comp picks when adjusting for predictions on the kind of contract, snap count, and performance that player will generate on a new team stacked up against all the other projections from free agents on new teams league-wide, only to feel somewhat assured you'll receive some sort of mid-round pick two drafts later. 

(And those hypotheticals need to then be cross-referenced with similar data for any players you might want to sign yourself in FA who will qualify under the comp-pick formula, possibly negating any meagre reward for Ross or other players lost.) 

- Do we have that kind of computing power and vision in the Bengals' brain trust to successfully run this level of arbitrage? 


- Is our window to compete while we have a brilliant QB on a rookie deal open wide enough to warrant any delay in building draft and cap room capital as soon as possible? 


C) I thought we were all in on "Seize the Dey".  

My personal instincts would have been, and still are, to move on from Ross as soon as any value in the form of draft picks or cap space presents itself. John's clearly not happy here, and 2 sets of coaches haven't seemed that thrilled to have him. I would cut our losses and look for any benefit from that decision in the here and now. 

And like many others on the boards have said, he's not likely to get a large contract after his many rookie years' disappointing performance with us. Does anyone realistically believe he will play a large % of snaps or achieve any league awards in his first year with a new team? 

- If all of those 3 factors (new salary, snap count, and accolades) fail to materialize, we won't be getting any compensation via comp picks.

And even if Ross runs the table on those metrics and banks a lot of cash and positive performance with a new team:

- Is it not in our best interest to be signing some more quality free agents after this season to build on what we're doing already? Those additions would prevent us from benefiting from whatever delayed reward we might receive for Ross down the line through a comp pick. 

Chasing comp picks in future years based on wishful projections of a top 10 bust, while sitting on your hands in the upcoming free agency period, is not a great strategy for a sound NFL front office, in my unpaid opinion. 

(If you think about it, you would actually be rooting for the player to play exceptionally well for his new team, just so you can possibly earn a mid-to-low round comp pick in two years, while you refused to sign anyone of benefit in free agency who would block that middling compensation...

...If we thought that player would really perform that well, wouldn't it just be better to keep him? - possibly not if we couldn't afford him or there was a glut of talent already on the team at that position, but at any rate, aren't we not in the business of making other teams better?...

...Seems like needing the player to perform exceedingly well just so you can receive a pretty beige comp pick down the road is a decent way of making some other team better now.)  

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Now, after my musings, on to your very valid questions, OP: 

Quote:(ii) ranked within the top 35%2 of all League players 

Being ranked in the top 35% of these players is based off the total point value a qualifying player scored at the end of of this whole complicated comp pick formula. 

To do the math, we can follow these steps: (btw, all of this is info is coming from the Overthecap link on the topic here.)

A) Does the free agent in question qualify to even be in the comp pick discussion? 
    (It primarily depends on how the player's contract ended... More on that later with your second quote below.)
 
    If he does qualify...

B) Take his new contract and break it down by average yearly salary (there are new rules about how that's calculated). 
    Rank all the qualifying free agents' avg yearly salaries and assign them a point value. (highest salary gets most points and on down)
 
C) Give extra points to each player based on the % of snaps he played for his new team the year after he signed. (from 25%-100%) 

D) Give extra points if he wins certain league awards

E) Once you've got a total point score (called a Final Numerical Value - FNV), only the players in the top 35% of the point table will even be discussed further as possibly generating a comp pick for their former team. 

(So, as an example: If there's 100 qualifying free agents that year around the league, only the players with the top 35 FNV's will even be considered for the next step of the comp pick process.)

F) Depending on where they rank in that top 35% of FNV, there's a chart to assign the round of comp pick awarded for that player. (example: someone falling in the top 5% of FNV will qualify for a potential 3rd round comp pick, and on down...players that slot in the top 25-35% of FNV range will be rated for a 7th rd comp pick.) 

G) Now that each qualifying player in the top 35% of FNV has been assigned a corresponding round for a potential comp pick, each team is cross checked against such qualifying players they lost and/or signed. 

(I'm finding this part hard to explain succinctly in text, but I don't think it's too hard a concept to understand either. Following that link above will lead you to a link which shows a pretty handy chart to see how this should work in theory.)

Essentially, one such player signed negates one lost. The league tries to cancel out such players signed and lost by crossing off players rated for the same round, but if there's no match, they will cross off any player lost against any player signed regardless of what round they are rated at if they're the only ones in consideration for that team.  

For example, a team loses a player qualified for a 4th rd pick and signs a player qualified for a 6th rd pick. Those would cancel out, and the team wouldn't get any pick at all. 

Another example: A team loses a 4th rd rated player and a 5th rd rated player, and signs a 7th rd player. The 5th and 7th rd players would cancel each other out, and the team would be awarded a 4th rd comp pick. 

One final example: If a team loses a 3rd rd player, a 5th rd player, and a 6th rd player and signs a 3rd rd player and a 7th rd player, the two 3rd rd players cancel out, and the 7th rd player gained cancels out the 6th rd player lost, leaving the team with a 5th rd comp pick for the final player lost. 

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It's all a bit tedious, but reasonably straight forward if you have the qualifying free agents' contract and performance metrics available for that league year to run all the numbers and rank the players on a table. Lop off the bottom 65% point getters, and cancel out any remaining top rated players lost/gained for a particular team, and you should have a decent picture of what to expect for comp picks awarded. 

There are several other rules on the fringe relating to how many total comp picks can be awarded per team (4) or in total league wide (always set at 32), and what happens if there are not enough qualifying players to fill the strict 32 comp pick slots. 

But the other big macro point that concerns how this whole process works is understanding the definition of what a qualifying free agent player even is, in regards to being considered for the comp pick formula to begin with. 
------------------------------
And that brings us mercifully to your second point/quote: 

Quote:In its most general sense, players only become Compensatory Free Agents if they are free to leave their old team against that team’s will.

You nailed it - that sentence is clear as mud. 

I think what this is trying to emphasize is that only players who have had their contracts expire naturally, and move on to a new team, fit the definition of a qualifying compensatory free agent (who will then have to run the gauntlet of the chaos math formula above to determine if their departure will be of any compensatory value to their old team). 

Examples of contracts that expire naturally (or "against a team's will" as alluded to in the quote) are:

The straightforward free agents we all know about every year. (The team may wish to sign them, but the choice is in the player's control.)
Such players on the Bengals this year will be the likes of WJIII and Carl Lawson (amongst others). 

Examples of contracts that do not expire naturally (or expire with the will or consent of the team) are: 

- Players who get cut before their contract finishes. 

- Players who are restricted free agents, but don't receive a tender offer from their old team. (In that sense, the team had an ability to control that player for further time, but chose not too...so it was their will not to keep them around.) 

*** NOW HERE'S THE MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION*** 

John Ross was originally a 1st rd pick, which means the team had a 5th yr option on his rookie contract. The Bengals have already declined to pick up that option.... 

- So, is this an example where it is the "will of the team" to have his contract end? 
(If so, Ross would not qualify at all to even be considered in the comp pick formula, no matter what kind of contract or performance he delivers for his new team.)


The Bengals had control of Ross for one more year, and chose to not keep him on. (And I totally agree with the team's decision not to pick up that option.)

Now, I've been unable to find any definitive confirmation about whether players who have had their 5th year options declined being barred from comp pick consideration. 

But I don't think it's an unreasonable conclusion to have the comp pick committee deem him to be a non-qualifying free agent for their formulas, considering the rather involved definition of what it means to be a player who had their contract expire with the consent of their old team (with the will of their old team.) 

- What are others' thoughts on whether a player with a declined 5th yr option qualifies to go through the comp pick formula? 
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I would apologize for the lengthy reply, but I enjoy getting into the nuance of a topic, and do try my best to hit the pertinent points and generate conversation to the benefit of everyone's understanding, mine included. 

I hope this has helped frame a few things in a better light, and please do let me know if I could do a better job clearing anything up. 
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God Save the Queen City - 


  

[*ochocincos*]

(11-03-2020, 08:04 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: The compensentory pick forumula is complicated as hell.  I don't think anyone knows exactly how it works because the league has never provided the actual written details.  It's basically educated speculation as far as I know.

From what I understand, to even be eligible for them, you have to collectively lose more than you gain.  Meaning, if we go out and sign some free agents next season, they would have to be "less than" the players who depart for us to be eligible.  It's "total in" vs. "total out".

And even assuming that that happens (doubtful with our cap space), the picks you receive are based upon the contracts your departing players sign.  So if John Ross signs some small deal we'd get a super low pick

Bingo.

If Bengals, for example, end up with a -3 differential, they could be eligible for up to 3 comp picks.
I say "up to" because they only allot 32 picks, so it's not a 1:1 ratio.
Technically, a team CAN be awarded a single 7th round comp pick if they break even on players lost vs added but the players lost sign much bigger contracts overall - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20the%2032,and%20gained%20in%20free%20agency.

The real tricky part comes down to picking the specific comp picks.

Quote:The placement of picks is determined by a proprietary formula based on the player's average annual salary, playing time, and postseason honors with his new team, with salary being the primary factor.

So given Ross has been injury-prone and hasn't produced much, he's likely not going to get a big enough contract to warrant a higher comp pick. His comp pick will likely range in 5th or 6th round.