Projecting the 2021 roster/roster management

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

How much do the Bengals have to spend in FA? What should the draft priorities be? Who will be potential cap casualties?

Under contract for 2021

QB
1 Burrow
2 Finley

RB
1 Mixon
2 Bernard
3 Williams

TE
1. Uzomah
2. Sample
3. Shreck

WR
1. Boyd
2. Higgins
3.
4. Tate


T
1. Williams
2. Hart
3. Adeniji
4. Johnson

G
1.
2. Su'a Filo
3. Jordan

C
1. Hopkins
2. Price
3. Finney

DT
1. Reader
2. Atkins
3. Tupou
4. Wren

DE
1.
2. Hubbard
3. Khalid
4.

LB
1. Wilson
2. Pratt
3. Davies-Gaither
4.
5. Bailey

CB
1. Waynes
2.
3. Phillips
4.

S
1. Bates
2. Bell
3.

That's 34 players under contract (I've cut Seibert, Prince and Sutherland) and Over The Cap (OTC) reckons there's $35m to spare.

Let's then say that they ink Spain to a $5m a year deal.

Rookies would take up say $12m so that's 34 + Spain + 8 draft picks - and filling out the rest of the roster with depth players at somewhere between minimum wage and $2.5m a year would be let's say another $15m. They've basically used up their cap and now need to use the draft to replace: WJIII, Lawson, Alexander, Green, Dunlap, Shawn Williams. So let's say they go
Rd 1 DE1
Rd 2 CB2
Rd 3 WR3
Rd 4 DE4
Rd 5 S3
Rd 6 PR
Rd 7a K
Rd 7b LS

If they do that have they actually improved? That wouldn't seem to have moved the needle to me and if anything they'll have probably gone backwards.

So where can the Front Office get the cap space to improve?

Bobby Hart ($1m dead money, $5.9m in cap savings). With Adeniji and Johnson you have potential replacements on the roster so this seems an obvious choice despite Hart's improved play
BJ Finney ($3.5m in cap savings) - it may seem strange to cut someone they just traded for but it would make little sense to keep a 3rd C for that money so it looks like he was a 2020 salary dump by the Seahawks to make room to take on Dunlap. With Hopkins and Price already on the roster you wouldn't particularly need to find a replacement.

Those are easy cuts that don't especially create holes on the roster.

The other savings are a little more problematic

Atkins ($2.6m in dead cap; $12.2m in savings) - a big saving but this the opens up an additional hole on the roster to be filled. The Bengals would likely need to use an early draft pick.
Uzomah ($1m in dead cap; $5.075m in savings) - a sizeable saving but opens another hole on the roster

That would save approximately $25m which could instead be used for a Tier 1 O-lineman and re-signing one of Lawson and WJIII. Maybe you can do all 3 if you spread some of that cap hit to 2022 when the salary cap should increase?

For a team with so many holes and a QB on a rookie contract there seems to be surprisingly little cap room.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-20-2020, 04:06 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: How much do the Bengals have to spend in FA? What should the draft priorities be? Who will be potential cap casualties?

Under contract for 2021

QB
1 Burrow
2 Finley

RB
1 Mixon
2 Bernard
3 Williams

TE
1. Uzomah
2. Sample
3. Shreck

WR
1. Boyd
2. Higgins
3.
4. Tate


T
1. Williams
2. Hart
3. Adeniji
4. Johnson

G
1.
2. Su'a Filo
3. Jordan

C
1. Hopkins
2. Price
3. Finney

DT
1. Reader
2. Atkins
3. Tupou
4. Wren

DE
1.
2. Hubbard
3. Khalid
4.

LB
1. Wilson
2. Pratt
3. Davies-Gaither
4.
5. Bailey

CB
1. Waynes
2.
3. Phillips
4.

S
1. Bates
2. Bell
3.

That's 34 players under contract (I've cut Seibert, Prince and Sutherland) and Over The Cap (OTC) reckons there's $35m to spare.

Let's then say that they ink Spain to a $5m a year deal.

Rookies would take up say $12m so that's 34 + Spain + 8 draft picks - and filling out the rest of the roster with depth players at somewhere between minimum wage and $2.5m a year would be let's say another $15m. They've basically used up their cap and now need to use the draft to replace: WJIII, Lawson, Alexander, Green, Dunlap, Shawn Williams. So let's say they go
Rd 1 DE1
Rd 2 CB2
Rd 3 WR3
Rd 4 DE4
Rd 5 S3
Rd 6 PR
Rd 7a K
Rd 7b LS

If they do that have they actually improved? That wouldn't seem to have moved the needle to me and if anything they'll have probably gone backwards.

So where can the Front Office get the cap space to improve?

Bobby Hart ($1m dead money, $5.9m in cap savings). With Adeniji and Johnson you have potential replacements on the roster so this seems an obvious choice despite Hart's improved play
BJ Finney ($3.5m in cap savings) - it may seem strange to cut someone they just traded for but it would make little sense to keep a 3rd C for that money so it looks like he was a 2020 salary dump by the Seahawks to make room to take on Dunlap. With Hopkins and Price already on the roster you wouldn't particularly need to find a replacement.

Those are easy cuts that don't especially create holes on the roster.

The other savings are a little more problematic

Atkins ($2.6m in dead cap; $12.2m in savings) - a big saving but this the opens up an additional hole on the roster to be filled. The Bengals would likely need to use an early draft pick.
Uzomah ($1m in dead cap; $5.075m in savings) - a sizeable saving but opens another hole on the roster

That would save approximately $25m which could instead be used for a Tier 1 O-lineman and re-signing one of Lawson and WJIII. Maybe you can do all 3 if you spread some of that cap hit to 2022 when the salary cap should increase?

For a team with so many holes and a QB on a rookie contract there seems to be surprisingly little cap room.

Unless Atkins actually returns to form, it's actually better to open up that hole than keep him there with that amount and him not produce.

Uzomah is an interesting one, as he may have been turning the corner before he went down. He had 87 yards and 1 TD in 2 games, which was a pace for 700 yards and 8 TDs. That's pretty good for Uzomah's cost. But he may not recover properly from his injury and/or he may not see as many targets now that Higgins has come along.

Personally, I'd rather have Finney over Price, as Finney is a better pass blocker and the offense is pass-oriented.

Last, I don't think it makes sense to take the risk of cutting Hart. While Adeniji showed promise, he isn't where he needs to be to replace Hart yet.

I'd like to see an OT drafted, and possibly a G if Spain isn't re-signed.

[fredtoast]

We usually use our first round picks on positions that are more expensive to fill in free agency. So I am expecting a CB with our first pick. Or maybe a DE. We already have a QB and LT.

[J24]

Needs
3T, Edge, CB, WR

Most interesting question
Who do they franchise between Lawson & Jackson? My bet is Lawson and they trade him to a title contender for a 2nd day pick.
FA- Kwon Alexander after he gets cut from the Saints

My guess for Draft
1st- WR
2nd- DE
3rd- Edge
4th- DT
5th- OT
6th- S
7th- WR
7th- BPA

August extensions
Bates & Hubbard

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-20-2020, 05:46 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We usually use our first round picks on positions that are more expensive to fill in free agency.  So I am expecting a CB with our first pick.  Or maybe a DE.  We already have a QB and LT.

I know it is VERY early, but I view these next few games as "Zac doesn't have the talent deficiency excuse" matchups.  If he craps the bed on the majority of these games, I want new leadership.

I don't believe that will happen, so I believe they won't be picking very early (top 5), which is a bit of a shame as I would love to see the Bengals slide back and get some additional equity from a very high pick and have multiple picks out of a top pick.  Sliding to mid-round (if they aren't there already) could yield a really strong interior defensive linemen. 

That being said, I completely agree that it will most likely be a CB or DE.  I will be surprised if they extend WJIII at this point.  He was much better than Dre, but still far too inconsistent.   Should I be wrong and they do extend him, and (hopefully) Alexander, then you could imagine it almost being 100% a pass rusher.  

[Essex Johnson]

(11-21-2020, 10:55 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I know it is VERY early, but I view these next few games as "Zac doesn't have the talent deficiency excuse" matchups.  If he craps the bed on the majority of these games, I want new leadership.

I don't believe that will happen, so I believe they won't be picking very early (top 5), which is a bit of a shame as I would love to see the Bengals slide back and get some additional equity from a very high pick and have multiple picks out of a top pick.  Sliding to mid-round (if they aren't there already) could yield a really strong interior defensive linemen. 

That being said, I completely agree that it will most likely be a CB or DE.  I will be surprised if they extend WJIII at this point.  He was much better than Dre, but still far too inconsistent.   Should I be wrong and they do extend him, and (hopefully) Alexander, then you could imagine it almost being 100% a pass rusher.  

Steelers, Ravens  have talent edge over us for sure.. Dallas and Miami have a slight edge.  That leaves  Giants, Washington and Texans I feel are in our boat.  So i be happy with a 3-2 over those 5 games...

[Essex Johnson]

(11-20-2020, 06:31 PM)J24 Wrote: Needs
3T, Edge, CB, WR

Most interesting question
Who do they franchise between Lawson & Jackson? My bet is Lawson and they trade him to a title contender for a 2nd day pick.
FA- Kwon Alexander after he gets cut from the Saints

My guess for Draft
1st- WR
2nd- DE
3rd- Edge
4th- DT
5th- OT
6th- S
7th- WR
7th- BPA

August extensions
Bates & Hubbard

I think they trade back at least one or two times.. i would be surprised not see them go Oline 1st or 2nd round...