Argument for and against Sewell.

[*bfine32*]

As I read through this I can see where folks might be led to believe I'd be against drafting Sewell; I'm not. Simply providing arguments against. I've seen too often how we get our hearts set on one player and then we don't get him.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-04-2020, 12:18 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Quinton Nelson says hold my beer.

He did not say he’s best at guard, you’re putting words in his mouth. He said START him at guard until he understands the nuances of tackle better then move him outside. A decent-good coach will coach him into better techniques and to be more aggressive with his hands. And no we aren’t getting 2 firsts and a 2 for this years 3 I don’t know where you’re getting these numbers from.

Actually, depending on where MIA and HOU finish in the draft order, the trade value chart shows that pick 11, pick 22, and pick 55 will be just above the 3rd overall pick in terms of value. So two 1sts and a 2nd could be realistic.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-04-2020, 12:36 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As I read through this I can see where folks might be led to believe I'd be against drafting Sewell; I'm not. Simply providing arguments against. I've seen too often how we get our hearts set on one player and then we don't get him.

If JAX takes him (or another team trades up in front of us) I’ll be disappointed, but I would also be pretty happy with Chase, Surtain, Pitts, Parsons, and a couple other guys. I just don’t want to pass on Sewell, or trade back for an unspectacular return.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(12-04-2020, 01:10 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If JAX takes him (or another team trades up in front of us) I’ll be disappointed, but I would also be pretty happy with Chase, Surtain, Pitts, Parsons, and a couple other guys. I just don’t want to pass on Sewell, or trade back for an unspectacular return.

True. We don’t 1 this year so some things could happen. I’d also be fine with any of the above, or maybe a trade back that nets us leatherwood. I like them ‘Bama linemen.

[Essex Johnson]

The idea that the picking a couple players from maybe pick 8 to 25 in 1st round means you are getting such a lesser player it is not worth it just does not hold up when you look at the history of the draft. Does not mean you always trade back but if you can trade back and get multiple picks in the 1st round of the elite athletes coming out of college to play in the NFL you sure consider it...

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-04-2020, 02:18 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: The idea that the picking a couple players from maybe pick 8 to 25 in 1st round means you are getting such a lesser player it is not worth it just does not hold up when you look at the history of the draft. Does not mean you always trade back but if you can trade back and get multiple picks in the 1st round of the elite athletes coming out of college to play in the NFL you sure consider it...

Ofc you should consider it. But when you’re talking about a prospect like Sewell you have to be blown away by the offers to pull the trigger. And those types of trades are just not that common. Especially for non-QB’s. Now if Lawrence and Fields go 1/2 and some team is absolutely in love with Trey Lance and wants to give us multiple 1sts and multiple 2nds sure let’s do it. Very unlikely though. But I’m not trading away the chance at Sewell for a single extra pick.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-04-2020, 02:23 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Ofc you should consider it. But when you’re talking about a prospect like Sewell you have to be blown away by the offers to pull the trigger. And those types of trades are just not that common. Especially for non-QB’s. Now if Lawrence and Fields go 1/2 and some team is absolutely in love with Trey Lance and wants to give us multiple 1sts and multiple 2nds sure let’s do it. Very unlikely though. But I’m not trading away the chance at Sewell for a single extra pick.

I see it a bit like Burrow,  will draft him and really did not move the needle much in wins and points.. just too many holes. Now we look at top tackle and I say you can get 3 for a trade back.. I like 3 for 1 in a team with many needs

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-04-2020, 06:35 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: I see it a bit like Burrow,  will draft him and really did not move the needle much in wins and points.. just too many holes. Now we look at top tackle and I say you can get 3 for a trade back.. I like 3 for 1 in a team with many needs

He did move the needle in points though. Before he went down we were averaging 22.6 points a game compared to last year’s 17.4. That’s a significant improvement. Especially with no running game.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-04-2020, 07:49 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He did move the needle in points though. Before he went down we were averaging 22.6 points a game compared to last year’s 17.4. That’s a significant improvement. Especially with no running game.

Last year we averaged were 30th in points score around 17.4, this year we are 26th.. and excluding Giants game we averaged 21.3   NFL scoring is up this year, we would be around 18th in scoring with 21.3 average in 2019.  

So i don;t see it as a significant improvement but I agree the offense is better with Burrow than last year QBs .. just struggled to throw TDS.. he actually was on pace to having just a few more  Passing TDS than Dalton did as a rookie but with a lot more attempts and completions. 

But back to my main point.. we pick what some consider the best QB coming out of college since Manning and he plays well improves the team but we really don;t move the needle that much.. not so much because of him but just too many holes on the team overall, now we face the similar situation but it is a Tackle not a QB but we could acquire 3 picks could get us a good tackle, possible the first guard off the board and a good Dline pick.. So we add three projected good solid starters vs. a projected excellent tackle.. With this team right now I take the three over the one and believe this will actually help Burrow more in winning.

[Nicomo Cosca]

A 5.2 point increase in one season (especially with a rookie QB) is absolutely significant. If we have the same increase again next year we’d be averaging 27.8 points a game. That would currently be good for 7th in the league.

And you can keep going on about getting 3 picks but I maintain offers will not be as good as you’re suggesting. Sewell is a great prospect, but he’s not a QB. Like I said, unless a team loves Trey Lance enough to come all the way up to 3 I don’t see the offers being worth it.

If Lawrence and Fields go 1 & 2 (they will) Sewell is going to be our pick.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-05-2020, 12:21 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: A 5.2 point increase in one season (especially with a rookie QB) is absolutely significant. If we have the same increase again next year we’d be averaging 27.8 points a game. That would currently be good for 7th in the league.

And you can keep going on about getting 3 picks but I maintain offers will not be as good as you’re suggesting. Sewell is a great prospect, but he’s not a QB. Like I said, unless a team loves Trey Lance enough to come all the way up to 3 I don’t see the offers being worth it.

If Lawrence and Fields go 1 & 2 (they will) Sewell is going to be our pick.

Odds yes but we will.take offers that will happen.

[Luvnit2]

(12-04-2020, 12:36 PM)bfine32 Wrote: As I read through this I can see where folks might be led to believe I'd be against drafting Sewell; I'm not. Simply providing arguments against. I've seen too often how we get our hearts set on one player and then we don't get him.

I would guess if Sewell is drafted one or 2, our 3rd pick would become huge for draft value. I think there are at least 4 1st round QB picks, so if Sewell gone, likely Fields available unless Lawrence decides he does not want to be a Jet and stays in college 1 more year.

I do think we are in great position to get the best non QB prospect in the 2021 draft unless we win games the rest of the year. I will be very surprised if Jets or Jags trade out or do not take a QB in round 1.

speaking of QB's, we need  back up and the more I watch Ian Booker, think he would be great back up to Burrow in round 4 or us trade back into late round 4 to get him.

[Hammerstripes]

Are we really going to say that Burrow didn't move the needle in wins?

We had the same number of wins through 10 games as we did through 16 last year. Is there really any doubt that we finish 6-9-1 if he doesn't get hurt against Washington? 5-10-1 at worst?

[Nicomo Cosca]

Drafting Sewell just got a hell of a lot more important with Jonah’s injury. I don’t think there is an argument against at this point.

[Jpoore]

(12-04-2020, 12:18 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Quinton Nelson says hold my beer.

He did not say he’s best at guard, you’re putting words in his mouth. He said START him at guard until he understands the nuances of tackle better then move him outside. A decent-good coach will coach him into better techniques and to be more aggressive with his hands. And no we aren’t getting 2 firsts and a 2 for this years 3 I don’t know where you’re getting these numbers from.

As others have said, value is right there. And it’s all about what a team is willing to give up. Bears have up what 4 top 90 picks to move up 1 spot? And no voch said he would be a better player at guard.

(12-04-2020, 02:23 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Ofc you should consider it. But when you’re talking about a prospect like Sewell you have to be blown away by the offers to pull the trigger. And those types of trades are just not that common. Especially for non-QB’s. Now if Lawrence and Fields go 1/2 and some team is absolutely in love with Trey Lance and wants to give us multiple 1sts and multiple 2nds sure let’s do it. Very unlikely though. But I’m not trading away the chance at Sewell for a single extra pick.

Agree completely on that last sentence. I need 3 top 60 picks to trade back.

(12-06-2020, 08:37 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Drafting Sewell just got a hell of a lot more important with Jonah’s injury. I don’t think there is an argument against at this point.

Don’t think an injury should change anything

[Au165]

(12-06-2020, 08:37 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Drafting Sewell just got a hell of a lot more important with Jonah’s injury. I don’t think there is an argument against at this point.

The same argument as before, maybe it's stronger now actually, as adding Sewell would be a net gain of 0 in terms of overall O-line quality if Jonah misses time next year. We have more needs than a singular offensive lineman and this is a really good tackle class. If you get an offer that includes another 2nd then you move down and grab a tackle plus another O-Line/D-line player. Slater, Cosmi, Eichenburg, and Leatherwood all appear to be quality NFL tackles that give us the flexibility to fix additional holes.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(12-07-2020, 09:31 AM)Jpoore Wrote: As others have said, value is right there. And it’s all about what a team is willing to give up. Bears have up what 4 top 90 picks to move up 1 spot? And no voch said he would be a better player at guard.

Maybe in the beginning, but by the end he said to have a plan before you draft him. Start at guard for 2 years then move him outside. That’s almost a direct quote. There has to be a team willing to move up, it’s not madden. I don’t think they move even if there is an offer close to that.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-07-2020, 10:01 AM)Au165 Wrote: The same argument as before, maybe it's stronger now actually, as adding Sewell would be a net gain of 0 in terms of overall O-line quality if Jonah misses time next year. We have more needs than a singular offensive lineman and this is a really good tackle class. If you get an offer that includes another 2nd then you move down and grab a tackle plus another O-Line/D-line player. Slater, Cosmi, Eichenburg, and Leatherwood all appear to be quality NFL tackles that give us the flexibility to fix additional holes.

I’m a little tired of “appear to be” with our OL picks. Ogbuehi and Price also appeared to be quality NFL linemen.

Nobody is suggesting Sewell is all it will take to fix this thing, but he’s a damn good start. And he plays a top 2-3 most important position.

[Au165]

(12-07-2020, 11:44 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’m a little tired of “appear to be” with our OL picks. Ogbuehi and Price also appeared to be quality NFL linemen.

I want the best we can get protecting Joe Burrow’s blindside. Not a 6th round pick (Adeniji). Not an UDFA (FJ). The. Best. We. Can. Get.

Nobody is suggesting Sewell is all it will take to fix this thing, but he’s a damn good start. And he plays a top 2-3 most important position.

I am not saying Sewell will be a bust, but "Can't-Miss" is a myth. Greg Robinson was about as "can't miss" as an offensive tackle prospect the league had seen in ages...he missed. I actually think the Sewell love has gone too far at this point, he has issues that people are actively ignoring because he chose not to play this year so essentially out of sight and out of mind. He is a very good prospect, but the gap between a guy like him and Eichenburg is not this massive gap people pretend it is. I am actually starting to get onboard with Eichenburg potentially being the best of this group in the end.

As to the "top 2-3" most important position, that myth has kind of sailed. The evolution of defenses to move rushers, and even line up elite rushers as LB to send interior pressure, has killed that off. This is why we have seen the salaries of interior linemen explode over the last couple of years. It has also coincided a bit with the evolution of QB's becoming more mobile as teams will run contains or "mush rushes" on the tackles and then crash the interior making them less effective.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-07-2020, 12:00 PM)Au165 Wrote: I am not saying Sewell will be a bust, but "Can't-Miss" is a myth. Greg Robinson was about as "can't miss" as an offensive tackle prospect the league had seen in ages...he missed. I actually think the Sewell love has gone too far at this point, he has issues that people are actively ignoring because he chose not to play this year so essentially out of sight and out of mind. He is a very good prospect, but the gap between a guy like him and Eichenburg is not this massive gap people pretend it is. I am actually starting to get onboard with Eichenburg potentially being the best of this group in the end.

As to the "top 2-3" most important position, that myth has kind of sailed. The evolution of defenses to move rushers, and even line up elite rushers as LB to send interior pressure, has killed that off. This is why we have seen the salaries of interior linemen explode over the last couple of years. It has also coincided a bit with the evolution of QB's becoming more mobile as teams will run contains or "mush rushes" on the tackles and then crash the interior making them less effective.

So if Lawrence and Fields go 1/2, and Sewell is overhyped (and the gap between him and the other OT’s isn’t that big) why would any team trade up for him and give us a haul? Are you assuming another QB needy team will trade up for Trey Lance or someone else?