1 versus 2

[*bfine32*]

Recently been spending some time in the draft forum, because this season is over and I'm in timeout again. Lots of talk about how you cannot trust this team to scout other than the obvious pick; so I went back 5 years in our drafts and compared our first rounders versus our second rounders.

Which haul do you prefer?

William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow

Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Drew Sample, Tee Higgins

[KillerGoose]

(11-30-2020, 11:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Recently been spending some time in the draft forum, because this season is over and I'm in timeout again. Lots of talk about how you cannot trust this team to scout other than the obvious pick; so I went back 5 years in our drafts and compared our first rounders versus our second rounders.

Which haul do you prefer?

William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow

Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Drew Sample, Tee Higgins

It has to be the second rounders, at this point.

[Rubekahn29]

(11-30-2020, 11:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Recently been spending some time in the draft forum, because this season is over and I'm in timeout again. Lots of talk about how you cannot trust this team to scout other than the obvious pick; so I went back 5 years in our drafts and compared our first rounders versus our second rounders.

Which haul do you prefer?

William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow

Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Drew Sample, Tee Higgins

1st round- 2 bust, 1 okay starter, 1 still has a lot to prove and 1 can't miss prospect. 

2nd round- 4 of of our top 6 or 7 players on our team, and 1 okay starter. 

2nd round wins this one. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-30-2020, 11:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Recently been spending some time in the draft forum, because this season is over and I'm in timeout again. Lots of talk about how you cannot trust this team to scout other than the obvious pick; so I went back 5 years in our drafts and compared our first rounders versus our second rounders.

Which haul do you prefer?

William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow

Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Drew Sample, Tee Higgins

Tough call because the second group has mobetta players but the first group has Burrow and Williams. 

But to the point you're trying to make, none of the #1 picks other than Burrow were top 5 like Sewell is and the one that is...is very good.

As a side note, the Bengals--for some strange reason--have had many very good 2nd round picks. It's freaky. 

[Benton]

Interesting thread.

Take Burrow out and hand's down it's 2nd rounders. Even with Burrow in there, I'd probably still go second round.

I mean, first round you've got Jonah and Burrow, both of which look solid (in Burrow's case, outstanding) but neither one has a full season playing because of injury. Second round, you've got several starters and guys contributing.

To me, it only gets worse when you go back to 2010.

2010: Gresham, Dunlap. Easy call
2011: Green, Dalton. Probly Green, he had a lot of good years. But I can see where it would be debatable.
2012: Dre, Zeitler. I'd still take Zeitler today.
2013: Eifert, Bernard. Toss up for me. Eifert was great in the 3.5 games he played each season, Gio isn't that kind of talent but he's more dependable.
2014: Dennard, Hill. Yup. That's how bad this draft was.
2015: Og, Fisher. About as bad as the year before.

[Nicomo Cosca]

The first group because of Burrow. There’s no denying we typically do pretty well in the 2nd round (although there’s still the Fisher, Sample, Margus Hunt, Devon Still, type picks scattered in there), but Burrow is the only player that has the potential to be franchise changing out of all of those guys.

It’s an interesting thread though. And ofc it’s all dependent on another team being willing to trade with us.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(12-01-2020, 12:05 AM)Benton Wrote: Interesting thread.

Take Burrow out and hand's down it's 2nd rounders. Even with Burrow in there, I'd probably still go second round.

I mean, first round you've got Jonah and Burrow, both of which look solid (in Burrow's case, outstanding) but neither one has a full season playing because of injury. Second round, you've got several starters and guys contributing.

To me, it only gets worse when you go back to 2010.

2010: Gresham, Dunlap. Easy call
2011: Green, Dalton. Probly Green, he had a lot of good years. But I can see where it would be debatable.
2012: Dre, Zeitler. I'd still take Zeitler today.
2013: Eifert, Bernard. Toss up for me. Eifert was great in the 3.5 games he played each season, Gio isn't that kind of talent but he's more dependable.
2014: Dennard, Hill. Yup. That's how bad this draft was.
2015: Og, Fisher. About as bad as the year before.

Gotta modify a couple:

2012: Zeitler and Dre were first round, Still was 2nd round.
2013: Eifert vs. Gio-van and Hunt

2012, 1st round is no-brainer. 2013, still a toss-up, but Gio-van has definitely contributed more than Eifert.

2014 was fine for a draft; Dennard had a number of good, solid years with us and Hill had 3 solid-superb years with us.

He had 30 TDs in 3 years, leading the league in rushing TDs, one of those years. If he doesn't fumble, he's considered one of the greatest RBs in our history, even with his low YPC in 2015.

2014 is definitely the 2nd round and is nowhere near the 2015 draft. Not even close.

[Essex Johnson]

2nd round hands down.. no debate at this point.

[Benton]

(12-01-2020, 01:09 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Gotta modify a couple:

2012: Zeitler and Dre were first round, Still was 2nd round.

Ah, thanks. I was just thinking order, not the round. Good catch.

Quote:2014 was fine for a draft; Dennard had a number of good, solid years with us and Hill had 3 solid-superb years with us.


He had 30 TDs in 3 years, leading the league in rushing TDs, one of those years. If he doesn't fumble, he's considered one of the greatest RBs in our history, even with his low YPC in 2015.

Fair points, but I wasn't a fan of either. Hill was was ok, but I don't think he's worthy of the asterisk. 14 like 15 just felt like we were trying for value and ended up without much of any. Dennard was spotty.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Other than John Ross we have typically done pretty well with our top 10 picks.

Joe Burrow
AJ Green
Andre Smith
Carson Palmer
Levi Jones
Justin Smith
Willie Anderson

It’s when we pick in the late teens and twenties they get a little spotty.

Edit: forgot Keith Rivers. **** the Steelers.

[fredtoast]

Every year there are several first round picks that bust. And even the best teams miss on first round picks sometimes. But that being said our string of shitty picks in the first round has been mind numbing.

Ogbuehi, Ross, and Price were not just first round picks that played like third round picks (see: Jonah Williams). They are complete busts that did not amount to anything. They might as well have been 6th round picks.

And even when we do find a good player in the first round they can't stay healthy.

2012...Kirkpatrick. Only played 16 games in 2 of 8 seasons. Missed 20 games
2013...Eifert. Only played 16 games once in 7 seasons. Missed 53 games.
2014...Dennard. Only played 16 games once in 6 seasons. Missed 19 games.
2015...Jackson. Only played 16 games once in 5 years. Missed 20 games (has not finished 5th season but already missed a game this year)
2019...Williams. Has missed 16 of 27 games so far.
2020...Burrow. Only lasted 10 games in first season.


This is how you become a team with 5 straight losing seasons.

[*bfine32*]

(11-30-2020, 11:46 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Tough call because the second group has mobetta players but the first group has Burrow and Williams. 

But to the point you're trying to make, none of the #1 picks other than Burrow were top 5 like Sewell is and the one that is...is very good.

As a side note, the Bengals--for some strange reason--have had many very good 2nd round picks. It's freaky. 

One could make an argument that throughout their history Bengals have done better in RD 2 than 1. Imay research a little more, but off the top of my head. Bengal greats taken in RD 2:

Boomer Esiason

Chad Johnson

Corey Dillon

Andrew Whitworth

Bill Bergey

Carlos Dunlap

Dan Ross

Carl Pickens

Kenny Irons

[*jason*]

(12-01-2020, 01:09 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Gotta modify a couple:

2012: Zeitler and Dre were first round, Still was 2nd round.
2013: Eifert vs. Gio-van and Hunt

2012, 1st round is no-brainer. 2013, still a toss-up, but Gio-van has definitely contributed more than Eifert.

2014 was fine for a draft; Dennard had a number of good, solid years with us and Hill had 3 solid-superb years with us.

He had 30 TDs in 3 years, leading the league in rushing TDs, one of those years. If he doesn't fumble, he's considered one of the greatest RBs in our history, even with his low YPC in 2015.

2014 is definitely the 2nd round and is nowhere near the 2015 draft. Not even close.

You're higher on Jeremy Hill than I am. To me had had that great stretch late in his rookie year... It seemed like after that, he was just good at getting into the end zone after not really being all that great between the 20s...

Don't get me wrong. I'd take that TD production in a heartbeat right now... The general pont you were making is right though. 2014 was a way better haul than 2015. Not saying much.

[*jason*]

(12-01-2020, 01:54 AM)bfine32 Wrote: One could make an argument that throughout their history Bengals have done better in RD 2 than 1. Imay research a little more, but off the top of my head. Bengal greats taken in RD 2:

Boomer Esiason

Chad Johnson

Corey Dillon

Andrew Whitworth

Bill Bergey

Carlos Dunlap

Dan Ross

Carl Pickens

Kenny Irons

A Kenny Irons sighting...

[*bfine32*]

(12-01-2020, 02:00 AM)jason Wrote: A Kenny Irons sighting...

That 1 preseason run was a thing of beauty 

[*jason*]

(12-01-2020, 02:01 AM)bfine32 Wrote: That 1 preseason run was a thing of beauty 

That's folk lore status... That does suck that he got hurt. Cedric Benson worked out pretty well in Irons' place though.

[J24]

The first RD has three good to great starters at the arguably the three most important positions QB, LT, and CB but the 2nd RD has been way more consistent year in and year out. I would go with RD 1 because Joe Burrow takes the cake.

[*rfaulk34*]

(12-01-2020, 01:54 AM)bfine32 Wrote: One could make an argument that throughout their history Bengals have done better in RD 2 than 1. Imay research a little more, but off the top of my head. Bengal greats taken in RD 2:

Boomer Esiason

Chad Johnson

Corey Dillon

Andrew Whitworth

Bill Bergey

Carlos Dunlap

Dan Ross

Carl Pickens

Kenny Irons

I agree they've done a wonderful job in rd 2, at least from the 80s on. Don't know about the rest, haven't looked it up.

I disagree if the reason you asked this was to "confirm" that the Bengals would be better off trading back because they're better in the 2nd than they are in the 1st. Technically, it's true but it's not a be-all-end-all, when the guy in rd 1 is rated as highly as Sewell is. 

Jonah Williams was a good pick but i wouldn't call him so good that the Bengals couldn't have moved down and gotten more picks. Sewell is too good to move down for an extra pick or two because the ROI is lower, based on the overall projection of talent. 

https://247sports.com/Article/Oregon-Ducks-football-Penei-Sewell-best-tackle-prospect-ever-NFL-Draft-2021-150837657/#:~:text=%22His%2095.8%20overall%20grade%20last,Sporting%20News%2C%20Sewell%20goes%20No.

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-oregon-offensive-tackle-penei-sewell-is-one-of-the-best-tackle-prospects-we-have-ever-seen

https://uga.rivals.com/news/fact-or-fiction-penei-sewell-is-the-best-ol-entering-2020

[Weazzel80]

If it was Joe Burrow vs all the other players listed; I'd take Joe Burrow.

[PDub80]

(12-01-2020, 03:34 AM)Weazzel80 Wrote: If it was Joe Burrow vs all the other players listed; I'd take Joe Burrow.

^ This