1 versus 2

[*SHRacerX*]

(11-30-2020, 11:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Recently been spending some time in the draft forum, because this season is over and I'm in timeout again. Lots of talk about how you cannot trust this team to scout other than the obvious pick; so I went back 5 years in our drafts and compared our first rounders versus our second rounders.

Which haul do you prefer?

William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow

Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Drew Sample, Tee Higgins

There is no doubt that these second rounders have (largely) outperformed their draft position, but I wouldn't call those first rounders all duds (only Price and Ross) because Burrow is the best pick out of all of them.  

There was some time there where our fourth round picks were some of the biggest contributors to our team.  The third round seemed like a lot of misses....Thankfully, Logan Wilson is showing that he was an excellent choice and is getting lots of playing time.  

I will add that next year's first rounder had better be a Burrow or Bates instead of a Ross or Price.  

[Essex Johnson]

I prefer to look at this draft less in what rounds 1 or 2 we had more success but can we trade one 1 round pick for 2 first round picks and will that make us better than picking just Sewell. Burrow showed he can be a good QB but this year also showed having a good QB is not enough when you have too many holes. There were games when we put up 30 points and still lost... and it was not one person on the line that made this a subpar line.

Another note, because someone is picked in top 5 does not mean they are top 5 in draft.. we see that especially with QBs.. for example Williams was the first Oline taken with pick 11 but that draft was heavy Defense in top 10, he might have went in top 10 if Defense was not so great that year.. I still see very good tackles in this draft we can acquire in pick 10 to 15 like we did with Williams... plus acquiring say a good WR or Dline or guard in 1st round also..

[Speedy Thomas]

(12-01-2020, 01:54 AM)bfine32 Wrote: One could make an argument that throughout their history Bengals have done better in RD 2 than 1. Imay research a little more, but off the top of my head. Bengal greats taken in RD 2:

Boomer Esiason

Chad Johnson

Corey Dillon

Andrew Whitworth

Bill Bergey

Carlos Dunlap

Dan Ross

Carl Pickens

Kenny Irons

Did you really forget Collinsworth?  Young man, you make me fear for your generation.

[*bfine32*]

(12-01-2020, 03:50 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: Did you really forget Collinsworth?  Young man, you make me fear for your generation.

I showed how "young" I am by listing Bill Bergey. 

[Speedy Thomas]

(12-01-2020, 03:58 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I showed how "young" I am by listing Bill Bergey. 

Impressive that you went back to 69.  That was a hell of a draft.  Most gifted QB in Bengals history in the 1st (Greg Cook, what might have been?), best LB in Bengals history in the 2nd (Bergey), and my man Speedy in the 3rd.

BTW:  Tommy Casanova.  Pete Johnson.  But I had to look them up.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-01-2020, 04:21 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: Impressive that you went back to 69.  That was a hell of a draft.  Most gifted QB in Bengals history in the 1st (Greg Cook, what might have been?), best LB in Bengals history in the 2nd (Bergey), and my man Speedy in the 3rd.

BTW:  Tommy Casanova.  Pete Johnson.  But I had to look them up.

Remember Speedy growing up.. sadly my man Essex drafted in 68 was on track to have a solid to great career  but for a knee injury in 1974..

Highlights show had good he was

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUBmedf6KOU 

[*psychdoctor*]

I cannot look pass Burrow. Nothing else matters. He is that special.

[fredtoast]

(12-01-2020, 07:22 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Highlights show had good he was

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUBmedf6KOU 

From 1970-73 he averaged 960 yards from scrimmage, 4.7 yards per carry and 14.2 yards per reception (86 for 1224 yds).  In those 4 years He had 9 receiving tds with 6 of them 39 yards or longer (39, 49, 51, 65, 67, and 78)

[Essex Johnson]

(12-01-2020, 11:18 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: There is no doubt that these second rounders have (largely) outperformed their draft position, but I wouldn't call those first rounders all duds (only Price and Ross) because Burrow is the best pick out of all of them.  

There was some time there where our fourth round picks were some of the biggest contributors to our team.  The third round seemed like a lot of misses....Thankfully, Logan Wilson is showing that he was an excellent choice and is getting lots of playing time.  

I will add that next year's first rounder had better be a Burrow or Bates instead of a Ross or Price.  

You really can;t put Burrow down yet as best pick after just one year and because

1.  Got hurt and out for 2/3s of season.. no idea how he is going to recover. 
2  he played well as a rookie but we did not win much and team was still in the 20s in scoring
3 Played bad against top tier teams in North... 
4 AJ rookie year was great and lead us to playoffs

[Essex Johnson]

(12-02-2020, 08:40 PM)fredtoast Wrote: From 1970-73 he averaged 960 yards from scrimmage, 4.7 yards per carry and 14.2 yards per reception (86 for 1224 yds).  In those 4 years He had 9 receiving tds with 6 of them 39 yards or longer (39, 49, 51, 65, 67, and 78)

thanks Fred for adding more context.. he was on his way to a solid to maybe great career... too bad for injury.. just think of the combo between Cook and him if they stayed healthy..wow

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-02-2020, 10:13 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: You really can;t put Burrow down yet as best pick after just one year and because

1.  Got hurt and out for 2/3s of season.. no idea how he is going to recover. 
2  he played well as a rookie but we did not win much and team was still in the 20s in scoring
3 Played bad against top tier teams in North... 
4 AJ rookie year was great and lead us to playoffs

Racer was specifically talking about the ones mentioned in the OP (William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow), and Burrow is without question the best of that bunch

FFS man.

[BengalChris]

(12-01-2020, 01:54 AM)bfine32 Wrote: One could make an argument that throughout their history Bengals have done better in RD 2 than 1. Imay research a little more, but off the top of my head. Bengal greats taken in RD 2:

Boomer Esiason

Chad Johnson

Corey Dillon

Andrew Whitworth

Bill Bergey

Carlos Dunlap

Dan Ross

Carl Pickens

Kenny Irons

Cris Collinsworth was a 2nd round pick and the teams 1st round pick that year was WR David Verser. Just to add to your list.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-02-2020, 10:13 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: You really can;t put Burrow down yet as best pick after just one year and because

1.  Got hurt and out for 2/3s of season.. no idea how he is going to recover. 
2  he played well as a rookie but we did not win much and team was still in the 20s in scoring
3 Played bad against top tier teams in North... 
4  AJ rookie year was great and lead us to playoffs

You might want to compare the points per game this year to that 2011 team, and I still think counting just wins as a QB measure is stupid as it completely discounts the team around him.  

[Essex Johnson]

(12-03-2020, 10:03 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: You might want to compare the points per game this year to that 2011 team, and I still think counting just wins as a QB measure is stupid as it completely discounts the team around him.  

2010 we won 4 games.. 2011 we take a very similar team outside of Dalton and Green and win 9.  AJ did have a great year with stats and leading offense to playoffs.  Burrow was having a solid rookie season but the injury that cut 2/3 of his season and the lack of improvement in the win department to me put AJ rookie year as a better year.. that is not a knock on Burrow when you are comparing him AJ Green one of the premier WRs for 7 years, I hope Burrow can reach the level at QB that AJ did at WR.. if he does we should wins some games in the future

[fredtoast]

(12-03-2020, 10:03 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: You might want to compare the points per game this year to that 2011 team,

2011....18th in scoring
2020....26th in scoring

It is easier to score points today in the NFL compared to 2011.

2011 offense was better.

(12-03-2020, 10:03 AM)SHRacerX Wrote:  I still think counting just wins as a QB measure is stupid as it completely discounts the team around him.  

I am not bashing Burrow when I say this, but do you remember when one of the biggest criticisms against Dalton was that he could not be effective without a lot of talent around him?

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-05-2020, 10:41 AM)fredtoast Wrote: 2011....18th in scoring
2020....26th in scoring

It is easier to score points today in the NFL compared to 2011.

2011 offense was better.



I am not bashing Burrow when I say this, but do you remember when one of the biggest criticisms against Dalton was that he could not be effective without a lot of talent around him?

Good ol Fred.  Likes to cherry pick some stats and try to make others look wrong.

Ok, bud, for the 2011 season, the Bengals did average 21.5 points per game.  They also had the #9 defense in the league that gave them more possessions, but I will stick to the original numbers.  The Bengals through 11 games this season  have averaged 20.9.  A DECREASE of .6 points per game.  Ok, but look at the games where Burrow played the entire game in 2020:  25.5.  An INCREASE of 4 points per game.  That would mean, it was better.  Despite having a defense that didn't yield near the possessions.

Another way to look at it:  Burrow (a rookie with no preseason) got the offense to 30 points or more four times in his first 8 games in the NFL.  
The Bengals in 2011 got to 30 or more points TWICE the entire season.

The 2011 offense was not better.  The defense was.  

[fredtoast]

(12-05-2020, 01:43 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Good ol Fred.  Likes to cherry pick some stats and try to make others look wrong.

Ok, bud, for the 2011 season, the Bengals did average 21.5 points per game.  They also had the #9 defense in the league that gave them more possessions, but I will stick to the original numbers.  The Bengals through 11 games this season  have averaged 20.9.  A DECREASE of .6 points per game.  Ok, but look at the games where Burrow played the entire game in 2020:  25.5.  An INCREASE of 4 points per game.  That would mean, it was better.  Despite having a defense that didn't yield near the possessions.

Another way to look at it:  Burrow (a rookie with no preseason) got the offense to 30 points or more four times in his first 8 games in the NFL.  
The Bengals in 2011 got to 30 or more points TWICE the entire season.

The 2011 offense was not better.  The defense was.  

C'mon man, everyone knows it is much easier to score points now than it was in 2011.  Scoring is up about 12% across the league.

In 2011 Matt Ryan was 8th in the league with a passer rating of 92.2.  This year he has a higher rating (92.5) but is ranked 21st.

The 2011 offense under Dalton was higher ranked than the 2020 offense under Burrow.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-05-2020, 03:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: C'mon man, everyone knows it is much easier to score points now than it was in 2011.  Scoring is up about 12% across the league.

In 2011 Matt Ryan was 8th in the league with a passer rating of 92.2.  This year he has a higher rating (92.5) but is ranked 21st.

The 2011 offense under Dalton was higher ranked than the 2020 offense under Burrow.

Amazing how different offense is in 10 years but dont mention that when you try to compare stats etc from 2011 to now.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-05-2020, 03:12 PM)fredtoast Wrote: C'mon man, everyone knows it is much easier to score points now than it was in 2011.  Scoring is up about 12% across the league.

In 2011 Matt Ryan was 8th in the league with a passer rating of 92.2.  This year he has a higher rating (92.5) but is ranked 21st.

The 2011 offense under Dalton was higher ranked than the 2020 offense under Burrow.

Scoring is up around the league 12%?  That is your counter to the Bengals scoring 4 more points per game than the 2011 offense under Burrow?  Because "everyone knows it is much easier to score points now than in 2011?".

In 2011, the Bengals faces such juggernauts as a 2 win Browns team (twice), a 6 win Bills team. a 5 win Jags team. a 2 win Curtis Painter-led Colts team, a 7 win Tavarius Jackson-led Seahawks team, and a 2-win Rams team.  

Fast foward to 2020 and you see the AFC North is all playoff teams (except the Bengals) and you play them all twice.  The Colts, Eagles, Chargers , and Washington Football Team have top-ranked defenses.   The only offenses I see on their 2020 schedule that are even below average is Jacksonville and Maybe Tennessee, at least while Burrow was playing.  

And 12% of 21.5 gives you 24.1 pts per game, not 25.5, but it is still a lame argument for this team given the different competition faced in 2020.  (EDIT:  The 2011 Bengals scored 20.8 points per game, and adding 12% to that would give you 23.3) The Matt Ryan example is especially pointless, as many teams have played a much more conservative game plan as metrics have shown them that the turnovers are what largely kill their team.  Look at the season DeShawn Watson is having.  A QB rating of 112.5 with a 69% completion %.  Sounds like he's headed to the playoffs and an All-Pro season, right?  Nope.  His QB rating is so high because he doesn't force passes and take any risks.  He tucks it down and runs.  Same with Jackson.  But then when they are behind and need to take chances they can't execute.  If you have a defense like pitt or even what baltimore was doing when healthy, you can do that, but at some point you are going to need to be more gunslinger and win some games.  But QB ratings being high across the board isn't a reflection of simply "offenses score more now", but a shift to game plans where they scheme folks open and don't take risks nearly as often.  


Alex Smith had a really good QB rating, but struggled in big games and playoffs because of this mentality.  I am not saying it is wrong (and I sure didn't see any conservative play from Burrow...that was smart for him to start and realize what NFL windows he could fit the ball in to) but it often yields artificially high QB ratings from garbage time where the QB would rather check it down and not force an INT.  

Lastly:  "The 2011 offense under Dalton was higher ranked than the 2020 offense under Burrow."  Wrong again, Fred.  The 2011 team averaged 20.8 points per game and was ranked 19th.  The 2020 Bengals were 25.5 points per game (under Burrow) which ranks them 16th in the league.  That 25.5 points is just .1 PPG behind Baltimore with the reigning MVP of the league, and .3 behind Miami at #14 overall.   In a league that you claim is "easier to score points" the Bengals have moved up on their peers in PPG while under Burrow.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(11-30-2020, 11:19 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Recently been spending some time in the draft forum, because this season is over and I'm in timeout again. Lots of talk about how you cannot trust this team to scout other than the obvious pick; so I went back 5 years in our drafts and compared our first rounders versus our second rounders.

Which haul do you prefer?

William Jackson III, John Ross, Billy Price, Jonah Williams, Joe Burrow

Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Jessie Bates III, Drew Sample, Tee Higgins

I think 2 has better players right now, but 1 has them at premium positions so you almost have to choose 1.

CB, LT, QB... that's some of the most important positions (and harder ones to fill) on a team. I think a (arbitrary number just for example) 6/10 CB is worth more than a 7/10 WR. A 7/10 QB is worth way more to a team's success than a 8/10 S.