Bills Fan Here...

[thebandit27]

(10-15-2015, 06:08 PM)McC Wrote: I never said they had no chance.  How can you have home field advantage with two losses in five games played.  Have you won a home game?

My opinion has way more to do with where the Bengals are than where the Bills are.  The Bengals, last January, got to that place where they finally said F this, we're done being who we were.  They finally said enough is enough and acted on it.  And so far, they are playing on a different level than ever before, and this is a team with 40 wins the last 4 years.  This is a level the Bills haven't gotten to yet.

The Bengals know how to attack Rex's D.  It goes back farther than the 49 points.  And there have never been this
many weapons or this QB playing at this level.

The Bengals D has given up some big play and way too many yards.  But when it was money time, they have made the clutch plays.   They have gotten the stops.

I just think the Bengals are farther along in their development than the Bills.  Because of that, your guys will have to be too close to perfect to sustain a 60 minute win.  Is that possible?  Maybe.

Maybe your D will do what no other has done so far.  Maybe your offense will do what no other has done. 

And just hope your coach doesn't have your team TOO amped up.  Just hope his desperation doesn't become their desperation.

To me, it comes down to margin for error.  Believe it or not, the Bengals have made plenty of mistakes so far and have much that needs to be and can be improved.  That's the scary part of the story.  The Bengals can and will be considerably better than they have been so far.

Yes, Buffalo beat Indy at home in week 1. Forgive me if I don't consider losses to two future HOF QBs as not having a home-field advantage. If you don't think they have one, go back and watch what they did to Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers in their most recent trip here.

Again with regard to attacking Rex's D, the same logic applies to the Bills. I understand that Cinci hasn't had this many playmakers before; neither has Rex on defense. In New Jersey, Rex had Revis, Cromartie, and some decent LBs for most of his time there. In Buffalo, he's got a defensive line with 3 perennial pro bowlers plus Jerry Hughes. He's got two CBs who, right now, some folks are calling the top tandem in the game (personally I'd give it to Denver's duo of Talib and Harris Jr, purely on longevity).

What's happened in the past with Jay Gruden's offense against the NJ Jets means zero. It's like me saying that Buffalo knows how to put up 24 points on Cincinnati's D with a 4th string QB because that's what happened in 2013. They're both non-sequitur statements.

You may believe that the Bengals will win, and I can't blame you. My point is that basing it on what they've done against defenses that don't really have any resemblance to this one doesn't make sense.

Again, we shall see...

[Sovereign Nation]

(10-16-2015, 09:29 AM)thebandit27 Wrote: I see there's been some action since I signed off--much appreciated.  I'll try to get to everything.


Appreciate the kind words.  I don't think Rex expects Gilmore to shut down Green completely--more like he anticipates he'll hold him in check relative to what other teams have done.

I also don't think they'll single up Eifert--I expect bracket-style coverage with a LB taking the short zone and a safety over the top.

As to how the QBs will respond, if Taylor does indeed play, I expect lots of roll-outs, moving pockets, etc. to keep him on the move.  When NE and Miami played lots of coverage against him, this was how Roman responded.

If Rex plays like that, then he will get murdered by MLJ again.  I am not the biggest Rex fan, but he doesn't seem like the guy to make the same mistake twice (on the field).

He relies on the blitz and likes to leave his DBs playing man.  With the way Dalton plays and him having trust in his pass catchers, this will play to our strengths.

If there are a lot of roll outs, that will also play to our strengths.  This was asked before, but who do you think is a better QB on the run?

Wilson or Taylor?

Yes, we can lose this game.  However we don't seem to be the same team in the past that would lose this game.  Even if we did lose the game, I like our chances of rebounding.  

[thebandit27]

Something I didn't realize:

@BuffaloBillsPR
Sunday's matchup has the potential for lots of big plays. The #Bengals are tied for the NFL lead w/ 27 big plays & the #Bills rank 3rd w/ 26

[thebandit27]

(10-16-2015, 10:09 AM)Sovereign Nation Wrote: If Rex plays like that, then he will get murdered by MLJ again.  I am not the biggest Rex fan, but he doesn't seem like the guy to make the same mistake twice (on the field).

He relies on the blitz and likes to leave his DBs playing man.  With the way Dalton plays and him having trust in his pass catchers, this will play to our strengths.

If there are a lot of roll outs, that will also play to our strengths.  This was asked before, but who do you think is a better QB on the run?

Wilson or Taylor?

Yes, we can lose this game.  However we don't seem to be the same team in the past that would lose this game.  Even if we did lose the game, I like our chances of rebounding.  

Nickell Robey is a far better slot corner than you're giving him credit for being...he's not mismatched against Jones.

I'd also be concerned with Jones saying things like this:

"It's the same defense, obviously, but this is a new season," Jones said. "I want to do something new. I already did that."

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/183902/why-bengals-wr-marvin-jones-will-be-racing-bills-blitzers-sunday

Marvin, this is not the same defense. In Jersey, Rex played a 30 front and lacked great edge rushers. In Buffalo, Rex plays primarily a 4-man front and has excellent edge rushers. It's closer to Pettine's scheme from 2013 than it is to Rex's, though they're not really the same.

I do believe that Wilson's a better passer than Taylor. It might surprise you, however, to learn that Taylor is tied with Wilson in pass plays of over 20 yards with 19 (tied for 6th in the league), has been sacked 8 fewer times, has a better passer rating (103.6 to 99.1), and is nearly identical in completion percentage (70.1 to 70.7), YPA (8.01 to 7.95), and rushing yards (187 to 198). Taylor has also scored 11 total TDs to Wilson's 6 this season.

I guess I'm saying that they aren't nearly as different in ability as you might think looking from the outside.

Completely agree that this Bengals team looks the most prepared to win over the long haul than any in recent memory. I don't think you'll see a huge letdown, and if you do lose, it won't be because you're not a good team. Good teams lose; and it's neither uncommon nor shameful to lose to another good team, on the road, after emotional and/or physical games. Doesn't mean that they will; just means that they might.

[XenoMorph]

looks like there is a forcast for some SNOW @ buffalo on sunday... that will add a nice little twist to this game

[thebandit27]

(10-16-2015, 12:08 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: looks like there is a forcast for some SNOW @ buffalo on sunday... that will add a nice little twist to this game

Right now, it looks like cool and blustery (low 40's, standard-issue Orchard Park winds of 10-15 MPH), with 20% chance of rain.

Hopefully the cold front holds off until after the game, because otherwise it has the potential to be one of those "misery" weather games that we occasion to have up here--where the temperature is above freezing at kickoff, and drops to low/mid 30s by the 2nd half...which means the rain starts to freeze and you end up wearing a sheet of ice.

I'm not exaggerating; it's happened to me twice where I literally had to break ice formations off of my clothing mid-game.

Rain? Meh.
Snow? Hooray!
That stuff? No thanks.

[Sovereign Nation]

(10-16-2015, 10:27 AM)thebandit27 Wrote: Nickell Robey is a far better slot corner than you're giving him credit for being...he's not mismatched against Jones.

I'd also be concerned with Jones saying things like this:

"It's the same defense, obviously, but this is a new season," Jones said. "I want to do something new. I already did that."

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/183902/why-bengals-wr-marvin-jones-will-be-racing-bills-blitzers-sunday

Marvin, this is not the same defense.  In Jersey, Rex played a 30 front and lacked great edge rushers.  In Buffalo, Rex plays primarily a 4-man front and has excellent edge rushers.  It's closer to Pettine's scheme from 2013 than it is to Rex's, though they're not really the same.

I do believe that Wilson's a better passer than Taylor.  It might surprise you, however, to learn that Taylor is tied with Wilson in pass plays of over 20 yards with 19 (tied for 6th in the league), has been sacked 8 fewer times, has a better passer rating (103.6 to 99.1), and is nearly identical in completion percentage (70.1 to 70.7), YPA (8.01 to 7.95), and rushing yards (187 to 198).  Taylor has also scored 11 total TDs to Wilson's 6 this season.

I guess I'm saying that they aren't nearly as different in ability as you might think looking from the outside.

Completely agree that this Bengals team looks the most prepared to win over the long haul than any in recent memory.  I don't think you'll see a huge letdown, and if you do lose, it won't be because you're not a good team.  Good teams lose; and it's neither uncommon nor shameful to lose to another good team, on the road, after emotional and/or physical games.  Doesn't mean that they will; just means that they might.

Jones doesn't play the slot.  Normally that is Sanu.  Though all of our WRs can play in multiple spots.  Green might be in the slot.

Aside from that.  I don't think you realize that Robey is a good DB, but he isn't the "perfect" match up on any of our WRs that you think he is.  He is in his 3rd year, is 5-8 and 165lbs.  If he is going up against the 6-2, 198lb Jones or the 6-2, 210lb Sanu, then that is a favorable match up for the Bengals.

Robey would have to play perfect technique all game long. 

All I am saying is that if the Bills played the way you think they should, then that would leave Jones open.  If you want to account for Jones, then you will have to leave Eifert open (Lawson is good, but not great at stopping TEs).  If you somehow have Green, Jones and Eifert double covered (without having 12 men on the field) then you will be leaving Sanu and our RBs open.

I think you aren't giving the Jets DLine enough credit.  Richardson and Wilkerson aren't slouches. The LBers Pace, Couples and Henderson are all good players.  From a Defensive aspect, the Bills are very similar to what we faced when we played the Jets.  That is why everyone keeps mentioning that it is the same.

Now, I will give you a pass for thinking Taylor is in the same league as Wilson.  All fans think their players are just as good if not better than other players.  Just know that only Bills fans would think that they are the same. 

[thebandit27]

(10-16-2015, 12:35 PM)Sovereign Nation Wrote: Jones doesn't play the slot.  Normally that is Sanu.  Though all of our WRs can play in multiple spots.  Green might be in the slot.

Aside from that.  I don't think you realize that Robey is a good DB, but he isn't the "perfect" match up on any of our WRs that you think he is.  He is in his 3rd year, is 5-8 and 165lbs.  If he is going up against the 6-2, 198lb Jones or the 6-2, 210lb Sanu, then that is a favorable match up for the Bengals.

Robey would have to play perfect technique all game long. 

All I am saying is that if the Bills played the way you think they should, then that would leave Jones open.  If you want to account for Jones, then you will have to leave Eifert open (Lawson is good, but not great at stopping TEs).  If you somehow have Green, Jones and Eifert double covered (without having 12 men on the field) then you will be leaving Sanu and our RBs open.

I think you aren't giving the Jets DLine enough credit.  Richardson and Wilkerson aren't slouches. The LBers Pace, Couples and Henderson are all good players.  From a Defensive aspect, the Bills are very similar to what we faced when we played the Jets.  That is why everyone keeps mentioning that it is the same.

Now, I will give you a pass for thinking Taylor is in the same league as Wilson.  All fans think their players are just as good if not better than other players.  Just know that only Bills fans would think that they are the same. 

Of course they'll move chess pieces around; all OCs do that.

I don't deny that Robey is at a size disadvantage. Typically, the ball needs to be thrown over the top of the defense to put that to use. As I said, Ryan's defense has been dictating all season long the short, quick throws. They don't really leave time for over-the-top throws. They've only allowed 3 pass completions of 40 yards or more all season, and two of them came long after games were decided (the 3rd was, quite possibly, the most impressive throw/cover/catch scenario I've ever seen--Brady to Amendola late in the 4th quarter on 3rd and long).

In the link I posted, Jones himself was talking about needing to beat defenders to a spot. Those kinds of throws typically favor speed players over size. That's not to say that the Bengal WRs aren't fast; they just don't hold a speed advantage over Buffalo's CBs.

I will virtually guarantee you that they won't be doubling all of Eifert/Green/Jones, and Rex doesn't feel that they need to (nor do I, for that matter). They'll "double" Eifert with bracket coverage and let Gilmore and Darby cover Green and the other boundary corner (sounds like Jones), respectively. I doubt they expect to shut those guys down with perfect coverage all day; it's more likely they'll play press man to disrupt route timing, and count on Cinci using the "get the ball out immediately" approach to avoid having to deal with Buffalo's pass rush.

Re: the Jets' DL, yes, they're good. Wilkerson and Richardson, in particular, are tough. Perhaps they're comparable to Dareus/Kyle, but the edge defenders aren't close. I'm not sure who the LB Henderson is...my recollection tells me that David Harris and Demario Davis were the ILBs in Rex's D in NJ.

As to Taylor comparing to Wilson, all I said was that their respective levels of play this year were quite similar; you're rushing to judgement to say that I'm viewing Taylor's level of play through a colored fan lens. Wilson hasn't been the Wilson of 2013 or 2014 this year; that much is apparent.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-16-2015, 09:35 AM)thebandit27 Wrote: Again, I don't see how you can read my post that way, unless you missed my comments about the weaknesses along the right side of the OL, the erratic QB play, the mixed bag at LB, and the inconsistency at safety (which I suppose I understand given how long it was).

I have no need to convince myself of anything.  I watch the team with quite the critical eye.

Just a friendly little jab. Call it...Smack Lite. 

Bengals always have trouble in Buffalo regardless of players or circumstances so i expect a tight game regardless. 

Top to bottom, the Bengals have the more talented and tested roster and they're not really bothered by opponents crowd noise. Listening to a local sports talk guy, it seem to be that the biggest danger on Sunday will be to anyone wearing Bengals colors in the Stadium.

You may enjoy Rex Ryan now, but i guarantee, you will tire of him quickly and then spend a good number of Sundays wishing him the hell out of there. 

Good luck Sunday and good health to both teams going forward. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-16-2015, 09:50 AM)thebandit27 Wrote: You may believe that the Bengals will win, and I can't blame you.  My point is that basing it on what they've done against defenses that don't really have any resemblance to this one doesn't make sense.

Again, we shall see...

I think the biggest thing giving the players and Bengals fans confidence is two-fold. 

1. Health. Quality talent across the board. Green, Jones, Sanu, Eifert, Bernard and Hill. Then, just when you think you have them under control (which hasn't happened yet this year) Rex Burkhead comes in and makes a play or two. 

2. The way Dalton has shown his continued progression in reading defenses and getting the ball to the proper receiver. Plus, he's always in the top 3 in getting the ball out quick. That's a deadly combination and it's been displayed consistently this year. Hue trusts him with the entire playbook at the line of scrimmage and he's shown the ability to get out of bad plays numerous times in each game this year.

[*bengalfan74*]

I think a lot hinges on one thing, possibly two.

1. If we can run the ball on you it could get ugly for you.

If we can't run the ball on you it might be a decent game.

2. Rex and his blitzes, if they work some, it could become a game.

If the blitz isn't working and Rex gets heated he'll expose your DB's way to much, determined it's going to work ! And again it could get ugly.

I'd say we win 6/7 out of 10 times.

[thebandit27]

(10-16-2015, 01:16 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Just a friendly little jab. Call it...Smack Lite. 

Bengals always have trouble in Buffalo regardless of players or circumstances so i expect a tight game regardless. 

Top to bottom, the Bengals have the more talented and tested roster and they're not really bothered by opponents crowd noise. Listening to a local sports talk guy, it seem to be that the biggest danger on Sunday will be to anyone wearing Bengals colors in the Stadium.

You may enjoy Rex Ryan now, but i guarantee, you will tire of him quickly and then spend a good number of Sundays wishing him the hell out of there. 

Good luck Sunday and good health to both teams going forward. 

I think it's actually very close between the two rosters, but given the importance of the QB position and the obvious performance gap between Taylor and Dalton, I'd have to say it's Cinci with the edge in talent.

The fan-on-fan crime in the stadium is, IMO, a bit overblown. You just need to avoid the Canadians that show up to the parking lot hammered at 9 a.m. on Saturday (not an exaggeration) and just keep right on boozing up to game time.

In actuality, if you're the cool kind of visiting fan, you won't have any issues (even Pats fans).

When I say Rex is fun to have around, I mean as a person, not as a coach. He really needs to start learning from his mistakes. I don't mind the bravado, and I don't mind the talk. That stuff means nothing. What bothers me is the undisciplined penalties and the lack of mid-game adjustments. That's gotta get better.

(10-16-2015, 01:25 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I think the biggest thing giving the players and Bengals fans confidence is two-fold. 

1. Health. Quality talent across the board. Green, Jones, Sanu, Eifert, Bernard and Hill. Then, just when you think you have them under control (which hasn't happened yet this year) Rex Burkhead comes in and makes a play or two. 

2. The way Dalton has shown his continued progression in reading defenses and getting the ball to the proper receiver. Plus, he's always in the top 3 in getting the ball out quick. That's a deadly combination and it's been displayed consistently this year. Hue trusts him with the entire playbook at the line of scrimmage and he's shown the ability to get out of bad plays numerous times in each game this year.

Yes, you've succinctly covered the traits that make the offense dangerous.

One of the reasons I look forward to this game is the chess match aspect. Rex, like him or not, is a creative defensive mind. Seeing what he does to counter Cinci's attack will be very interesting. Fan to fan, I'm telling you that receptions out of the backfield could be the difference for your offense.

(10-16-2015, 01:59 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I think a lot hinges on one thing, possibly two.

1. If we can run the ball on you it could get ugly for you.

If we can't run the ball on you it might be a decent game.

2. Rex and his blitzes, if they work some, it could become a game.

If the blitz isn't working and Rex gets heated he'll expose your DB's way to much, determined it's going to work ! And again it could get ugly.

I'd say we win 6/7 out of 10 times.

I agree on point 1. If Cincinnati gets the run game going, it won't be pretty. That said, Buffalo has been really stout against the run. Miami got some rushing yards once Buffalo was up by 3 scores, and the Giants started to grind out yards late when Buffalo's offense went 3-and-out a bajillion times without Sammy, Shady, and Cordy Glenn (and with the OL taking penalty after penalty).

Regarding point 2, you might be surprised. Against Brady, Rex really limited his blitz calls (which was shocking). It seems that with this particular defensive unit, he's more interested in blitzing to force the ball out quickly, not necessarily to hit the QB. Again though, he's not worried about exposing the DBs. That's justified when it comes to the CBs, but not so much with regard to the safeties.

6 out of 7 seems a bit much to me...if we're talking about this game, between these two teams, played in this venue, I'd say Cinci wins 4 out of 7. On a neutral field in Wichita, Kansas (as Peter King likes to say), I'd say 5 out of 7.

[thebandit27]

Latest injury news for Buffalo:

@MatthewFairburn
Tyrod Taylor and Percy Harvin are questionable for Sunday. LeSean McCoy is probable.

@buffalobills
Rex: Taylor, Watkins, McCoy questionable for Sunday's game. "Tyrod is feeling a lot better, I can tell you that."

‏@SalSports
No decision on who will start at QB for Bills. Rex says Tyrod is felling better and wants to play.

@buffalobills
Rex: Watkins, Taylor, Harvin are questionable, McCoy is probable for Sunday's game.

[IsaacCurtis]

I was going to pick Bills but the QB iffyness says otherwise.

It doesn't matter though,the Bills will have a good year going forward.

[XenoMorph]

(10-16-2015, 01:59 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I think a lot hinges on one thing, possibly two.

1. If we can run the ball on you it could get ugly for you.

If we can't run the ball on you it might be a decent game.

2. Rex and his blitzes, if they work some, it could become a game.

If the blitz isn't working and Rex gets heated he'll expose your DB's way to much, determined it's going to work ! And again it could get ugly.

I'd say we win 6/7 out of 10 times.

i think dalton is actually doing better vs the blitz this year than when hes clean hes doing a great job of finding that one on one matchup

[McC]

(10-16-2015, 09:50 AM)thebandit27 Wrote: Yes, Buffalo beat Indy at home in week 1.  Forgive me if I don't consider losses to two future HOF QBs as not having a home-field advantage.  If you don't think they have one, go back and watch what they did to Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers in their most recent trip here.

Again with regard to attacking Rex's D, the same logic applies to the Bills.  I understand that Cinci hasn't had this many playmakers before; neither has Rex on defense.  In New Jersey, Rex had Revis, Cromartie, and some decent LBs for most of his time there.  In Buffalo, he's got a defensive line with 3 perennial pro bowlers plus Jerry Hughes.  He's got two CBs who, right now, some folks are calling the top tandem in the game (personally I'd give it to Denver's duo of Talib and Harris Jr, purely on longevity).

What's happened in the past with Jay Gruden's offense against the NJ Jets means zero.  It's like me saying that Buffalo knows how to put up 24 points on Cincinnati's D with a 4th string QB because that's what happened in 2013.  They're both non-sequitur statements.

You may believe that the Bengals will win, and I can't blame you.  My point is that basing it on what they've done against defenses that don't really have any resemblance to this one doesn't make sense.

Again, we shall see...

If the corners are so good, why is your D 27th against the pass?  Something does not compute.

[thebandit27]

(10-16-2015, 04:50 PM)McC Wrote: If the corners are so good, why is your D 27th against the pass?  Something does not compute.

Same answer I gave the other poster that asked this exact question yesterday:

"Well, that's because of two things: 1) you're looking at yards/game, which can easily be skewed by garbage time yards (which Indy and Miami had a TON of), and 2) Brady burned them for over 450 yards, which is going to inflate any numbers.

As I said in the OP, the team is 4th in yards/pass attempt allowed and 6th in QB rating against, which are generally more telling stats.

It's also noteworthy that both Gilmore and Darby are in the top 3 in the NFL in passes defended, and rank in the top 4 in QB rating against."

If we go by yards/game, then I'm supposed to believe that the Bears have the #4 overall defense in the NFL...yet somehow, they allow 28.4 points/game, which ranks 29th.  You're quite right, something does not compute.

Yards/game is a very flawed analytical tool.

[McC]

(10-16-2015, 05:02 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Same answer I gave the other poster that asked this exact question yesterday:

"Well, that's because of two things: 1) you're looking at yards/game, which can easily be skewed by garbage time yards (which Indy and Miami had a TON of), and 2) Brady burned them for over 450 yards, which is going to inflate any numbers.

As I said in the OP, the team is 4th in yards/pass attempt allowed and 6th in QB rating against, which are generally more telling stats.

It's also noteworthy that both Gilmore and Darby are in the top 3 in the NFL in passes defended, and rank in the top 4 in QB rating against."

If we go by yards/game, then I'm supposed to believe that the Bears have the #4 overall defense in the NFL...yet somehow, they allow 28.4 points/game, which ranks 29th.  You're quite right, something does not compute.

Yards/game is a very flawed analytical tool.  Maybe you'll play them before that happens.

Maybe you will play the perfect 60 minute game and win.  Won't be much longer now.  Just remember this--fwiw, the Bengals still haven't peaked.

Losing to the Giants at home, though, no matter what the excuses are...

[thebandit27]

(10-16-2015, 05:10 PM)McC Wrote: Maybe you will play the perfect 60 minute game and win.  Won't be much longer now.  Just remember this--fwiw, the Bengals still haven't peaked.

Losing to the Giants at home, though, no matter what the excuses are...

I think you're exaggerating saying that it'll take a perfect 60 minute game to win.

You can talk about losing to the Giants and excuses...I can just as easily point out that the Bengals lost on the road to the Colts last January; a game in which your QB completed 50% of his passes for less than 200 yards, and that Buffalo dismantled that same Colts team at home 4 weeks ago.

Again, both are non-sequitur arguments that have no practical application in the analysis of Sunday's game. Our two teams haven't played this season, so it's all conjecture as to who matches up better against who.

And I'll point out: the Bills haven't peaked either.

Regardless, my last response to you was intended to answer your question, which I seem to have done in some satisfactory fashion.

I'll check back in once or twice more before Sunday's game in case anyone else wants to discuss further.

Until then, be well everyone.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-16-2015, 02:23 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: The fan-on-fan crime in the stadium is, IMO, a bit overblown.  You just need to avoid the Canadians that show up to the parking lot hammered at 9 a.m. on Saturday (not an exaggeration) and just keep right on boozing up to game time.

We have a fan on these boards that lives in Canada and is going to the game.
He went to the last game as well, but he's not the kind to booze it up and be belligerent, based on his past shared experiences.