3-3-3-3

[PikesPeakUC]

1st Pick - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
2nd Pick - Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State
3rd Pick - Elijah Molden, CB, Washington


Cut:
C.J. Uzomah
Bobby Hart
B.J. Finney


Re-Sign:
Carl Lawson
William Jackson
Kevin Huber


Free Agents:

Solomon Thomas, DE, 49ers - I think he has value and can play, just got passed up by other players in San Francisco. The Bengals have always bet on first round reclamation projects.

Mike Iupati, G, Seahawks - Has been solid for the Seahawks this year. Had some injury woes, but has played 446 snaps this season and has only allowed one sack.

Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams - Played the third fiddle for the Rams, which will lower his value on the market, but has the ability and knows Taylor well.

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-12-2020, 04:44 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I signed Gerald Everett. He has experience with Zac, is very durable, a former 2nd rounder who in on depthchart behind Higbee. 

Yeah, but Zac won't be here, right?

Right???????  

[SunsetBengal]

(12-12-2020, 04:44 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I signed Gerald Everett. He has experience with Zac, is very durable, a former 2nd rounder who in on depthchart behind Higbee. 

I like Everett, he's a great blocker in both run and pass, has nice hands and can move well.  I always wondered why the Rams never chose to make him a bigger part of their offense, but I guess he's just one of those heroes that doesn't present well on the stat sheet.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-12-2020, 11:32 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: 1.  Penei Sewell  OT  Oregon

2.  Trey Smith OG  Tennessee

3.  Marvin Wilson  DT  Fla. St.

Why?  Because I feel that it is abundantly apparent that the Bengals need to build up the lines on both sides of the ball.  Everyone is familiar with Sewell, so no explanations needed here.  

Trey Smith is big and very powerful at the point of attack.  Described as a line mover in run blocking, a player like Smith would give some desperately needed credibility to the Bengals interior OL.  Pass Pro could use a little technical refinement, but he has the physical traits and instincts that cannot be coached.

I went with Wilson because he strikes me as a guy that will develop into an explosive 3T, similar to Geno Atkins for most of his playing career.  Explosive off the ball with a powerful "club and swim" move.  Needs to develop a solid second move (perhaps a rip?), and needs a little coaching on maintaining discipline as far as pad level.

Edit:  I'll finish the cuts, retains, and pickups later..

Cut
Hart $5.9
Uzo $5.0
Finney $3.5

Re-sign
Lawson $9
Alexander $6
Spain $3

Add
Troy Hill $12
G. Everett $6.5
C. Samuel $7

This should leave about $14M for back of the roster signings?

[Luvnit2]

I love the exercise, but garbage in equals garbage out. The salary cap estimate is $176 million, it was close to $200 million in 2020 so close to a 15% reduction. To me this means, we will see a 15% reduction (or close to it) on most free agents and or a lot if cuts due to many teams (10) already over the cap prior to the draft.

So the Bengals gain a 2 way competitive advantage, they have an estimated 42 million in cap space prior to any cuts they may make or salaries reduced (i see most teams reducing salaries of some players). The second advantage is they have great draft position, it may cost them more for their rookie pools, but vets will still be a lot more expensive than rookies. For example, a rookie LT/RT for 4 years will be 8 to 10 million cheaper than an all pro OT vet on 2nd or 3rd contract.

Cut savings - (does not count restructure CJ, T. Waynes and others) = $20.2 million added to $42 million = 62.2 million
I cut and save almost 10 million with Geno
I cut and save 4 million with Gio
I cut and save 3 million with Finney
Billy Price - save 3.2 million

FA Signings and own Signings = 47.5 million
Thuney -14 million
Dupree 14 million
M. Alexander - 5.5 million
W. Jackson - 8 million
Huber 3.2 million
C.Samuals 7.5 million

Rookie Pool - 11 million, so leaves at least 4 million for injury pool or cut Hart for 6 million after TC is Sewall is ready to start 2021
1. Sewall (OT)
2. D. Brown - OG Alabama
3. Sage Surratt Wake Forest

[samhain]

(12-12-2020, 06:31 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I love the exercise, but garbage in equals garbage out. The salary cap estimate is $176 million, it was close to $200 million in 2020 so close to a 15% reduction. To me this means, we will see a 15% reduction (or close to it) on most free agents and or a lot if cuts due to many teams (10) already over the cap prior to the draft.

So the Bengals gain a 2 way competitive advantage, they have an estimated 42 million in cap space prior to any cuts they may make or salaries reduced (i see most teams reducing salaries of some players). The second advantage is they have great draft position, it may cost them more for their rookie pools, but vets will still be a lot more expensive than rookies. For example, a rookie LT/RT for 4 years will be 8 to 10 million cheaper than an all pro OT vet on 2nd or 3rd contract.

Cut savings - (does not count restructure CJ, T. Waynes and others) = $20.2 million added to $42 million = 62.2 million
I cut and save almost 10 million with Geno
I cut and save 4 million with Gio
I cut and save 3 million with Finney
Billy Price - save 3.2 million

FA Signings and own Signings = 47.5 million
Thuney -14 million
Dupree 14 million
M. Alexander - 5.5 million
W. Jackson - 8 million
Huber 3.2 million
C.Samuals 7.5 million

Rookie Pool - 11 million, so leaves at  least 4 million for injury pool or cut Hart for 6 million after TC is Sewall is ready to start 2021
1. Sewall (OT)
2. D. Brown - OG Alabama
3. Sage Surratt Wake Forest

I agree.  I don't think they're likely to go wild on spending, but they're in as good of a position as anyone in terms of cap.  When I see people say they can't afford this or that player, I think it's strange.  They can afford high-end free agents as much as any team, save maybe the 5 with more cap room next year.  That combined with likely declining salaries due to decreased revenue makes them being players in major FA much more feasible.

[JSR18]

(12-12-2020, 02:30 PM)samhain Wrote: I've seen estimates like that.  I'm skeptical of them.  The Bengals paid Wanyes a lot of money last year and in doing so set a precedent for what they will pay a top corner.  Does WJ3 consider himself the team's best corner?  Do the Bengals?  I'd say he likely does.  I'd be surprised if he was willing to take less that what the team paid Waynes to stay here.

 If so, that speaks volumes!! WJIII should be on the 1st thing outta here--smokin"...

[Crowe]

Cut:
- Geno Atkins ($9.6 mill saved)
- Bobby Hart ($6.9 mill saved)
- CJ Uzomah ($6.1 mill saved)

Re-sign:
- Spain
- Lawson
- Alexander

FA:
- Joe Thuney - starting LG
- Ryan Kerrigan - starting Edge
- Curtis Samuel - WR3

Draft:
- Penei Sewell, OT Oregon
- Carlos Basham Jr, DE Wake Forest
- Jaylen Twyman, DT Pitt

I'll add coaching changes as well

- Robert Saleh, Head Coach
- Wade Phillips, Def Coor
- Joe Brady, Off Coor

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(12-12-2020, 04:32 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Draft:
Penei Sewell OT Oregon
Creed Humphrey IOL Okla/Alex Leatherwood OT/OG Alabama
Quincy Roche DE Miami

Cut:
Geno Atkins (9.6M savings)
Bobby Hart (5.9M savings)
Billy Price (2.1M savings) (I'm not sure I'd do this cut because he could maybe be a serviceable backup C for a decent price but if I had to choose a third, it'd be him)

Re-sign:
William Jackson III (14M AAV)
Mackensie Alexander (6M AAV)
Kevin Huber (2.5M AAV)
I was considering tacking on Carl Lawson, but I don't know how much he is worth considering he is a "good pass rusher" but never really collects any stats to show that. His value will be very dependent on how other teams view him and that's incredibly hard to predict.

Sign:
Leonard Williams (14.5M AAV)
Andy Dalton (4M AAV)
a mid tier LB or DT, depending on the market, ~4M AAV

That would, apparently, leave about 14 million in cap space to sign the rookie pool and any other free agents that we may go after. I was considering going after Thuney, but 15 to 16M is a lot to spend on a guard and I think we could double dip Oline in the draft and come away with a ready to play guard prospect, so I went with the Dline help instead as the big ticket signing.

I didn't include an extension for Bates because his contract isn't expiring, but I wouldn't be surprised if they went with that over re-signing WJIII, as safeties are a little bit cheaper than CBs and we do have Waynes who is already costing us so much money at CB.

It's interesting, I agree with at least one part of everything that's been posted so far, but do not agree entirely with any of them. Makes for a good discussion thread. 

This is probably the one I like the best. If we were voting, I'd vote for it. 

Couple small quibbles though:

At least according to overthecap.com (which I prefer to spotrac), we'd save Price's salary if we trade him but not if we cut him. I don't know why or if that's even accurate. But remember, we save 3.5M by cutting Finney anyway, and a little over 2.5 if we cut XSF. So I don't think Price is a must. 

I'd love to have Dalton back but I have a really hard time seeing it under any circumstances. 

I think your AAV estimates are pretty accurate (not sure why Mac's would go up though, but others have said that too). I do want to point out for everybody that AAV doesn't always equate to first year cap hit. Waynes's AAV was around 14M but his first year hit was only 10. Reader's deal was about the same. I believe this is what most teams do, and we only started doing it last year. And I think it's a good idea for several reasons. 

But I'd be cool with how the roster shapes up if we followed your plan. 

[kacymcbryant18]

It's also worth pointing out that there is growing optimism around the league that the salary cap may not decrease as much as originally projected. The introduction of the vaccine and the potential for full stadiums next year plus the new TV contracts could possibly change the equation.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/12/06/optimism-emerges-regarding-2021-salary-cap/

[THE PISTONS]

I dont think Roche will be a good pass rusher in the pros.

Grab Brevin Jordan the TE from Miami instead...assuming he declares.

[samhain]

Looking a free agents and guys who will be around when we're drafting in round 2 made me realize that corner talent may be slim pickings this offseason. That may make WJ3 returning more crucial than I thought. Not many interior d-linemen to speak of in FA, either. This may be something to consider when it comes to who we draft (after Sewell, of course).

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(12-13-2020, 12:22 PM)samhain Wrote: Looking a free agents and guys who will be around when we're drafting in round 2 made me realize that corner talent may be slim pickings this offseason.  That may make WJ3 returning more crucial than I thought.  Not many interior d-linemen to speak of in FA, either.  This may be something to consider when it comes to who we draft (after Sewell, of course).

I think this is actually a crucial point. It's a very weak FA CB class. WJIII is a good-not-great CB, but he's probably the best CB in the FA class, in a league starved for CBs. That's why I think it's imperative that we either re-sign him, or franchise him. If we franchise him, it's possible to trade him. 

But if we just let him walk, we'll handcuff ourselves in the draft. We couldn't wait until after the 2nd round to get a CB, they're just too hard to find. And the CB draft class is looking pretty average. 

[CJD]

(12-12-2020, 10:49 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: It's interesting, I agree with at least one part of everything that's been posted so far, but do not agree entirely with any of them. Makes for a good discussion thread. 

This is probably the one I like the best. If we were voting, I'd vote for it. 

Couple small quibbles though:

At least according to overthecap.com (which I prefer to spotrac), we'd save Price's salary if we trade him but not if we cut him. I don't know why or if that's even accurate. But remember, we save 3.5M by cutting Finney anyway, and a little over 2.5 if we cut XSF. So I don't think Price is a must. 

I'd love to have Dalton back but I have a really hard time seeing it under any circumstances. 

I think your AAV estimates are pretty accurate (not sure why Mac's would go up though, but others have said that too). I do want to point out for everybody that AAV doesn't always equate to first year cap hit. Waynes's AAV was around 14M but his first year hit was only 10. Reader's deal was about the same. I believe this is what most teams do, and we only started doing it last year. And I think it's a good idea for several reasons. 

But I'd be cool with how the roster shapes up if we followed your plan. 

Thanks! Yea, AAVs vs first year cap hits are a hard thing to really lock down. If I wanted to be janky, I could say "We sign Leonard Williams to a 3 year 45 million dollar contract but his first year is only 5 million!" It would lead to more flexibility in this little rebuild exercise, but it's not really realistic and even harder to predict what the player will accept. That's why I just stuck with the standard "every year is approximately the same" rebuild philosophy, even if it never really comes out that way in practice.

As far as Mack's increase, I think slot corners are going to increase in demand and I think he's shown well in that capacity this season. I don't know what COVID will do to the free agent market, maybe it depresses prices severely, maybe it has no effect but I wouldn't be surprised if Mack gets a raise when he signs a multi year contract. He has shown he can work in our system and I think taking a low cost 1 year deal was his way of proving his worth, of which he would theoretically reap this off season.

As for Price, I was kind of iffy on cutting him. It could be Finney too. Or we could just cut the two and not cut a third. I don't have a strong stance on this one. I do think we should keep XSF though. He looked pretty good out there today (although maybe I'm wrong, I'm just going off my impressions not any statistics).

And Dalton is kind of a fever dream haha. But we need a back up who can actually win games. If Burrow starts the season on the IR, we need to stay competitive until he comes back. I've seen people recommend Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mitch Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, RG3, Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer, or, really, any of the other myriad of decent QBs that enter the market in 2021. There will definitely be options. The point is we need to get someone who can win a game or two if Burrow is not ready to go (or, God forbid, gets injured again). Maybe if we fire ZT, Mike Brown can convince Dalton to come back, I dunno. But if not then we start to explore the others. The key is we cannot have Allen or Finley as the primary backup in 2021.

[*bfine32*]

Another 3 to help us moving forward. All 3 of the 3 win teams won today

[Knightmare on Elm Street]

(12-13-2020, 09:42 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Another 3 to help us moving forward. All 3 of the 3 win teams won today

I see you constantly talk about the DT from Iowa, where is his stock right now? I haven't heard alot about him in some of the pre-draft chatter.

[*bfine32*]

(12-13-2020, 09:54 PM)Knightmare on Elm Street Wrote: I see you constantly talk about the DT from Iowa, where is his stock right now? I haven't heard alot about him in some of the pre-draft chatter.

Such a hard year to forecast these things. I'll just stick with the theme and hope we take him with pick number 3 in round number 3. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-12-2020, 11:00 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Earlier I created a thread asking what you feel are the team's top 3 fixes. To continue with the exercise I've expanded the 3.

In this thread I ask you to:

Pick 3 draft choices  RD1-3 (If you don't know players, just like position you want)

Rd 1- Penei Sewell....Duh

Rd 2- Jalon Twyman, DT.  The next pass-rushing DT that we need to replace Geno

Rd 3- Chris Rumph- DE/OLB- Freaky fast edge rusher than lines up all over the place for Duke.  Just a pure playmaker.  Only defensive player that might be able to catch Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahommes.  If they are sticking 3-4, then he is a great option.  He will slide to here because of his size, but someone needs to tell the Bengals that the game is evolving and slow, plodding defensive players are dinosaurs.  


Pick 3 players that will be under contract that you will cut (you can list $ or not):

Shawn Williams
Bobby Hart
Ryan Finley...Don't care how little it saves.  GTF out of here.   

I struggled with Geno here, but I am hoping shoulder surgery can make him valuable one more year, but I could be convinced to let him go.  I just try to think in realistic terms of what the Brown family will do and while they CAN'T keep AJ, they could keep their most realistic shot at another HOFer.  

Pick 3 current players whose contract expires after this year that you will renew (see above about $)

WJIII
Mackenzie Alexander
Carl Lawson

Pick 3 FAs that you will sign (see above about $)

Joe Thuney, a kicker not named Fat Randy (more likely draft one late), and a backup QB not named Finley.  I personally love Colt McCoy, but I don't know his contract status.  I apologize if I am a little "pie in the sky" like I have the money to sign those FAs, and also retain the three I mentioned as those having contracts expiring that I would extend.  I am far from a cap-ologist, but I hope that would work.  I would be willing to part with Geno for Thuney.  I would hope that not re-signing Ross, Green, Williams, and maybe a few others would help here.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-12-2020, 11:09 AM)bfine32 Wrote: DRAFT
Penei Sewell OT
Daviyon Nixon DT
Deommodore Lenoir CB

CUT
DT-Geno Atkins ($13.4 Mil)
OT-Bobby Hart ($5.9 Mil)
TE-CJ Uzomah ($5.3 Mil)
Save approx. $25 Mil in Cap Space

RES=SIGN:
LG- Quinton Spain ($3 MIL)
CB- WJIII ($8 MIL)
ST- Brandon Wilson ($2 MIL)
Cost about $13 MIL to sign our own

FAs
TE-Gerald Everett ($4 Mil)
DE-Ziggy Ansah ($1.5 MIL)
WR-Curtis Samuel ($11 MIL)
Spend about  $13 MIL in new Signing

What about Lawson?  You letting him go?  What about the franchise tag?  Make him prove it another year before getting a contract?

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-12-2020, 02:30 PM)samhain Wrote: I've seen estimates like that.  I'm skeptical of them.  The Bengals paid Wanyes a lot of money last year and in doing so set a precedent for what they will pay a top corner.  Does WJ3 consider himself the team's best corner?  Do the Bengals?  I'd say he likely does.  I'd be surprised if he was willing to take less that what the team paid Waynes to stay here.

True.  There is a lot of speculation from those closer to the team that says he really doesn't want to be in Cincy.  His hope is (allegedly) to play in his hometown for the Texans.  I will say this:  If the Bengals ever play zone, just let him go.  He is totally lost in zone, but I consider him a really good CB.  

Hate to lose the guy, but if he doesn't want to be here are we ever going to get his best?