COVID and how it effects the Bengals off-season

[WeezyBengal]

After watching what my beloved Reds have done so far this off-season, I would say don't get your hopes up that the Bengals are going to go out and make significant moves in free agency this off-season. With the lack of revenue they are generating this season, there is no way Mike Brown is going to be willing to open up his wallet and spend money.

I can honestly see this team shedding payroll and not adding. The Bengals almost HAVE to be operating at a loss this year with the lack of ticket sales, concession/beer sales etc.

The Brown family is notorious for having all their eggs in the Bengals basket. This isn't like Jerry Jones who makes his billions elsewhere, this is almost it for the Browns.

I know everyone has their hopes up that we will go out and get some quality FAs, but couple the fact that the Brown's rarely do this (last off-season was the exception) with what COVID did to the league this year and there is just no way.

I hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't get too excited when you see them start shedding salary (Geno, Dunlap) thinking they will replace that salary with other players.

[Wes Mantooth]

Fortunately for us, they can't use this as an excuse to shed payroll because of the cap floor that is put in place (89% of cap spent over 4 years).

Also, remember that the league is projected to cut the leaguewide cap between 5% to 12% this year.  The lost revenue is built into these savings.

The 42 million in cap savings we've been seeing is with the high end of this (cap decreases over 10%) already accounted for.  The "shedding of payroll" (expenses) is built in.

And don't feel too bad for the only Brown family on loss of ticket sales and concessions.  Each team gets an estimated 250 million this year in TV revenue.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/06/13/tv-money-gives-nfl-leg-up-if-fans-cant-fill-teams-coffers/111957448/

Also, keep in mind the value of the franchise (part of their net worth) has increased by 200% over the last 15 seasons.  And this family has added probably around 1.5 BILLION dollars to their worth in the last 20 years.

If they try to in any way say that Covid is affecting their ability to spend anywhere then they're selling everyone a big steaming pile of BS.

[Whatever]

(12-16-2020, 01:54 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: After watching what my beloved Reds have done so far this off-season, I would say don't get your hopes up that the Bengals are going to go out and make significant moves in free agency this off-season. With the lack of revenue they are generating this season, there is no way Mike Brown is going to be willing to open up his wallet and spend money.

I can honestly see this team shedding payroll and not adding. The Bengals almost HAVE to be operating at a loss this year with the lack of ticket sales, concession/beer sales etc.

The Brown family is notorious for having all their eggs in the Bengals basket. This isn't like Jerry Jones who makes his billions elsewhere, this is almost it for the Browns.

I know everyone has their hopes up that we will go out and get some quality FAs, but couple the fact that the Brown's rarely do this (last off-season was the exception) with what COVID did to the league this year and there is just no way.

I hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't get too excited when you see them start shedding salary (Geno, Dunlap) thinking they will replace that salary with other players.

The revenue sharing checks from the tv deal alone are more than enough to cover the salary cap nowadays.  

[WeezyBengal]

(12-16-2020, 02:05 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Fortunately for us, they can't use this as an excuse to shed payroll because of the cap floor that is put in place (89% of cap spent over 4 years).

Also, remember that the league is projected to cut the leaguewide cap between 5% to 12% this year.  The lost revenue is built into these savings.

The 42 million in cap savings we've been seeing is with the high end of this (cap decreases over 10%) already accounted for.  The "shedding of payroll" (expenses) is built in.

And don't feel too bad for the only Brown family on loss of ticket sales and concessions.  Each team gets an estimated 250 million this year in TV revenue.

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2020/06/13/tv-money-gives-nfl-leg-up-if-fans-cant-fill-teams-coffers/111957448/

Also, keep in mind the value of the franchise (part of their net worth) has increased by 200% over the last 15 seasons.  And this family has added probably around 1.5 BILLION dollars to their worth in the last 20 years.

If they try to in any way say that Covid is affecting their ability to spend anywhere then they're selling everyone a big steaming pile of BS.

Good post. 

[*ochocincos*]

COVID is going to affect the NFL differently than MLB because MLB does not have a cap.
When it comes to NFL, the entire league will have a reduced payroll for 2021, and it will be the same.
It's currently estimated that the cap will drop to about $175 mill, which is a reduction of about $23 mill from 2020.
So basically, while people think the Bengals will have a lot of cap space by not having guys like AJ Green on the books, the cap reduction essentially removes that gain.

So we should see either cheaper contracts signed or contracts that are more backloaded such that a cheaper cap hit in 2021 but increasing in the year(s) after.

[RiverRat13]

(12-16-2020, 02:29 PM)ochocincos Wrote: COVID is going to affect the NFL differently than MLB because MLB does not have a cap.
When it comes to NFL, the entire league will have a reduced payroll for 2021, and it will be the same.
It's currently estimated that the cap will drop to about $175 mill, which is a reduction of about $23 mill from 2020.
So basically, while people think the Bengals will have a lot of cap space by not having guys like AJ Green on the books, the cap reduction essentially removes that gain.

So we should see either cheaper contracts signed or contracts that are more backloaded such that a cheaper cap hit in 2021 but increasing in the year(s) after.

The newer rumors are that the cap will be closer to the $190-195 range as owners are confident stadiums will be full next fall.  The Bengals have the opportunity to create plenty of space by cutting the right guys (Geno, Hart, Finney, CJ, etc.).  In either scenario, the better players are going to get paid but there will be a glut of middle class players who will be looking to sign show-me deals.  Those teams with astute front offices will take advantage of this glut.  

[*ochocincos*]

(12-16-2020, 02:45 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: The newer rumors are that the cap will be closer to the $190-195 range as owners are confident stadiums will be full next fall.  The Bengals have the opportunity to create plenty of space by cutting the right guys (Geno, Hart, Finney, CJ, etc.).  In either scenario, the better players are going to get paid but there will be a glut of middle class players who will be looking to sign show-me deals.  Those teams with astute front offices will take advantage of this glut.  

Source?

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-16-2020, 02:46 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Source?

I'm too lazy to look it up but, I've seen that the 176 mil estimate that was previously reported is now looking to be higher.

Fwiw, we're current at 42 mil and change in space with the 176 figure. 

[RiverRat13]

(12-16-2020, 02:46 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Source?

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/12/06/optimism-emerges-regarding-2021-salary-cap/

[THE PISTONS]

No more extravagent free agent dinner trips to Wendy's in person. They'll have to do take-out.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-16-2020, 03:09 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/12/06/optimism-emerges-regarding-2021-salary-cap/

Thanks.

From the article here https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease
the NFL and NFLPA have an agreement that the cap will not go below $175 mill, so my plan is to keep doing mocks with the expectations of $175 mill until we get a confirmation it's going to be different.

[jj22]

I'd take coaching changes (which will still cost money if they've signed for 5 years as stated elsewhere unfortunately) over further roster turnover (additions) at this point if "we" had to choose.

[THE PISTONS]

(12-16-2020, 03:31 PM)jj22 Wrote: I'd take coaching changes (which will still cost money if they've signed for 5 years as stated elsewhere unfortunately) over further roster turnover (additions) at this point if "we" had to choose.

Yeah. The ROI of adding new players is low when the coaches are bad. These guys could get 3-4 good players added and still struggle as coaches. We'd likely just start beating the worst teams...which we can't do now other than 1-12 Jax.

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-16-2020, 03:26 PM)THE PISTONS Wrote: No more extravagent free agent dinner trips to Wendy's in person. They'll have to do take-out.

Mike's a Burger King kind of guy.  Best bang for the buck (shittiest/cheapest).

[THE PISTONS]

(12-16-2020, 03:49 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Mike's a Burger King kind of guy.  Best bang for the buck (shittiest/cheapest).

I legit read somewhere a while back that they took a free agent to Wendy's on a visit. I think it was Wendy's IIRC.

[jj22]

The low airfare may get them a plane ticket now. They won't get the private jet, or the first class seat treatment FA's get elsewhere, but it's something this covid era may help with.