What do we do if Sewell is gone at 3?

[Bengalstripes9]

(12-21-2020, 01:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Mine as well

There's so much that can and (usually) will happen between now and the end of April. There very well could be 5 or even 6 1st round QB's selected and the will change everything. Look at all the aging QB's who's time is quickly coming to an end, Brady, Brees, Newton, Ryan, Stafford, Rivers, Pig Ben. I'd venture to say 1 or more of those teams may be shuffling for position.

The Bengals have to address their lines, period. To be able to get back in the hunt we have to fix the trenches. We probably need at least two quality starters on both lines. And we need to enhance the backups. 

Our interior Oline is among the worst in the league, we have to fix it. I'm leaning harder and harder every day towards trading back and taking the biggest haul we can get.

If there’s a legit guard that we know will be available at pick 9 or so, maybe a trade down is a good option as you say. I get nervous picking in that range as we’ve botched so many picks in the past. We’re in a great position to add an elite defensive playmaker/edge rusher that could be the missing piece on defense. You need to take advantage of that position when you’re in it. I’d rather sign a free agent guard, but wouldn’t be against this strategy if we actually hit on the picks.

[*Nately120*]

First thing to do if we miss out on Sewell is say that his opting out of 2020 shows that he doesn't have what it takes to keep up with the new Burrow culture of giving 150%.

[*ochocincos*]

(12-21-2020, 03:30 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: If there’s a legit guard that we know will be available at pick 9 or so, maybe a trade down is a good option as you say. I get nervous picking in that range as we’ve botched so many picks in the past. We’re in a great position to add an elite defensive playmaker/edge rusher that could be the missing piece on defense. You need to take advantage of that position when you’re in it. I’d rather sign a free agent guard, but wouldn’t be against this strategy if we actually hit on the picks.

The top-rated defensive player in the draft right now is Patrick Surtain, CB Alabama. Micah Parsons, LB Penn St, is also close, but the Bengals don't value LB like that. There isn't a clear-cut pass rusher who stands out above the rest at this point, so probably not worth taking a pass rusher 3rd overall.

Would you be ok with the Bengals taking Surtain?

[Goalpost]

I have little faith in trading down because I have little faith in the Bengals. Take a Wr or Pitts at 3, then come back and take Trey Smith in round 2.
For those who say don't take Pitts that high, I've now seen him listed 5 overall on some boards. Pitts is a scorer and fills a red zone need.

[XenoMorph]

well considering sewell will be our 3rd cant miss LT in the last 7 years or so... id trade back for a guy thats proven in the league. (like when we traded back and got glenn) it might not work out in the long run but burrow is here now and we need an OL to protect him now not one that might develop in the next 3-5 years.

if hes gone at 3.... and you dont have the option to trade back..... Then you take BPA probly a Defensive Linemen (considering who we are losing this year it might be a bigger need than OL)

[Luvnit2]

(12-21-2020, 04:21 PM)Goalpost Wrote: I have little faith in trading down because I have little faith in the Bengals.  Take a Wr or Pitts at 3, then come back and take Trey Smith in round 2.
For those who say don't take Pitts that high, I've now seen him listed 5 overall on some boards.  Pitts is a scorer and fills a red zone need.

I like Pitts, but he can't play TE in the NFL at 239 lbs., he tries and he will be injured and unavailable more often than he plays. Can he block a DE or edge rusher? My guess is no way.

If he can add 20 lbs/ and not lose speed or athleticism, then yes, but a big maybe for 3rd overall pick in my opinion.

So, if Sewell is gone, I try and get a haul to move back 5 to 7 spots or go with Chase at WR.

If a trade back, if Leatherwood the OT from Bama is available, he is my pick and possibly at #3 if we don't get Sewell.

[Bengalstripes9]

(12-21-2020, 04:15 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The top-rated defensive player in the draft right now is Patrick Surtain, CB Alabama. Micah Parsons, LB Penn St, is also close, but the Bengals don't value LB like that. There isn't a clear-cut pass rusher who stands out above the rest at this point, so probably not worth taking a pass rusher 3rd overall.

Would you be ok with the Bengals taking Surtain?

I'd be okay with the Bengals taking Surtain if he's a Denzel Ward type player. 

If we traded down a few spots to grab a pass rusher, I'd welcome that as well. But I'd be fine just drafting one if there's someone rising up the boards. For a premium position, other teams are willing to take a chance and draft a guy higher than he's slotted to go. If we trade down, we could certainly miss out. But maybe we still have a chance at another player that falls. So if the right trade is there for the taking, might be a good move.

Drafting a WR like Chase would be nice, but it wouldn't move the needle as much as investing in our defense or offensive line. We can have all the outside players in the world, but if we aren't good up front it won't matter much.

We have had tons of success drafting wideouts in the mid rounds. 
For the defensive line: We did hit on Geno in the 4th and Dunlap in the 2nd--but outside of those two, we've struggled mightily to replicate that success. I'd be more comfortable using high draft picks to invest in the pass rush. We're not likely to spend a ton of money in FA on the pass rush. Drafting these players high in the draft allows us to retain them for 4-5 years. I'd go this route. There are plenty of success stories to chose from around the league that warrant this approach.

[Jpoore]

Same thing we should do if Sewell is there. Trade back.

[Hammerstripes]

There are 2 elite prospects in this draft - Sewell and Lawrence.

If both are gone, you have to hope that a QB needy team is picking 4th, because that will make the 3rd pick the most valuable pick on the board other than the #1 overall.

There's no way to take Pitts or Chase at #3. I'm not sold on Chase as the clear cut #1 overall WR in this draft. Pitts could be a great receiving TE, but offers nothing as a blocker. Either pick would be a typical Bengal move.

I'd say if Fields is on the board, then we should be able to get quite a bit for that pick.

[Bengalstripes9]

(12-21-2020, 06:01 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I like Pitts, but he can't play TE in the NFL at 239 lbs., he tries and he will be injured and unavailable more often than he plays. Can he block a DE or edge rusher? My guess is no way.

If he can add 20 lbs/ and not lose speed or athleticism, then yes, but a big maybe for 3rd overall pick in my opinion.

So, if Sewell is gone, I try and get a haul to move back 5 to 7 spots or go with Chase at WR.

If a trade back, if Leatherwood the OT from Bama is available, he is my pick and possibly at #3 if we don't get Sewell.

Yeah, I think we tried and failed at drafting durable, productive TEs enough in the past. Other teams have had plenty of success drafting extremely productive TEs in the 2nd/3rd round. 

Honestly, I don't understand why so many are down on Uzo. He was doing quite well connecting with Burrow early in the season before the injury. I'm much more concerned with the offensive and defensive lines. 

If WJ3 walks, we suddenly need a corner as well. Picking Surtain would certainly be nice, but we would look very similar to what we did this year on defense--albeit with an upgrade at corner number 1 (and potentially the shut down type).

[Hammerstripes]

(12-21-2020, 05:47 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: well considering sewell will be our 3rd cant miss LT in the last 7 years or so...  id trade back for a guy thats proven in the league.   (like when we traded back and got glenn)     it might not work out in the long run but burrow is here now and we need an OL to protect him now not one that might develop in the next 3-5 years.

if hes gone at 3.... and you dont have the option to trade back..... Then you take BPA  probly a Defensive Linemen (considering who we are losing this year it might be a bigger need than OL)

If you're "stuck at 3" then you have a real problem.  There's not a true clear cut guy at that point.  I would think worst case you can get something to slide back to the back end of the top 10.

[Whatever]

(12-21-2020, 06:21 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I'd be okay with the Bengals taking Surtain if he's a Denzel Ward type player. 

If we traded down a few spots to grab a pass rusher, I'd welcome that as well. But I'd be fine just drafting one if there's someone rising up the boards. For a premium position, other teams are willing to take a chance and draft a guy higher than he's slotted to go. If we trade down, we could certainly miss out. But maybe we still have a chance at another player that falls. So if the right trade is there for the taking, might be a good move.

Drafting a WR like Chase would be nice, but it wouldn't move the needle as much as investing in our defense or offensive line. We can have all the outside players in the world, but if we aren't good up front it won't matter much.

We have had tons of success drafting wideouts in the mid rounds. 
For the defensive line: We did hit on Geno in the 4th and Dunlap in the 2nd--but outside of those two, we've struggled mightily to replicate that success. I'd be more comfortable using high draft picks to invest in the pass rush. We're not likely to spend a ton of money in FA on the pass rush. Drafting these players high in the draft allows us to retain them for 4-5 years. I'd go this route. There are plenty of success stories to chose from around the league that warrant this approach.

The last starting caliber WR's the Bengals have gotten in the mid rounds were Sanu and Jones back in 2012.  They've drafted mid round DL starters in Billings, Lawson, and Hubbard all more recently than that. 

[Bengalstripes9]

(12-21-2020, 06:21 PM)Jpoore Wrote: Same thing we should do if Sewell is there. Trade back.

(12-21-2020, 06:28 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: If you're "stuck at 3" then you have a real problem.  There's not a true clear cut guy at that point.  I would think worst case you can get something to slide back to the back end of the top 10.

Problem is, we have a poor track record of drafting around pick 8-13 in the draft. This is the major reason I'd be against it; I have little faith we make the right selection.

Moving down a few spots would be a little better in my opinion, as we would still get a shot that 2nd tier group of players outside Sewell and Lawrence. 

However, if you're in position to take the best player on your board, why not just take him? If Surtain is that guy, it would be nice to not have to think about the corner position for the next 4-5 years.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-20-2020, 06:26 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: Who would you target? Would you trade down? What would you do?

If Sewell is the top prospect in the draft, it’s wishful thinking he falls to 3–especially considering it looks like there’s only one QB worth taking before him.

Thoughts?

For me, it goes:

1.) Trade back and try to acquire an additional 2nd round pick.  We still need a first round OT and there will be several available.  I am not sure if any of them are more viable at RT, but that would prevent Jonah from having to move and if we got an additional 2nd round pick, we could get a DT and CB should WJIII be gone.  

2.) If there isn't a great option to trade back, I take Ja'Marr Chase.  I think he is a complete WR with elite speed.  I like his "NFL Body" a bit more than the wiry DeVonta Smith.  He's Burrow's former teammate and would give the Bengals a solid starting 3 at WR.  I would still go another WR in the fourth round as they need more quality depth and speed at the position.  

[Bengalstripes9]

(12-21-2020, 06:34 PM)Whatever Wrote: The last starting caliber WR's the Bengals have gotten in the mid rounds were Sanu and Jones back in 2012.  They've drafted mid round DL starters in Billings, Lawson, and Hubbard all more recently than that. 

True, I don't know why I spaced on Lawson and Hubbard. Hubbard is solid, but he isn't an elite pass rusher. Lawson is definitely solid and disruptive, and was only a 4th round pick. He did fall for a reason though, and he ended up missing significant time in his short career so far. 

I'd still feel much more comfortable investing high picks in the defensive line, as so many teams have had success doing so.

Most of our success at receiver is in the 2nd round over the years. Again, I just feel better about using 2nd round picks or later at this position group because of the type of Quarterback we have--and because the strategy of using high picks on the offensive and defensive lines is just superior. Case in point is how we have had talented skill positions over the last several years, yet we still can't win a damn game because we're terrible up front. Also, look at the Steelers draft strategy, the 9ers draft strategy, etc.

[SunsetBengal]

I've seen some, and at least one on here saying that if the Bengals miss out on Sewell, perhaps they should target Leatherwood at either 35, and in one instance.. 3

I can't buy into the Leatherwood hype. I seen several plays in the SECCG that made me question why so many would have him rated so high. Sure, he had some good plays, but he also got beaten a fair number of times and had moments of looking less than dominate in run blocking as well.

So, I took a little time and looked at where he was on 8 different big boards.

CBS 45th OA 11th OL (they didn't distinguish G or T)
TDN 41st OA 7th T 13th OL
PFN 7 OA 2nd T 2nd OL
ESPN 10th OA 2nd T 2nd OL
Draftek 15th OA 2nd T 2nd OL
Tankathon 23rd OA 4th T 6th OL
Sporting News 8 OA 2nd T @nd OL
Walter 4th T (His board wouldn't load, filled with ads, best I could get from several attempts)

The point of this exercise was to point out that I feel like some of the "Draft Gurus" might be lazy, and just go off of brand name. All have Sewell as unanimous Top OL and all but one in top 3 OA. However, I feel like the Bengals should possibly stay away from 'Bama OL. Twice now, they have taken a 'Bama T with a high pick, both times the player was damaged goods and took much longer than expected to pan out.

I have an opinion as to why. I think that maybe the 'Bama OL just beat themselves to death while playing in college, and have worn their bodies out by the time they reach the NFL. I have no studies to support that, just my opinion.

[Hammerstripes]

(12-21-2020, 06:35 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: For me, it goes:

1.) Trade back and try to acquire an additional 2nd round pick.  We still need a first round OT and there will be several available.  I am not sure if any of them are more viable at RT, but that would prevent Jonah from having to move and if we got an additional 2nd round pick, we could get a DT and CB should WJIII be gone.  

2.) If there isn't a great option to trade back, I take Ja'Marr Chase.  I think he is a complete WR with elite speed.  I like his "NFL Body" a bit more than the wiry DeVonta Smith.  He's Burrow's former teammate and would give the Bengals a solid starting 3 at WR.  I would still go another WR in the fourth round as they need more quality depth and speed at the position.  

Maybe that's why I'm not as high on him as you are, I expect him to run in the 4.5 range.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-21-2020, 07:55 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Maybe that's why I'm not as high on him as you are, I expect him to run in the 4.5 range.

And 4.5 is plenty fast for a talented WR.  4.5 is exactly what AJ Green ran, and I can't ever remember him getting caught from behind when he was in full stride.  However, I'm really against the team taking ANY non OL or DL player with their top pick this year.  This team needs the lines built up, before they start buying flashy toys.

[Luvnit2]

(12-21-2020, 07:54 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I've seen some, and at least one on here saying that if the Bengals miss out on Sewell, perhaps they should target Leatherwood at either 35, and in one instance.. 3

I can't buy into the Leatherwood hype.  I seen several plays in the SECCG that made me question why so many would have him rated so high.  Sure, he had some good plays, but he also got beaten a fair number of times and had moments of looking less than dominate in run blocking as well.

So, I took a little time and looked at where he was on 8 different big boards.

CBS  45th OA   11th OL  (they didn't distinguish G or T)
TDN  41st  OA   7th T  13th OL
PFN   7 OA        2nd T  2nd OL
ESPN  10th OA   2nd T  2nd OL
Draftek  15th OA  2nd T  2nd OL
Tankathon  23rd OA  4th T  6th OL
Sporting News  8 OA  2nd T  @nd OL
Walter                      4th T  (His board wouldn't load, filled with ads, best I could get from several attempts)

The point of this exercise was to point out that I feel like some of the "Draft Gurus" might be lazy, and just go off of brand name.  All have Sewell as unanimous Top OL and all but one in top 3 OA.  However, I feel like the Bengals should possibly stay away from 'Bama OL.  Twice now, they have taken a 'Bama T with a high pick, both times the player was damaged goods and took much longer than expected to pan out.

I have an opinion as to why.  I think that maybe the 'Bama OL just beat themselves to death while playing in college, and have worn their bodies out by the time they reach the NFL.  I have no studies to support that, just my opinion.

I think you indirectly pointed out the issue with any top 10 pick. It is rare to find 10 guys who land consistently in top 10 overall predictions. It is more rare (I think due to QB's being over drafted in round one and early) to find same 5 guys predicted.

As for Leatherwood or other OL, long way to go until draft. I said possibly 3, so don't twist it. I want to watch him play ND and then OSU or Clemson winner. We will all learn a lot about him, more than we will about the others projected to go in round 1 including Sewell. I still would draft Sewell, but drafts are always a crap shoot.

A ;pt of these drafts pick where they think they will be drafted, not a true #1 overall, then #2 overall based on talent, but more based on position. If talent, the Penn State LB may be as good as Lawrence, he just plays defense versus the elite QB position which is paid much higher after rookie contracts. So I think teams look at 2 things when drafted, talent and cap savings by replacing an expensive vet or potential expensive vet with a rookie stud.

[SunsetBengal]

(12-21-2020, 08:15 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: I think you indirectly pointed out the issue with any top 10 pick. It is rare to find 10 guys who land consistently in top 10 overall predictions. It is more rare (I think due to QB's being over drafted in round one and early) to find same 5 guys predicted.

As for Leatherwood or other OL, long way to go until draft. I said possibly 3, so don't twist it. I want to watch him play ND and then OSU or Clemson winner. We will all learn a lot about him, more than we will about the others projected to go in round 1 including Sewell. I still would draft Sewell, but drafts are always a crap shoot.

A ;pt of these drafts pick where they think they will be drafted, not a true #1 overall, then #2 overall based on talent, but more based on position. If talent, the Penn State LB may be as good as Lawrence, he just plays defense versus the elite QB position which is paid much higher after rookie contracts. So I think teams look at 2 things when drafted, talent and cap savings by replacing an expensive vet or potential expensive vet with a rookie stud.

I think that these draft boards are all over the place, for a variety of reasons, the biggest likely being bias.  Some of these "judges of talent" are biased toward stats, others toward perceived level of competition, some toward regional exposure, some from cash (as in here's X amount of $$, promote my guys).  I think it very few of these talent evaluation services that actually get it right, according to the actual skills of the player, and his likelihood of success at the professional level.  That is why we see late round, even undrafted players rise to stardom coming from "unknown" status level.  Now, on their behalf, they can't predict who will be selected and cast in a scheme or system that requires a different skill set than they possess (see Bengals repeatedly).  

All too often talent is misjudged because a player played on a successful team, and appeared to be much better because he was surrounded by a collection of highly talented players.  All of these draft boards are just popularity polls for money.  The only ones who's opinions really matter, are actual professional scouts who's very livelihoods depend on their evaluations being correct.  This is where the Bengals fail in a major way.  They skimp on scouting, ask the coaches to pull double duty, when it's virtually impossible to be a precise evaluator while your attention is so deeply divided.