Black monday is coming

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-28-2020, 03:28 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I agree it's a short list, but it's still a tier above playoff capable.

Sure, I was just trying to think who’d actually be in said tier.

[masterpanthera_t]

(12-28-2020, 11:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: I am curious what people thought were realistic expectations for win totals this year when they thought we'd have Burrow the whole season along with Waynes/Reader/Atkins/Dunlap/etc.? Just for a second assuming we win this week and end at 5 wins, how far off were we from what you expected? That is remembering we were a bad PI call from another win.

I don't think Taylor is some sort of coaching savant or anything, but I had them as a 6-7 win team coming into the season WITH Burrow/Reader/Waynes/Atkins/Dunlap/etc. so I think they performed about as I had thought they would. Now that said I expect a winning season next year as that is the normal progression and if we don't hit it then it'll be time to move on.

I'm not sure I had them as a six win team because I was skeptical until I actually see it, but I did say on record in the offseason that I would consider it an improvement if they win six games due to little off-season practice time, rookie qb etc.  However,  this was before seeing how pathetic the NFC east had been as a division and I think that it should add a game or two to my expectations. Still, if they win next week they finish on a three game winning streak with wins against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. And that's without JB. If that happens,  I may begrudgingly be fine with Taylor getting another year, but still extremely leery of dead cat bounce and almost expecting next year to be a letdown. Especially if Taylor and turner think the OLine is fixed as is. Or by adding just one player. Because,  like it or not every year it seems the Bengals have injury issues. But they're not alone in that aspect. The good teams find a way to tread water, but the Bengals seem to nosedive.  For that I blame the coaching and depth. Which are interconnected.  Along with the FO.

[masterpanthera_t]

(12-28-2020, 11:19 AM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: So which is it? Does momentum carry over or not? Does it only carry over if you win a specific amount of games? If you win your last 3 does it not carry over, but 4 it does? If your going to make an argument, don't make it circumstantial based on if you like a coach or not. That gives 0 credibility to your argument. 

I think it depends on the circumstances. In Flores' case,  he took a 7 win team,  completely ripped up its guts, to the point that they were considered worse than some college teams early in 2019 (I know it was a bit of hyperbole), and after starting 0-8,I believe went 5-3, and the NFL brass publicly talked about how they were improving. And this year they've continued where they've left off. 

In Taylor's case he took a 6 win team,  didn't make many changes,  and ended up with a 2 win team. He dealt with injuries,  but not enough to drop 4 wins. While their offensive line did run block better in the last half,  I'm not sure the rest of the team improved a lot. But I could be wrong. But the most glaring issue is that the team didn't continue from any improvements made at the end of last year. The OLine clearly was worse by a lot, in the first ten plus games of 2020 compared to the last half of 2019. In fact it looked like the rookie qb was the only thing keeping the team worth watching. Now suddenly winning games in week 15 and 16 doesn't change the narrative for me.  For one the sample size is not large enough for me to think any drastic improvement occurred in the coaching. I could argue it's just coincidence or good luck. 

If they win next week,  I might still believe that the sample size is small, but begrudgingly say that Zac deserves a third year (is mostly me saying there's a chance he's improved,  rather than being sure he's improved). That's mostly because we're playing the Ravens who will be absolutely focused on next week's game playing to get into the playoffs. If we win with BA at qb, it would be difficult forme to deny Zac a chance next year.  But I'll still think he's overmatched until he proves us wrong next year. 

[TheFan]

(12-28-2020, 11:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: I am curious what people thought were realistic expectations for win totals this year when they thought we'd have Burrow the whole season along with Waynes/Reader/Atkins/Dunlap/etc.? Just for a second assuming we win this week and end at 5 wins, how far off were we from what you expected? That is remembering we were a bad PI call from another win.

I don't think Taylor is some sort of coaching savant or anything, but I had them as a 6-7 win team coming into the season WITH Burrow/Reader/Waynes/Atkins/Dunlap/etc. so I think they performed about as I had thought they would. Now that said I expect a winning season next year as that is the normal progression and if we don't hit it then it'll be time to move on.

I think part of the reason people had low expectations was because of Taylor though and what he showed regarding his Head Coaching prowess last year. 

[masterpanthera_t]

(12-28-2020, 03:30 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Sure, I was just trying to think who’d actually be in said tier.

I could argue that McVay and McDermott are almost at the perennial contender level.  Or perhaps higher than just playoff capable and slightly lower than perennial contender. McDermott had the rest of the team properly coached,  and now that he has a QB (in assuming he doesn't regress), will be a perennial contender. Even though it's only a sample size of three or four years. McVay may not make the playoffs this year,  but I still think he qualifies because the Rams will finish with a winning season (I don't believe Rams have ever not had a winning season under him) and he did take his team to the super bowl just two years ago. There might be a couple injuries here and there that keeps them from winning their division but they're always in the mix.

But either way these guys are very close if not already there. 

[Joelist]

At bare minimum Turner needs to be fired. Not only is his judgment on who to play suspect but if he does teach technique it is bad technique. He hasn't actually developed any linemen; in fact the ones drafted that were more raw (Jordan for example) have actually regressed under his tutelage. The ones playing better all came here AFTER being coached up elsewhere (XSF, Spain, Jordan Williams in college in a pro system).

We need a line coach who actually knows the OL game (schemes and technique) and if necessary a special assistant to teach technique. I'd like to see Big Willie as the line coach and Anthony Munoz or Joe Walter as the teacher of technique.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(12-28-2020, 08:19 PM)masterpanthera_t Wrote: I could argue that McVay and McDermott are almost at the perennial contender level.  Or perhaps higher than just playoff capable and slightly lower than perennial contender. McDermott had the rest of the team properly coached,  and now that he has a QB (in assuming he doesn't regress), will be a perennial contender. Even though it's only a sample size of three or four years. McVay may not make the playoffs this year,  but I still think he qualifies because the Rams will finish with a winning season (I don't believe Rams have ever not had a winning season under him) and he did take his team to the super bowl just two years ago. There might be a couple injuries here and there that keeps them from winning their division but they're always in the mix.

But either way these guys are very close if not already there. 

Yeah, I actually thought about listing both of them. I think Shanahan is a hell of a coach, too. If he gets a QB look out.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-28-2020, 11:42 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: When winning hurts the bottom line yes..

Its good for the coaches if they learn from what they did here.... So far from year 1 to 2 we see some flashes but no consistancy.  but the roster will look different. maybe the coaching staff....


So who is the momentum for the fanbase? or is winning these last few games gonna make them draft better in the offseason?

I'm happy with 2020 draft hope as a whole they draft that way in 2021

[masterpanthera_t]

(12-28-2020, 09:53 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yeah, I actually thought about listing both of them. I think Shanahan is a hell of a coach, too. If he gets a QB look out.

I'd personally put him there,  but didn't because that argument's a little less easy to make compared to the first two,  only because niners have had a couple bad seasons under him.  With good reasons,  but still. Although he did just have a SB appearance last year.  And one with Atlanta as an OC.

[CanadianBengal]

(12-28-2020, 11:44 AM)Rubekahn29 Wrote: Agreed. We can either moan and complain about the winning and be miserable because ZT isn't going anywhere and we missed out on Sewell (which looks more likely he will go at 2 anyway), or just enjoy it and save the moaning and complaining for next year. 

There's the dead cat bounce and then there is beating 2 of the top teams in the AFC in your last three. I see a pretty big difference between last years finish against the imploding Browns, vs this year ESPECIALLY if we beat Bmore (still a long shot). I'm not a ZT believer, but I'm going to enjoy this while it lasts. 

Fans may want the Bengals to lose for a draft position but there is no way the players or coaches want to lose for the cause. On Sunday, the players who are dressed will play to win for their jobs as will the coaches. Management can choose to keep Mixon, Boyd and Waynes from returning from injured list but that clearly has not caused this team to quit. 

I want ZT gone but I also want the players on this team to care and try their best every Sunday. Most of these players will be back next year. We want them to have professional pride. 

Houston quit --Jax has quit. Both will get better picks but I would rather the Bengals players care right to the end about doing their best even if it means a later draft course. I cannot imagine a better year next year if the players play for a draft choice or a coaching change.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(12-28-2020, 06:33 PM)masterpanthera_t Wrote: I think it depends on the circumstances. In Flores' case,  he took a 7 win team,  completely ripped up its guts, to the point that they were considered worse than some college teams early in 2019 (I know it was a bit of hyperbole), and after starting 0-8,I believe went 5-3, and the NFL brass publicly talked about how they were improving. And this year they've continued where they've left off. 

In Taylor's case he took a 6 win team,  didn't make many changes,  and ended up with a 2 win team. He dealt with injuries,  but not enough to drop 4 wins. While their offensive line did run block better in the last half,  I'm not sure the rest of the team improved a lot. But I could be wrong. But the most glaring issue is that the team didn't continue from any improvements made at the end of last year. The OLine clearly was worse by a lot, in the first ten plus games of 2020 compared to the last half of 2019. In fact it looked like the rookie qb was the only thing keeping the team worth watching. Now suddenly winning games in week 15 and 16 doesn't change the narrative for me.  For one the sample size is not large enough for me to think any drastic improvement occurred in the coaching. I could argue it's just coincidence or good luck. 

If they win next week,  I might still believe that the sample size is small, but begrudgingly say that Zac deserves a third year (is mostly me saying there's a chance he's improved,  rather than being sure he's improved). That's mostly because we're playing the Ravens who will be absolutely focused on next week's game playing to get into the playoffs. If we win with BA at qb, it would be difficult forme to deny Zac a chance next year.  But I'll still think he's overmatched until he proves us wrong next year. 

Part of the circumstances is also that Taylor got this job a couple of years too early.

Even if he was this great offensive mind, by rights he shouldn't really be getting HC interviews until about now (if he hadn't have got the Bengals job he'd maybe be two years into an OC job). You compare him to Flores but part of that comparison should also be that he's 2 years younger than Flores. The learning curve for any first time HC must be very steep. For him it must be extraordinary. However the Browns and Blackburns and Tobin were very aware of this and so this will factor into their decision to keep him.

He's the coaching equivalent of a 20 year old going up against 22 year olds in college. If they can nearly hold their own at that age against older, more experienced rivals you hope that with a couple more years maturity they can develop into a dominant force. Sometimes they do (Jessie Bates), sometimes they don't (Michael Jordan).

The Bengals know that they wouldn't have got Jessie Bates with the 54th pick if he'd come out last year instead but having got him in early (and cheaper) they are in prime position to secure him long term. At the moment I'd say Zac is more Jordan than Bates but whilst I'd expect them to both be better in 2021 than 2020 I feel more optimism for Zac than Jordan.

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-28-2020, 10:12 AM)Bigcatfan Wrote: Well it's the end of the season, just one more game to get through, and its going to be a rivalry game against the Ravens. Ravens need this win to make it in the playoffs, we could win and be spoilers for them. Any win is good, but when it comes to knocking out other divisional teams out of the playoffs its a great thing. Then comes the dreaded firing day for many coaches. Is there any expected coaches exiting the facilities after the season wraps up?

First of all, welcome to the boards....

Second, I have no idea what coaches are on the hot seat that could be candidates to come to Cincy.  I have seen Zimmer's name thrown out there as DC for a lame-duck ZT, but I don't like that idea at all.  No disrespect to Zim, but I feel like that would be a no-win situation for ZT and, ultimately, Burrow.

Lastly, I think the Bengals had a damn good chance of beating the ratbirds until WJIII left the Texans game with a concussion.  I can't see him playing Sunday, and with LeShawn "my guy is always open" Sims out there, it won't be much of a contest.  I wish the Bengals would give Winston Rose a shot.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-28-2020, 11:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: I am curious what people thought were realistic expectations for win totals this year when they thought we'd have Burrow the whole season along with Waynes/Reader/Atkins/Dunlap/etc.? Just for a second assuming we win this week and end at 5 wins, how far off were we from what you expected? That is remembering we were a bad PI call from another win.

I don't think Taylor is some sort of coaching savant or anything, but I had them as a 6-7 win team coming into the season WITH Burrow/Reader/Waynes/Atkins/Dunlap/etc. so I think they performed about as I had thought they would. Now that said I expect a winning season next year as that is the normal progression and if we don't hit it then it'll be time to move on.

This is the rational approach.  I don't see how ZT and Lou aren't back next year, and maybe a defensive line and offensive line coach are the sacrificial lambs.  I never liked Turner.  So odd how a coach that preaches culture and communication hires such an assbag.  I guess it is the family ties.  If you get rid of Lou, you will have a very thin selection pool at DC because that position will still be under ZT.  If ZT is fired after year three, then the new coach will want his own staff.  Just keep them together for year three.  If they aren't above 8 wins next year, buh-bye.

Now, that being said, and I am trying to be rational about keeping ZT and Taylor (as one of the very few that didn't vote to fire ZT on a poll earlier in the year and was crucified for it), I have this nagging feeling of spontaneous WTF moments throughout the season.  

How do they never screen when the Browns, Eagles, and Ratbirds were all teeing off on Burrow?  They kept calling play after play downfield and Burrow was getting pounded.  Even my 87 year old father was yelling at the TV (something he never does):  "Throw a damn screen!".  Then, they finally do it in the second Browns game and it works incredibly well.  Did they not practice those plays leading in to a game with a really good pass rush?  Did they lose that page of the playbook?

They keep running AJ Green out there when he is a walking incompletion/interception for the other team.  Yes, he was historically great.  But now he is historically bad.  Ross had a ball hit him on the hip (because he wasn't ready for it) and we sat him the rest of the year.  AJ just keeps rolling out there, almost like playing with 10 guys against 11.  

The rushing attack?  What rushing attack?  We just spent $12 million on a RB and we abandon the run after one drive?  Our offensive line coach is apparently only capable of teaching run blocking and we choose to throw the ball 61 times? 

Why is LeShawn Sims on the field, ever?  

There are many more.  Things that defy logic.  Of course, when a reporter asks a question about such a subject, they get scoffed at by the coach in the classic "you don't know what we know" attitude.  I know most coaches at all levels are raging egomaniacs, but what the HELL do you have to be arrogant about?  The fact that you rode coat tails to a Super Bowl (where your offense looked pathetic)?  Regardless, I think it works best for the team to get rid of Turner, but give Lou and ZT one more year.  If it doesn't click next year, wipe the slate clean and bring in a whole new staff.  

[Sled21]

(12-28-2020, 11:00 AM)bengaloo Wrote: I dont think any coaches will be getting canned, but I would like to see Turner go at the very minimum. His musical chairs OL is frustrating. 

Not to defend Turner, because I think it will be him and Eason who are let go, but the musical chairs O line is not his fault, and is actually a defense for him. While trying to get 5 guys to play together, he has had to deal with the constant changes due to injuries. Any coach would have had to deal with the same thing this season, as who gets injured is not up to the coach.

[swampdrain]

Bicknell told he is not being retained

[Sled21]

(12-29-2020, 02:09 PM)swampdrain Wrote: Bicknell told he is not being retained

WR coach? That's surprising after the way Higgins developed.
Source?

[masterpanthera_t]

(12-29-2020, 12:24 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Part of the circumstances is also that Taylor got this job a couple of years too early.

Even if he was this great offensive mind, by rights he shouldn't really be getting HC interviews until about now (if he hadn't have got the Bengals job he'd maybe be two years into an OC job). You compare him to Flores but part of that comparison should also be that he's 2 years younger than Flores. The learning curve for any first time HC must be very steep. For him it must be extraordinary. However the Browns and Blackburns and Tobin were very aware of this and so this will factor into their decision to keep him.

He's the coaching equivalent of a 20 year old going up against 22 year olds in college. If they can nearly hold their own at that age against older, more experienced rivals you hope that with a couple more years maturity they can develop into a dominant force. Sometimes they do (Jessie Bates), sometimes they don't (Michael Jordan).

The Bengals know that they wouldn't have got Jessie Bates with the 54th pick if he'd come out last year instead but having got him in early (and cheaper) they are in prime position to secure him long term. At the moment I'd say Zac is more Jordan than Bates but whilst I'd expect them to both be better in 2021 than 2020 I feel more optimism for Zac than Jordan.

I am heavily leaning towards Zac is more Jordan than Bates, and happy to be proven wrong next year. If we can beat every team in the division at least once next year, then I'll believe he has improved. Otherwise,  the circumstances better be extenuating or I will want his firing. 

[HarleyDog]

(12-29-2020, 02:09 PM)swampdrain Wrote: Bicknell told he is not being retained

Not seeing it. What’s the source?

[Murdock2420]

(12-29-2020, 02:21 PM)Sled21 Wrote: WR coach? That's surprising after the way Higgins developed.
Source?

(12-29-2020, 11:30 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Not seeing it. What’s the source?

I've searched everything, only thing about him is that he was going to miss a game with Covid and there is  a piece on Bengals.com about him wanting Higgins after Buffalo had passed on him in the draft.

[Bengal Dude]

After listening to HTPG today, it's sounding like Turner will be gone. They're putting Lou's odds at 50/50 as of right now at being retained.