I Would Not Look for Big Money LONG Term Deals in FA

[Wes Mantooth]

I hope I titled this correctly, as it probably reads a little strangely. My point is not that that we can't expect players who earn a higher average of salary, my point is that we probably won't see higher average of salary coupled with a long term deal (4 years or more).

Example: A 5 year 70 million dollars, not a 2 year 25 million dollar deal.

Basically, I would not look for the type of contract we paid out to DJ Reader this offseason. This may be preclude us from certain top tier players like Thurney.

Now, you may be asking why at this point. Why not?

The answer is mainly because of Joe Burrow, with the disappointing results of Readers and Waynes sprinkled in.

People are correct when they say we control Joe Burrow's rights for 4 more season (4 year + 5th year option). But people need to understand that there is very HIGH probability that we give Joe an extension after year 3.

This is what often happens with QB's you sold on. (See Patrick Mahomes) This allows you to potentially secure a discount by paying out and giving security early, and it also allows you to spread out the signing bonus across an extra season. (It saves you money)

A 5th year option has to be picked up after the 3rd season, a full year offseason in advance. When this happens you can find yourself in the mess that was Dak Prescott and Dallas for the last 2 years. You'll have immense pressure to get an extension done throughout year 4 because the last thing either person wants is a franchise QB playing on a 5th year option.

Remember, this a team that started a "fund" for Andy after one completely mediocre year 1. They were already sold, so much so that they started stockpiling future cap space to insure they could extend him. What do you think they feel about Joe Burrow if they were that sold on Dalton?

I don't think this team is going to want to commit to big salaries that are due in 2023 and 2024 because, like I said, Joe Burrow may very well be on a new deal by then. His salary will skyrocket once his extension kicks in. And with the the way Reader and Waynes have turned out thus far, I don't think that's going to help matters as far big spending.

I'll wrap it up, as I've probably gone on too long. None of what I've written has to be a bad thing. In fact, there's going to be a lot of really nice prices after you get through the initial spending spree in free agency. I'd look for a lot of quality vets to sign realative bargains on shorter contracts. And I think this is where the Bengals turn their attention.

[*psychdoctor*]

I thought the title was fine. I hope the Bengals sign on "blue Chip" OL in Thurney or such and either Lawson & Wj3. I would expect maybe 3-4 year deals though.

[Yojimbo]

I think we might get one on the Oline, but I’m ok with something like what they did with Waynes last year. While it was a BIG contract it is also only 3 years, now 2.

[Au165]

Don't look for big money deals for pretty much anyone, which in a way resets what is "big money" this free agency period. The cap is rumored to be declining by $20 million next year. As of right now, only 20 teams even project to not be negative at this point. Obviously, cuts will be made and deals will be signed for everyone to get positive, but this off-season will be unlike any other the NFL has seen in decades. I would say you should look for a lot of 1 year deas as players bet on the cap shooting back up next year and having a more lucrative landscape.

The Bengals are actually in a really good situation with that understanding as guys can take a 1 year flyer here and see where it goes as money may be limited in FA as a whole.

[fredtoast]

Based on this years salaries if we do NOT work out an extension for Burrow that fifth year option would cost us about $34 million. (avg salary for top 10 QBs). BY 2024 I am sure that will be way over $40 million.

[XenoMorph]

will burrow be the first to get a % of the cap deal?

[Au165]

(01-11-2021, 05:06 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: will burrow be the first to get a % of the cap deal?

Not sure, but everyone who thought that was a horrible idea looks dumb next year on a year the cap may actually decline lol.

[*ochocincos*]

I would only ever give a 4+ year deal to a proven elite player at a more premium skill position TBH.

[jfkbengals]

(01-11-2021, 05:30 PM)Au165 Wrote: Not sure, but everyone who thought that was a horrible idea looks dumb next year on a year the cap may actually decline lol.

Even prior to 2020, no agent would ever let their guy sign a percentage deal without language that it cannot go down.

[Whatever]

(01-11-2021, 03:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: Don't look for big money deals for pretty much anyone, which in a way resets what is "big money" this free agency period. The cap is rumored to be declining by $20 million next year. As of right now, only 20 teams even project to not be negative at this point. Obviously, cuts will be made and deals will be signed for everyone to get positive, but this off-season will be unlike any other the NFL has seen in decades. I would say you should look for a lot of 1 year deas as players bet on the cap shooting back up next year and having a more lucrative landscape.

The Bengals are actually in a really good situation with that understanding as guys can take a 1 year flyer here and see where it goes as money may be limited in FA as a whole.

I think there will mainly be two types of deals struck this off-season.  The top FA's will likely get long term deals because that gives teams more opportunity to drop that first year cap number with higher signing bonuses and lower 1st year salary.  Most of the rest will be on one year deals rather than committing to long term contracts at below market value.

[JWW1971]

We made a big splash on the Defence in FA last year and I think we will do the same with the Offence this season. Not saying it will purely be on the O-Line but I see us bringing in a WR or 2 a TE and an O-Lineman.
We may also go for an Edge and CB depending on how many of our own FA's come back

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

If you don't offer long contracts, you don't get top tier FA.
If you don't get top tier FA, you're not protecting Burrow.
If you're not protecting Burrow, what's the point in planning on his future extension?

Worrying about 2023 and 2024 cap space when you're in the 2020-2021 offseason is how you turn into a loser.

Here's a list of all the players the Bengals have under contract in 2024:
Joe Mixon (who will probably cut to save $12.3m)
Joe Burrow (only if they pick up his 5th year option)

That's it. List over.

.....Refusing to sign premier guys for the 2021 season because of worries about cap space in 2024... goddamn have we Bengals fans been subjected to Mike Brown for too long, or what?

[Wes Mantooth]

(01-11-2021, 08:33 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: If you don't offer long contracts, you don't get top tier FA.
If you don't get top tier FA, you're not protecting Burrow.
If you're not protecting Burrow, what's the point in planning on his future extension?

Worrying about 2023 and 2024 cap space when you're in the 2020-2021 offseason is how you turn into a loser.

Here's a list of all the players the Bengals have under contract in 2024:
Joe Mixon (who will probably cut to save $12.3m)
Joe Burrow (only if they pick up his 5th year option)

That's it. List over.

.....Refusing to sign premier guys for the 2021 season because of worries about cap space in 2024... goddamn have we Bengals fans been subjected to Mike Brown for too long, or what?

Just to be clear, I'm not necessarily calling for this approach, I just think this is what we're likely to see.

I do think you'll be able to sign a legitmate, high-quality starters this year on contracts shorter than what we would normally see.  I think some of these guys are going to let them market reset, and I think guys are going to have accept the reality that teams just aren't going to have as much to spend this free agency period.

Even if the cap doesn't decrease as much as predicted (176 million), it's still going to hurt spending.  I would guess we've seen an average year to year increase in the salary cap of about 5%.  Teams generally budget under the assumption the cap rises, and I think we'll see a lot of teams right up against it, in a world of hurt if it falls short of even what it was set at last year.

I think they can find two quality starters on OL under what I defined.  What they cannot do is just pencil in Hart, Spain, and XSF and act like they're problems are solved.  I just hope they realize this.

What name to look out for, outside of the OL, which I think would be a heckuva signing for them is Hunter Henry.  His market is currently set at around 8-10 mil.  That would be a great target for them, both literally and figuartively.  You add him to this team, maybe take a Jamar Chase at 5, and then fill two spots on OL with 7-10 mil guys then I think you've given yourself a really nice chance at improving this offense. All while leaving a little money to spent elsewhere on the other side of the ball.

[SuperBowlBound!]

(01-11-2021, 09:06 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Just to be clear, I'm not necessarily calling for this approach, I just think this is what we're likely to see.

I do think you'll be able to sign a legitmate, high-quality starters this year on contracts shorter than what we would normally see.  I think some of these guys are going to let them market reset, and I think guys are going to have accept the reality that teams just aren't going to have as much to spend this free agency period.

Even if the cap doesn't decrease as much as predicted (176 million), it's still going to hurt spending.  I would guess we've seen an average year to year increase in the salary cap of about 5%.  Teams generally budget under the assumption the cap rises, and I think we'll see a lot of teams right up against it, in a world of hurt if it falls short of even what it was set at last year.

I think they can find two quality starters on OL under what I defined.  What they cannot do is just pencil in Hart, Spain, and XSF and act like they're problems are solved.  I just hope they realize this.

What name to look out for, outside of the OL, which I think would be a heckuva signing for them is Hunter Henry.  His market is currently set at around 8-10 mil.  That would be a great target for them, both literally and figuartively.  You add him to this team, maybe take a Jamar Chase at 5, and then fill two spots on OL with 7-10 mil guys then I think you've given yourself a really nice chance at improving this offense. All while leaving a little money to spent elsewhere on the other side of the ball.

That sounds great. They have to be willing to come here.
I don't see Hunter Henry leaving the Chargers to come play in Cinti.

[Hammerstripes]

I think you will see the normal deals that you see for the top tier guys. Where the change will be is in the number of teams that can offer those types of deals. If the salary cap settles around $185 million as reported, there are going to be several teams that won't have the luxury of offering mega deals.

The Bengals should be in a good position to sign Lawson, WJ3 and a top tier free agent on the line.

[*michaelsean*]

The Bengals can’t wait to extend Burrow for big money. It’s less work for them to get up past the floor. They are going to be exhausted from last year’s signings for a while.

[CJD]

I understand what you're saying, but we have a lot of money to spend and they could easily front load contracts if they were concerned about Joe's contract extension in 2023.