Would you trade Burrow for Watson

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-15-2021, 03:12 PM)hollodero Wrote: Yeah, I'm not that sold on him yet, from what I've seen. I'm not saying he is bad in any way, just that he still needs some steps to be a superstar at the position - game experience, if you will. He can be great for sure, but again I have an issue with taking this for granted. He has a few games and not everything in those games was excellent, e.g. fumbling issues, holding the ball too long etc.

The protection thing is true for sure, putting our golden boy behind that line is some kind of negligent physical injury. It makes some sense to rather fix that issue first before thinking of the QB position - and go with the cheaper option before it is fixed. This line might as well get Watson down too.

Which btw is why I would rather get Fitzpatrick or someone for one year and let Burrow come back the season after, but stating that is against the OP rules.

Not sure what you've watched on him, specific to his game, but there are a few really good breakdowns on what it is that makes others (some who 'know' and some who are fans like us) think he will be elite. 

Nicomo posted a video recently and while i don't know the guys credentials, the things he cited and the examples he gave were quality. PFF has pointed out that that one part he excells in, intermediate passing game, is the best barometer--from other QB examples--to predict how good a QB can be and even as a rookie he was easily in the top 5. A lot of people poopoo PFF but that wasn't an opinion, it was based off of production. He showed he is able to hit the deep throws in college, so that's not really a part of his game he needs to "improve", as much as it's experience/protection/timing, etc. 

Most people will take anything anyone says with a grain of salt and i don't really have an issue with that, i'd just caution against only judging him on raw stats and how they compare to others. 

[hollodero]

(01-15-2021, 04:52 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Not sure what you've watched on him, specific to his game, but there are a few really good breakdowns on what it is that makes others (some who 'know' and some who are fans like us) think he will be elite. 

Nicomo posted a video recently and while i don't know the guys credentials, the things he cited and the examples he gave were quality. PFF has pointed out that that one part he excells in, intermediate passing game, is the best barometer--from other QB examples--to predict how good a QB can be and even as a rookie he was easily in the top 5. A lot of people poopoo PFF but that wasn't an opinion, it was based off of production. He showed he is able to hit the deep throws in college, so that's not really a part of his game he needs to "improve", as much as it's experience/protection/timing, etc. 

Most people will take anything anyone says with a grain of salt and i don't really have an issue with that, i'd just caution against only judging him on raw stats and how they compare to others. 

I do not necessessarily contradict such opinions or claim these people got it plain wrong. It might very well be that Burrow develops into an elite QB - the kind of QB every team wants. I just would say that it is not a surefire thing that he will. That is the thing I was getting at, that one can't really know, and that not everthing Burrow did was just so extraordinarily good that there can be zero doubt about it. Especially now after he got badly hurt.

With Watson, imho it is a sure thing that he is one of the top players at the position. Burrow might become one in a few years - but when he does, he will demand elite QB money as well. At this point, salary does not play a role any more. That's why I would trade for Watson, it's like having a top QB right now. The idea that Burrow will already play lights out great while still on his cheaper rookie contract, imho, is one I would not build all hopes on.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-15-2021, 05:07 PM)hollodero Wrote: I do not necessessarily contradict such opinions or claim these people got it plain wrong. It might very well be that Burrow develops into an elite QB - the kind of QB every team wants. I just would say that it is not a surefire thing that he will. That is the thing I was getting at, that one can't really know, and that not everthing Burrow did was just so extraordinarily good that there can be zero doubt about it. Especially now after he got badly hurt.

With Watson, imho it is a sure thing that he is one of the top players at the position. Burrow might become one in a few years - but when he does, he will demand elite QB money as well. At this point, salary does not play a role any more. That's why I would trade for Watson, it's like having a top QB right now. The hope that Burrow will already play lights out great while still on his cheaper rookie contract, imho, is one I would not build all hopes on.

*highlighted part comes at the end of the post*


I get what you're saying but i'll stand fast in the belief that there are things that will point to whether a QB will be good to great or average or a bust, if you know where to look. Difference of opinion, no biggie. 

There is no denying that Watson is, right now, a top 5 QB and would instantly, at the very least, keep/put the Bengals where they were in weeks 6-8, if not make them better. 

To the bolded, with the advanced metrics that are out there now and the ever increasing eyes and race to find better predicive indicators, it is possible to more accurately tell whether a guy is going to be very good to anywhere else down the scale. Zero doubt, 100% accurate? No. But nothing in this world is that way. 

[*bfine32*]

Seems like a lot are giving Mikey personnel advice with their heart and hope more so than their head. The good news is that if you get it right, we win; if you get it wrong Mikey won't fire you while you're under contract. But there may be a few "bring back Tobin" threads.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-15-2021, 05:42 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Seems like a lot are giving Mikey personnel advice with their heart and hope more so than their head. The good news is that if you get it right, we win; if you get it wrong Mikey won't fire you while you're under contract. But there may be a few "bring back Tobin" threads.

I ain't worried.

[hollodero]

(01-15-2021, 05:34 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: *highlighted part comes at the end of the post*


I get what you're saying but i'll stand fast in the belief that there are things that will point to whether a QB will be good to great or average or a bust, if you know where to look. Difference of opinion, no biggie. 

There is no denying that Watson is, right now, a top 5 QB and would instantly, at the very least, keep/put the Bengals where they were in weeks 6-8, if not make them better. 

To the bolded, with the advanced metrics that are out there now and the ever increasing eyes and race to find better predicive indicators, it is possible to more accurately tell whether a guy is going to be very good to anywhere else down the scale. Zero doubt, 100% accurate? No. But nothing in this world is that way. 

I believe there are good indicators that Burrow will be great, and that he has a good chance to be. We might see the chances for it happening slightly different, but not too much. I'm just a little less certain about it, based on my own usually less than stellar observation and the somewhat small sample size and his recent grim knee injury.
My whole point is centered around your last statement though. There is always doubt. With Watson, I have less doubt, he's already where we ideally want Burrow to be in two years.

(And I say "in two years", for if it takes him longer than that then we don't benefit from his cheaper rookie contract and would just delay success by keeping him over Watson in this totally surreal scenario)

And I like to be disagreed with.

[*Nately120*]

(01-14-2021, 09:18 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Nah I wouldn't do it. I think Burrow is a much better QB, and he will be on his rookie contract for a bit longer.

It's ok to want to keep Burrow and/or say he could be better in the long run, but he isn't better than Watson at this moment.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-15-2021, 07:56 PM)Nately120 Wrote: It's ok to want to keep Burrow and/or say he could be better in the long run, but he isn't better than Watson at this moment.

I thought that was a foregone conclusion. 

[QueenCity]

I saw this thread a few days ago and I swore I wasn't going to even entertain it.

Welp its Friday and I'm bored.... voted no. Can't believe this is 6 pages long lol

Plus I personally think we are 2 years away from making a serious run to the playoffs. I don't think Watson helps us improve that much in the meantime.

[*bfine32*]

(01-15-2021, 09:40 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I saw this thread a few days ago and I swore I wasn't going to even entertain it.

Welp its Friday and I'm bored.... voted no.   Can't believe this is 6 pages long lol

Plus I personally think we are 2 years away from making a serious run to the playoffs.  I don't think Watson helps us improve that much in the meantime.

In 2 years Watson will be on the "affordable" part of his contract and hopefully Burrow will be looking for a big payday.  

[*Nately120*]

(01-15-2021, 10:49 PM)bfine32 Wrote: In 2 years Watson will be on the "affordable" part of his contract and hopefully Burrow will be looking for a big payday.  

And if Burrow plays like Watson during that point he's looking at a record breaking payday. Well, maybe behind the Mahommes one, but you know. 

[*bfine32*]

(01-15-2021, 11:04 PM)Nately120 Wrote: And if Burrow plays like Watson during that point he's looking at a record breaking payday. Well, maybe behind the Mahommes one, but you know. 

If we're lucky. 

[HarleyDog]

(01-15-2021, 09:40 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I saw this thread a few days ago and I swore I wasn't going to even entertain it.

Welp its Friday and I'm bored.... voted no.   Can't believe this is 6 pages long lol

Plus I personally think we are 2 years away from making a serious run to the playoffs.  I don't think Watson helps us improve that much in the meantime.

This is our offseason (too early again) so it's easy for this thread to go multiple pages. Burrow aint going anywhere. Just whatifisms. 

[Benton]

Option A: 1969 Camaro with a 327 engine, runs strong despite high mileage from the previous owner, but a muffler that has an annoyingly loud rattle.
Option B: 1969 Camaro with a 327 engine, all new parts, but a flat tire.

The analogy made more sense before the Jack and Coke. Anyway, Burrow.

[*bfine32*]

(01-16-2021, 12:23 AM)Benton Wrote: Option A: 1969 Camaro with a 327 engine, runs strong despite high mileage from the previous owner, but a muffler that has an annoyingly loud rattle.
Option B: 1969 Camaro with a 327 engine, all new parts, but a flat tire.

The analogy made more sense before the Jack and Coke. Anyway, Burrow.

Well it damn sure couldn't have made less. 

[HarleyDog]

(01-16-2021, 12:23 AM)Benton Wrote: Option A: 1969 Camaro with a 327 engine, runs strong despite high mileage from the previous owner, but a muffler that has an annoyingly loud rattle.
Option B: 1969 Camaro with a 327 engine, all new parts, but a flat tire.

The analogy made more sense before the Jack and Coke. Anyway, Burrow.

Happens to me often.

[SuperBowlBound!]

I like the fact that we drafted Burrow more than traded for Watson.

I also don't want Watson because o f the childish way he is handling his situation in Houston.
I really hate the NBA because the players run the team and I do not want that for the NFL.
If that happens in the NFL Cincinnati would surely be shit out of luck.

[Essex Johnson]

If we want to win in next 2 years and believe we have pieces after FA and feel we can do well in draft then yes go with Watson ..he is in the top of the best QBs in the league. Finally Watson brings something that Burrow did not show as a rookie well, throwing on the run with pressure.. which with even an improved line is essential with the Bengals. Watson is a elite now..we hope Burrow will be in a few years so in this hypo .. you would go with Watson

[*bfine32*]

(01-16-2021, 11:48 AM)SuperBowlBound! Wrote: I like the fact that we drafted Burrow more than traded for Watson.

I also don't want Watson because o f the childish way he is handling his situation in Houston.
I really hate the NBA because the players run the team and I do not want that for the NFL.
If that happens in the NFL Cincinnati would surely be shit out of luck.

How has be handled it childishly? As far as I know he's done nothing. Others have spoken on it, but to my knowledge DW has not gone "full Dunlap"  yet. And unlike Dunlap DW is performing at an elite level. 

[KillerGoose]

(01-15-2021, 10:49 PM)bfine32 Wrote: In 2 years Watson will be on the "affordable" part of his contract and hopefully Burrow will be looking for a big payday.  

I’ve seen you say this multiple times, so I have to be missing something. According to Spotrac, two years from now is Watsons most expensive year, as far as cap hit goes. The bonus is spread out to about five million a year, so taking the bonus away, Watson would have a cap hit of $37 million. What am I missing?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/deshaun-watson-21753/

Would Cincinnati not incur that roster bonus? I can’t find info around roster bonuses and traded players.