What I Think Some are Forgetting In Terms of Spending

[*ochocincos*]

(02-23-2021, 02:16 PM)spazz70 Wrote: Yes, but we draft sh*tty OL all the time...whether it be the 1st round or 3rd round

The last player drafted by the Bengals who had an 80+ PFF rating in a year with a majority of snaps was...
Kevin Zeitler, who was drafted in 2012.

Since Zeitler, the Bengals have drafted the following 13 OL:
- Tanner Hawkinson (2013)
- Reid Fragel (2013)
- TJ Johnson (2013)
- Russell Bodine (2014)
- Cedric Ogbuehi (2015)
- Jake Fisher (2015)
- Christian Westerman (2016)
- JJ Dielman (2017)
- Billy Price (2018)
- Rod Taylor (2018)
- Jonah Williams (2019)
- Michael Jordan (2019)
- Hakeem Adeniji (2020)

So the Bengals have been poor at drafting really impactful OL in quite some time.

[SErebel11]

(02-23-2021, 01:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Many fans greatly overestimate the ability to upgrade positions.


Then I see lots of fans talking about filling holes with third round picks.  But of the 355 players taken in the third round in the decade from '09 through '18 only about a quarter of them (93) started more than 48 games (approximately three seasons).  Well over half of them (200) started less than 32 games.  The draft is a much bigger crap shoot than people realize.

I haven’t any evidence but I assume that certain positions in round 3+ have a better hit rate for starters than others. I don’t know if you have data on this but I feel like centers, guards, defensive tackles would have a higher hit rate than some other positions like WR and CB. I could be wrong but it would be an interesting study. If that is the case, maybe teams should consider that when drafting.

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-19-2021, 07:18 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I keep hearing talk of who we'll sign out of William Jackson or Carl Lawson.  I also see a lot of breakdowns on our cap space where people account for different signings.  But I think some are forgetting a couple of things.

Jessie Bates and Sam Hubbard are both going into their final years.  If this team has these two in plans for their future and they have faith in them then now is the time to get a deal worked.

You get a discount by signing them early and avoid a number of things that may occur if their contracts run out (Franchise tag, hurt feelings, market going up, etc.)

I think Jesse Bates is an absolute no-brainer to get a deal done with.  He's earned it, he has to factor in our long-term plans, and there is no use in waiting.  Why wait to sign him when we're in a decreased cap year, with a decreased market?  If you don't get it done now you're potentially looking at the cap to reset from 180ish to the 210 range in 2022.  You're looking at the flood gates to open in 2022 with teams looking to spend after a tightened 2021.  The market will inevitably go up.

A lot of what I just said for Bates is true for Hubbard as well.  While I don't think he's as important as Bates, I don't you can deny that if you want him long-term then you work something this offseason.  Not only is he going to be more favorable to work with by giving him security a year early, he's not coming off a strong year.  The price he will cost in 2021 may very well skyrocket in 2022.

If I'm the Bengals I get both of these done.  And I wouldn't even consider signing William Jackson, unless he's looking for a sub 8 mil per deal.  I also wouldn't consider tagging Lawson either.  While I would like to have him, paying top 5 DE money is absolutely absurd.  

So I guess the question remains do you want to pay Lawson higher end money on a long-term vs. Hubbard at a discount?  Or do you work long-term deals for both DE's in one offseason?

I'll stop rambling, but I do think we really need to consider what happens with these two this offseason more than we currently do in our conversations about cap space.

Excellent points.  The debate between Lawson and Hubbard is a lengthy one.  I saw what Lawson did when he got his opportunity this past season (and I am in the camp that pressures are extremely important and with guys like Sims sometimes in coverage, it is a wonder he got any pressures at all) but he did it for one season.  His injury history is real, and the more I think about it, the more I want to franchise tag him and make him do it again if he wants the big contract.  Hubbard could be extended as he is clearly in their long-term plans.  Bates, as you said, is a no-brainer.

So, what other high dollar contracts will the Bengals be removing in the upcoming seasons?  Well, we know for certain that it won't be the QB...that is going to go sky-high.  Waynes?  Possibly.  I think I remember hearing something about an "out" after two seasons that wouldn't cripple the Bengals with dead cap money.  Outside of that, we don't really have an AJ or Geno that will be off the books soon.  Sure, the cap space will increase, but it is a very legitimate question about how to allocate all the future dollars.

One last remark:  Although I REALLY like the guy and love when he shows enthusiasm, this really highlights why you don't spend big money on a RB.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(02-20-2021, 09:40 PM)Nati#1 Wrote: Mackenzie Alexander is a must sign.. He brought alot of attitude to the D.

I am surprised at how little love Alexander gets on here.  I feel the exact same way and, aside from the Vonn Bell hit on JJSS (that will forever be awesome), I thought he did play with a lot of attitude and you could see a dramatic dropoff when he wasn't out there.