High Comedy from Hobson

[*ochocincos*]

(02-22-2021, 12:27 PM)Au165 Wrote: I could make an argument playing devil's advocate that the defensive line has been as bad as the offensive line for a while. The issue is the optics that not addressing the OL has with the franchise QB behind it. In reality, we will not win with the DL as currently constructed as we can't keep linebackers clean at the second level and can't generate a pass rush. Obviously, it would be tough to fix both in a single offseason so I can see the value of settling on attacking the OL now, but it still comes with the understanding that the defense will be one of the worst in the league most likely without significant investment on the DL. 

The issue really is that at OG you are looking at Thuney or bust as it sounds like Scherff is getting the tag again potentially. With that understanding, it is going to put a massive demand on Thuney which could make a bidding war we just are positioned to win. I think Matt Feiler is a really interesting option that has Guard/Tackle flexibility and should run somewhere in the 7 Million per year range give or take a million. If you could add him and Daryl Williams you would potentially be in a place where you can look for value but don't need to completely pass on taking a nice OL prospect that drops. If none fall in your lap you can go to the DL and stock up there and know your line is definitely improved still.

Don't forget Larry Warford, who will likely command less than $10 mill APY. He's not the same caliber as Thuney or Scherff, but I'd put him ahead of most other FA OGs.

If it was up to me, I'd address offense more in FA and defense in draft. I think the Bengals have dumped quite a bit into defense now and it's time for those guys to prove their worth. Draft DL and DBs who can rotate with their high-priced counterparts. I think Bengals can and should get two quality OL upgrades and a cheaper WR3 in FA, but also should take one of Sewell, Chase, Pitts, Slater, or Darrisaw in Rd 1. Get at least two defense in Rds 2-4.

[Au165]

(02-22-2021, 12:37 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Then how are we rolling over 10.79 million into 2021?  (If we only had one million extra last year)

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2021/01/20/bengals-2021-cap-space-outlook-accounting-rollover-money/

You gave me an explanation for this and I got some rep points for you.

If you look at SPOTRAC it shows 10.6 Million in cap before 2021 roll over for 2020. Now that number is probably slightly off because of the way those sites tend to account for incentives, so it wouldn't surprise me at all that we had 11 and change and rolled over 10.6. My guess is the million extra was in reference to what was left after the rollover. If you go back to 2019 they did a very similar thing bringing over all but about 800k forward into 2020.

[Au165]

(02-22-2021, 12:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Don't forget Larry Warford, who will likely command less than $10 mill APY. He's not the same caliber as Thuney or Scherff, but I'd put him ahead of most other FA OGs.

If it was up to me, I'd address offense more in FA and defense in draft. I think the Bengals have dumped quite a bit into defense now and it's time for those guys to prove their worth. Draft DL and DBs who can rotate with their high-priced counterparts. I think Bengals can and should get two quality OL upgrades and a cheaper WR3 in FA, but also should take one of Sewell, Chase, Pitts, Slater, or Darrisaw in Rd 1. Get at least two defense in Rds 2-4.

Something about Warford still kind of bothers me. I don't follow why the Saints cut him, as his cap wasn't too bad for his production. They cut him in May and he didn't find a deal right away and opted out in July, but I kind of wonder if teams were shying away from him and that is why he opted out. I know they drafted Ruiz, but they drafted Ruiz with the intent to cut Warford looking back now. 

I don't know, I may be overthinking it but I wonder if there is some sort of red flag there the public doesn't know about. 

[kalibengal]

(02-22-2021, 10:29 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes

Priority #1 - protect JB. Get some major upgrades on Oline through free agency and draft.

Priority #2 - get JB another weapon or two, WR, TE.

Priority #3 - Dline

This is the right recipe....and seems like a no brainer. 
but lets not get distracted by the cute new Unis and lets see if they deliver. Judging on how they spent last season and knowing they have a possible decade franchise QB that was knocked out due to their obvious poor judgement of talent.....maybe they will surprise us all with not one but 2 high end OL signings OR a trade. IMO we cant afford to roll the dice anymore on high picks n the draft on O line....our track record there is piss poor: Exhibit A, B, C and D : Ogblewie, Fisher, Price and Jordan. 

[*Synric*]

(02-22-2021, 12:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Something about Warford still kind of bothers me. I don't follow why the Saints cut him, as his cap wasn't too bad for his production. They cut him in May and he didn't find a deal right away and opted out in July, but I kind of wonder if teams were shying away from him and that is why he opted out. I know they drafted Ruiz, but they drafted Ruiz with the intent to cut Warford looking back now. 

I don't know, I may be overthinking it but I wonder if there is some sort of red flag there the public doesn't know about. 

I think Covid was a big part of it. Warford was a cap casualty and was singled out because he went into 2019 out of shape. He wasn't allowed to travel to meet with teams and doctors because of Covid then opted out before training camp.

There might be more to it but I believe Covid was a big reason why he wasn't signed right away.

[Wes Mantooth]

Here are the rollover figures I could find dating back to 2013.

2013 - 10 million
2014 - 8.7 million
2015 - 8.7 million
2016 - 7.5 million
2017 - 6.5 mllion
2018 - 11.5 million
2019 - 7.4 million
2020 - 10.7 million

Now keep in mind, this isn't necessarily an exact amount of unused cap space. Teams can choose how much to rollover. (Ex: Team A has 15 million in unspent cap space, but has elected to rollover 10 million, leaving 5 million permenantly unusued) So from these numbers all we can tell is that these are unused, but they could be higher.

Now what I took exception with Hobson saying is that we've only left 1 million on the table in 10 years. He claimed we had spent 1.49 billion againt a total of 1.50 billion in cap space. That means we had used 99.333% of what we could have spent.

I'm sorry, there is no way this is true. I can't even find the figures prior to 2013 but I definitely remember stockpiling money in 2011 and 2012 when Andy and AJ were on rookie deals. (Remember the "Andy and AJ Fund"?)

Fwiw, I don't even have a problem with the Bengals overall spending as it relates to the cap. I may fault how they choose to spend it, but I don't fault the total dollars invested. Ever since the floor requirements came to be I think pretty much all teams are responsable in terms of spending. They're all withing a percentage point or two from each other.

What I do have a problem with is Hobson's blatant lies. This is just another example. You can clearly see we're leaving money on the table and kicking the can down the road with rollover (that's fine), yet he acts like we always spend everything we possible can in a given season (we don't).

It's no different than how he tricks people into believing you have to account for an exact rookie pool number to be subtratcting from spending. Thus ignoring cuts to make room for the rookies, some rookies not counting against the top 51, etc. It's no different than his "injury settlements" spiel, or any other number of garbage he spews.

This guy provides more disinofrmation than any sports writer I've ever seen . And it's a shame you need a PHD in cap space and to be a math majory to actually follow along with what we can actually spend. It shouldn't be this complicated. And it's not anywhere else. Fans just know their teams will spend what they can, do the best they can, and the numbers will somehow work out. But here, this guy does so much to create doubt and confusion that no one knows what to believe.

/rantover

[*bengalfan74*]

(02-22-2021, 12:53 PM)kalibengal Wrote: This is the right recipe....and seems like a no brainer. 
but lets not get distracted by the cute new Unis and lets see if they deliver. Judging on how they spent last season and knowing they have a possible decade franchise QB that was knocked out due to their obvious poor judgement of talent.....maybe they will surprise us all with not one but 2 high end OL signings OR a trade. IMO we cant afford to roll the dice anymore on high picks n the draft on O line....our track record there is piss poor: Exhibit A, B, C and D : Ogblewie, Fisher, Price and Jordan. 

Agree

Hoping that a new/old Oline coach can turn a sow's ear into a silk purse is a pipe dream IMHO. We need at least 2 upgrades on Oline, minimum ! We have to focus on our offense getting better, period. Which means giving JB more that 1.175 seconds to throw the ball. 

And adding another receiver wouldn't hurt with the state of our TE's and WR's.

Worry about defense after you can score on offense. And protect your franchise QB.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(02-22-2021, 01:22 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Agree

Hoping that a new/old Oline coach can turn a sow's ear into a silk purse is a pipe dream IMHO. We need at least 2 upgrades on Oline, minimum ! We have to focus on our offense getting better, period. Which means giving JB more that 1.175 seconds to throw the ball. 

And adding another receiver wouldn't hurt with the state of our TE's and WR's.

Worry about defense after you can score on offense. And protect your franchise QB.

Yup. Worry about the defense after you have given the offense a real identity. If you don’t have a franchise QB, you can probably do both to an extent.

[CJD]

Quote:f you had to pick one...1.) Sign a high end guard and head to the draft needing a tackle, 2.) Sign a high end tackle and head to the draft needing a guard(s) 3.) Spend our cap signing both a guard and tackle and why?

Quote: Is None Of The Above available?

If the Bengals sign anything high end, shouldn't it be on defense?

Uh NO. What the ****, Hobson? We don't care about the defense. PROTECT BURROW, YOU CLOWN.

God, I hope that this is just 100% free agency smoke and illusions. Because if he actually believes we need to spend free agency improving our defense, then he is lost. I just hope that he doesn't reflect the front office's attitude about free agency.

[bengals67]

Not focusing on building a superior o line to protect your generational talent is brought to you by the same geniuses who hired a completely inexperienced head coach and  mediocre coordinators who could not get equivalent jobs with any other team.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-22-2021, 01:17 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Here are the rollover figures I could find dating back to 2013.

2013 - 10 million
2014 - 8.7 million
2015 - 8.7 million
2016 - 7.5 million
2017 - 6.5 mllion
2018 - 11.5 million
2019 - 7.4 million
2020 - 10.7 million

Now keep in mind, this isn't necessarily an exact amount of unused cap space.  Teams can choose how much to rollover. (Ex: Team A has 15 million in unspent cap space, but has elected to rollover 10 million, leaving 5 million permenantly unusued)  So from these numbers all we can tell is that these are unused, but they could be higher.

Now what I took exception with Hobson saying is that we've only left 1 million on the table in 10 years.  He claimed we had spent 1.49 billion againt a total of 1.50 billion in cap space.  That means we had used 99.333% of what we could have spent.

I'm sorry, there is no way this is true.  I can't even find the figures prior to 2013 but I definitely remember stockpiling money in 2011 and 2012 when Andy and AJ were on rookie deals.  (Remember the "Andy and AJ Fund"?)

Fwiw, I don't even have a problem with the Bengals overall spending as it relates to the cap.  I may fault how they choose to spend it, but I don't fault the total dollars invested.  Ever since the floor requirements came to be I think pretty much all teams are responsable in terms of spending.  They're all withing a percentage point or two from each other.

What I do have a problem with is Hobson's blatant lies.  This is just another example.  You can clearly see we're leaving money on the table and kicking the can down the road with rollover (that's fine), yet he acts like we always spend everything we possible can in a given season (we don't).

It's no different than how he tricks people into believing you have to account for an exact rookie pool number to be subtratcting from spending.  Thus ignoring cuts to make room for the rookies, some rookies not counting against the top 51, etc.  It's no different than his "injury settlements" spiel, or any other number of garbage he spews.

This guy provides more disinofrmation than any sports writer I've ever seen .  And it's a shame you need a PHD in cap space and to be a math majory to actually follow along with what we can actually spend.  It shouldn't be this complicated.  And it's not anywhere else.  Fans just know their teams will spend what they can, do the best they can, and the numbers will somehow work out.  But here, this guy does so much to create doubt and confusion that no one knows what to believe.

/rantover

That's been the Bengals MO for the past decade.

They stockpiled some cap quite a few years ago and basically now roll over about that much year-after-year. It's allowed them to spend just around the regular cap every year since.
However, because they've been sitting on this $7-11 mill every year, it's basically irrelevant. One would hope someday they hope to spend enough to only have $3 mill remaining or less, but perhaps they don't want to do that until they can at least win a playoff game and therefore have better confidence that money can push the team into SB contender.
It's worth noting they also don't ever seem to do things like converting roster bonus and/or base salary into signing bonus that will then be spread out across the remaining years. It technically kicks the can down the road, but it helps "win now" because you have more cap to improve your team in the short term.

So if you're at a birds-eye view of Bengals cap spending, you can easily say they spend their fair share. However, the devil is in the details. They don't restructure, they don't give a lot of guaranteed money, and they overpay for mediocre talent occasionally (especially with internal FAs).

They'll likely reserve $7-11 mill yet again this offseason that will ultimately be rolled over into 2022, but hopefully they at least acquire some good talent and trim the fat with some current guys who are not offering enough bang for their buck.

[fredtoast]

(02-22-2021, 01:17 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Now what I took exception with Hobson saying is that we've only left 1 million on the table in 10 years.  He claimed we had spent 1.49 billion againt a total of 1.50 billion in cap space.  That means we had used 99.333% of what we could have spent.

I take exception to this blatant lie.  Hobson never said this.  Here is the exact quote where he claims (correctly) that we have only left $10 million on the table.

According to their calculations, the Bengals have been under the salary cap by about $10 million total over that entire time period. A remarkable feat for anyone that's done a budget. To put that in perspective since the advent of the cap, the total salary cap during that period of time for each team has been more than $1.5 billion. So that means that the Bengals have spent about $1.49 billion and have been at the cap essentially every year.

[fredtoast]

(02-22-2021, 11:19 AM)fredtoast Wrote: He is not lying.  Bengals always roll over unused cap space and they only had one million extra last year.

I misquoted Hobson when I made this post.

He actually claimed that we have left a total of $10 million on the table.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-21-2021, 08:10 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I would LOVE to know what Hobson's salary is.  Any guesses?

I can't imagine he really puts in all that much work.  Some terrible writing, that somehow manages to do more harm than good for his employer, some radio/podcast appearances...

If he's making over 30k then the Bengals are getting ripped off.

Yeah the guy actually makes the FO look even worse then they actually are...

And they are one of the worst FO's in the NFL.

But they weren't last Offseason, I liked what they did. The guy gets paid and makes the FO look bad, crazy.

(02-21-2021, 08:15 PM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: Hobson's official title ought to be Chief Disinformation Officer. I don't put much stock in anything he writes, and that's ok. I don't mind that the ownership isn't totally transparent. They ought to be viewing themselves as being on wartime footing 12 months a year.  

No doubt Shady. No doubt.

[Murdock2420]

(02-22-2021, 03:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I misquoted Hobson when I made this post.

He actually claimed that we have left a total of $10 million on the table.

I'm not sure which is worse.

Not spending money and losing 

or 

Spending all but 10 million and having absolutely nothing to show for it.

One is cheap, the other is incompetence.

[fredtoast]

(02-22-2021, 04:31 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'm not sure which is worse.

Not spending money and losing 

or 

Spending all but 10 million and having absolutely nothing to show for it.

One is cheap, the other is incompetence.

This has been my position for years.

I get into heated discussions about how much the Bengals spend on players, but it really doesn't matter because even though they have spent the money they have spent it poorly.

Basically I defend the front office from being evil (intentionally cheap), but admit they are incompetent.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(02-22-2021, 05:30 PM)fredtoast Wrote: This has been my position for years.

I get into heated discussions about how much the Bengals spend on players, but it really doesn't matter because even though they have spent the money they have spent it poorly.

Basically I defend the front office from being evil (intentionally cheap), but admit they are incompetent.

I think this is the best post of yours I’ve ever read. Because that is exactly right.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(02-22-2021, 06:59 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: I think this is the best post of yours I’ve ever read. Because that is exactly right.

I concur.

[Murdock2420]

(02-22-2021, 06:59 PM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: I think this is the best post of yours I’ve ever read. Because that is exactly right.

(02-22-2021, 07:02 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I concur.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-22-2021, 12:51 PM)Au165 Wrote: Something about Warford still kind of bothers me. I don't follow why the Saints cut him, as his cap wasn't too bad for his production. They cut him in May and he didn't find a deal right away and opted out in July, but I kind of wonder if teams were shying away from him and that is why he opted out. I know they drafted Ruiz, but they drafted Ruiz with the intent to cut Warford looking back now. 

I don't know, I may be overthinking it but I wonder if there is some sort of red flag there the public doesn't know about. 

I think COVID was the big reason. In May, no teams were meeting with players, so no team could do a medical check or workout with Warford. I'd still bring him in for a workout and medical check this offseason. He also won't count against comp picks, which is another bonus for Mike Brown.