How bad was AJ Green last year?

[sandwedge]

(03-02-2021, 12:27 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I think something that needs to mentioned with AJ's disappointing play is the disappointing way he was used (targeted way too often, running routes he shouldn't have been).

You don't get to the level of OP's numbers without both the player and the playbook and playcalling being a cause in this.

The fact of the matter is, besides his decline in skill and besides the front office overvaluing him, the coaching staff never really altered their approach.  AJ Green was still being forced into the offense at a ridiculous rate long after it was apparent he wasn't the player they had hoped for.  He was still running routes down the field long after it was apparent he couldn't seperate, and couldn't go up and make plays.

After weeks 4 and 5, where he produced 1 catch for 3 yards, and 0 catches, he was targeted 11 times in week 6, and 13 times in week 7.   These were by far his most productive games, but I think it was clear they went out of their way to get him involved.  (Fwiw, we lost both games)

Then he went on this run in weeks 8-12:  2 for 19 yards, 0 for 0, 4 for 41, 0 for 0, and another 0-0.

So at this point you would think they'd phase him out of the offense a bit, right?  Well, no.  He ended the season with target totals of 7, 3, 6 and 7.  Sill a 92 target pace when averaged over 16 games, and this came in an offense we were thowing less than earlier in the season.

And you can't just blame Burrow for forcing him the ball.  It was clear they had designed plays for him.  And it was clear, despite it never working, they kept trying to hit him down the field.

I could be wrong, but I think AJ had one catch on the season that was down the field 20 yards or more.  Pretty sure he had zero beyond 30.  At what point do you realize he can't run these routes?

So yeah, AJ did not look anywhere near what he once was.  But the question you have to ask yourself, is why was a guy liked that targeted so much?  Why didn't they use him differently?

Larry Fitzgerald has been running pretty much all underneath routes for the last few years.  It's rare you'll see him run a route beyond 12 yards.  Perhaps we could have had AJ strictly playing a similar role?  Perhaps we could gone with more 2 RB sets and pulled him from the field more often?  Perhaps we could have run out an extra lineman?

All I'm saying is, as much as this is an indictment on AJ, it's just as much as indictment on the coaching staff that allowed these numbers to come to fruition.

Why don't we stop blaming the coaching staff? AJ got paid to play football. Why don't we all just admit he isn't the player he once was.

[sandwedge]

(03-02-2021, 02:32 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Playcalling can be a big factor in a player's performance.
AJ does better on certain routes and situations than others. If he's being used in a certain way that's different that what he excels at, his performance can suffer.

I'm sorry but gonna have to disagree with that. He didn't have it anymore. There wasn't a burst, someone else said it, he caught or didn't catch the ball because he turn into a body catcher. Where you going play him?

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-01-2021, 08:49 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: I didn't see what you saw. I saw a less confident and almost fearful receiver. He was much slower and less ball control as well. I think he's just trying to get paid but actually doesn't believe in himself as much as many of us do. His play displayed them characteristics imo. His stats backed it up.

Dead on.  The "Next Gen" stats back it as well.  I am not sure where he finished, but at one point in the season I heard on a podcast that the was ranked 2nd to last of all NFL WRs in terms of separation.  His GPS-enabled MPH was ridiculously slow as well.

I loved the guy in his prime, but he is one that clearly fell off the proverbial cliff in terms of his abilities.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-01-2021, 08:52 PM)Au165 Wrote: Yea, he looked shot. My issue was there was simply no variance to his acceleration in and out of breaks. His routes looked rounded and he did little to stack corners. He could potentially find a role on a team playing out of the slot as a chain mover, but I think his days on the outside are over.

Agreed.  He was last successful three years ago and they had him play a fair number of snaps out of the slot, and if memory serves, that is where he was most productive.  You don't take Tyler Boyd off the field for AJ Green now.

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-01-2021, 11:12 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I feel this would be 100% true if he was looking for a payday, but that shouldn’t be his main goal at this point in his career.. If all he wants is out of Cinci then the logic makes sense.

If he got hurt in 2020, his chances of getting an opportunity are close to none. If he survived the 2020 season unscathed, some team will give him a chance in preseason and TC. I believe he was so done with ZT and the Bengals that his goal was to not get hurt.

Heck, guys like Shady McCoy find their way onto contenders while providing NOTHING to their team. Why can’t AJ do the same?

He absolutely can, and I could see him taking a team-friendly deal to play in Atlanta to be close to his hometown and play in a dome.  I know John Harbaugh has always loved him, but he probably sees the same thing we have.  For some reason, I always thought he might end up in Seattle, but I have no basis as to why I think that.   

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-02-2021, 12:27 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I think something that needs to mentioned with AJ's disappointing play is the disappointing way he was used (targeted way too often, running routes he shouldn't have been).

You don't get to the level of OP's numbers without both the player and the playbook and playcalling being a cause in this.

The fact of the matter is, besides his decline in skill and besides the front office overvaluing him, the coaching staff never really altered their approach.  AJ Green was still being forced into the offense at a ridiculous rate long after it was apparent he wasn't the player they had hoped for.  He was still running routes down the field long after it was apparent he couldn't seperate, and couldn't go up and make plays.

After weeks 4 and 5, where he produced 1 catch for 3 yards, and 0 catches, he was targeted 11 times in week 6, and 13 times in week 7.   These were by far his most productive games, but I think it was clear they went out of their way to get him involved.  (Fwiw, we lost both games)

Then he went on this run in weeks 8-12:  2 for 19 yards, 0 for 0, 4 for 41, 0 for 0, and another 0-0.

So at this point you would think they'd phase him out of the offense a bit, right?  Well, no.  He ended the season with target totals of 7, 3, 6 and 7.  Sill a 92 target pace when averaged over 16 games, and this came in an offense we were thowing less than earlier in the season.

And you can't just blame Burrow for forcing him the ball.  It was clear they had designed plays for him.  And it was clear, despite it never working, they kept trying to hit him down the field.

I could be wrong, but I think AJ had one catch on the season that was down the field 20 yards or more.  Pretty sure he had zero beyond 30.  At what point do you realize he can't run these routes?

So yeah, AJ did not look anywhere near what he once was.  But the question you have to ask yourself, is why was a guy liked that targeted so much?  Why didn't they use him differently?

Larry Fitzgerald has been running pretty much all underneath routes for the last few years.  It's rare you'll see him run a route beyond 12 yards.  Perhaps we could have had AJ strictly playing a similar role?  Perhaps we could gone with more 2 RB sets and pulled him from the field more often?  Perhaps we could have run out an extra lineman?

All I'm saying is, as much as this is an indictment on AJ, it's just as much as indictment on the coaching staff that allowed these numbers to come to fruition.

The way the targets were broken out almost equally shows Burrow's focus on trying to get everyone involved in the offense.  Your point about LFitz is very fitting here, as he found a way to extend his career when he had lost his vertical speed and ability to separate.  Fitz still has great hands and body control, and plays to his advantages.  

I am uncertain, however, that it was the coaching staff allowing these numbers to "come to fruition" as they had lost Mixon, Tate, and Uzomah (who started the season off pretty well and was on pace for a really good season) to injury.  You weren't going to take Green off the field for Erickson, who largely plays in the slot.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-02-2021, 10:53 AM)ochocincos Wrote: In the past 2.5 seasons, AJ Green had fewer yards than John Ross:
Ross - 654
Green - 530

They also played nearly the same number of games:
Ross - 19 games
Green - 17 games

In the past 3 seasons, here is how much they earned:
Ross - $14 mill
Green - $41 mill

This is when you realize it is over...when you end up being on the lesser end of a comparison with John Ross.  

And, I know, I was one that had high hopes for Ross.  Biggest whiff of a draft pick I have had since...I will have to think about that for a while.  Probably Jordan Willis but he was only a third round pick.  I really liked him.  But at #9 and having the permanent stigma of being the guy drafted right before Patrick Mahommes....Ugh.  

[*ochocincos*]

(03-02-2021, 11:55 PM)sandwedge Wrote: I'm sorry but gonna have to disagree with that. He didn't have it anymore. There wasn't a burst, someone else said it, he caught or didn't catch the ball because he turn into a body catcher. Where you going play him?

I wasn't saying AJ Green is exactly the way he was back before his 2018 injury. I'm just saying playcalling can affect how a player performs.
I too think Green has lost a step and isn't as effective.

[*jason*]

(03-02-2021, 11:47 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Why don't we stop blaming the coaching staff? AJ got paid to play football. Why don't we all just admit he isn't the player he once was.

Everyone is admitting that... Wes is just pointing out that he wasn't throwing the ball to himself.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

I personally wouldn't mind a reunion with former Bengal Marvin Jones.

[GreenCornBengal]

(03-03-2021, 09:27 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: I personally wouldn't mind a reunion with former Bengal Marvin Jones.

I said this in a thread a few months back. He’s been consistently good and I’m all for it if we could get him on the cheap... I’m guessing he will take a paycut to play for a contender tho... KC or GB would be good fits for him IMO.

[BoomerFan]

It will be interesting to see how much AJ can get in the upcoming year, as well as if he'll be a starter or just a rotational guy.

I think some team will probably cough up 8 million a year for 2 years for him, which is way overpaying from what I've seen. I won't be surprised if he is then cut after a year. If the Bengals could keep him for under 5 million a year and he was willing to be a rotational guy then I'd be happy to see him retire in stripes. He's worth that from experience, locker room presence, and being a large WR who has years of experience with the team and still might make the occasional amazing catch.

[fredtoast]

(03-03-2021, 09:27 PM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: I personally wouldn't mind a reunion with former Bengal Marvin Jones.

Always liked Jones game, but he is too old now.  He will be 31 this year and WR tend to fall off a cliff around that age.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-04-2021, 09:40 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Always liked Jones game, but he is too old now.  He will be 31 this year and WR tend to fall off a cliff around that age.

Especially a speed guy.

[Housh]

(03-01-2021, 07:59 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: My opinion, he was saving himself all year to avoid injury looking forward to this free agency. That isn’t me saying he will be 2015 AJ once signing with a new team, just saying he held back to stay healthy enough for a chance somewhere else.

This makes no sense

One because football is so physical and a game of warriors so just to survive he’d have to go 100%.

Two he is not going to hinder his earning potential “staying healthy”

Makes no sense