Expected 2021 Cap Cost for Draft Picks - $9.4 mill

[*ochocincos*]

Per Ben Baby, the approximate cap hit for all the 2021 NFL draft picks (assuming Bengals keep them all) is to be about $9.4 mill.

Per https://t.co/xwN2BwNMg6, the Bengals have around $43 million in cap space. That doesn't include the estimated $9.4 million the Bengals need for the incoming rookie class. https://t.co/3eY4v8toKz

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) March 10, 2021

It's important to know this, as the Bengals could go a few different ways when accounting for this.
They could reserve (at least) $10 mill to ensure they have enough to sign all their draft picks or make additional cuts prior to signing the draft picks in order to free up enough money.

Given previous history, I would guess the former is how they will approach.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Keep in mind that the Bengals already have 50 players under contract with their current cap number.

That means only 1 more will be added without having to remove a different player for cap calculations (they only use the top 51 paid players).

No player is currently making less than $660k. So even if the Bengals keep all 7 of their picks, that means at least 6 guys will get kicked off the roster and none of them will be making less than $660k. Most of them will probably be making more. Players like Keaton Sutherland, Stanley Morgan, and Isaiah Prince are all making $850k.

So even if we assume a low number like $750k on average, multiply that by a minimum of 6, and that's $4.5m that will be coming off if they just sign and keep all 7 draft picks, making that $9.4m actually $4.9m that will be added on.

Disappointed that Ben Baby has apparently taken up the mantle of draft pick misinformation to cry poor that Hobspin normally wears.


- - - - - -

EDIT: I forgot the Bengals had an extra 7th due to the Dunlap trade. So the numbers are slightly off, but the point remains.

[*Synric*]

(03-10-2021, 05:37 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Per Ben Baby, the approximate cap hit for all the 2021 NFL draft picks (assuming Bengals keep them all) is to be about $9.4 mill.

Per https://t.co/xwN2BwNMg6, the Bengals have around $43 million in cap space. That doesn't include the estimated $9.4 million the Bengals need for the incoming rookie class. https://t.co/3eY4v8toKz

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) March 10, 2021

It's important to know this, as the Bengals could go a few different ways when accounting for this.
They could reserve (at least) $10 mill to ensure they have enough to sign all their draft picks or make additional cuts prior to signing the draft picks in order to free up enough money.

Given previous history, I would guess the former is how they will approach.

Andre Perrotta did a breakdown of the cost of the rookie class with displacement.

Due to Top-51 Cap accounting and roster displacement, the Bengals do NOT need $9.4M in Cap Space to sign their rookie class. Only need $4,138,083

Here's the math:

($660,000 x 8 total picks) = $5,280,000

Year-1 Rookie Allocation: $9,418,003

$9,418,003 - $5,280,000 = $4,138,003 https://t.co/PmL7RKuxDO

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) March 10, 2021

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2021, 05:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Disappointed that Ben Baby has apparently taken up the mantle of draft pick misinformation to cry poor that Hobspin normally wears.

It is no more "misinformation" than when we talk about how much a free agent costs without subtracting the amount of the guy he bumps off the roster.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-10-2021, 05:51 PM)fredtoast Wrote: It is no more "misinformation" than when we talk about how much a free agent costs without subtracting the amount of the guy he bumps off the roster.

Except we do, a lot. People have pretty regularly mentioned on this board how much savings there'd be from cutting Hopkins or Hart if they went out and got themselves a big time FA OL.

[*Synric*]

I wouldnt call it misinformation more like incomplete. He just got the estimated cost for the draft class straight from Spotrac. I can't blame him for that anymore than people who believe Spotrac's estimated Free Agent Costs which are usually major lowball for most guys.

[XenoMorph]

(03-10-2021, 05:46 PM)Synric Wrote: Andre Perrotta did a breakdown of the cost of the rookie class with displacement.

Due to Top-51 Cap accounting and roster displacement, the Bengals do NOT need $9.4M in Cap Space to sign their rookie class. Only need $4,138,083

Here's the math:

($660,000 x 8 total picks) = $5,280,000

Year-1 Rookie Allocation: $9,418,003

$9,418,003 - $5,280,000 = $4,138,003 https://t.co/PmL7RKuxDO

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) March 10, 2021

some picks get more than the 660k

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2021, 05:55 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except we do, a lot. People have pretty regularly mentioned on this board how much savings there'd be from cutting Hopkins or Hart if they went out and got themselves a big time FA OL.

Yes, some people make those type of comments.

But are you going to accuse every person who talks about how much a free agent ill cost without subtracting the cost of the player he replaces of "spreading misinformation" or "crying poor"?

Seems like a kind of silly overreaction to me.  I'd say 90% of the times someone mentions the price of a free agent they don't include the savings of the guy replaced on the roster.  Instead they just talk about how much a guy is going to get paid.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-10-2021, 06:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, some people make those type of comments.

But are you going to accuse every person who talks about how much a free agent ill cost without subtracting the cost of the player he replaces of "spreading misinformation" or "crying poor"?

Seems like a kind of silly overreaction to me.  I'd say 90% of the times someone mentions the price of a free agent they don't include the savings of the guy replaced on the roster.  Instead they just talk about how much a guy is going to get paid.

And how often of that 90% is the guy he replacing going to cover 1/2 of the total amount he'll cost? Because that's the case with these draft class cost talks.

It's not like we're talking about replacing a minimum guy with a $14m guy, we're talking about roughly 1/2 of the cost of the rookies will be offset. It's a significant difference. Case and point the thread maker mentioned reserving $10m for the rookies.

[Sanforbd]

(03-10-2021, 06:28 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yes, some people make those type of comments.

But are you going to accuse every person who talks about how much a free agent ill cost without subtracting the cost of the player he replaces of "spreading misinformation" or "crying poor"?

Seems like a kind of silly overreaction to me.  I'd say 90% of the times someone mentions the price of a free agent they don't include the savings of the guy replaced on the roster.  Instead they just talk about how much a guy is going to get paid.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-10-2021, 05:46 PM)Synric Wrote: Andre Perrotta did a breakdown of the cost of the rookie class with displacement.

Due to Top-51 Cap accounting and roster displacement, the Bengals do NOT need $9.4M in Cap Space to sign their rookie class. Only need $4,138,083

Here's the math:

($660,000 x 8 total picks) = $5,280,000

Year-1 Rookie Allocation: $9,418,003

$9,418,003 - $5,280,000 = $4,138,003 https://t.co/PmL7RKuxDO

— Andre Perrotta (@andreperrotta13) March 10, 2021

Thanks, Syn.
That might be more accurate, but it may not stop the Bengals from reserving the full $9.4 mill for draft picks and then keeping the remaining for extensions and/or rollover.

[PDub80]

So, basically, the draft picks cost is = to cutting 1 Geno Atkins. Easy choice. Get me my scissors.

[Wes Mantooth]

(03-10-2021, 06:25 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: some picks get more than the 660k

He worded it weird in his tweet.  I'm not sure why he used "picks".

The 660k represents the cheapest players on our roster.  We have 9 of them at that amount.  So to make room for the 8 rookies we need to get rid of 8 guys to make space for them on the roster.

The difference (4.1 mil) is the absolute maximum we pay out in addition to our current cap numbers. 

It all gets a little confusing with top 51, and the fact we don't know who will be cut yet.  But essentially you can never just add the entire rookie pool to you cap numbers, unless you've only got 43 players or less under contract.

[Wes Mantooth]

(03-10-2021, 08:33 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Thanks, Syn.
That might be more accurate, but it may not stop the Bengals from reserving the full $9.4 mill for draft picks and then keeping the remaining for extensions and/or rollover.

Fwiw, a few weeks ago I went back over the last 8 years, and the Bengals have elected to roll over somewhere between 7-12 million every single year.  It's pretty much like clockwork at this point.

Hell, even last year where we spent all that money we managed to roll over 10.79 million.

I'd look for the same this year.  Even though we currently have 42 million in space we can use, the team most likely looks at it like 30-35 million available.  And with Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins' contracts waiting on down the road, they may even start setting aside a fund worth of rollover again, a'la the Andy and AJ Fund.

[SErebel11]

Basically here is a stripped down version of their cap space with Atkins a June 1 cut, Hart cut, and Uzomah cut as I see it.


   

One can argue the merits of Bernard, Tupou, Johnson, Jordan etc but I am not going to do that currently. 

Basically, that gives the Bengals 32 roster players under contract. If 7 of the 8 drafted players make the roster then roughly you add 9 million in salary cap. Take out the 10M they like to carry over and Cincy has about 59.5M in cap room to add 14 players. Out of those 14 players, assuming some combination of 6 from K, P, QB2, RB4, WR6, S4, LB6 and probably Brandon Wilson together doesn't add more than 12-13M to the cap . That leaves Cincinnati with about 46.5M in cap space to sign 8 free agents. 

Also, Cincinnati could cut Bernard and restructure Boyd and add 9m more. That would create around 55.5M to sign 9 FA including moving some of the cap hit into next season for when the cap goes back up significantly.

[XenoMorph]

(03-10-2021, 10:43 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: He worded it weird in his tweet.  I'm not sure why he used "picks".

The 660k represents the cheapest players on our roster.  We have 9 of them at that amount.  So to make room for the 8 rookies we need to get rid of 8 guys to make space for them on the roster.

The difference (4.1 mil) is the absolute maximum we pay out in addition to our current cap numbers. 

It all gets a little confusing with top 51, and the fact we don't know who will be cut yet.  But essentially you can never just add the entire rookie pool to you cap numbers, unless you've only got 43 players or less under contract.

Never hurts to have a a few mil left over for mid season signings and such. 

[*ochocincos*]

(03-11-2021, 02:53 AM)SErebel11 Wrote: Basically here is a stripped down version of their cap space with Atkins a June 1 cut, Hart cut, and Uzomah cut as I see it.




One can argue the merits of Bernard, Tupou, Johnson, Jordan etc but I am not going to do that currently. 

Basically, that gives the Bengals 32 roster players under contract. If 7 of the 8 drafted players make the roster then roughly you add 9 million in salary cap. Take out the 10M they like to carry over and Cincy has about 59.5M in cap room to add 14 players. Out of those 14 players, assuming some combination of 6 from K, P, QB2, RB4, WR6, S4, LB6 and probably Brandon Wilson together doesn't add more than 12-13M to the cap . That leaves Cincinnati with about 46.5M in cap space to sign 8 free agents. 

Also, Cincinnati could cut Bernard and restructure Boyd and add 9m more. That would create around 55.5M to sign 9 FA including moving some of the cap hit into next season for when the cap goes back up significantly.

I can't recall a time in the past 15 years where the Bengals have restructured a deal. At least not one that was memorable or significant.

[SErebel11]

(03-11-2021, 11:08 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I can't recall a time in the past 15 years where the Bengals have restructured a deal. At least not one that was memorable or significant.

I agree but they did spend huge on 2 outside the organization free agents last off-season which is definitely outside their norm and seem to be set again to add big contracts this off-season. Maybe they get crazy and try to squeeze every cap dollar they can and make several big additions. I simply was saying it was an option. 

[CJD]

So cutting Geno pays for the draft class.