PFF Performance Improvement Index - 2021

[*ochocincos*]

PFF has released what they call a performance improvement index chart based on the players leaving compared to the confirmed players being added. Basically a WAR like what baseball has.

As of right now, the Bengals have gotten worse according to their evaluation at -0.92%
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-nfl-free-agency-pff-improvement-index-for-all-32-teams

EDIT - Bengals improvement number updated through 3/25

[XenoMorph]

this is kinda like grading a draft before they play a single snap... We know production doesnt always flow into new systems and sometimes players were drafted into the wrong system. (as we also know lol)

[fredtoast]

So far we have "lost" players that we have not replaced like starting LB Josh Bynes, SS Shawn Williams, P Kevin Huber, WR A J Green, C BJ Finney, and TE Cethan Carter (got 3 yr $7.8 million). So obviously we have gotten worse.

But overall I think we will end up a lot better before it is all over.

The Two CBs we signed (Hilton, Awuzie) are not as good as the two we lost (Jackson, Alexander).

Hendrickson is an upgrade over Lawson. Even if you think production is about the same Lawson's injury history was terrifying.

Ogunjobi is a huge upgrade at DT.

So let's wait and see what the result is after free agency is complete. I am pretty certain we will re-sign Huber and maybe even Bynes. I also think we will sign a WR in free agency.

[fredtoast]

(03-18-2021, 02:46 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: this is kinda like grading a draft before they play a single snap...    We know production doesnt always flow into new systems and sometimes players were drafted into the wrong system. (as we also know lol)

Actually it is more like grading a draft after the first two rounds.

We are not even close to finished in free agency.  So we have "lost" a lot more players than we have signed.  Obviously we are going to be worse at this point.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-18-2021, 02:55 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually it is more like grading a draft after the first two rounds.

We are not even close to finished in free agency.  So we have "lost" a lot more players than we have signed.  Obviously we are going to be worse at this point.

Correct.
My intent was to share the index in general and then update the OP over the coming week(s) as more moves happen.

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Good stuff here. From the OP and Fred.

Just want to say that just measuring departures vs additions is not the only way to measure improvement. Another is health. We had some important guys miss most/all of the year last year (Reader, Waynes, Topou) or were carrying high salaries and not very productive for various reasons (Dunlap, Atkins, Green).

Getting the former group back in the fold and replacing the latter group with more productive guys should help us.

I know it is a bit of a cheat, but I look at CB like this:

2020: WJ3, Sims, Alexander, Phillips, Brown, Davis.
2021: Waynes, Awuzie, Hilton, Phillips, Brown, Davis.

Awuzie is better than Sims. Hilton/Alexander is a wash. Waynes is an unknown. The rest is the same.

On the D line, we get Reader back. And Topou. Added Ogunjobi. Swapped in Hendrickson for Lawson. Atkins is the unknown. Wren potentially back.

O line being the same is a problem. Most of our starters are reserve quality (or worse). Most of our reserves are not NFL quality. Though some are young. And getting Pollack helps. I'd note Hart was are #2 OL in terms of PFF and our best rum blocker. If he could play RG.....

LT: Sewell
LG: J. Williams (#3 OT)
C: Hopkins
RG: Hart (#4 OT)
RT: Reiff

Backups: G: Su'a Filo; OT/ OG: Adeniji; Draft at C/G top of round 3.

Pick 2 of Jordan, Johnson, Spain, Redmond, more draft picks or FAs to round things out. Cut Price to save $$$. If we sign a legit OG, then cut Hart.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

We got Reiff, turned that FA around big time...

[*SHRacerX*]

(03-18-2021, 02:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: PFF has released what they call a performance improvement index chart based on the players leaving compared to the confirmed players being added. Basically a WAR like what baseball has.

As of right now, the Bengals have gotten worse according to their evaluation at -2%
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-nfl-free-agency-pff-improvement-index-for-all-32-teams

Note that this chart seems to be updated daily, as yesterday it was sitting right at 0 for Bengals.

Patriots, WFT, Jets, Jags, Cards, Bears, Browns, Broncos, Rams, Vikings, Dolphins, and Chiefs are the teams they consider having improved so far through FA.

Very early, but good stuff.  Thanks for sharing.  Maybe make this a sticky? That you could keep updating?  

I, for one, love that the team to the east hasn't gotten better and by the time all is said and done, will likely be much worse.  

[samhain]

(03-18-2021, 02:53 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So far we have "lost" players that we have not replaced like starting LB Josh Bynes, SS Shawn Williams, P Kevin Huber, WR A J Green, C BJ Finney, and TE Cethan Carter (got 3 yr $7.8 million).  So obviously we have gotten worse.

But overall I think we will end up a lot better before it is all over.

The Two CBs we signed (Hilton, Awuzie) are not as good as the two we lost (Jackson, Alexander).

Hendrickson is an upgrade over Lawson.  Even if you think production is about the same Lawson's injury history was terrifying.

Ogunjobi is a huge upgrade at DT.

So let's wait and see what the result is after free agency is complete.  I am pretty certain we will re-sign Huber and maybe even Bynes.  I also think we will sign a WR in free agency.

The corner thing isn't as cut and dried to me.  I liked Alexander, but I think Mike Hilton is the better player.  He's a guy that does it all on the defense and does it pretty well.  If he can replicate what he did in Pittsburgh, he's an upgrade.  Awuzie isn't nearly the man corner that Jackson was, but I don't believe he's Jackson's replacement.  That would be Waynes.  Awuzie is a nice zone corner wit upside.  If Waynes is the number 1 boundary corner and he's the 2, then to me that's an improvement over guys like Sims that were getting run out there last year, and a big one.  

I like Darius Phillips, but like almost everyone here, the team wasn't ready to bet on him health-wise to hold down a starting boundary spot.  It's all conjecture, but I think our secondary got better.  I'd still like to see how he improves if/when injury presses him into a starting role.  I think he's a starting-caliber player if he can stay on the field.

The pass rush is a concern, mainly at DE.  Hendrickson and Hubbard aren't enough.  They will need to draft a speed rusher to rotate in unless Kareem is a lot better than anyone knows.  Ogunjobi is about the best they could do at DT.  It was a weak market.  He's young and has shown the ability to get it done, so we'll see if he can put in the work.  

[XenoMorph]

how we doing now?

[TJ528]

(03-18-2021, 04:39 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Good stuff here. From the OP and Fred.

Just want to say that just measuring departures vs additions is not the only way to measure improvement. Another is health. We had some important guys miss most/all of the year last year (Reader, Waynes, Topou) or were carrying high salaries and not very productive for various reasons (Dunlap, Atkins, Green).

Getting the former group back in the fold and replacing the latter group with more productive guys should help us.

I know it is a bit of a cheat, but I look at CB like this:

2020: WJ3, Sims, Alexander, Phillips, Brown, Davis.
2021: Waynes, Awuzie, Hilton, Phillips, Brown, Davis.

Awuzie is better than Sims. Hilton/Alexander is a wash. Waynes is an unknown. The rest is the same.

On the D line, we get Reader back. And Topou. Added Ogunjobi. Swapped in Hendrickson for Lawson. Atkins is the unknown. Wren potentially back.

O line being the same is a problem. Most of our starters are reserve quality (or worse). Most of our reserves are not NFL quality. Though some are young. And getting Pollack helps. I'd note Hart was are #2 OL in terms of PFF and our best rum blocker. If he could play RG.....

LT: Sewell
LG: J. Williams (#3 OT)
C: Hopkins
RG: Hart (#4 OT)
RT: Reiff

Backups: G: Su'a Filo; OT/ OG: Adeniji; Draft at C/G top of round 3.

Pick 2 of Jordan, Johnson, Spain, Redmond, more draft picks or FAs to round things out. Cut Price to save $$$. If we sign a legit OG, then cut Hart.

I think the note about Hart shows how poor of talent our OL really is.  Hopefully, we can sign Reiff and sign a couple OG and fix the line.  If not JoeyB is gonna running for his life again.  

[Luvnit2]

(03-18-2021, 02:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: PFF has released what they call a performance improvement index chart based on the players leaving compared to the confirmed players being added. Basically a WAR like what baseball has.

As of right now, the Bengals have gotten worse according to their evaluation at -2.31%
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-nfl-free-agency-pff-improvement-index-for-all-32-teams

Note that this chart seems to be updated daily, as yesterday it was sitting right at 0 for Bengals.

Patriots, WFT, Jets, Jags, Cards, Bears, Browns, Broncos, Rams, Vikings, Dolphins, and Chiefs are the teams they consider having improved so far through FA.

EDIT - Bengals improvement number updated 3/19 at 7:50 AM CDT

I am not sure how any team that lost 2 great OT's (Chiefs( are graded higher, but that is their ranking.

We are not done with the FA nor have we had the draft yet, I am banking on getting some upgrades short and long term.

But getting Waynes back and Reader should be a part of the evaluation, at least Waynes who never played a snap. In my opinion, he is better than Jackson.

[*ochocincos*]

Now that we are nearing the end of the 2nd week of FA, I've updated the OP to reflect as of yesterday.
Bengals are still one of the teams still considered to be worse than they were last year.

[GreenCornBengal]

(03-26-2021, 01:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Now that we are nearing the end of the 2nd week of FA, I've updated the OP to reflect as of yesterday.
Bengals are still one of the teams still considered to be worse than they were last year.

It’s a weird thing to judge because of the injuries last year. The team could be worse but will actually show better because of guys returning.

[fredtoast]

(03-26-2021, 01:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Now that we are nearing the end of the 2nd week of FA, I've updated the OP to reflect as of yesterday.
Bengals are still one of the teams still considered to be worse than they were last year.

We lost a starting LB (Bynes) and WR (Green)  that we have not replaced in free agency.

Based on his contract ($6 million) Green is considered a quality free agent, but his production last year was worst in the league by any starting WR.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-26-2021, 01:28 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: It’s a weird thing to judge because of the injuries last year. The team could be worse but will actually show better because of guys returning.

Yeah, didn't expect them to say we improved anyways even though we got younger and more productive players over the
ones we lost while getting our injured players from last year we hardly got to see if at all. Reader and Waynes, Mixon coming
back etc. Tee becoming our #1 WR over AJ who was a shadow of himself, bringing in Ogunjobi over Geno who was nowhere 
last season, adding Reiff, Hendrickson, Hilton, Awuzie, Ricardo Allen, Spain, Apple. While retaining our good players.

We are improved and I would say by a large margin. Problem is we don't know if the coaching has improved although I really
like us bringing back Pollack and bringing in Hobby to coach the DL.

[fredtoast]

(03-26-2021, 01:28 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: It’s a weird thing to judge because of the injuries last year. The team could be worse but will actually show better because of guys returning.

Going into last year I considered our D-line to be one of the strengths of the team.  But Reader and Atkins only played a COMBINED 378 snaps and Dunlap was benched.

[TJ528]

(03-26-2021, 02:48 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, didn't expect them to say we improved anyways even though we got younger and more productive players over the
ones we lost while getting our injured players from last year we hardly got to see if at all. Reader and Waynes, Mixon coming
back etc. Tee becoming our #1 WR over AJ who was a shadow of himself, bringing in Ogunjobi over Geno who was nowhere 
last season, adding Reiff, Hendrickson, Hilton, Awuzie, Ricardo Allen, Spain, Apple. While retaining our good players.

We are improved and I would say by a large margin. Problem is we don't know if the coaching has improved although I really
like us bringing back Pollack and bringing in Hobby to coach the DL.

I can't say we're in improved by a large margin.  They've added some nice pieces but I personally dont think Hendrickson replacing Lawson is that big of an upgrade...we've improved in the defensive back field.  The defense still lacks depth and needs help on the DL.  The LB are young and definitely needs more depth as well.  Any injuries to this defensive group the way it is now and we'll be looking at the defense like we did last year.  I think the biggest obsticle is Lou coaching the defense but we'll have to wait and see on that.  

On offense we've add Reiff, and Pollack.  You can't rely on bringing in Sewell and starting him at RT and he instantly be an upgrade.  I mean Jonah has played 10 games in 2 years and he's still trying to get a grasp of the NFL game.  He's an average OL right now at this point in his career going into year 3.   

Personally, I don't think we're going to draft Sewell.  I think the organization has belief in Pollack and that he can turn a pile of crap into an average line.   I'll see it when i believe it. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-26-2021, 03:00 PM)TJ528 Wrote: I can't say we're in improved by a large margin.  They've added some nice pieces but I personally dont think Hendrickson replacing Lawson is that big of an upgrade...we've improved in the defensive back field.  The defense still lacks depth and needs help on the DL.  The LB are young and definitely needs more depth as well.  Any injuries to this defensive group the way it is now and we'll be looking at the defense like we did last year.  I think the biggest obsticle is Lou coaching the defense but we'll have to wait and see on that.  

On offense we've add Reiff, and Pollack.  You can't rely on bringing in Sewell and starting him at RT and he instantly be an upgrade.  I mean Jonah has played 10 games in 2 years and he's still trying to get a grasp of the NFL game.  He's an average OL right now at this point in his career going into year 3.   

Personally, I don't think we're going to draft Sewell.  I think the organization has belief in Pollack and that he can turn a pile of crap into an average line.   I'll see it when i believe it. 

Player wise I can say I believe we have improved by a large margin. But agree in coaching besides of course Pollack and Hobby.

Also agree that they won't take Sewell now with the Dolphin's trade, think we will take Chase and be looking at OL and DL the 
next few rounds. There are lots of good OL to be had after the first, always are and we have been bad picking OL in the first 
round anyways and Sewell is no sure thing as you note.

XSF and Spain should be much improved with an entire Offseason in Pollack's scheme. We might not be that bad off. One thing
is if we did take Sewell at 5 he would be expected to start as a rookie and we wouldn't even know if he is better than Jonah or 
Reiff honestly. If Jonah is healthy he plays very good from what I have seen, by far our best OL. Reiff fits our wide zone blocking
scheme and is a solid veteran. If we do take Sewell he would be the LT pretty damn sure, rookie on Burrow's blind side isn't ideal
in my eyes regardless of the prospect.

[bengaloo]

Marvin Lewis once called pff some dumbass website lol. Zimmer has said some things too....
https://thecomeback.com/nfl/pro-football-focus-stick-stats.html

So has Bill Belechunk. Valid points
https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2018/11/19/bill-belichick-admits-his-limitations-studying-film-challenges-accuracy-of-pro-football-focus/

My point being, PFF has no clue what team improved what, because they dont really know the plays and calls on any given play and how each player may fit into a role for any given team. They can study every single player night and day of every snap 24/7 if they want, but unless they have an actual playbook from each team and know all the audibles, assignments, etc, they are really just guessing. I think pff is fun and interesting, but fans seem to really put a lot of stock in it. We lost a guy who is coming off a 5.5 sack season and gained one who is coming off a 13.5 sack season yet because pff says so, its a downgrade move? I personally cant grasp that. But that's just my opinion. I get it, its fun though, unless it makes people grumpy and pissed for no reason of course lol.

The eye test is still superior most days