Report: Burrow pushing for Bengals to draft Chase

[Shake n Blake]

(04-09-2021, 12:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: There is nobody in the NFL that consistently gets 4 seconds to throw.  There are only a couple of guys consistently get 3.  The difference between the elite OL's and bad ones is .6-.7 of a second.

Teams single covered our WR's most of last year.  Burrow was on pace to be the most blitzed QB in the league by a wide margin before he went down.  That's because defenses don't respect our WR's.  If we go three straight OL, we'll just be running at 8-9 man boxes all day and getting overwhelmed by the blitz on third and long because we have no one to keep the D from loading up the box.

Our WR corps is a lot worse than people seem to think.  Something to think about is Tate, Thomas, and Morgan(our current WR3-5) have 2 career TD's in 10 combined years of NFL experience.  That's pathetically bad.  

The problem whenever people bring this up is that they look at the average and see what they perceive to be a minuscule difference...but that time is an average.

In reality it means that the best lines offered the following times on passes:

Team A:
3 seconds
2 seconds
3 seconds
5 seconds
3 seconds

While the bad line offered these times:

Team B for Bengals:
2 seconds
4 seconds
2 seconds
3 seconds
2 seconds

---------

The average time difference here would be 0.6 seconds...but what if we say those 2 second times were all sacks or blown up plays? Team A only had one of those, while team B had 3 of them. What if the 5 second time was a big play down field? Team A had one, while team B couldn't get the time needed.

-----------------------------

To your second bolded point, that's exactly the thing though. We don't need a WR1. We need to fill in the back end. We also need a speed guy who can take the top off, but it doesn't have to be a 1000 yard guy. We already have 2 guys capable of producing 1000 yards. We just need speed. A Chris Henry type of player.

(04-09-2021, 02:49 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Fred, when you come at me you better come correct. Allow me to help bring you back to reality by stepping up to the chalkboard and teaching you a lesson.....

- By your rationale, Burrow by his very nature will always be sacked and injured? Literally NO ONE can protect Joey B? Or, NO ONE who isn't a top 5 pick can protect Joey B? And, the only way to keep Joey B healthy is to not allow him to throw the ball unless the Bengals use top 5 picks to protect him?

Do you always think or speak in absolutes? I hope not, because that would be stupid.

- The deep ball "BS", as you called it, is 100% REAL SHIT. Not bullshit.

As far as Higgins and the Bengals throwing over 15 yards/deep balls is concerned

Joe Burrow ranked 31st in deep ball completion % in 2020. Deep ball in the NFL is defined as "Passes thrown OVER 20 yards in the air". I said 15. The 5 yards not covered here are inconsequential as my point still stands and is validated by the charts and stats I have linked below regarding Higgins and the other WRs. Burrow also completed exactly 0% of any passes thrown over 30 yards and was a combined 14/56 on passes that traveled 20-30 yards in the air. https://www.google.com/amp/s/brickwallblitz.com/2021/02/16/the-2020-21-deep-ball-project-part-1-3/amp/

Is Joey B bad at the deep ball? Innacurate? NO. Nobody in their right mind would assert that. The line needs to give him TIME,  yes. But, the WRs need to give him a WINDOW as well. More on that after you've digested the above data, of which you clearly hadn't done much research on. Feel free to study up before responding again. Although, who am I kidding here? We both know that you won't. But, don't worry, I have much more....

BTW, the above stats were WITH AJ Green. Who takes his place? Morgan? Mike Thomas? Is Tate going deep in 2021?

As far as Higgins is concerned, here are his Nextgen Stats charts per game of every catch he made. This shows the route, where he made the catch (white), and Yac (green).

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/tee-higgins/HIG387791/season

He literally caught only 11 or 12 of his 67 catches past 15 yards from scrimmage.

Oh, and BTW, 2 of the top 20 AFC receivers for YAC for 2020 were Bengals: Gio & Boyd. http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=AFC&type=Receiving&rank=231&year=

Next Gen stats also has QB avg separation stats. AJ Green was at 1.7 SEP, which is HORRIFIC. Higgins was at 2.5 (not great) & Boyd 2.7 (not great) NONE of those numbers are even close to the #1 down field guys on most teams in the NFL. Those numbers are poor. Especially Green. He might as well of been walking in 2020.

^ MOST Top end #1 WRs are above 3. Hopkins is 3.1, Diggs 3, Adams 3.2, Lockett 3.4, Renfrow 3.5. Julio Jones is an exception at 2.7.... still blowing away AJ & better than Higgins.

Feel free to check the data out https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#yards

Literally EVERY metric and piece of data available shows the Bengals WRs got some of the WORST separation on ANY completed ball last year. I would hate to see the incompletion stats. YIKES. this does not help out Burrow at all and shows the Bengals need a #1 monster WR.

How did our time to throw stat rank? If we had less time to throw than most teams, wouldn't that have a major impact on our average separation?

Less time to throw = less time to run = less separation.

[PDub80]

(04-09-2021, 05:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The problem whenever people bring this up is that they look at the average and see what they perceive to be a minuscule difference...but that time is an average.

In reality it means that the best lines offered the following times on passes:

Team A:
3 seconds
2 seconds
3 seconds
5 seconds
3 seconds

While the bad line offered these times:

Team B for Bengals:
2 seconds
4 seconds
2 seconds
3 seconds
2 seconds

---------

The average time difference here would be 0.6 seconds...but what if we say those 2 second times were all sacks or blown up plays? Team A only had one of those, while team B had 3 of them. What if the 5 second time was a big play down field? Team A had one, while team B couldn't get the time needed.

-----------------------------

To your second bolded point, that's exactly the thing though. We don't need a WR1. We need to fill in the back end. We also need a speed guy who can take the top off, but it doesn't have to be a 1000 yard guy. We already have 2 guys capable of producing 1000 yards. We just need speed. A Chris Henry type of player.


How did our time to throw stat rank? If we had less time to throw than most teams, wouldn't that have a major impact on our average separation?

Less time to throw = less time to run = less separation.

You are 100% correct to bring up time to throw. 100%.

The line is a critical component to all of this. No question. The debate is over the right way to solve a 3 part equation, right?

- I think the QB is set. I have no issues there personnel wise.
- The O line needs 2 new starting caliber players to have me not keeping an eye on it. 1 guy and I would think they could be good... but not great. Long term solutions need found.
- WR, IMO, is the worst off of the bunch for THIS season.

It just depends on how the Bengals attack THIS draft. That's the debate. i just see this O line class as 3 rounds deep EASILY.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(04-09-2021, 12:59 PM)PDub80 Wrote: I think he has Trent Williams written all over him. He graded just under Sewell in PFF grades year before last.

Slater is Jonah Williams 2.0. I, personally, think Williams is better suited INSIDE or at RT. He isn't big enough or long enough for LT. He got his ass handed to him a lot last year and I got sick of watching him just whiff.

Other than Sewell, what OT or O line prospects do you like?

I think his footwork is really slow, he doesn’t play to the whistle, doesn’t climb to the next level very fast. Kinda looks like he gets lost when he does.

Honestly, if we’re trading back for O line I’d take Slater or Vera Tucker or even Samuel cosmi.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-09-2021, 05:52 PM)PDub80 Wrote: You are 100% correct to bring up time to throw. 100%.

The line is a critical component to all of this. No question. The debate is over the right way to solve a 3 part equation, right?

- I think the QB is set. I have no issues there personnel wise.
- The O line needs 2 new starting caliber players to have me not keeping an eye on it. 1 guy and I would think they could be good... but not great. Long term solutions need found.
- WR, IMO, is the worst off of the bunch for THIS season.

It just depends on how the Bengals attack THIS draft. That's the debate. i just see this O line class as 3 rounds deep EASILY.

I think this whole debate boils down to perception. Some people see the line as a huge issue. Both with lack of interior talent, questions around Jonah, and Reiff being on a 1 year deal. Most of these people also see the big rookie season from Higgins, Boyd being productive, and don't see a huge issue there besides needing depth and speed. Both Higgins and Boyd are locked up for awhile, as well.

Others just aren't sold on Higgins, I guess. He didn't have sexy combine numbers. Our deep ball numbers weren't good (although I attribute that more to Burrow being "off" and lack of protection than anything else). And I can't help the feeling that some are probably being swayed by (A) the thought of teaming Burrow up with his LSU teammate and (B) the season Jefferson just had.

-----

When I analyze ALL the factors, I think Sewell is the better option:

1) The lack of talent on the line.
2) Health questions with Jonah.
3) Reiff being on a 1 year deal.
4) If we only have 3 WRs with anywhere near 100 targets, then we have 2 plus players out of 3 spots (we're probably at 2 good players on the line, out of 5)

------------------

Assuming the draft is anywhere near equal, then lineman is the slam dunk choice. People keep saying it's a thin WR draft, but I see plenty of reports that say the opposite:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2021-nfl-draft-its-another-deep-wr-class-will-the-eagles-take-one-and-when/ar-BB1ftQCN

Quote:One year later, the 2021 wide receiver class appears to be at least as good and at least as deep as last year.

“I think it’s better,” NFL Network draft analyst Ben Fennell said. “I think there’s better talent at the top. I think there’s more Day 2 starters. And I think there’s more immediate Day 3 contributors and role players.”

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2021/4/9/22375647/nfl-draft-2021-wide-receivers-top-20-jamarr-chase-devonta-smith-jaylen-waddle-rashod-bateman-wr-bgn

Quote:This wide receiver class follows the trend of deep, talented groups of pass catchers to come out in the last year.

https://ramblinfan.com/2021/02/20/what-are-the-deepest-positions-in-the-2021-nfl-draft/

Quote:2021 Draft depth

We tackled the topic before, using both our own draft expert John Vogel’s Big Board as well as The Draft Network’s own big board.  You can find those results in this article. But time passes, scouting reports are updated, so what changes have occurred? Well, revisiting The Draft Network’s prospect ranking shows a shift of sorts:

1. Position                                                 # in top 200 (Feb 2021)             (Jan 2021)
   Offense –                                                   100                                                         103
   Wide receiver –                                           35                                                            32
   Offensive tackle –                                      19                                                            18
   Interior Offensive linemen –                  16                                                            20
   Quarterback –                                                9                                                               6
   Running back –                                           14                                                            15
   Tight End –                                                     7                                                             12
   

1. Defense                                                       100                                                             97
   Cornerback                                                    27                                                            20
   Interior Defensive linemen                      14                                                            18
   Edge rushers                                                 27                                                            24
   Linebacker                                                     15                                                             15
   Safety                                                              17                                                             20
   

Using this information, we can see that the two areas that the LA Rams chose to address in the 2020 NFL Draft that generated mild confusion – tight end and safety – are two positions that are very light indeed in the 2021 NFL Draft. Meanwhile, some areas of need such as linebacker, cornerback, Edge rushers, and offensive tackles seem to be in ample supply.  Of course, each NFL team has scouted prospects and has their own ‘Big Board’ of players who they feel are valued for their perceived fit.

But wouldn’t it be nice to get a second opinion? Thanks to Yahoo Sports Eric Edholm, we have a sense of the deep positions and the shallow ones. Let’s see how we line up.  According to Yahoo Sports, the 2021 NFL Draft’s strongest to weakest positions are as follows:
1 –  WR
2 –  Edge rusher
3 –  OT
4 –  CB
5 –  QB
6 –  LB
7 –  IOL
8 –  S
9 –  RB
10- TE
11 – IDL

[PDub80]

(04-09-2021, 06:16 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: I think this whole debate boils down to perception. Some people see the line as a huge issue. Both with lack of interior talent, questions around Jonah, and Reiff being on a 1 year deal. Most of these people also see the big rookie season from Higgins, Boyd being productive, and don't see a huge issue there besides needing depth and speed. Both Higgins and Boyd are locked up for awhile, as well.

Others just aren't sold on Higgins, I guess. He didn't have sexy combine numbers. Our deep ball numbers weren't good (although I attribute that more to Burrow being "off" and lack of protection than anything else). And I can't help the feeling that some are probably being swayed by (A) the thought of teaming Burrow up with his LSU teammate and (B) the season Jefferson just had.

-----

When I analyze ALL the factors, I think Sewell is the better option:

1) The lack of talent on the line.
2) Health questions with Jonah.
3) Reiff being on a 1 year deal.
4) If we only have 3 WRs with anywhere near 100 targets, then we have 2 plus players out of 3 spots (we're probably at 2 good players on the line, out of 5)

------------------

Assuming the draft is anywhere near equal, then lineman is the slam dunk choice. People keep saying it's a thin WR draft, but I see plenty of reports that say the opposite:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/2021-nfl-draft-its-another-deep-wr-class-will-the-eagles-take-one-and-when/ar-BB1ftQCN



https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2021/4/9/22375647/nfl-draft-2021-wide-receivers-top-20-jamarr-chase-devonta-smith-jaylen-waddle-rashod-bateman-wr-bgn



https://ramblinfan.com/2021/02/20/what-are-the-deepest-positions-in-the-2021-nfl-draft/

See, I look at the WRs and see a bunch of little slot guys and punt returners.

This is why it's exciting! All I want is for the Bengals to get an elite level guy at 5 and then do what makes sense from there. If it is O line, great. If Chase/Pitts, great.

No more projects. No more injured guys. No more draft on what they COULD be. In round 1, draft what someone is... ELITE talent. And I'll be thrilled.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-09-2021, 06:35 PM)PDub80 Wrote: See, I look at the WRs and see a bunch of little slot guys and punt returners.

This is why it's exciting! All I want is for the Bengals to get an elite level guy at 5 and then do what makes sense from there. If it is O line, great. If Chase/Pitts, great.

No more projects. No more injured guys. No more draft on what they COULD be. In round 1, draft what someone is... ELITE talent. And I'll be thrilled.

I can definitely say we're getting an elite player at 5...which is awesome.

Will I be happy if we take Chase? I guess I won't hate the player we'd be getting. Chase is an awesome prospect. I won't throw my remote at the TV or anything. I'd just hate passing on an equally awesome prospect at a position that has held this team back for a whopping 5 years (o-line in general), for what feels like a luxury pick. That's the part I can't get past.

Will I hate on Chase if we pick him? Absolutely not. Is there another way to fix the o-line? Maybe, but it's way more risky than the sure-fire stud that's probably falling in our laps. I'll keep my mind as open as I can, but I'll always feel like there's an obvious choice here, and it's not the WR.

TL/DR: I'm not budging here. Agree to disagree, sort of.

[fredtoast]

(04-09-2021, 05:20 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Fred, you love Andy Dalton and are sad Black Jesus is gone. You hate the new guys. We all get it.

I was not the one who said Burrow was not accurate on deep passes.

I was just posting a direct quote from the  article YOU posted on deep ball accuracy.

What the hell does this have to do with Dalton or Lewis?

[fredtoast]

(04-09-2021, 05:12 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Do you really need me to pull up all of the guys 3 & above? You found 10 guys out of 64 starting WRs.

Yeah, let's talk about all the WRs with the best "separation" numbers.  There are 22 that averaged 3.5 or better. Not a single ne of them had 1000 yards.  Only 2 of the 22 had over 700 yards.

Doesn't look like that stat has much of anything to do with finding out which receivers are the best.

[PDub80]

(04-09-2021, 06:59 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I was not the one who said Burrow was not accurate on deep passes.

I was just posting a direct quote from the  article YOU posted on deep ball accuracy.

What the hell does this have to do with Dalton or Lewis?

I've pointed out why and how you took that quote far out of context. You doing so also was an attempt to just deflect the rest of the entire deconstruction I made of you trying to call my statements BS.

It wasn't lost on me that you just couldn't rebuttle what I wrote logically as a whole, so you just, in typical Fred fashion, latched onto whatever you could to micro the discussion.

I brought up Dalton and Marvin just to remind everyone how trash your opinion of what the Bengals should do is. If you had your way, Marvin & Andy would still be here. Your way and the things you think the Bengals should do sucks. We should all keep that in mind when reading your posts.

BTW, do you at least find it nice that I give you the courtesy to address and rebutted each of your points and questions... typically in order? I think that's nice of me. I do it because it's easy. Why don't you do that more often? You know, be a nice guy and have something you add besides argumentative conjecture.

You gave me "BS" and I, in return, gave you pages and pages of data, charts, and stats. And all you could manage to come up with in return was to grasp onto 3 sentences from 1 article, take them out of context, and then ignore that you did so when it's pointed out to you? Sad. Sad. Sad. Sad. Sad AF, actually.

[Murdock2420]

(04-09-2021, 02:42 PM)BobJohnson55 Wrote: I think your issue here is you love every receiver you come across. Some of them names are just eww to me. Like Bateman and armon st brown. 

Also there have been shorter receivers,but after the ross pick I'd be very concerned.  I'd rather draft someone 6ft and up for now on. I like dynami brown and Wallace, but would the bengals actually draft either of them. 

I like a wide range of receivers that is for sure but they is because a wide range of receivers can succeed in the NFL.

Think about when we had Chad, TJ and Henry. Three different play styles and builds and route trees and all 3 added a demention to the offense. Variety in your WR Corp and getting the most out of each creates tons of issues for the defense. 

[Murdock2420]

(04-09-2021, 04:17 PM)PDub80 Wrote: Even though (at the moment) we disagree (I see the gap between Chase/Pitts & whatever WRs are there in 2 much greater than the gap between Sewell & the O linemen in 2) I love that you took the time to write that and share your thoughts. You make some great points and gave me some new names to checkout for sure.

With 3 weeks until the draft, I am all about fluidity and the ability to change my mind.

My rebuttal to the note on Chase being 6' is that he has a very big/strong frame for that height (207lbs) where some of the other draftees are really slight of frame. I think guys like that are a wicked handful for NFL DBs because Chase is super physical and beats the jam hard. He reminds me of a bigger, faster, stronger Steve Smith.

I think Bateman is an interesting prospect for sure. If I had to gamble. I would take the outside bet that Mashall goes before Waddle. I think he ran too good to be there in the 2nd, unfortunately.

The bright side for the Bengals is there isn't a bad choice. Pitts, Sewell or Chase any of the three is an instant upgrade.

I was all in on team Sewell and still lean that way but I am definitely on the fence between him and Pitts as Pitts is just such a unique weapon. 

Plenty of options and plenty of ways to go. The sad part is this shows how bad the roster is overall for talent.

[fredtoast]

(04-09-2021, 07:16 PM)PDub80 Wrote: And all you could manage to come up with in return was to grasp onto 3 sentences from 1 article, take them out of context, and then ignore that you did so when it's pointed out to you? Sad. Sad. Sad. Sad. Sad AF, actually.

I did not take anything out of context.

To prove me wrong post the entire quote about why Burrow was ranked 31st in deep ball accuracy and point out exactly where it says that Burrow is accurate on deep throws.

You know, the way I proved that you cherry picked 4 WRs to try and make the "separation" stat look like a good tool to measure good WRs.  Instead of just claiming you took them out of context and making a lot of lame personal attacks I actually quoted direct stats to prove how wrong you were.  I showed how lots of excellent receivers had separation stats worse than or only slightly better than Bof anf Higgins.  then I showed how there were no top WRs in the top 22 of the separation stats 


It is much more effective to show specific examples to prove the lack of context than just claim something is out of context and add personal insults.

[PDub80]

(04-09-2021, 07:30 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The bright side for the Bengals is there isn't a bad choice. Pitts, Sewell or Chase any of the three is an instant upgrade.

I was all in on team Sewell and still lean that way but I am definitely on the fence between him and Pitts as Pitts is just such a unique weapon. 

Plenty of options and plenty of ways to go. The sad part is this shows how bad the roster is overall for talent.

I agree!

[bengalsboy]

(03-26-2021, 08:57 AM)Big Boss Wrote: I'm not sure I believe that he's "pushing" for them to do this, considering it's entirely out of his and the team's hands.  The only way they'd be sure to grab Chase is if they traded up to #2.  Otherwise, seems silly to "push" for someone when there are three other teams picking ahead of you that could just as easily take your guy.

I suspect it's more along the lines of "If he's there, I'd love to have him."

It's looking like qb's will go 1234 in this draft.Leaving the Bengals with any player they want ,other than a qb.

[impactplaya]

Looking at the offseason movements on offense it certainally
Seems like the Bengals could be addressing a bigtime target in RD 1

WR /TE. Green, Ross, Erickson left as FAs.No.WRs signed other than Thomas No.TEs signed in FA Walters new WR coach.

Oline. Hart released. OG Spain resigned. Reiff signed.
Pollack new Oline coach.
I think its Pitts or Chase.considering.their has been very little additions or none at between the WR/TE group

[Murdock2420]

(04-09-2021, 09:04 PM)bengalsboy Wrote: It's looking like qb's will go 1234 in this draft.Leaving the Bengals with any player they want ,other than a qb.

All I know is this, if Atlanta takes Pitts and Washington really wants to "unload all their picks for Lance" I'm completely okay moving back to their spot just based on the draft capital alone and ability to move back up.

https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2021/4/9/22375793/nfl-draft-rumor-washington-may-unload-all-their-picks-for-trey-lance-falcons-quarterback

[Murdock2420]

(04-09-2021, 09:43 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Looking at the offseason movements on offense it certainally
Seems like the Bengals could be addressing a bigtime target in RD 1

WR /TE.  Green, Ross, Erickson left as FAs.No.WRs signed other than  Thomas  No.TEs signed in FA Walters new WR coach.

Oline. Hart released. OG Spain resigned. Reiff signed. Pollack new
Oline coach.
I think its Pitts or Chase.considering.their has been very little additions or none at between the WR/TE group

I don't think they are worried about the TE group as much as we all are. I think they'll add someone eventually, but they are all in on Sample, and they have C.J. under contract still.

Also Shreck is still under contract and there is several FA's left out there that could be had after draft to fill in roster holes, including Eifert.

I think it comes down to Chase v Sewell. 

[impactplaya]

(04-09-2021, 09:47 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I don't think they are worried about the TE group as much as we all are. I think they'll add someone eventually, but they are all in on Sample, and they have C.J. under contract still.

Also Shreck is still under contract and there is several FA's left out there that could be had after draft to fill in roster holes, including Eifert.

I think it comes down to Chase v Sewell. 

I.dont understand how this front office and ZT continue
To think the TE group is good enough to go into battle with
CJ is coming off a torn achilles and Sample is who he is
Shreck lets be real he just isnt good enough make plays
 The TE position has evolved but the ZT offensive philosophy
Hasnt. Right if your a free agent TE the reasons are valid
You simply arent effective anymore 
The better your TE is at moving the chains 
The better your offense is. 

[sloSTI]

Washington cut Moss, wonder if Bengals potentially get him since he's familiar with Burrow.

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2021/04/09/bengals-target-joe-burrow-teammate-thaddeus-moss-waived/

[BobJohnson55]

(04-10-2021, 12:33 AM)sloSTI Wrote: Washington cut Moss, wonder if Bengals potentially get him since he's familiar with Burrow.

https://bengalswire.usatoday.com/2021/04/09/bengals-target-joe-burrow-teammate-thaddeus-moss-waived/

We should jump on that