Report: Burrow pushing for Bengals to draft Chase

[Whatever]

(04-09-2021, 12:21 PM)bengals67 Wrote: Chase and Pitts are great prospects but I will never change my opinion that throwing a lot of capital into the o line is way more important that adding a possible superstar WR.

Drafting Pitts or Chase might have made sense if they had spent more money on one of the top level free agent o linemen. The guy we signed is better than Hart but he is not a long term solution and is on the downhill side of his career. He is not a top 10 OT. Maybe not a top 15 OT.

Wouldn't it be nice for the Bengals to have a dominant o line. If the Steelers and the Ravens had to worry about Mixon getting over 4 yards a clip and possibly breaking a long one, how much more effective does this make Burrow in his passing game and having time to go through his progressions?

How much better do the WRs look if Burrow is regularly getting 4 seconds to survey the field and they have single coverage because the D is loading the box to stop the run?

Munoz and Lapham both want Sewell. I trust their judgment, particularly our greatest player in team history.

(04-09-2021, 12:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: There is nobody in the NFL that consistently gets 4 seconds to throw.  There are only a couple of guys consistently get 3.  The difference between the elite OL's and bad ones is .6-.7 of a second.

Teams single covered our WR's most of last year.  Burrow was on pace to be the most blitzed QB in the league by a wide margin before he went down.  That's because defenses don't respect our WR's.  If we go three straight OL, we'll just be running at 8-9 man boxes all day and getting overwhelmed by the blitz on third and long because we have no one to keep the D from loading up the box.

Our WR corps is a lot worse than people seem to think.  Something to think about is Tate, Thomas, and Morgan(our current WR3-5) have 2 career TD's in 10 combined years of NFL experience.  That's pathetically bad.  

(04-11-2021, 08:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It isn't absurd to consider Chase. It's also not absurd to consider letting our rookie WR who just had 900+ yards grow into the role of top guy before deciding he's incapable after 1 year.


1. Who said that our QB should consistently get 4 seconds every play? Strawman right there. What I'm saying is that a better line is more consistent at not allowing blown up plays, as well as more consistent at allowing enough time for big plays to develop.

2. The guy you're referring to (Chase Claypool) was the 49th overall pick in the 2nd round. He was 3rd in targets among Steelers WR's last year. That's exactly the type of production we need, so maybe we should copy the Steelers and take a speed guy in the 2nd. 

3. Reiff has moved around before though, so I take him at his word. As far as the drop off, anything is within the realm of possibility. Is it likely that Reiff - who has played RG before - will be worse at that spot than Alex Redmond? Nope, and you know it. It's not like he'd even be shifting to a different side.

Sewell played RT in high school. So he's familiar with the spot. Fwiw, I've never seen such a lengthy discussion about an o-lineman changing spots. Yes, it's an adjustment. Yeah some guys see some drop off...but it's not the gargantuan and ominous task you're making it out to be.

4. I'm not saying we don't need a speed guy opposite Higgins. We do. I just know Dalton started his career with solid numbers on deep throws, and that tailed off in a major way when the line fell apart (which started in 2016)...even with a prime AJ Green on the outside. That only continued under Burrow. This is a big reason why I believe the line will be more integral than speed WR...even though I do see a speed guy as a need.

5. Teams don't like locking themselves into need over BPA. That's more how fans think. If there is any player who is far more talented than the best need player, that team is 99% going to take the way more talented player. If we take Sewell, and the top WR in round 2 has a 3rd round grade, we're (hopefully) not going to reach.

So it makes more sense to wait for the position that is deeper throughout the draft, than the one that has the most talent graded as 1st-2nd rounders.



Tbh, I made a sweeping generalization in that post that can't be proven and was kinda silly. That said, what you say here is equally ridiculous. There are posters who hyped Binns and want Chase, and guys who didn't hype Binns etc, and don't want Chase, either. I was all aboard the John Ross train the year we took him, but I'm a Sewell guy this year.

It's a different era than 4-5 years ago? Why? Because the last couple SB winners had a lot of weapons? Seems kinda silly to say the league has changed based on the last couple years. New England wasn't loaded with weapons when they won in 2019 or 2017. Nor were the Eagles in 2018. We're basing all of this on the last 2 seasons??

It's not elite, but maybe we should give Higgins some time to grow before declaring him incapable of being WR1?

1.Quoted above is the point you jumped in and started debating.  There's no strawmanning on my part, though you continue to try and debate the point.

2.Problem is, last year was considered a generational type WR class.  The WR's that went in 2 are guys that would go in the first in any other class.  Claypool put up measurables that rival Calvin Johnson, and he fell to the middle of the 2nd.  That's how stacked it was.  This year, it's OL that's stacked.  There will be OL in 2 that would be 1st rounders in other classes, not WR's.  Besides which, I thought you didn't want to be locked into one position group in 2.

3.Reiff played G in college.  Sewell played RT in high school.  NFL caliber players can get away with technique issues at lower levels that they can't against the elite in the NFL.  Sewell was 6'4", 319 in high school.  With that size and his feet, it doesn't matter if he starts his pass set with the wrong foot or leads with the wrong hand.  No high school kid can physically match up to him.  There have been multiple quotes from former NFL players that switching positions/sides isn't a simple matter at the NFL level in this thread, but if they don't give you pause, there's nothing I can say that will.

4.AJ was on pace for a career high in 40+ yard catches in '16, with 6 in 10 games.  I think you mean '17.  Hard to say in this period due to AJ losing a step with his consistent injuries.  Andy was good with deep throws to the middle of the field, post routes especially, but was terrible on the sidelines.  The OL falling apart definitely hurt them, but the injury in '16 was also the beginning of the end for AJ.

5.Which is why you can make a big argument for Chase at 5.  With the OL class being so deep, it's much more likely you can get a good value on an OL in 2 than a WR.  Smart GM's try to put themselves in situations where team needs intersect with BPA.  

Philly had an All Pro TE in Ertz.  Plus, they had the #4 defense.  Just winning the SB with a backup QB makes them an extreme anomaly.  I love how the Pats have been trashed on these boards for years for cheating, but they are the go to now for people that want to argue that you don't need elite WR's.  Burrow isn't Brady, Taylor isn't Bellicheat, we don't have their defense, and we don't cheat like they do.  2 seasons is more than enough for trends to start in the NFL.  

Maybe we should give MJ, Adeniji, and Johnson another year to see if they can develop into quality starters.  No?  Thought not.  Higgins had trouble getting open when he was facing #2-#3 CB's.  What's he going to do when Cleveland sticks Denzel Ward on him like they did AJ last year?  Besides which, 3 of the final 4 teams last year had multiple All Pro weapons in the passing game.  If Higgins makes that leap, who's the other guy?  

[*Synric*]

(04-11-2021, 01:16 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Yeah, we get too caught up on "our guy" around here. I guess I really don't have "a guy" that why I'm looking forward to whomever we draft.

I do think Darrisaw and D. Smith might turn out to be the best OT, WR in this draft but In understand #5OA is probably too early for either.

I think those accusing the board of an "Oline or bust" mentality need to take a step back and look at themselves.

IMO we've "got" to get a #3WR and 1 Starter quality player on each line. 

Hell Auden Tate gave us in 2019 what AJ did in 2020. 

Alot of glossing over the fact the Bengals had one of if not the worst pass rush in the NFL.

I see a ton of options in the first 3 rounds for the Bengals. Two Guys I really like in round 3 for the Bengals is Ihmir Smith-Marsette perfect fit at the Z and Payton Turner an edge with a ton of upside that can start in a rotation. #38 kinda looks like a sweet spot for Offensive line with Landon Dickerson, Samuel Cosmi, Alex Leatherwood, Dillon Radunz, Creed Humphry, etc...

The only thing I'm having a hard time imagining is a good fit for WR being there at #38. I don't believe those boundary guys will be there but theres a solid possibility one of the Edge Rushers could slide.

[PDub80]

(04-11-2021, 10:09 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Another side note about Guy Fieri:  He's a really good dude, and I think a lot of people should feel a little bit bad for shitting on him so much.

I remember a few back there were a couple videos floating around on youtube where he was the brunt of the joke, and it seemed like the internet would rip on him at every opportunity.  But I think if people really look into the guy they'll realize he's one of the few celebrities that is deserving of a lot of support.

He helped raise a ton of money for small businesses this year.  And he's got a history of helping out restaurant workers and acts of charity.  Plus, it sounds like pretty much anyone who's been featured on his show or has worked with him loves him.

I know it sounds like I'm the president of Guy Fieri fanclub right now, but I've read a few things in the last year or so that made me feel like kind of an asshole for judging him.  I always just assumed he was douche because of the look and didn't really put much thought into it other than that.  Turns out, I was the douche for thinking that way.  That dude rocks.

I think the look is just for TV. I love great stories and good people like that. I appreciate the post and I will try the restaurant next time I'm down that way!

[Whatever]

(04-11-2021, 08:47 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: The funny thing is when you see a fan's mock draft with zero to little attention for WRs or TEs.

Like our TEs are fine and the WRs are good for depth.

I get that our QB needs some O-line help, but having a draft with all O-line and some DTs/DEs/S/CB  makes me wonder what people are thinking.

I see a lot of people talking about what's going to happen if one of our OL gets hurt.

I don't see anybody talking about what happens if Tee or Boyd gets hurt.

Burrow was on pace to be the most blitzed QB in the league last year, and that was with Boyd and Higgins.  Talk about blood in the water for DC's.

[Destro]

Watch the Bengals draft a RB and the server suffers a meltdown.

[fredtoast]

(04-11-2021, 10:32 PM)Whatever Wrote: Maybe we should give MJ, Adeniji, and Johnson another year to see if they can develop into quality starters.  No?  Thought not.  Higgins had trouble getting open when he was facing #2-#3 CB's. 

OMG this is hilarious.  you are actually comparing Higgins to MJ, Adeniji, and Johgnson?

Among the 35 WRs with at least 100 targets last year Higgins ranked 12th in yards per reception (13.6) and17th in yards per target (8.4).  He was 18th among all WRs in reception of 20+ yards (14) despite basically playing only 14 games.

You talk about Zac Ertz being a Pro Bowl TE for the Super Bowl eagles but what did he do as a rookie? 469 receiving yards and 4 tds.

You talk about all the offensive weapons the Conference Championship teams had on at receiver last year, but look at their receiving numbers their rookie seasons compared to Higgins

Higgins................67 rec, 908 yds
Mike Evans...........68 rec, 1052 yds
Tyreke Hill............61 rec, 593 yds
DeVante Adams....38 rec, 446 yds
Stefon Diggs........52 rec, 720 yds

[CoachGeorge]

(04-11-2021, 08:37 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Sewell played RT in high school. So he's familiar with the spot. Fwiw, I've never seen such a lengthy discussion about an o-lineman changing spots. Yes, it's an adjustment. Yeah some guys see some drop off...but it's not the gargantuan and ominous task you're making it out to be.

As far as I know, Sewell played guard exclusively in HS. Was an all-state at guard and came to Oregon as a 4**** guard. The main reason he was playing guard is because he was seriously overweight. He came to Oregon at 350 pounds but I’m told he was much more in early HS.

At Oregon, HC Mario Christobal (a former LT and Bama offensive line coach saw he had become something way more and moved him to LT early in fall practice. The rest is history.

[DYT_Bengal]

I understand we need a 3rd WR but the forums are being overly-critical. Toney or Marshall do not fill the WR need the Bengals have. Boyd is a slot, Higgins is a WR2 who can be WR1 for many teams. Chase would easily place the Bengals WR corps in the top ten. Marshall or Toney would be a substitute for Boyd. I am not a fan of messing with this equation.

I still like Rundaz or Brown in the second. If anything, we should actually trade up to around pick 28 depending who is available - last years draft proves that teams don’t require significant draft capital to trade out of the first (see Ravens trade) or second.

Reiff will be ok, but an elite OT might be overrated. Chase is the perfect WR for Burrow and is in the same vein as Higgins - chemistry and versatility. The Ruggs, Waddles of the world - Nope.

Boundary WR don’t leave top ten, you see a lot of RT make it to 15-16 which is where I expect us to pick next year.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-11-2021, 10:32 PM)Whatever Wrote: 1.Quoted above is the point you jumped in and started debating.  There's no strawmanning on my part, though you continue to try and debate the point.

2.Problem is, last year was considered a generational type WR class.  The WR's that went in 2 are guys that would go in the first in any other class.  Claypool put up measurables that rival Calvin Johnson, and he fell to the middle of the 2nd.  That's how stacked it was.  This year, it's OL that's stacked.  There will be OL in 2 that would be 1st rounders in other classes, not WR's.  Besides which, I thought you didn't want to be locked into one position group in 2.

3.Reiff played G in college.  Sewell played RT in high school.  NFL caliber players can get away with technique issues at lower levels that they can't against the elite in the NFL.  Sewell was 6'4", 319 in high school.  With that size and his feet, it doesn't matter if he starts his pass set with the wrong foot or leads with the wrong hand.  No high school kid can physically match up to him.  There have been multiple quotes from former NFL players that switching positions/sides isn't a simple matter at the NFL level in this thread, but if they don't give you pause, there's nothing I can say that will.

4.AJ was on pace for a career high in 40+ yard catches in '16, with 6 in 10 games.  I think you mean '17.  Hard to say in this period due to AJ losing a step with his consistent injuries.  Andy was good with deep throws to the middle of the field, post routes especially, but was terrible on the sidelines.  The OL falling apart definitely hurt them, but the injury in '16 was also the beginning of the end for AJ.

5.Which is why you can make a big argument for Chase at 5.  With the OL class being so deep, it's much more likely you can get a good value on an OL in 2 than a WR.  Smart GM's try to put themselves in situations where team needs intersect with BPA.  

Philly had an All Pro TE in Ertz.  Plus, they had the #4 defense.  Just winning the SB with a backup QB makes them an extreme anomaly.  I love how the Pats have been trashed on these boards for years for cheating, but they are the go to now for people that want to argue that you don't need elite WR's.  Burrow isn't Brady, Taylor isn't Bellicheat, we don't have their defense, and we don't cheat like they do.  2 seasons is more than enough for trends to start in the NFL.  

Maybe we should give MJ, Adeniji, and Johnson another year to see if they can develop into quality starters.  No?  Thought not.  Higgins had trouble getting open when he was facing #2-#3 CB's.  What's he going to do when Cleveland sticks Denzel Ward on him like they did AJ last year?  Besides which, 3 of the final 4 teams last year had multiple All Pro weapons in the passing game.  If Higgins makes that leap, who's the other guy?  

1. I see. So you're arguing against a careless statement made by Bengals67? Just because he was technically incorrect about any QB "always" getting 4 seconds, it seems kinda petty to focus on "always" to ignore the validity of the overall point.

2. I don't want to be locked in, but we don't have to take a guy in the 2nd. I was being facetious when I said that. My point was that the Steelers clearly didn't view WR3 (based on targets) to be such a dire need that they burned a 1st on it...let alone the 5th overall pick...and our duo of Higgins/Boyd is every bit as good as their duo of Johnson/Schuster was/is. They probably only took the guy because he fell to them, as you point out.

As for that draft class, there are many who view this WR class in a similar light:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase

Quote:The more I look at the 2021 wide receiver class, the more the parallels with last year's group leap out. This year's crop of pass-catchers once again includes two first-round stars from Alabama who are stylistically very different, and they are vying with a stud from another powerhouse blue-blood college program to be seen as the best receiver in April's draft.

The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available.

I could list more if you want, but we all love PFF, right?

3. Guys only punch with the wrong hand, etc if they switch sides. That wouldn't be an issue with Reiff if we played him at LG. Although he's switched sides in his NFL career successfully before. For every coach who says "it's not as easy as people think", I can list 5 players who switched successfully. It's not guaranteed to work out, but - again - you're making it seem far more dubious than it actually is.

I have little doubt that someone as talented and hard working as Sewell could switch sides.

4. No, I meant 2016...because that's when the line fell off...along with Andy's deep ball numbers. I remember because Andy's deep passing was a constant debate on here and I always had to look up the numbers. Unfortunately, my source for deep stats (ESPN) removed them, I guess. But I remember Dalton's deep stat decline coincided with the fall of the o-line.

Fwiw, AJ Green played 35 games between 2016 to 2018, and was still an elite player when he played.

5. What? No. The WR class is overall deeper than the overall OL class. Yes, you try to get need and value to intersect, but it doesn't always work out that way. A smart GM would know this. You can't plan for what the other 31 teams will do on draft day. One run on o-lineman (for example) would throw a giant wrench in your plans.

------------

I knew you'd bring up TE's or RB's. We're talking WR's here. You even mentioned WR's specifically when you were talking about Brady, and the current "era". You weren't talking about TE's or defense, or any other position...and even if you were, the argument here isn't to draft Pitts...is it?

I'll just ignore the rest. You seem like you're getting frustrated, bringing up stuff about the Pats cheating, etc...as if that has anything to do with our debate.

This feels like it could go on forever, so I'm going to do you a favor and bow out. Have a good night dude, no hard feelings. Good debate.

[*bfine32*]

(04-12-2021, 12:21 AM)willieFANderson Wrote: I understand we need a 3rd WR but the forums are being overly-critical. Toney or Marshall do not fill the WR need the Bengals have. Boyd is a slot, Higgins is a WR2 who can be WR1 for many teams. Chase would easily place the Bengals WR corps in the top ten. Marshall or Toney would be a substitute for Boyd. I am not a fan of messing with this equation.

I still like Rundaz or Brown in the second. If anything, we should actually trade up to around pick 28 depending who is available - last years draft proves that teams don’t require significant draft capital to trade out of the first (see Ravens trade) or second.

Reiff will be ok, but an elite OT might be overrated. Chase is the perfect WR for Burrow and is in the same vein as Higgins - chemistry and versatility. The Ruggs, Waddles of the world - Nope.

Boundary WR don’t leave top ten, you see a lot of RT make it to 15-16 which is where I expect us to pick next year.

Are you saying Terrance Marshal from LSU is a slot WR? He's not a favorite of ine, but he's damn sure better suited to play on the outside.

There's plenty WRs with an early 2nd round grade that can play Z for us. Not the least of which is Nico Collins; 

[Murdock2420]

The battle rages on.

And still nothing is changing.

My last thoughts on this. If you want to succeed, you should model yourself after successful franchises. Which team has won the AFC North most in the last say 20 years?

Since 2000, the Steelers have won the division 10 times.
Since 2000, the Steelers have made the playoffs, 13 times.
Since 2000, the Steelers have drafted 1 WR in the first round. (2006, Santonio Holmes)

Think about how many years they've had WR's that our DBs just can't cover. And only 1, was from the 1st round.

Don't waste the pick. Be smart, model yourself off of successful franchises, or waste the pick and we can continue to finish 3rd or 4th in the division.


Quick Edit:

Just for fun and just to use a team people may hate less, I went and looked at Green Bay since we all like the Green Bay fan that stops by.

Since 2000, they also have used only 1 1st round pick on a WR, and that was 2002 (Javon Walker).


For us, if we take Chase, it will be 3 in 10 years. Green in 2011, Ross in 2017, Chase in 2021. 3 times as many in half the years. Not a plan for success.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-12-2021, 12:52 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The battle rages on.

And still nothing is changing.

My last thoughts on this. If you want to succeed, you should model yourself after successful franchises. Which team has won the AFC North most in the last say 20 years?

Since 2000, the Steelers have won the division 10 times.
Since 2000, the Steelers have made the playoffs, 13 times.
Since 2000, the Steelers have drafted 1 WR in the first round. (2006, Santonio Holmes)

Think about how many years they've had WR's that our DBs just can't cover. And only 1, was from the 1st round.

Don't waste the pick. Be smart, model yourself off of successful franchises, or waste the pick and we can continue to finish 3rd or 4th in the division.


Quick Edit:

Just for fun and just to use a team people may hate less, I went and looked at Green Bay since we all like the Green Bay fan that stops by.

Since 2000, they also have used only 1 1st round pick on a WR, and that was 2002 (Javon Walker).


For us, if we take Chase, it will be 3 in 10 years. Green in 2011, Ross in 2017, Chase in 2021. 3 times as many in half the years. Not a plan for success.

I’m all for modeling ourselves after the Steelers if it means increasing the size of our scouting department...

As to the bold, c’mon man. Chase would not be a “wasted pick.” This is the type of nonsense that seems to be coming from only one side of the argument. I haven’t seen anyone suggest Sewell would be a wasted pick. Why can’t we just disagree on which way they should go without completely shitting on a phenomenal player?

[Nicomo Cosca]

I wonder if the Browns signing Clowney will effect the FO’s decision at all? We’ll now have Garrett, Clowney, Watt, and Calais Campbell in our division...

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 01:21 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’m all for modeling ourselves after the Steelers if it means increasing the size of our scouting department...

As to the bold, c’mon man. Chase would not be a “wasted pick.” This is the type of nonsense that seems to be coming from only one side of the argument. I haven’t seen anyone suggest Sewell would be a wasted pick. Why can’t we just disagree on which way they should go without completely shitting on a phenomenal player?

Chase will be phenomenal.

That isn't what I meant by waste the pick. I meant this, do you want a Championship team or a phenomenal player?

Calvin Johnson was viewed as a can't miss freak of nature when the Lions drafted him top 5 in 2007

In his career with Detroit he had 2 playoff appearances. 0 wins 2 losses. 2011 loss - 12 rec 211 yards 2 TDs. Still lost.

No top 5 drafted WR has won a Super Bowl since 2000 (that's as far back as I looked) for the team that drafted him. The exception, Sammy Watkins as a 3rd receiver option on the Chiefs, years after he was drafted by the Bills and then went to the Rams, then Chiefs.


Here they all are: 

1st round WR's drafted in the top 5:

Charles Rogers - 2003 - 0 playoffs

Andre Johnson - 2003 - 2 Playoff appearances. 2 wins 2 losses. Both wins, against Cincinnati

Larry Fitzgerald - 2004 - 4 play appearances. 1 Super Bowl appearance, 5 wins 4 losses

Braylon Edwards - 2005 - 0 playoffs

Calvin Johnson - 2007 - 2 playoffs - 0 wins 2 losses. 2011 loss - 12 rec 211 yards 2 TDs. Still lost.

A.J. Green - 2011 - 4 playoffs - 0 wins 4 losses

Justin Blackmon - 2012 - 0 playoffs

Sammy Watkins - 2014 - 0 Playoffs for the Bills who drafted him. 1 with the Rams, 3 with KC. 1 Super Bowl win with KC.

Amari Cooper - 2015 - 1 playoff for Oakland, 0 wins 1 loss. With Dallas, 1 playoff, 1 win 1 loss.

Corey Davis - 2017 - 3 playoff appearances, 3 wins 3 loss. 


So, here is the trend I see from all this, and why I call it wasting a pick. Not because Chase isn't special, but look at the good teams, 1 WR taken in round one in 20 years!!??!!? Dude that speaks volume.

In that same time frame no Super Bowl wins for the guys taken top 5 as WRs. The best production was Larry Fitzgerald and people still talk about how he's wasting away in Arizona. 

These are obvious trends. And you think the Bengals will magically break this trend??? They aren't that well run of a franchise to break a trend. Already tried, took A.J. at 4... no playoff wins.

To me, I don't care about the "phenom" out there putting up big numbers here and there. I want to see a damn Super Bowl title in my lifetime. So yes, based on the information above, I think taking a WR at 5, is wasting the pick. 

Again, I'm not shitting on Chase, he will more then likely be a very good WR (I say more then likely cause anyone can bust even Sewell) but history shows you, this isn't where you get your WR if you want a Championship.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-12-2021, 01:57 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Chase will be phenomenal.

That isn't what I meant by waste the pick. I meant this, do you want a Championship team or a phenomenal player?

Calvin Johnson was viewed as a can't miss freak of nature when the Lions drafted him top 5 in 2007

In his career with Detroit he had 2 playoff appearances. 0 wins 2 losses. 2011 loss - 12 rec 211 yards 2 TDs. Still lost.

No top 5 drafted WR has won a Super Bowl since 2000 (that's as far back as I looked) for the team that drafted him. The exception, Sammy Watkins as a 3rd receiver option on the Chiefs, years after he was drafted by the Bills and then went to the Rams, then Chiefs.


Here they all are: 

1st round WR's drafted in the top 5:

Charles Rogers - 2003 - 0 playoffs

Andre Johnson - 2003 - 2 Playoff appearances. 2 wins 2 losses. Both wins, against Cincinnati

Larry Fitzgerald - 2004 - 4 play appearances. 1 Super Bowl appearance, 5 wins 4 losses

Braylon Edwards - 2005 - 0 playoffs

Calvin Johnson - 2007 - 2 playoffs - 0 wins 2 losses. 2011 loss - 12 rec 211 yards 2 TDs. Still lost.

A.J. Green - 2011 - 4 playoffs - 0 wins 4 losses

Justin Blackmon - 2012 - 0 playoffs

Sammy Watkins - 2014 - 0 Playoffs for the Bills who drafted him. 1 with the Rams, 3 with KC. 1 Super Bowl win with KC.

Amari Cooper - 2015 - 1 playoff for Oakland, 0 wins 1 loss. With Dallas, 1 playoff, 1 win 1 loss.

Corey Davis - 2017 - 3 playoff appearances, 3 wins 3 loss. 


So, here is the trend I see from all this, and why I call it wasting a pick. Not because Chase isn't special, but look at the good teams, 1 WR taken in round one in 20 years!!??!!? Dude that speaks volume.

In that same time frame no Super Bowl wins for the guys taken top 5 as WRs. The best production was Larry Fitzgerald and people still talk about how he's wasting away in Arizona. 

These are obvious trends. And you think the Bengals will magically break this trend??? They aren't that well run of a franchise to break a trend. Already tried, took A.J. at 4... no playoff wins.

To me, I don't care about the "phenom" out there putting up big numbers here and there. I want to see a damn Super Bowl title in my lifetime. So yes, based on the information above, I think taking a WR at 5, is wasting the pick. 

Again, I'm not shitting on Chase, he will more then likely be a very good WR (I say more then likely cause anyone can bust even Sewell) but history shows you, this isn't where you get your WR if you want a Championship.

You can very likely do this with almost any position though. How many top 5 OT’s have won a Super Bowl? How many top 5 QB’s? Hell, the Pats alone winning like 6 of them skews things a bit over the last 20 years or so. They were obviously never drafting that high.

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 02:09 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You can very likely do this with almost any position though. How many top 5 OT’s have won a Super Bowl? How many top 5 QB’s? Hell, the Pats alone winning like 6 of them skews things a bit over the last 20 years or so. They were obviously never drafting that high.

I'll double check, but I made it back to the 70's without a Top 5 WR being winning a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him.

That's scary.

Give me a few, I'll see what the top 5 for QBs and OT's looks like.


Edit:

Already found 2 OT's taken top 5 who won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted them.

Lane Johnson with the Eagles

Eric Fisher with the Chiefs

And I have 7 more drafts to check.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-12-2021, 02:12 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'll double check, but I made it back to the 70's without a Top 5 WR being winning a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him.

That's scary.

Give me a few, I'll see what the top 5 for QBs and OT's looks like.

Eric Fisher for OT, and Eli for QB off the top of my head.

Edit: actually Eli wouldn’t even count based on your criteria since NY didn’t draft him.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(04-12-2021, 02:15 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Eric Fisher for OT, and Eli for QB off the top of my head.

Edit: actually Eli wouldn’t even count based on your criteria since NY didn’t draft him.

Eli was drafted by the Chargers

[Murdock2420]

(04-12-2021, 02:15 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Eric Fisher for OT, and Eli for QB off the top off my head.

Yup, Lane Johnson for the Eagles as well.

And you could say Wentz.... but Foles really won that game.

What I really saw in the trends of top 5 picks. QB is of course the biggest. Then DE/OLB (guys who are rushing the passer), then next, OT guys to slow down the edge rushers.

It's just interesting to see how little success comes from certain positions high in the draft. Again, I don't doubt Chase will be successful, I just don't think he is the right fit here.

We actually had this same discussion last season. I was against Burrow, not because he wasn't talented, but because the line sucked and I told you, if we take him, we will end up breaking him. 

Well... we did. They have to just cut their losses, dump lots of attention to the OL (I like Jonah, but he can't stay healthy yet) and let this be a bad season with growing pains and let the line gel.

Then, fire Taylor, and go after targets next year when Burrow knows he has a solid wall in front of him and he is fully healed.

I know they say he'll be back week 1, but really, do we want him out there week 1? I'd start Allen and make sure Burrow is 100%. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

I’m guessing no team has ever won a Super Bowl with a top 5 TE either, but I would never let that stop me from drafting Pitts. Looking at history, trends, etc is interesting (and maybe even somewhat useful) but at the end of the day I think you need to compare these prospects to each other, and take the one you feel has the most value, and is going to make the biggest impact. That’s what I want with a top 5 pick. Not the safest, or who fills the most immediate need. If they think that’s Sewell, then great. Pull the trigger. Literally no one would be able to knock that pick. I just think it’s a lot tougher of choice than some are making it out to be. I’ve said it multiple times now, but I don’t envy Tobin one bit having to make this choice.

I do think interviews are going to be important if they have them all similarly ranked on their board. I know Chase is supposed to be an even better kid than he is a football player from everything I’ve heard about him. And Sewell’s coach made some pretty flattering comments about him recently. The guy I know the least about is Pitts, but I certainly haven’t heard anything on the negative side.