Schefter Draft Predictions - 3/31

[shanebo]

ESPN's Adam Schefter was on local Philly radio this morning talking about the draft, and he predicted that, based on what he's hearing right now, QBs will go 1-4 in the draft. Which would leave us with our choice of the top non-QBs (presumably Sewell/Chase/Pitts) if we stay at 5. AKA the "catbird seat."

BUT he also said there's a chance that the Bengals trade back and that QBs will go 1-5 ... Didn't give any specific support for this, but said that either the Panthers or Broncos were looking to get ahead of the Lions for the 5th QB (Mac Jones) and the Dolphins are done trading until draft day. As an aside, he praised the Dolphins' trade from 3 to 12 and back to 6 as "genius" because he said they had three non-QBs rated equally (presumably Pitts, Chase, and Smith?) and at least one will still be available at 6, plus they picked up an extra 1 and 3.

As of now, the Falcons are the wild card. He said they really like one QB and will take him if he's available (didn't say who), but if not they will take Sewell.

Obviously one man's opinion one month before the draft, but I found it an interesting take from someone who's pretty dialed in.

It seems our best case scenario would be if the Falcons take a QB. Then we would have the option to take our top guy at 5 OR possibly trade with Panthers/Broncos. Preferably with the Panthers at 8, as we'd be pretty much guaranteed to get one of our top three guys a la Miami (e.g., assuming our top 3 is Sewell/Pitts/Chase -- QBs go 1-5, Miami takes Pitts, Detroit takes Sewell, leaving us with Chase). Could also do Broncos at 9, but we'd have to be comfortable with the possibility of Slater/Smith/Parsons (or someone else). If the Falcons go Sewell at 4, however, our pick becomes less valuable as the Panthers could afford to wait and see if the fifth QB drops to them.

[Essex Johnson]

(03-31-2021, 11:19 AM)shanebo Wrote: ESPN's Adam Schefter was on local Philly radio this morning talking about the draft, and he predicted that, based on what he's hearing right now, QBs will go 1-4 in the draft.  Which would leave us with our choice of the top non-QBs (presumably Sewell/Chase/Pitts) if we stay at 5.  AKA the "catbird seat."

BUT he also said there's a chance that the Bengals trade back and that QBs will go 1-5 ...  Didn't give any specific support for this, but said that either the Panthers or Broncos were looking to get ahead of the Lions for the 5th QB (Mac Jones) and the Dolphins are done trading until draft day.  As an aside, he praised the Dolphins' trade from 3 to 12 and back to 6 as "genius" because he said they had three non-QBs rated equally (presumably Pitts, Chase, and Smith?) and at least one will still be available at 6, plus they picked up an extra 1 and 3.

As of now, the Falcons are the wild card.  He said they really like one QB and will take him if he's available (didn't say who), but if not they will take Sewell.  

Obviously one man's opinion one month before the draft, but I found it an interesting take from someone who's pretty dialed in.

It seems our best case scenario would be if the Falcons take a QB.  Then we would have the option to take our top guy at 5 OR possibly trade with Panthers/Broncos.  Preferably with the Panthers at 8, as we'd be pretty much guaranteed to get one of our top three guys a la Miami (e.g., assuming our top 3 is Sewell/Pitts/Chase -- QBs go 1-5, Miami takes Pitts, Detroit takes Sewell, leaving us with Chase).  Could also do Broncos at 9, but we'd have to be comfortable with the possibility of Slater/Smith/Parsons (or someone else).  If the Falcons go Sewell at 4, however, our pick becomes less valuable as the Panthers could afford to wait and see if the fifth QB drops to them.

Best case to trade back is if Falcons don;t take a QB... leaving Carolina worried about that #4 QB they might want for someone else to jump in.. I don;t see many teams jumping up for the #5 ranked QB in top 5 picks.. I don;t see Falcons taking a QB to be honest, they actually might be the team to trade back and add more to their roster...

[Whatever]

(03-31-2021, 11:27 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Best case to trade back is if Falcons don;t take a QB... leaving Carolina worried about that #4 QB they might want for someone else to jump in.. I don;t see many teams jumping up for the #5 ranked QB in top 5 picks.. I don;t see Falcons taking a QB to be honest, they actually might be the team to trade back and add more to their roster...

It makes sense for the Falcons to trade back.  They need D and there's no value at 4, plus they'd be screwing the Panthers over.  

[CJD]

If Atlanta takes Sewell, that completely clears the Bengals of any quandary about who to select nd they can just pick Chase and be thrilled about it

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-31-2021, 01:24 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: If Atlanta takes Sewell, that completely clears the Bengals of any quandary about who to select nd they can just pick Chase and be thrilled about it

It would still be an incredibly tough choice between Chase and Pitts.

[shanebo]

The Falcons are a tough call because they've been a bad team for the past three years, yet no one's really acknowledged it. I heard a Philadelphia sports commentator say the other day that a lot of teams are bad, a lot of teams are old, and a lot of teams are pricy, but only two teams are bad, old, and pricy -- Atlanta and Philly. (so yes, Bengals fans, it could be worse -- we're just bad ...) ATL could really stand to upgrade just about every position.

[CJD]

(03-31-2021, 01:35 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: It would still be an incredibly tough choice between Chase and Pitts.

Maybe. The fact that Zac was at the UF pro day today may lend credence to the idea that they're considering him. Alternatively, it may be a smoke screen.

I'd be surprised if they took Pitts at this point, just because we never seem to value TEs in Cincinnati, but he's obviously a very talented player.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-31-2021, 02:17 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Maybe. The fact that Zac was at the UF pro day today may lend credence to the idea that they're considering him. Alternatively, it may be a smoke screen.

I'd be surprised if they took Pitts at this point, just because we never seem to value TEs in Cincinnati, but he's obviously a very talented player.

We’ve taken two first round TE’s in Gresham and Eifert.

[CJD]

(03-31-2021, 02:21 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: We’ve taken two first round TE’s in Gresham and Eifert.

True. We'll see what happens.

[kalibengal]

if they take a TE that high I would be shocked
but from what im seeing in Pitts, he appears as a cant miss player. great hands, and ran a 4.4 40, at 6-6, 240? WTF??? was he created in a lab?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Don't see the Falcons going QB and think they'll just roll with Matt Ryan rather than take the 4th best QB. I think they'll go either Pitts or WR to try to recreate that Roddy White/Julio Jones/Tony Gonzalez offense.

(Not really relevant, but I found it fascinating... of the Falcons starting 11 on offense last year, 9 of them were 1st round picks. Only their FB (UDFA) and TE (4th) weren't.)

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(03-31-2021, 03:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't see the Falcons going QB and think they'll just roll with Matt Ryan rather than take the 4th best QB. I think they'll go either Pitts or WR to try to recreate that Roddy White/Julio Jones/Tony Gonzalez offense.

(Not really relevant, but I found it fascinating... of the Falcons starting 11 on offense last year, 9 of them were 1st round picks. Only their FB (UDFA) and TE (4th) weren't.)

The Falcons have huge incentive to trade down.

First, they really need D the most and there is not a top 5 talent this year on D.

Second, they have a ton of holes so more picks will be appealing to them.

Third, they are cap strapped, so trading down a bit from #4 will save them $$, even with more picks.

Fourth, if they trade with Denver ir NE, it screws Carolina over, as they need a QB.

I think the most likely scenario is they trade down with a QB needy team. Pitts has to be real tempting, though.

[WVUHomer]

(03-31-2021, 03:34 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Don't see the Falcons going QB and think they'll just roll with Matt Ryan rather than take the 4th best QB. I think they'll go either Pitts or WR to try to recreate that Roddy White/Julio Jones/Tony Gonzalez offense.

(Not really relevant, but I found it fascinating... of the Falcons starting 11 on offense last year, 9 of them were 1st round picks. Only their FB (UDFA) and TE (4th) weren't.)

 Didn't they trade for Hurst who was the Raven 1st? Did he not start for them last year?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-31-2021, 05:37 PM)WVUHomer Wrote:  Didn't they trade for Hurst who was the Raven 1st? Did he not start for them last year?

I was going by the Pro Football Reference stats on team starters. It has Luke Stocker as their starting TE (he started 13 games). Hurst started 9, so I guess they considered him not part of the starting 11? Dunno. Hurst didn't start at the beginning of the season, and he didn't start at the end of the season, so I don't know what their criteria are.

If you take out the FB and put in a 2nd TE for their starting 11, that would make 10/11.

[Essex Johnson]

(03-31-2021, 01:24 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: If Atlanta takes Sewell, that completely clears the Bengals of any quandary about who to select nd they can just pick Chase and be thrilled about it

Or Slater and get the top guard in Draft..

[Essex Johnson]

(03-31-2021, 05:35 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: The Falcons have huge incentive to trade down.

First, they really need D the most and there is not a top 5 talent this year on D.

Second, they have a ton of holes so more picks will be appealing to them.

Third, they are cap strapped, so trading down a bit from #4 will save them $$, even with more picks.

Fourth, if they trade with Denver ir NE, it screws Carolina over, as they need a QB.

I think the most likely scenario is they trade down with a QB needy team. Pitts has to be real tempting, though.

Dont the Bengals have a high incentive to trade down If Sewell is gone