Chase v Sewell

[Whatever]

(04-25-2021, 01:33 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The last two years have shown the team can not function without a good coaching staff. There has been a substandard line for 4 or 5 years now and there has been a lack of a real X for 2 years (2018 AJ was looking good and went down and started the injury train).

We need more then one draft can fix. It isn't like take OL and we are a playoff team or take Chase and we are a playoff team or even take Pitts. I'd rather draft the OL guy, let him develop under Pollack and look like a Pro Bowl player in 2022 while taking the top WR in the 2022 draft. 

There will be a Chase in 2022 and there will be a Sewell in 2022. Just like there was another Burrow this season.

It's do or die for Taylor and company this year, imo.  I can kind of give them a pass in year one, because frankly Tobin did them no favors.  I can kind of give them a pass for last year just due to the insane amount of injuries.  But excuses are like assholes.  Everybody has one.  Setbacks or not, you've gotta deliver at some point.  The win over the Titans was impressive and the MNF win over the Steelers was amazing, but a lot of other winnable games slipped through their grasp.  

I'm not into counting moral victories, but there's a lot of games last year that we probably win if we had an in his prime AJ instead of the shadow of his former self we got.  The 3 point loss to the Chargers in the opener.  5 and 3 point losses to the Browns.  The tie with the Eagles.  The 4 point loss to the Colts.  The two point loss to the Giants.  I mean, you look at the '18 season and we're 5-3 and in playoff contention.  AJ goes down and we go 1-7 the second half of the season.  I think it's overlooked just how much of a difference maker AJ was.

We do have too many holes to fill unless we get extremely lucky, snap up some post draft cuts, and some young guys step up.  That said, most playoff teams also have holes.  I personally think we have a much better chance of making the playoffs this year if we go with Chase simply because elite WR's can be such huge difference makers and he is more likely to be elite at his position as a rookie than Sewell.  If Sewell is the pick, I get it and will support him, too.  I think he will be an elite T in a few years.  Personally, with Joe on his rookie contract, I would like to be more aggressive in getting back to the playoffs.

[Murdock2420]

(04-25-2021, 02:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: It's do or die for Taylor and company this year, imo.  I can kind of give them a pass in year one, because frankly Tobin did them no favors.  I can kind of give them a pass for last year just due to the insane amount of injuries.  But excuses are like assholes.  Everybody has one.  Setbacks or not, you've gotta deliver at some point.  The win over the Titans was impressive and the MNF win over the Steelers was amazing, but a lot of other winnable games slipped through their grasp.  

I'm not into counting moral victories, but there's a lot of games last year that we probably win if we had an in his prime AJ instead of the shadow of his former self we got.  The 3 point loss to the Chargers in the opener.  5 and 3 point losses to the Browns.  The tie with the Eagles.  The 4 point loss to the Colts.  The two point loss to the Giants.  I mean, you look at the '18 season and we're 5-3 and in playoff contention.  AJ goes down and we go 1-7 the second half of the season.  I think it's overlooked just how much of a difference maker AJ was.

We do have too many holes to fill unless we get extremely lucky, snap up some post draft cuts, and some young guys step up.  That said, most playoff teams also have holes.  I personally think we have a much better chance of making the playoffs this year if we go with Chase simply because elite WR's can be such huge difference makers and he is more likely to be elite at his position as a rookie than Sewell.  If Sewell is the pick, I get it and will support him, too.  I think he will be an elite T in a few years.  Personally, with Joe on his rookie contract, I would like to be more aggressive in getting back to the playoffs.

I get what you are saying and yes injuries have hurt this team but when you look at Taylor's play calling in general I just can't predict the playoffs for this team no matter who they draft. 

Look at the Colts game where we get a lead and coach ourselves right out of the game. I look at the fact that Taylor knew he had a horrible line and yet kept dropping Burrow back to throw over and over from empty sets. No players drafted can come in and fix incompetent coaching. Throwing a deep route on 4 and inches... 

Taylor and Lou aren't good, and if they draft Chase I think Taylor will just start throwing even more then before. So when XSF and Jonah end up on IR and the line is shaky again.... Taylor will be out there just trying to air it out. That is a horrible idea for Luck.. I mean Burrow's future.

[CJD]

(04-24-2021, 08:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals NEED an X WR.  This offense doesn't function without one, as we've seen for the last two years.  Burrow had a lot of passing yards per game because we threw a lot, but he was 24th in passer rating and 25th in yards/attempt.  He had the 5th lowest expected completion % last year and threw the 3rd highest % of passes to targets with a defender within a yard of them.  His pressure/dropback % was 13th highest in the league, not good, but nowhere near as bad some think.  Out the48 sacks the Bengals gave up last year, 23 were credited to the OL. Are we just going to ignore the other 25 or seek to address them?

I respect you, but honestly, this does come off as fear mongering.  Penei Sewell does not guarantee Burrow's health next year.  Carson Palmer and Tom Brady had similar injuries behind good lines.  There's also a bunch of guys that got hit more than Burrow that didn't miss time and a bunch of guys that got hit less that did.  Folks constantly laud Pittsburgh's OL, yet Ben is always banged up.  And what's strange, injuries like Joe, Carson, and Brady had where a guy falls into the side of their plant leg almost always come up the middle, but we're going to draft Sewell and put him at RT and it will somehow prevent it from happening again.

There are 13 OL in the Top 50 prospects of this draft.  If we get jumped for an OL, there are still a bunch of other OL options.  If we get jumped for an X WR, we don't have options except try to trade back or go with another position group.  

 I really don't understand "Sewell should be the pick because I don't trust Duke Tobin" logic.  We have no control over what the Bengals would do.  We are talking about what we would hypothetically do.  Personally, I am a lot more confident that I could find a quality starting G on Day 2 than an X WR.  If Mike Brown isn't confident Tobin can do that in this stacked of a class, then he should fire him.  

If my post was fear mongering, then I don't think it's possible to advocate for drafting Sewell without fear mongering. I did my absolute best to not exaggerate the dangers or say anything like "If we don't take Sewell, Burrow dies!" I just made my best attempt at explaining why Oline should be our priority because of the objective reality that a worse oline = more hits on Burrow and more hits on Burrow = more chances he gets injured. And we currently have a really bad Oline. Sewell doesn't guarantee Burrow's health (nothing can), but he does increase the chances that Burrow is not injured, as any good olineman would. Signing Reiff decreased the chance of Burrow getting injured as well. The problem is we just didn't do enough on the interior and, as you pointed out, that was where Burrow's injury came from. If we draft Sewell, we can move him in to RG or we can move Reiff in to Right Guard and upgrade both positions significantly from last year. And, if Jonah Williams does get injured for the third year in a row, we have someone to plug into the most important position on the Oline without having to rely on getting several hundreds of good snaps out of Hakeem Adeniji and Fred Johnson.

How many OL are in the top 50 prospects varies from analyst to analyst and differs even more from how teams feel. Dane Brugler, for example, only has 10 Olinemen in the top 50:
Sewell, Slater, Vera-Tucker, Darrisaw, Dickerson, Jenkins, Leatherwood, Cosmi, Humphrey and Eichenburg.

If we could guarantee that one of those guys was available at 38, I'd be comfortable with taking Chase. Problem is there are a lot of teams at the backend of the first round that are projected to need offensive linemen. Baltimore just traded Brown, Pittsburgh's center retired, KC still probably needs 1 more tackle, Indy, Jacksonville, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Seattle, Tennessee, Minnesota and Washington all have legitimate needs along the Oline and I've seen offensive linemen mocked to them consistently across mock drafts. All those teams would need to do is either take an offensive lineman with their first pick or recognize that they need to trade in front of us to get one of these 10 guys and we could be stuck reaching for a Radunz or Meinerz who may not be ready to start year 1...

I know that taking Chase is the sexy pick and I know it's a story book ending to have Burrow throwing to Chase for the next 5 to 10 years, but I'd be much more comfortable and confident in the future potential of our team (since no one really expects us to go to the playoffs in 2021 anyway) to lock down the Oline and then address the weapons in 2022. Doing it that way hurts our offensive production, but it doesn't risk the future of the franchise. Flipping it and prioritizing weapons now and Oline later may make our offense more explosive in a year that we aren't expected to compete (although, for all we know, an improved Oline means a better running game which will open up the passing game as well anyway), but it adds risk to the equation with a QB who notoriously does not give up on plays even when he should (which leads to more sacks than he needs to take, as your statistic about 25 sacks would indicate) and is coming off of a major injury. I say mitigate the risk and play it conservative, for the sake of the future.

The Tobin can't evaluate Olinemen thing is more a fan concern than a team concern. Which is meaningless since we have absolutely no input into who the team drafts. It would just set my mind at ease if we took Sewell because of that pattern of terrible Oline choices in the past. That's why it was more of a side note than an actual argument .

For decades, the general idea behind building a team was from the lines out. Good Olines make the entire offense better and good Dlines make the entire defense better. It's been this way since the beginning of the game. Skill position players are always incredible and definitely add to the team, but I don't believe a team with the best weapons in the game could win without a good Oline. Until we have one of those, I don't think we have a chance at succeeding. Start with Sewell and build out from there.

[Hammerstripes]

At some point you have to realize that the guy you drafted number 1 last year is going to make every WR we have better, not the other way around. That's my main reason for being in the Sewell camp. Does Chase improve this team more than Sewell? IMO no, simply because Burrow is a guy that spreads the ball around and makes use of all the guys at his disposal. For him to to do that, he needs a good line in front of him. Even if we add Chase, the line is still an issue talent wise.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-25-2021, 02:39 PM)Whatever Wrote: It's do or die for Taylor and company this year, imo.  I can kind of give them a pass in year one, because frankly Tobin did them no favors.  I can kind of give them a pass for last year just due to the insane amount of injuries.  But excuses are like assholes.  Everybody has one.  Setbacks or not, you've gotta deliver at some point.  The win over the Titans was impressive and the MNF win over the Steelers was amazing, but a lot of other winnable games slipped through their grasp.  

I'm not into counting moral victories, but there's a lot of games last year that we probably win if we had an in his prime AJ instead of the shadow of his former self we got.  The 3 point loss to the Chargers in the opener.  5 and 3 point losses to the Browns.  The tie with the Eagles.  The 4 point loss to the Colts.  The two point loss to the Giants.  I mean, you look at the '18 season and we're 5-3 and in playoff contention.  AJ goes down and we go 1-7 the second half of the season.  I think it's overlooked just how much of a difference maker AJ was.

We do have too many holes to fill unless we get extremely lucky, snap up some post draft cuts, and some young guys step up.  That said, most playoff teams also have holes.  I personally think we have a much better chance of making the playoffs this year if we go with Chase simply because elite WR's can be such huge difference makers and he is more likely to be elite at his position as a rookie than Sewell.  If Sewell is the pick, I get it and will support him, too.  I think he will be an elite T in a few years.  Personally, with Joe on his rookie contract, I would like to be more aggressive in getting back to the playoffs.

Yep. That run seems to get forgotten about by a lot of people, but we were actually looking really good the first half of that season. Even beat Baltimore in a primetime game (AJ had 3 TD’s). AJ going down and missing the next 23 games was a huge part of why we bottomed out.

[*jason*]

(04-25-2021, 06:01 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Yep. That run seems to get forgotten about by a lot of people, but we were actually looking really good the first half of that season. Even beat Baltimore in a primetime game (AJ had 3 TD’s). AJ going down and missing the next 23 games was a huge part of why we bottomed out.

I don't think it's a coincidence that that's also the last stretch of games where Geno Atkins looked like Geno Atkins.

[Essex Johnson]

My gut tells me Sewell will be selected by Falcons and we will pick Chase.

[Burma]

(04-25-2021, 08:08 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: My gut tells me Sewell will be selected by Falcons and  we will pick Chase.

 Don't forget Calvin Ridley's contract is up after 2021 and the 5th year option would cost over $11 mill.  Julio Jones just signed that 3 yr $66 mill deal which isn't up till 2023 and cuting him would be a $17 mill cap hit after 2021.  It's possible they may look at Chase as a replacement for Ridley if they feel they can't afford Ridley and Jones. Probably unlikely, but possible.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-25-2021, 09:12 PM)Burma Wrote:  Don't forget Calvin Ridley's contract is up after 2021 and the 5th year option would cost over $11 mill.  Julio Jones just signed that 3 yr $66 mill deal which isn't up till 2023 and cuting him would be a $17 mill cap hit after 2021.  It's possible they may look at Chase as a replacement for Ridley if they feel they can't afford Ridley and Jones. Probably unlikely, but possible.

Well Falcons have had trouble protecting Matt Ryan (how about 131 sacks in last three years) and I believe they still think high of Ryan and Falcons know they have the weapons, they just need better protection so i think they draft Sewell.

[NUGDUKWE]

I've been on team draft Sewell and maybe it's because I'm expecting them to draft Chase but I'm starting to lean towards Chase but I do think it might force us to go back to back OL. I will be curious what Atlanta does as really the 1st big ? of the draft. If they take Sewell I think we take Chase but if they trade to someone who takes Chase or they do for some reason I wouldn't be 100% sure we take Sewell although I think we should. Also as I'm thinking about the Bengals having Chase I'm not sure there's another team that would have a receiving core comparable to that. I'm wondering if that's a good or bad thing. Obviously you want to say it's a good thing but not one team? Seems like there might be a reason for that I mean receivers can be what would be considered divas and it's alot of mouths to feed of players that I would think should all feel like they're on a level playing field with each other.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(04-22-2021, 05:37 PM)Yogo Wrote: I'll give you that, but Chase would've filled a position of need with a huge upgrade compared to having Jamarr partially upgrade one of our positions that is already solid.  That is a waste and a small upgrade.

For me Jamarr Chase is the biggest upgrade. He's an upgrade because the knock-on effect is better match ups for Higgins and Boyd and therefore makes us better at 3 spots instead of just 1.

(04-22-2021, 07:40 PM)AtomicBlaze Wrote: Am I the only one who thinks 1 offensive lineman is not enough? The Bengals offensive line was historically terrible, it was disgusting to watch. I want to get at least 3-4 offensive lineman in this draft, if we could at least fix that position group then there will be hope. We literally have no chance of being competitive with what we have now, and most likely Burrow is going to end up on IR again if he keeps taking this many hits. People that want Chase, I hope you enjoy winning 1-4 games for the next 5 years during Burrows prime.

When considering how historically bad the Bengals' 2020 O-line was you need to look at how often the following played (% of Bengals' 2020 offensive snaps played):

Bobby Hart (81%)
Michael Jordan (68%)
Fred Johnson (46%)
Alex Redmond (42%)

There's a decent chance that by roster cut downs none of these remain on the roster. Even if they do they are probably only going to be second or third man off the bench.

Even without drafting anyone the Bengals' week 1 projected starting line is (and % of Bengals' offensive snaps taken last year)
Jonah Williams 59%
Xavier Su'a Filo 27%
Billy Price 19%
Quinton Spain 50%
Riley Reiff 0%

That's already quite different and if you add an O-lineman in the second round you then have five O-linemen all drafted top 40.

Then add a second O-lineman in the third or fourth and you should have sufficient depth that none of those guys who played 237% of the snaps last year (or 259% if you include Hakeem Adeniji) see the field unless you are 3 men down.

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

(04-21-2021, 02:05 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: Don't know how familiar people are with Bob McGinn's draft previews, he basically has been interviewing scouts for the draft for 37 years and polls them as to who the best prospects are at each position. They are highly respected and well worth a read (they're on the Athletic, first one on WR and TE was today)

The thing that jumped out to me what was that they had Chase as the first unanimous choice at WR since Megatron in 2007.

That seems all the more impressive with 2 other WRs potentially going top 10, so it's not exactly a weak WR class.

Will be interesting to see where Sewell comes in for OTs. There seem to be a few who draftheads who prefer Slater as the more technically polished.

Also on the Athletic Bruce Feldman had a good piece speaking to draft evaluators. In contrast to Chase, who sources said would have been the best WR in last year's draft, they were suggesting that Andrew Thomas and Jedrick Willis were both better prospects last year than Sewell. This scout was concerned about Sewell's length and said they thought he could be an elite guard but not a great tackle.

It seems the BPA choice at 5 would seemingly now be Chase (or Pitts, who should really be a bigger part of this conversation) rather than Sewell, who has dropped back a little as evaluations have delved deeper.

Either way, the Bengals are going to get better.

Bob McGinn's O-line article is now out

Sewell came out top but wasn't unanimous. 

Key comments:

Most over-rated: Sewell and Cosmi both got 4 votes each (out of 17)

13 out of those 17 scouts though said Sewell was the best O-lineman in the draft

Other interesting comments:
"The depth of the tackle group is better than the top end of it"
"The best value is 20 to 40; the guy you get at 36 won't be much different than the guy you get at 21. It's a deep group."
"I have 11 tackles with first round potential"
"I put the tape on expecting to see Jonathan Ogden or Joe Thomas or Walter Jones or Orlando Pace, and I didn't see it".

One AFC evaluator ranked Sewell better than 9 of the last 15 O-lineman first off the board (which included Jonah)

[leonardfan40]

(04-26-2021, 11:56 AM)TJHoushmandzadehs Shiny Shoes Wrote: Bob McGinn's O-line article is now out

Sewell came out top but wasn't unanimous. 

Key comments:

Most over-rated: Sewell and Cosmi both got 4 votes each (out of 17)

13 out of those 17 scouts though said Sewell was the best O-lineman in the draft

Other interesting comments:
"The depth of the tackle group is better than the top end of it"
"The best value is 20 to 40; the guy you get at 36 won't be much different than the guy you get at 21. It's a deep group."
"I have 11 tackles with first round potential"
"I put the tape on expecting to see Jonathan Ogden or Joe Thomas or Walter Jones or Orlando Pace, and I didn't see it".

One AFC evaluator ranked Sewell better than 9 of the last 15 O-lineman first off the board (which included Jonah)

Pretty much exactly what I’ve been saying but from actual scouts and listed out better and easier to digest than my rambling lol thanks for sharing! Hopefully everyone who is dead set on Sewell reads this. Doesn’t have to change any minds but hopefully will soften the blow for them is Chase is the pick

[Hammerstripes]

(04-26-2021, 12:12 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Pretty much exactly what I’ve been saying but from actual scouts and listed out better and easier to digest than my rambling lol thanks for sharing! Hopefully everyone who is dead set on Sewell reads this. Doesn’t have to change any minds but hopefully will soften the blow for them is Chase is the pick

The other thing to keep in mind regarding O-line evaluation is that these scouts look at what best fits their system.  So a guy that runs a certain scheme may look at Slater or Darrisaw as the top tackle.

The same really doesn't apply to WR.  It really doesn't matter what scheme you run, the outside guys are going to be evaluated on a fairly consistent basis, so will the slot guys.

[northernbengal]

Just to disclose I was originally team sewell but switched to team chase. I think it boils down to which pick will add more to the team. While I am happy with either and think sewell could be a cornerstone I think chase is better. Interesting enough while everyone is scared chase will bust due to the higher bust rate among receivers in the first round and top 10 you are actually equally likely to draft a starter with taking linemen in the 2 and 3rd round 1-(.3*.6)=.82, whereas the lineman in the first round have an 83% success rate. Article linked below.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

[Whatever]

(04-25-2021, 09:12 PM)Burma Wrote:  Don't forget Calvin Ridley's contract is up after 2021 and the 5th year option would cost over $11 mill.  Julio Jones just signed that 3 yr $66 mill deal which isn't up till 2023 and cuting him would be a $17 mill cap hit after 2021.  It's possible they may look at Chase as a replacement for Ridley if they feel they can't afford Ridley and Jones. Probably unlikely, but possible.

It's also possible that they see Gage, who put up nearly 800 yards as their WR3 last year, as the replacement for one of those guys.  

Julio will be hard to move because he has a $15+ mil base salary this year and there are just not a lot of teams willing or able to take on that kind of a cap hit.  

[bengaloo]

(04-25-2021, 08:08 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: My gut tells me Sewell will be selected by Falcons and  we will pick Chase.

If the Falcons select Sewell, it would be smart to trade back for Darrisaw or Slater and get a couple extra picks in the draft. 

Or we could take Chase and have 3 WR's who are pro bowl caliber and hope Burrow has time to get them all the ball, and Mixon is ok with being a pass first and most often team. Chase is certainly a great talent and would boost the talent on the offense, but we would have 3 WR's who are more talented at their positions than anyone we have on the OL. What is best for Burrow and the team I guess is the real question. Chase would also come in with a lot of big media hype which might help sell tickets, so there is another Chase bonus.

[Nicomo Cosca]

This is honestly one of the most succinct Team Chase comments I’ve seen to date...

“When I’m drafting in the top 5. I don’t want to draft a player I don’t have to worry about the next 10 years. I want to draft a player every other team has to worry about for the next 10 years and that’s what Ja’Marr Chase can be.” - @PFF_AustinGayle

— Lindsay Patterson (@LndsPatterson) April 27, 2021

[Au165]

If we come out of this Chase/2nd round OL or Sewell/ Marshall or Bateman I am happy either way. If we get Sewell and a WR other than those two I have serious concerns about the WR group this year. Either way, I am good with either move assuming the 2nd pick comes in and helps the other. The one caveat here is, there are a couple of pass rushers who could fall to 38 that I would be okay with kicking the can down the road to round 3 if there.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-28-2021, 08:36 AM)Au165 Wrote: If we come out of this Chase/2nd round OL or Sewell/ Marshall or Bateman I am happy either way. If we get Sewell and a WR other than those two I have serious concerns about the WR group this year. Either way, I am good with either move assuming the 2nd pick comes in and helps the other. The one caveat here is, there are a couple of pass rushers who could fall to 38 that I would be okay with kicking the can down the road to round 3 if there.

Apparently the Eagles have had several talks with Marshall and are super interested. And ofc they pick one spot ahead of us in the 2nd...