The Mythical Lapham Prediction

[Burma]

(04-26-2021, 02:39 PM)Au165 Wrote: Hey, you never know when a gas mask bong video will come out.

 those were the days!

[CJD]

(04-26-2021, 02:27 PM)Au165 Wrote: Peter Schrager just said on the Cowherd show that everything in the Bengals front office says they haven't actually decided which way they are going, but it is between Sewell and Chase 100%. Kind of interesting they are still up in the air 4 days out.

With a decision this big, it wouldn't surprise me if they are still discussing it at 8:30 pm on Thursday as the clock turns to their pick.

[Shake n Blake]

(04-26-2021, 02:21 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think a lot of people being entrenched in Sewell is because the narrative has been that he is some sort of generational prospect. I just wonder if that wasn't the public-facing narrative for two years if people would be as entrenched. For instance, and it's just one team, but the Scout I often reference here his team did not have Sewell as a top 5 non-QB in this draft (don't ask me who the 5 are because he wouldn't tell me). I am sure other teams have Slater over Sewell, but the narrative has been since last year Sewell is this unquestionable monster and I just think that drives a lot of people around here's determination in "Sewell or Bust".

Time will tell if they are right or not in their evaluation, but I do think the possibility that Sewell isn't what people claim he is makes for an interesting thought experiment.

To be fair, there are scouts who are supposedly not as hyped about Chase, too. There are also a lot of Chase fans who think he's "generational"... and this talk really didn't blow up til Chase had a great workout in shorts. Then suddenly the Chase hype train blew up.

But it's hard to trust anything being said rn. Sometimes teams put out negative word in hopes of killing hype and getting guys to slide.

I guess my point is that we - as fans - truly have no clue how teams really feel about these guys.

So I don't base my feeling on anyone being "generational". I view Sewell and Chase as great prospects, but think generational is a label that might not apply to either. I just want the priority to be the biggest problem. It's really that simple.

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-26-2021, 11:23 AM)Au165 Wrote: People act like who Burrow wants doesn't matter, and it doesn't, but there is one special caveat this year that is unique. Something that you keep hearing is teams have never had less information on character/work ethic/etc. then they do this year. Teams are relying on relationships with people in buildings, not casual relationships but deep long-standing ones, to get the real picture to know if a guy practices hard every day, does he get in trouble, does he show up on time. I wonder if in another year it would be Sewell as a slam dunk, but with the lack of access teams and scouts had this year if going with Chase who Burrow can actually tell you those things makes a big difference.

Also, keep in mind, the Bengals have really strong ties back to LSU even before Burrow so you got to think they are comfortable with the info coming out of LSU...maybe not so much Oregan?

This brings up an excellent point. I respect Burrow's opinion and I assume the front office does as well. Maybe even more so this year than normal years. But with any prospect you have the talent to evaluate and you have the tape and combine/pro day numbers. But what truly defines a great player is the mindset, character and fire that individual player has. That's nearly impossible to pick up in the interview process. But you have a guy in house who spent years with him. Really might be invaluable advice.

[bonesaw]

If we go Chase we'd better go Oline with the next 6 picks. Throw numbers at it. We're currently a snap away from running Fred Johnson back out there at tackle to protect Joe Burrow's rehabbing knee. Hopkins is probably our best interior guy and he's coming off an injury. I love Chase as long as the next 6 picks are oline. You know you're gonna miss on some and we still need a whole lot. Defense can wait until next year.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 03:06 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: To be fair, there are scouts who are supposedly not as hyped about Chase, too. There are also a lot of Chase fans who think he's "generational"... and this talk really didn't blow up til Chase had a great workout in shorts. Then suddenly the Chase hype train blew up.

But it's hard to trust anything being said rn. Sometimes teams put out negative word in hopes of killing hype and getting guys to slide.

I guess my point is that we - as fans - truly have no clue how teams really feel about these guys.

So I don't base my feeling on anyone being "generational". I view Sewell and Chase as great prospects, but think generational is a label that might not apply to either. I just want the priority to be the biggest problem. It's really that simple.

The one thing I will throw in here is Chase did his work against guys we now know are good/solid in the NFL. Sewell's biggest matchups have come against so far pretty average players and I think that is really what has given teams some pause on him. Not saying it's the end-all, but the hindsight of what Chase did to guys like AJ Terrell, Trevon Diggs, CJ Henderson, Noah Igbinoghene and Patrick Surtain II tells us that he can come in and compete against NFL players right now pretty well.

[Murdock2420]

(04-26-2021, 01:05 PM)Takedown Wrote: Probably very accurate, but depressing. And I don't mind us picking Chase at all. I just want o-line addressed on day 2.

I actually hope they screw the pooch here and maybe finally learn a lesson.

When they take Chase, I hope they get jumped a lot in round two end of round one and see the OL depth evaporate forcing them to go to another position. Then all draft long till round 4/5 where it won't matter, just watch teams keep jumping them since it will be obvious what they need. 

Maybe... just maybe they will finally learn a lesson from this.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 04:26 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I actually hope they screw the pooch here and maybe finally learn a lesson.

When they take Chase, I hope they get jumped a lot in round two end of round one and see the OL depth evaporate forcing them to go to another position. Then all draft long till round 4/5 where it won't matter, just watch teams keep jumping them since it will be obvious what they need. 

Maybe... just maybe they will finally learn a lesson from this.

It just won't happen. I was doing a thought experiment the other day and there are really about 15 or so offensive lineman I'd be okay with walking away with after the 2nd and they aren't all going before pick 38, if they do there are some AMAZING defensive options there and it's not all bad. 

[Murdock2420]

(04-26-2021, 04:58 PM)Au165 Wrote: It just won't happen. I was doing a thought experiment the other day and there are really about 15 or so offensive lineman I'd be okay with walking away with after the 2nd and they aren't all going before pick 38, if they do there are some AMAZING defensive options there and it's not all bad. 

15 before 38?

And I could see 15 being picked from pick 5 to the 1st pick we have in round 3. 

Again, I view it like when you have a kid and say stop trying to touch the stove it is hot. Eventually, they have to touch it and learn. Well.. the Bengals are the children here and the stove is not drafting the best OL player when you get the chance. So.. let them burn.

[Bengalholic]

(04-26-2021, 04:26 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I actually hope they screw the pooch here and maybe finally learn a lesson.

When they take Chase, I hope they get jumped a lot in round two end of round one and see the OL depth evaporate forcing them to go to another position. Then all draft long till round 4/5 where it won't matter, just watch teams keep jumping them since it will be obvious what they need. 

Maybe... just maybe they will finally learn a lesson from this.

FFS, this stupid ass debate has officially went completely off the rails.

[Whatever]

(04-26-2021, 05:40 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: FFS, this stupid ass debate has officially went completely off the rails. 

Yup.  It's fine to argue your point, but when you hit "I hope they fail if they don't do what I want them to do," levels of passive aggressiveness, there's an issue.

[Murdock2420]

(04-26-2021, 05:40 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: FFS this stupid ass debate has officially went completely off the rails.

(04-26-2021, 05:49 PM)Whatever Wrote: Yup.  It's fine to argue your point, but when you hit "I hope they fail if they don't do what I want them to do," levels of passive aggressiveness, there's an issue.

So it is okay to pull for them to lose out for draft position but not okay to hope they don't get their targets in round 2 or 3 to force their hand in the next draft and FA period???

That seems... kind of hypocritical.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 05:11 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: 15 before 38?

And I could see 15 being picked from pick 5 to the 1st pick we have in round 3. 

Again, I view it like when you have a kid and say stop trying to touch the stove it is hot. Eventually, they have to touch it and learn. Well.. the Bengals are the children here and the stove is not drafting the best OL player when you get the chance. So.. let them burn.

There are 15 guys on the OL that if we got by 38 I’d be happy with, multiple guys from that list will be available at 38 hence me saying your weird wish isn’t happening. There are another 5-7 I’d be okay with taking on the 3rd, there are a lot of quality guys who can play inside in this draft day 1.

I think it was the Athletic composition big board that had like 40 OL dudes in the top 100.

[blt4584]

(04-26-2021, 04:26 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I actually hope they screw the pooch here and maybe finally learn a lesson.

When they take Chase, I hope they get jumped a lot in round two end of round one and see the OL depth evaporate forcing them to go to another position. Then all draft long till round 4/5 where it won't matter, just watch teams keep jumping them since it will be obvious what they need. 

Maybe... just maybe they will finally learn a lesson from this.

I guess I don't really see the lesson here.

2015- Ced and Fisher
2018- Price and Glenn
2019- Williams

They have been trying, but outside of Williams showing promise, they have just been crap at it. Maybe the lesson is scout better? Maybe value the G position more, but Sewell likely isn't the long term plan there either and I don't think Brown will ever come around to it even if God told him directly. 

[*Synric*]

(04-26-2021, 05:56 PM)Au165 Wrote: There are 15 guys on the OL that if we got by 38 I’d be happy with, multiple guys from that list will be available at 38 hence me saying your weird wish isn’t happening. There are another 5-7 I’d be okay with taking on the 3rd, there are a lot of quality guys who can play inside in this draft day 1.

In the Board Mock I traded back to 9 and took Christian Darrisaw and gained picks #40 and #152. By the time #38 and #40 rolled around there was really any receiving options so I went back to back Defensive Line with Joe Tryon who I consider a late 1st early 2nd and Daviyon Nixon who was a slight reach but has alot of talent in a very weak IDL Class. I think everyone expected me to go Nico Collins at the top of the 3rd but Jackson Carman was there and I have him higher on my board than Collins as a guy that slipped out of the 2nd round.

The Wide Receiver class is deep but I believe the depth is really in that 4th to 6th round range with a ton of talented athletes coaches love to try to turn into football players.

The 3rd round could be great for grabbing an extra offensive lineman like Carman, Hudson, Cleveland, Forsythe, Christensen, Little, Spencer Brown etc...

[Bengalholic]

(04-26-2021, 05:54 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: So it is okay to pull for them to lose out for draft position but not okay to hope they don't get their targets in round 2 or 3 to force their hand in the next draft and FA period???

That seems... kind of hypocritical.

The whole pointing of wanting OL at 5 is because they need OL help. So, if they don't go OL at 5, why in the hell would anyone 'hope' they get no OL help at all in the next 2 rounds? They would STILL need OL help, right? Makes zero sense. 

[blt4584]

(04-26-2021, 05:54 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: So it is okay to pull for them to lose out for draft position but not okay to hope they don't get their targets in round 2 or 3 to force their hand in the next draft and FA period???

That seems... kind of hypocritical.

In one you are hoping that an already bad team loses out to maximize draft capital, in the other you are hoping that the team can't fill needs and STAYS bad. Doesn't seem like the same thing to me.

[*psychdoctor*]

(04-26-2021, 05:56 PM)Au165 Wrote: There are 15 guys on the OL that if we got by 38 I’d be happy with, multiple guys from that list will be available at 38 hence me saying your weird wish isn’t happening. There are another 5-7 I’d be okay with taking on the 3rd, there are a lot of quality guys who can play inside in this draft day 1.

I think it was the Athletic composition big board that had like 40 OL dudes in the top 100.

If Bengals go Chase instead of Sewell or trading back for Slater, I think they will go to Edge or Williams at #38.  Hope I am wrong, but if Rousseau is there, they pull the trigger.  

[Hammerstripes]

(04-26-2021, 06:09 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: If Bengals go Chase instead of Sewell or trading back for Slater, I think they will go to Edge or Williams at #38.  Hope I am wrong, but if Rousseau is there, they pull the trigger.  

I don't think there's any chance they move off of 5.  

[*psychdoctor*]

(04-26-2021, 06:12 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I don't think there's any chance they move off of 5.  

I don't either Hammer.  I think it's Sewell or Chase.  I said it because it is remote possibility that others throw around.