TeamPitts

[Wes Mantooth]

(04-29-2021, 12:57 AM)Big_Ern Wrote: Yeah...that guy was also on the team...

Which of these describes that guy the best?

-Super cool
-Not cool at all
-He was ok

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-29-2021, 01:03 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It has to do with fear Burrow will go on IR again.
That mindset is "get the best OL possible to reduce the risk as much as possible."

Yeah, but getting Sewell doesn't prevent this either. Sure helps, but there very well could be OL that turn out better than Sewell
in this Draft as we have seen in the past Drafts over and over. The top guy doesn't always end up being the best and Sewell 
wouldn't of played in 18 months come opening day. Have to have your mind open to all the possibilities and Pitts could very
well end up being the best NFL player out of this Draft. 

[*ochocincos*]

(04-29-2021, 01:16 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, but getting Sewell doesn't prevent this either. Sure helps, but there very well could be OL that turn out better than Sewell
in this Draft as we have seen in the past Drafts over and over. The top guy doesn't always end up being the best and Sewell 
wouldn't of played in 18 months come opening day. Have to have your mind open to all the possibilities and Pitts could very
well end up being the best NFL player out of this Draft. 

Agreed, Sewell doesn't fix the whole OL, and there is never guaranteed a critical injury doesn't happen just because you have a good OL.
Palmer got his knee destroyed when he had one of the best OLs in the league.
And (smart) defenses will just scheme to attack the worst player(s) on the OL, which will likely be one of the Gs or the C.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(04-29-2021, 01:19 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Agreed, Sewell doesn't fix the whole OL, and there is never guaranteed a critical injury doesn't happen just because you have a good OL.
Palmer got his knee destroyed when he had one of the best OLs in the league.
And (smart) defenses will just scheme to attack the worst player(s) on the OL, which will likely be one of the Gs or the C.

Spot on Ocho, spot on.

[Hammerstripes]

(04-29-2021, 08:08 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: His production isn't "big numbers", but the biggest numbers for a WR in NCAA history, and he did it in the SEC.  His "other" numbers:  4.38 speed, 3.99 short shuttle (fastest in the draft)  41" vertical, 11' broad jump, and 22 (!) reps of 225 lbs.  That is an explosiveness score (vertical + broad + reps of 225) of 74, which is absurd for a WR.  He averaged over 20 yards per reception and had a near-perfect 99 rating on passes traveling over 20 yards downfield.  

Show me a WR from the past 20 years that has near that kind of production and testing.  It shouldn't be hard given that "every year there are guys like that that put up big numbers".  

He had the benefit of playing 15 games, so those numbers are skewed a bit.  Sure, he had a great workout, but if you take a year off of football and focus solely on that, you should put up those kind of numbers.

I'll be happy with Chase.  But it will be a couple of years before we see this team realize that benefit with the lack of quality additions to the o-line.

[Wes Mantooth]

There's no doubt that Sewell has the potential to be a huge help down the road. But one thing I think some for taking for granted is that he's going to be a huge help immediately.

I'm not pointing this out to say this is a reason to not draft him. The long-term and big picture should always be what influences a draft pick the most. But I just think too many people think this guy is going to immediately step in and be well above average. That's not very likely to happen.

I've seen a lot of people have say that we NEED to protect Joe Burrow in 2021 and Sewell will be a big reason we can do this. I respectfully disagree. If we were truly serious about protecting Joe Burrow would have signed a high dollar guard and not reserved ourselves to bringing back Quention Spain for the vet minimum. We would have added another quality Guard/Center for depth and to protect us in case Hopkins isn't ready.

As far as protecting Joe Burrow immediately, we're almost at the "what you see is what you get" phase right now. Sewell, Slater or a 2nd rounder, they'll all help with depth and they'll show some flashes. But the chances of any of them coming in and playing at a consistently high level are slim to none. None of them are going to take this OL from bad or below average to decent or above average overnight.

Just my 2 cents. No problem with wanting Sewell for the long term, or because you think he's the best prospect. I just disagree that's he's going to step in and immediately transform the strength of the position group.

[Big_Ern]

(04-29-2021, 01:15 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Which of these describes that guy the best?

-Super cool
-Not cool at all
-He was ok

Lol. He was OK, but you could tell he wasn't a naturally cool or likeable person. When you couple that with a big ego and everyone jocking him you could tell he was going to be douchey. From what I've heard he's only gotten much worse since entering the NFL. Probably unbearable and you'd only put up with him if it benefits you in some way 

[shanebo]

I love Kyle Pitts too, and I think he'll probably be a great NFL player. But he's a TE, and it's a fact that a TE simply cannot exceed the production of a comparable WR. For example, Travis Kelce is probably the best TE in the NFL today, but he's never led the league in receiving yards (2nd in 2020, his best year, and 4th in 2019 - 500 yds behind Michael Thomas) or TDs. In fact, no TE has ever led the league in receiving yards or TDs, to my knowledge. Now that's nothing to sniff at -- I'd love to have Kelce on my team -- but the best WR from the year Kelce was drafted (2013) is DeAndre Hopkins, and I'd rather have Hopkins on my team than Kelce (he has 2,000 more yards and 12 more TDs). Same with Gronk. He was drafted the same year as Antonio Brown, who outperformed him in every category. And as good as George Kittle is, JuJu, Godwin, and arguably Golliday all have been better.

So unless you really think Pitts will become a generational TE -- and by "generational" I mean better than Kelce, Gronk and Kittle, guys who have in the last decade revolutionized the TE position -- you're statistically better off picking the best WR in a draft class (or the guy who you believe will be the best WR in a draft class, lol ...) if you're looking for an offensive weapon. So I'd go Sewell, Chase, Pitts, in that order.

Admittedly, pre-draft only Hopkins was widely considered to be the best WR available in his respective year, but Kelce, Gronk, and Kittle were not considered to be the best TEs in their draft classes either -- recall we picked Gresham before Gronk and Eifert before Kelce, and Kittle wasn't taken until Rd. 5.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-29-2021, 02:07 PM)shanebo Wrote: I love Kyle Pitts too, and I think he'll probably be a great NFL player.  But he's a TE, and it's a fact that a TE simply cannot exceed the production of a comparable WR.  For example, Travis Kelce is probably the best TE in the NFL today, but he's never led the league in receiving yards (2nd in 2020, his best year, and 4th in 2019 - 500 yds behind Michael Thomas) or TDs.  In fact, no TE has ever led the league in receiving yards or TDs, to my knowledge.  Now that's nothing to sniff at -- I'd love to have Kelce on my team -- but the best WR from the year Kelce was drafted (2013) is DeAndre Hopkins, and I'd rather have Hopkins on my team than Kelce (he has 2,000 more yards and 12 more TDs).  Same with Gronk.  He was drafted the same year as Antonio Brown, who outperformed him in every category.  And as good as George Kittle is, JuJu, Godwin, and arguably Golliday all have been better.  

So unless you really think Pitts will become a generational TE -- and by "generational" I mean better than Kelce, Gronk and Kittle, guys who have in the last decade revolutionized the TE position -- you're statistically better off picking the best WR in a draft class (or the guy who you believe will be the best WR in a draft class, lol ...) if you're looking for an offensive weapon.  So I'd go Sewell, Chase, Pitts, in that order.    

Admittedly, pre-draft only Hopkins was widely considered to be the best WR available in his respective year, but Kelce, Gronk, and Kittle were not considered to be the best TEs in their draft classes either -- recall we picked Gresham before Gronk and Eifert before Kelce, and Kittle wasn't taken until Rd. 5.

The thought that a TE will never lead the league in receiving yards is kind of getting closer to being an outdated thought.
Kelce broke the record for receiving yards in a season by TE last year, hitting 1416 yards, which was 2nd most receiving yards in the whole league.
The previous record holder was George Kittle, who had 1377 yards in 2018.


Travis Kelce's receiving yards rank each season:
2020 - 2nd
2019 - 4th
2018 - 10th
2017 - 13th
2016 - 12th

The only receivers who have been 13th or better every year for the past 5 years - Travis Kelce. That's it.

Kelce has averaged 1228 yards and 7.6 TDs per season since 2016. That's elite WR1 level.

There are probably only 3-5 WRs you could say you would take over Kelce:
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Davante Adams
- Michael Thomas
- Mike Evans?
- Tyreek Hill?

The reality is TE is becoming far more receiving-focused nowadays, with guys like Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Gronk, and Ertz getting rather consistently at or very near the Top 10 in receiving yards.

EDIT - And yes, I do think Pitts will be a generational talent, similar to Gronk, Kelce, Kittle, Waller.

[impactplaya]

TEs are eventually morphing into actually Big X WRs......
Now TEs being coveted by NFL teams are asked to be downfield
Threats instead of inline blockers....
Blocking is now secondary in what teams are looking for in TEs.
TEs are now running the same route tree as WRs.
A TE that can wreck havoc at all 3-levels are more of a commodity
Than a TE than is a ok pass catcher and ok blocker

[Hammerstripes]

(04-29-2021, 10:48 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’m guessing you think he’ll have to play OG because of his arm length?

No.  I think he's a tackle.  If we are drafting him to play tackle, sure, but I don't think that's the plan.

We have Jonah and Reiff this year.  We need someone that can come in and play immediately on the interior.

Plus, I don't think he makes it to 38.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-29-2021, 12:56 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This HAS to be taken into account. Don't understand the all Sewell or nothing crowd...

Because I am not looking at a WR or TE in rd 2 so I don't care about their counterparts. I am looking at getting another OL in rd 2. I am part of the Sewell + 2nd rd OL crowd.

(04-29-2021, 01:16 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, but getting Sewell doesn't prevent this either. Sure helps, but there very well could be OL that turn out better than Sewell
in this Draft as we have seen in the past Drafts over and over. The top guy doesn't always end up being the best and Sewell 
wouldn't of played in 18 months come opening day. Have to have your mind open to all the possibilities and Pitts could very
well end up being the best NFL player out of this Draft. 

Can't this literally be said about any position in the draft?

Justin Jefferson/Julio Jones/Antonio Brown wasn't the first WR taken, so forget Chase.
Rob Gronkowski/Travis Kelce wasn't the first TE taken, so forget Pitts.


That's a silly argument to not address your biggest need with a guy who is also arguably BPA.

(04-29-2021, 01:33 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: There's no doubt that Sewell has the potential to be a huge help down the road.  But one thing I think some for taking for granted is that he's going to be a huge help immediately.

I'm not pointing this out to say this is a reason to not draft him.  The long-term and big picture should always be what influences a draft pick the most.  But I just think too many people think this guy is going to immediately step in and be well above average.  That's not very likely to happen.

I've seen a lot of people have say that we NEED to protect Joe Burrow in 2021 and Sewell will be a big reason we can do this.  I respectfully disagree.  If we were truly serious about protecting Joe Burrow would have signed a high dollar guard and not reserved ourselves to bringing back Quention Spain for the vet minimum.  We would have added another quality Guard/Center for depth and to protect us in case Hopkins isn't ready.

As far as protecting Joe Burrow immediately, we're almost at the "what you see is what you get" phase right now.  Sewell, Slater or a 2nd rounder, they'll all help with depth and they'll show some flashes.  But the chances of any of them coming in and playing at a consistently high level are slim to none.  None of them are going to take this OL from bad or below average to decent or above average overnight.

Just my 2 cents.  No problem with wanting Sewell for the long term, or because you think he's the best prospect.  I just disagree that's he's going to step in and immediately transform the strength of the position group.

Yeah, well they already went and screwed up in FA by not getting another high quality OL there. That train is gone. So now it's all on the draft and hope. What's the alternative? Sit on your thumb and hope? That sounds even worse.

Even if Sewell + 2nd round OL doesn't help immensely in 2021, they will have been developed in time for 2022. Meanwhile if they don't go earl and often on OL, they'll almost certainly be in this exact same position come 2022, because I highly doubt that Mike Brown will suddenly shuck off 30 years of incompetence and suddenly decide to pay big bucks for quality OL FA.

[*ochocincos*]

It should speak to Pitts' potential that he was the first non-QB taken, and went ahead of any of the WRs.
I have confidence he's going to be a stud, but I also thought John Ross and OJ Howard would be too, so...

[Au165]

(04-30-2021, 11:23 AM)ochocincos Wrote: It should speak to Pitts' potential that he was the first non-QB taken, and went ahead of any of the WRs.
I have confidence he's going to be a stud, but I also thought John Ross and OJ Howard would be too, so...

Mike Clay projects him at 98 targets as a rookie too, with Julio still on the team...

[*ochocincos*]

(04-30-2021, 11:24 AM)Au165 Wrote: Mike Clay projects him at 98 targets as a rookie too, with Julio still on the team...

Yep.
Imagine how many he'll get once Julio and Hurst are gone within the next couple years.

[XenoMorph]

(04-30-2021, 11:23 AM)ochocincos Wrote: It should speak to Pitts' potential that he was the first non-QB taken, and went ahead of any of the WRs.
I have confidence he's going to be a stud, but I also thought John Ross and OJ Howard would be too, so...

well he has the tools.  if he reaches his potential or not will be seen