Early Projections Have Bengals Picking Top 5 Again In Next Years Draft

[XenoMorph]

(05-11-2021, 09:29 AM)Tomkat Wrote: Oh come on... the Browns have improved, but they're not world-beaters.  Counting them as 2 automatic losses is pretty foolish, in my opinion.

Correct they arent world champions but they are much closer than we are..

Its possible we catch them on a bad week this year your right

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2021, 10:11 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: Correct they arent world champions but they are much closer than we are..

Its possible we catch them on a bad week this year your right

You beat the Browns the way you beat the Titans.
Get up enough on them to force them to abandon the run.
Their offense is not built to come from behind much.

[J24]

Were going to be the 2020 Texans.

[TJ528]

(05-11-2021, 10:03 AM)muskiesfan Wrote: Say what you want, but Pat Mac is great. He was absolutely spot on about this organization. As a fan it's hard to hear, but it's not like we don't know these things to be true.

The front office is composed mostly of family and friends of the family. None have proven to be capable of sustained winning especially outside of the regular season. The owner still draws a paycheck for the title of GM regardless if the work is done by Tobin under a different title or not. The owner still meddles in team decisions even with a shitastic 3 decade+ track record of his own doing. We're the only team north of Atlanta without an indoor practice facility. We also have the smallest scouting department in the NFL. Instead of listening to scouts or reviewing what they have to say, the coaches have to pound the pavement to scout and we rely on information packets given to every team because our coaches can't possibly do of all the scouting plus their regular duties. I don't see the need to continue on.

The Bengals slapped a couple of band aids on the OL this year and everyone is eating it up. Even if we drafted Sewell the line wasn't upgraded enough. Our starters may be average or even slightly above, but once injuries hit and we have to go to our depth its straight garbage. The 1 tackle we did draft is a project player expected to take 1-2 years to be ready.

My optimistic prediction would be 6 wins. I hope to be wrong and this team is close to .500. I'll happily eat crow if they do better. I expect 3-4 wins with 6 being the maximum though.

Muskie, everything you said above is exactly what I've said since I've joined this board.  Listen I'll be happy as hell to eat crow if this team is 11-6 this year and Zac turns into the offensive guru/genius that everyone on this board portrays in him to be.  

However, I truly believe Marvin made this franchise a winning organization DESPITE of the front office.  Marvin busted his ass and reshaped and turned this team from a team that operated like it was 1985 instead of 2003.  This organization wouldn't have half of what it does today without Marvin leading the helm for 15 years.  

This team will not get over the hump until they start operating like it's 2021 instead of 2003.  We need more qualified people in this organization who know football instead of family and friends.  

Personally, I think max wins this team has is 6-7 wins this year.  I did a schedule earlier on in this thread and have them at 5-12 because I truly don't believe Burrow will come back and be the exact same player game 1 of the 2021 season he was in game 10 of the 2020 season.  It's going to take time for him to gain confidence in his knees and offensive line.  How long does it take for the new pieces in the OL to gel?  They have to build chemistry together and they can only do that playing together and they only get 3 pre season games to do so this year vs 4 in the past.  

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Not sure I see Top-5.

Top-10? Probable. I think I see them getting 6 wins. (Steelers x1, Jets, Raiders, Broncos, Jags, and Lions.)

[*Nately120*]

(05-11-2021, 10:34 AM)J24 Wrote: Were going to be the 2020 Texans.

That would explain why Burrow demanded a rub and tug of me. 

[TJ528]

(05-11-2021, 10:28 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You beat the Browns the way you beat the Titans.
Get up enough on them to force them to abandon the run.
Their offense is not built to come from behind much.

Ocho you're very correct the best way to beat the Browns is to get ahead and make them abandon the run.

However, that's the recipe that beat 90% of the teams in the NFL.  Shut down the run and make teams 1 dimensional.  

My problem is I don't think Lou is good enough of a coach to put our players in the right position to make that happen. 

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2021, 10:34 AM)J24 Wrote: Were going to be the 2020 Texans.

To be the 2020 Texans, the Bengals would have had to have had a winning record the year before.

They're more like the Jacksonville Jaguars.
They also loaded up on offensive weapons (Chark, Shenault, Conley, Eifert, Robinson) but really underperformed.
They had an Andy Dalton-like QB in Minshew, and they added Jay Gruden to call the plays, but their OTs were terrible and their offense was not good. 
Their defense, like the Bengals' defense, was bottom-tier.

[Big Boss]

(05-10-2021, 04:46 PM)GodFather Wrote: https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/5/10/22427938/2022-nfl-mock-draft-bengals-season-2022

So the early consensus for this upcoming season doesn't see the Bengals winning more than 5 games with the schedule they have putting them in the top 5 for next years draft. I am not shocked at all with the assessment and actually agree. I do not see them winning more than 5-6 games this upcoming season with the opponents they will face.


The real question is if this does come to fruition do you see Mike Brown saying for another year "We remain bullish on Zac Taylor and have him around for the 2022 season"?

If we pick Top 5 again, welcome to Cincinnati, Joe Brady.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2021, 10:54 AM)TJ528 Wrote: Ocho you're very correct the best way to beat the Browns is to get ahead and make them abandon the run.

However, that's the recipe that beat 90% of the teams in the NFL.  Shut down the run and make teams 1 dimensional.  

My problem is I don't think Lou is good enough of a coach to put our players in the right position to make that happen. 

Lou is definitely not.
His focus is on defending the pass.
Hardly anyone on the defense aside from Hubbard and Reader can stop the run.
This team is not built to counter the smashmouth teams.
But given where they are at, you have to hope the offense with Chase and Carman can put up 25+ points a game, as the defense probably is going to allow 20-24 points a game.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-11-2021, 10:57 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Lou is definitely not.

But given where they are at, you have to hope the offense with Chase and Carman can put up 25+ points a game, as the defense probably is going to allow 20-24 points a game.

Ocho, if they allow 20-24 points a game (so 22 on average) then Lou would be a hero. 22.0 points per game would be the 7th best scoring defense in the NFL in 2020. Only 4 teams allowed less than 21 points per game.

Scoring 25 a game and allowing 24 a game would basically make you both a league average offense and defense in 2020.

[TJ528]

(05-11-2021, 11:09 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ocho, if they allow 20-24 points a game (so 22 on average) then Lou would be a hero. 22.0 points per game would be the 7th best scoring defense in the NFL in 2020. Only 4 teams allowed less than 21 points per game.

Scoring 25 a game and allowing 24 a game would basically make you both a league average offense and defense in 2020.

The issue I have is people say "Oh the offense is going to put up 30 ppg game this year".  Well they may very well put up 30ppg, however, I think the defense will give up close to 30ppg.  Again, I think there's talent on the defense but I just don't think you have a very good or competent coaching staff.  

If they end up in the top 15 in defense i'll come back and eat crow all day long. 

[XenoMorph]

(05-11-2021, 10:28 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You beat the Browns the way you beat the Titans.
Get up enough on them to force them to abandon the run.
Their offense is not built to come from behind much.

Because Coach T and squad has had us playing with the lead how often?

Also thats how you beat most teams...

Get more points on the board force them to be one dimensional and pounce

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2021, 11:09 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Ocho, if they allow 20-24 points a game (so 22 on average) then Lou would be a hero. 22.0 points per game would be the 7th best scoring defense in the NFL in 2020. Only 4 teams allowed less than 21 points per game.

Scoring 25 a game and allowing 24 a game would basically make you both a league average offense and defense in 2020.

The Bills allowed 23.43 PPG, which was literally middle of the pack.
So yes, if the Bengals allow 24 PPG, which according to last year was right around league average, they would need to consistently put up 25+ consistently to approach a winning record.
For a team that was 29th in Points For and 22nd in Points Allowed, getting to around league average in both would be a good improvement.

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2021, 11:23 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: Because Coach T and squad has had us playing with the lead how often?

Also thats how you beat most teams...

Get more points on the board force them to be one dimensional and pounce

Yes, but certain teams (Chief, Bucs, Packers) have a strong enough passing game to come back from 14+ down and still win.
My point was the Browns do not have as good of a passing game as the likes of the Chiefs, Bucs, and Packers, so they are less likely to come back and win if they go in a hole.

[Murdock2420]

(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Popcorn?  You kids had it so easy. Back in my day the holiday involved kids going door to door and getting a leather belt whipping from all the neighborhood adults.  

You know Faulk would have loved that neighborhood, he has to pay top dollar for that treatment these days. 

[Frank Booth]

Homers gonna home.

I wonder if the Pittsburgh pirates have a message board with short term memory loss and blind optimism lmao

[*Nately120*]

(05-11-2021, 12:57 PM)Frank Booth Wrote: Homers gonna home.

I wonder if the Pittsburgh pirates have a message board with short term memory loss and blind optimism lmao

Pretty sure the national media just says the Pirates suck because they hate small market teams.

[Wes Mantooth]

At least the Pirates do have the small market angle to play.

Fwiw, here's the 5 highest TV deals (per year) in the MLB:

-Dodgers @ 239 million
-Angels @ 138 million
-White Sox @ 120 million
-Yankees @ 115 million
-Red Sox @ 104 million

And here's the Pirates:

Pirates @ 44 million (24th in the league)

In the NFL all of these numbers are equally shared.

PS In case you wondering... Reds @ 48 million

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

[muskiesfan]

(05-11-2021, 01:33 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: At least the Pirates do have the small market angle to play.

Fwiw, here's the 5 highest TV deals (per year) in the MLB:

-Dodgers @ 239 million
-Angels @ 138 million
-White Sox @ 120 million
-Yankees @ 115 million
-Red Sox @ 104 million

And here's the Pirates:

Pirates @ 44 million (24th in the league)

In the NFL all of these numbers are equally shared.

PS In case you wondering...  Reds @ 48 million

Source: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/

While I somewhat agree, MLB also has revenue sharing. In 2018, each MLB team received $118m from the 48% local revenues that are shared plus another $91m per team from national revenues. So each team received $209m from revenue sharing in 2018 which does not include the money they get to keep to themselves from local revenues. That's why there's an issue when teams like the Pirates continuing with a yearly payroll between $50-80m causes an issue.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Revenue_sharing