2021 Season Prediction Thread

[*bfine32*]

We’ve done this the last couple years with mixed success:
http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-2019-Season-Prediction-Competition
http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-2020-Season-Prediction-Thread

Let’s see what we think this year

Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert?
Number of games Jonah Williams plays?
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards?
Leading WR in yards?
Number of times Joe is sacked?
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards?
Which player will have the most TDs?
TE with 2nd most catches?
Highest rated olineman according to PFF?
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)?
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey?
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)?
Team Leader in PR yards?
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54?
Non-QB Offensive MVP:
Defensive MVP:
ROY:
Breakout/Comeback Player:


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? No
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 8
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? Samaje Perine
Leading WR in yards? Ja'Marr Chase
Number of times Joe is sacked? 53
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 1
Which player will have the most TDs? Tee Higgins
TE with 2nd most catches? Drew Sample
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? Riley Reiff
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)? Hendrickson/Sample
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey? Davis-Gathers
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)? Bell/Bates
Team Leader in PR yards? Tyler Boyd
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? None if you mean rookies.
Non-QB Offensive MVP: Ja'Marr Chase
Defensive MVP: Jesse Bates
ROY: Ja'Marr Chase
Breakout/Comeback Player: Josh Tupou


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? Yes, but probably don't start next year with them.

[Luvnit2]

(07-17-2021, 10:35 AM)bfine32Let’s see what we think this year Wrote: Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? NO
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 16
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? Perine
Leading WR in yards? Chase
Number of times Joe is sacked? 21
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 1
Which player will have the most TDs? Mixon
TE with 2nd most catches? Sample only if we don't trade for Ertz
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? Williams
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)?
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey?
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)?
Team Leader in PR yards? Boyd
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? none
Non-QB Offensive MVP: Mixon
Defensive MVP: Hendrickson
ROY: Chase
Breakout/Comeback Player: Burrow


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? Yes

Can we get a prize from board on closest prediction at end of year? 

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-17-2021, 10:56 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Number of times Joe is sacked? 53

You actually think they’ll give up more than last year (48)?

[Luvnit2]

(07-17-2021, 12:11 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You actually think they’ll give up more than last year (48)?

And gosh, I thought this was a prediction thread, yet your first post is trolling a prediction????????

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-17-2021, 12:59 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: And gosh, I thought this was a prediction thread, yet your first post is trolling a prediction????????

Trolling? What the hell are you talking about? I was just surprised by that one. I didn’t realize we weren’t supposed to discuss each other’s predictions (you know…this being a discussion board and all).

But I see I’ve upset you (8 question marks!). My deepest apologies.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2021, 12:11 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: You actually think they’ll give up more than last year (48)?

They threw less after Burrow got hurt since Finley's arm is a wet noodle.

Burrow was sacked 32 times in ~9.5 games (~3.4 times per game). 

Over a 17 game season, that pace is a little over 57 sacks. So I am actually predicting Burrow to be sacked at a slightly lower rate than he was last year.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? Yes
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 17
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? Perine
Leading WR in yards? Chase
Number of times Joe is sacked? 45
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 2
Which player will have the most TDs? Chase
TE with 2nd most catches? Sample
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? Jonah
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)?
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey?
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)? Solely because of Bates.
Team Leader in PR yards? Phillips
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? Chrisman
Non-QB Offensive MVP: Chase
Defensive MVP: Bates
ROY: Chase
Breakout/Comeback Player: Breakout - Ogunjobi/Comeback- Burrow


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? Yes

[Nicomo Cosca]

(07-17-2021, 01:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: They threw less after Burrow got hurt since Finley's arm is a wet noodle.

Burrow was sacked 32 times in ~9.5 games (~3.4 times per game). 

Over a 17 game season, that pace is a little over 57 sacks. So I am actually predicting Burrow to be sacked at a slightly lower rate than he was last year.

Some of it falls on Joe to be better at not taking unnecessary hits. I don’t want the playmaker coached out of him, but he does need to be a little smarter with the ball at times.

[*Synric*]

(07-17-2021, 10:35 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? Yes
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 14
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? Samaje Perine
Leading WR in yards? Ja'Marr Chase
Number of times Joe is sacked? 37
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 2
Which player will have the most TDs? Ja'Marr Chase
TE with 2nd most catches? Drew Sample
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? Trey Hopkins
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)? Hendrickson/Sample
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey? Akeem Davis-Gaither
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)? Bell/Bates
Team Leader in PR yards? Trent Taylor
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? Pooka Williams
Non-QB Offensive MVP: Joe Mixon
Defensive MVP: Jessie Bates
ROY: Ja'Marr Chase
Breakout/Comeback Player: Comeback Player Joe Mixon


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? Yes

I'm a big fan of the Jayhawks Pooka Williams except when he played WVU of course.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2021, 01:30 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Some of it falls on Joe to be better at not taking unnecessary hits. I don’t want the playmaker coached out of him, but he does need to be a little smarter with the ball at times.

Oh, absolutely that's some of it. I'm not sure if he'll manage, though. That's not a minor mechanic or anything, that's a whole set of instincts and a mentality. That's much harder to change and it seems like a lot of QBs never do. Not a knock on Burrow, just an acceptance that it's hard to change something that integral to your mindset/game. Luck was never able to do it and it cost him his career. Combine that with an iffy OL and HC/OC, and a ton of pass attempts.. not sure there's going to be a big drop in sacks.

[*bfine32*]

Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? Yes
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 17

Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? Evans
Leading WR in yards? Higgins
Number of times Joe is sacked? 34
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 2
Which player will have the most TDs? Uzo
TE with 2nd most catches? Moss
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? Rief
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)? Hubbard/Ossai
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey? Evans
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)? CBs
Team Leader in PR yards? Lees
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? Lees
Non-QB Offensive MVP: Higgins
Defensive MVP: Hubbard
ROY: Ossai
Breakout/Comeback Player: DJ Reeder


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? Yes

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2021, 02:26 PM)Synric Wrote: I'm a big fan of the Jayhawks Pooka Williams except when he played WVU of course.

I almost had him as my answer, but then I realized that it is unlikely he kicked Trayveon Williams off the roster. At least not this year, and I don't think the Bengals will carry 5 RBs so he'll probably go to the PS.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-17-2021, 10:35 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? YES. Sorry, Essex. Don't be mad.
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 16
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? Perine
Leading WR in yards? Chase
Number of times Joe is sacked? 34
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 3
Which player will have the most TDs? Tee. Chase and Boyd will still be keyed on so Tee will be able to sneak in a bunch.
TE with 2nd most catches? Moss
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? Reiff
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)? H/S
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey? D-G
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)? B/B
Team Leader in PR yards? Phillips
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? PWJ
Non-QB Offensive MVP: Chase
Defensive MVP: Bates
ROY: Chase
Breakout/Comeback Player: B- Uzomah, C- Burrow


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? Yep

AIB

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-17-2021, 02:56 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Oh, absolutely that's some of it. I'm not sure if he'll manage, though. That's not a minor mechanic or anything, that's a whole set of instincts and a mentality. That's much harder to change and it seems like a lot of QBs never do. Not a knock on Burrow, just an acceptance that it's hard to change something that integral to your mindset/game. Luck was never able to do it and it cost him his career. Combine that with an iffy OL and HC/OC, and a ton of pass attempts.. not sure there's going to be a big drop in sacks.

Luck was bigger, stronger and thought he could handle the hits. Burrow already showed signs of improving that later in the year before the injury.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2021, 06:18 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Luck was bigger, stronger and thought he could handle the hits. Burrow already showed signs of improving that later in the year before the injury.

He did? He had 4 sacks/9 QB Hits against the Steelers. He only played half of a game against DC yet players were credited with 14 QB Hits on Burrow. If he didn't get injured, he was on pace to take somewhere in the range of 25-30 hits in a single game.

It's true he managed to get through the Titans game pretty unscathed, but that is more about the Titans. They were 30th in sacks, 29th in QB Hits, 30th in Hurry %, 27th in Knock Down %, and 31st in Pressure % (worse than the Bengals on a couple of those). The Titans were truly awful at anything to do with getting to the QB last year.

Week 1: 3 Sacks, 6 Hits
Week 2: 3 Sacks, 7 Hits
Week 3: 8 Sacks, 16 Hits
Week 4: 1 Sack, 5 Hits
Week 5: 7 Sacks, 15 Hits
Week 6: 2 Sacks, 6 Hits
Week 7: 4 Sacks, 7 Hits
Week 8: 0 Sacks, 2 Hits
Week 9: 4 Sacks, 9 Hits
Week 10: 0 Sacks, 14 Hits (~1/2 game)

Only 2 teams he didn't get pummeled by? The 31st and 30th teams (also known as the two worst non-Bengals teams) for sacks and he ended his season with his 3rd and on pace for his 1st most hits in a game. There was no improvement as far as not taking hits goes. Even if you are super generous and assume Burrow takes 0 more hits the entire rest of Week 10 if he doesn't get hurt, that would still make Weeks 9-10 tied for the highest amount of hits he took in any 2 game span all year.

[*Synric*]

(07-17-2021, 07:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He did? He had 4 sacks/9 QB Hits against the Steelers. He only played half of a game against DC yet players were credited with 14 QB Hits on Burrow. If he didn't get injured, he was on pace to take somewhere in the range of 25-30 hits in a single game.

It's true he managed to get through the Titans game pretty unscathed, but that is more about the Titans. They were 30th in sacks, 29th in QB Hits, 30th in Hurry %, 27th in Knock Down %, and 31st in Pressure % (worse than the Bengals on a couple of those). The Titans were truly awful at anything to do with getting to the QB last year.

Week 1: 3 Sacks, 6 Hits
Week 2: 3 Sacks, 7 Hits
Week 3: 8 Sacks, 16 Hits
Week 4: 1 Sack, 5 Hits
Week 5: 7 Sacks, 15 Hits
Week 6: 2 Sacks, 6 Hits
Week 7: 4 Sacks, 7 Hits
Week 8: 0 Sacks, 2 Hits
Week 9: 4 Sacks, 9 Hits
Week 10: 0 Sacks, 14 Hits (~1/2 game)

Only 2 teams he didn't get pummeled by? The 31st and 30th teams (also known as the two worst non-Bengals teams) for sacks and he ended his season with his 3rd and on pace for his 1st most hits in a game. There was no improvement as far as not taking hits goes. Even if you are super generous and assume Burrow takes 0 more hits the entire rest of Week 10 if he doesn't get hurt, that would still make Weeks 9-10 tied for the highest amount of hits he took in any 2 game span all year.

Who is responsible for each sack, QB hit, and pressure?

[*jason*]

(07-17-2021, 10:35 AM)bfine32 Wrote: We’ve done this the last couple years with mixed success:
http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-2019-Season-Prediction-Competition
http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-2020-Season-Prediction-Thread

Let’s see what we think this year

Joe Burrow finishes the year with a passer rating higher than Justin Herbert? YES
Number of games Jonah Williams plays? 16
Which player will be #2 in rushing yards? PERINE
Leading WR in yards? HIGGINS
Number of times Joe is sacked? 25 (I said it)
Number of WRs with 1,000+ yards? 2
Which player will have the most TDs? HIGGINS
TE with 2nd most catches? UZOMAH
Highest rated olineman according to PFF? JONAH.
Which duo gets more sacks: (Hendrickson/Sample) or (Hubbard/Ossai)? HUBBARD/ OSSAI
More snaps at LB between Evans, Davis-Gathers, Bailey? ADG
Duo with more INTs: Safeties (Bell/ Bates) CBs (Waynes/Awuzie)? BELL/ BATES
Team Leader in PR yards? PHILLIPS
Which (if any) UDFA makes the 54? DON'T KNOW
Non-QB Offensive MVP:. TEE HIGGINS
Defensive MVP:. JESSE BATES
ROY:. JA'MARR CHASE
Breakout/Comeback Player:. LOGAN WILSON breaks out


Poll question: Do we finish the season with our current HC/OC/DC? YES... Unfortunately.

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-17-2021, 07:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: He did? He had 4 sacks/9 QB Hits against the Steelers. He only played half of a game against DC yet players were credited with 14 QB Hits on Burrow. If he didn't get injured, he was on pace to take somewhere in the range of 25-30 hits in a single game.

It's true he managed to get through the Titans game pretty unscathed, but that is more about the Titans. They were 30th in sacks, 29th in QB Hits, 30th in Hurry %, 27th in Knock Down %, and 31st in Pressure % (worse than the Bengals on a couple of those). The Titans were truly awful at anything to do with getting to the QB last year.

Week 1: 3 Sacks, 6 Hits
Week 2: 3 Sacks, 7 Hits
Week 3: 8 Sacks, 16 Hits
Week 4: 1 Sack, 5 Hits
Week 5: 7 Sacks, 15 Hits
Week 6: 2 Sacks, 6 Hits
Week 7: 4 Sacks, 7 Hits
Week 8: 0 Sacks, 2 Hits
Week 9: 4 Sacks, 9 Hits
Week 10: 0 Sacks, 14 Hits (~1/2 game)

Only 2 teams he didn't get pummeled by? The 31st and 30th teams (also known as the two worst non-Bengals teams) for sacks and he ended his season with his 3rd and on pace for his 1st most hits in a game. There was no improvement as far as not taking hits goes. Even if you are super generous and assume Burrow takes 0 more hits the entire rest of Week 10 if he doesn't get hurt, that would still make Weeks 9-10 tied for the highest amount of hits he took in any 2 game span all year.

22 sacks and 49 hits through the first 5.
10 sacks and 38 hits through the last 5. 

Not sure where you're getting these hit numbers from but 14 in the WFT game is total BS and not reality. I just went back on GamePass and watched the condensed version and saw that he was sacked once, which was nullified by penalty, and he was legitimately tackled or knocked to the ground, after releasing a pass, five times (including the play he was injured on). 

I'm not sure if you're aware, but every time a defender touches, bumps or pushes the QB immediately after the pass--even if he doesn't go to the ground--it's counted as a "hit". One thing i'm sure you're aware of is that, a touch or a bump or a push is completely different than being tackled to the ground. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2021, 10:40 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 22 sacks and 49 hits through the first 5.
10 sacks and 38 hits through the last 5. 

Not sure where you're getting these hit numbers from but 14 in the WFT game is total BS and not reality. I just went back on GamePass and watched the condensed version and saw that he was sacked once, which was nullified by penalty, and he was legitimately tackled or knocked to the ground, after releasing a pass, five times (including the play he was injured on). 

I'm not sure if you're aware, but every time a defender touches, bumps or pushes the QB immediately after the pass--even if he doesn't go to the ground--it's counted as a "hit". One thing i'm sure you're aware of is that, a touch or a bump or a push is completely different than being tackled to the ground. 

Pro Football Reference, on the box score for the game. Sure glad you watched the condensed version in order to call it out. I doubt they would have cut out anything in order to... you know, condense.

Again, you split it 5/5, but it's really 5/4.5 and that last .5 he was getting hit a lot.

Knockdowns aren't the same as QB Hits. I'm not sure why you have to act like I am unaware of this when it's your failure to read that's the problem. In the post you quoted to reply to me, I listed both QB Hits and Knockdown % separately earlier in the post. So you read that (or skimmed it) and decided I meant they were the same thing? That's on you for reading something and then assuming something completely different, man. I was talking about just getting hit. Another thing I am aware of is that a QB who gets hit but maintains their balance, or gets hit into an OL and stays upright isn't a "knockdown" but it's still more of a hit than a QB who is throwing off balance and barely gets knocked down or flops trying to draw a flag. Hits are hits, and I don't want my QB taking that many.