Predict Bengals vs Buccaneers

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-10-2021, 11:57 AM)Earendil Wrote: This game could be interesting since it's in Tampa.  We're getting a tropical storm this weekend and the winds could be around 40mph with a few inches of rain.  It all depends on where the storm goes.

EDIT: Lightning will likely be the bigger issue. Typically, these storms are pretty lightning intense.

Thanks for the weather update.

Need to get my Gamepass setup.

[Earendil]

(08-10-2021, 01:39 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Thanks for the weather update.

Need to get my Gamepass setup.

If you want to keep up with how the storm is progressing, https://spaghettimodels.com/ is a great resource.  Right now, it looks like it will be off the coast out in the gulf rather than directly hitting Tampa.  The thing to remember about tropical storms/hurricanes is that the north-eastern quadrant of the storm is typically the strongest part.  My "guess" is that most of the bad stuff will miss the area, but that could still result in 30+ mph winds, heavy rain, and lightning.  It could even push further west and not have much of an impact at all. We'll probably have a better idea in a couple of days.

[motoarch]

Ehh...who cares.

We talkin bout pre-season.

[Frank Booth]

How the bengals starters do in preseason vs the other teams’ starters will tell a lot about the upcoming regular season

[*Nately120*]

(08-10-2021, 01:34 PM)EatonFan Wrote: As stated in this same thread it also happened in Cleveland's winless season.

Those are two anomalies and convenient anecdotes.  

In 2019 the Bills and Ravens went 4-0 in the preseason
the Browns, Steelers, Buccaneers and Seahawks went 3-1

in the 1-3 and 0-4 club were the Bengals, Jaguars, Lions, and Falcons .



Yes, pre-season scores don't count and I'm not saying they do.  You are the one who is putting too much stock in the pre-season by acting like teams who "win" preseason games are more likely to lose in the regular season.  We lost more pre-season games last year than the SB champs, multiple playoff teams, and we won MORE preseason games than the Jaguars who went 1-15 (whoops, that was in 2020, but the Jags stunk that year too).

By citing the 0-16 Lions and Browns going 4-0 you are suggesting there is a strong correlation between pre-season success and regular season failure and that just isn't so.



BUT in the end the score doesn't matter.  Still, if Brandon Allen throws a bunch of TDs in the pre-season I'm not going to assume our team is doomed nor set to win it all.

[EatonFan]

(08-10-2021, 03:50 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Those are two anomalies and convenient anecdotes.  

In 2019 the Bills and Ravens went 4-0 in the preseason
the Browns, Steelers, Buccaneers and Seahawks went 3-1

in the 1-3 and 0-4 club were the Bengals, Jaguars, Lions, and Falcons .



Yes, pre-season scores don't count and I'm not saying they do.  You are the one who is putting too much stock in the pre-season by acting like teams who "win" preseason games are more likely to lose in the regular season.  We lost more pre-season games last year than the SB champs, multiple playoff teams, and we won MORE preseason games than the Jaguars who went 1-15 (whoops, that was in 2020, but the Jags stunk that year too).

By citing the 0-16 Lions and Browns going 4-0 you are suggesting there is a strong correlation between pre-season success and regular season failure and that just isn't so.



BUT in the end the score doesn't matter.  Still, if Brandon Allen throws a bunch of TDs in the pre-season I'm not going to assume our team is doomed nor set to win it all.

My whole point is not to put stock in pre-season games.  What are you smoking?  Stop putting words in my mouth. 

[*Nately120*]

(08-10-2021, 03:56 PM)EatonFan Wrote: My whole point is not to put stock in pre-season games.  What are you smoking?  Stop putting words in my mouth. 

You keep pointing out that the 0-16 Browns and Lions went 4-0 in the preseason, so it sounds like you are correlating success in the preseasonn with failure in the regular season.  Please elaborate if I'm getting things wrong.

Let me start here, what do you mean by "putting stock" in pre-season games?  Do you mean the score?  Do you mean player performances?  What is it you are trying to say because the 0-16 Lions and Browns thing makes it seem like you are holding up mathematical anomalies as the rule.

[EatonFan]

(08-10-2021, 04:01 PM)Nately120 Wrote: You keep pointing out that the 0-16 Browns and Lions went 4-0 in the preseason, so it sounds like you are correlating success in the preseasonn with failure in the regular season.  Please elaborate if I'm getting things wrong.

Let me start here, what do you mean by "putting stock" in pre-season games?  Do you mean the score?  Do you mean player performances?  What is it you are trying to say because the 0-16 Lions and Browns thing makes it seem like you are holding up mathematical anomalies as the rule.

I followed your "correlation" link and it's laughable to even post it.  An 8% correlation?  Proves my point.  There really isn't any correlation.  Those are called examples.  They are extremes but they meant to be extreme.  I believe one of the New England SB years they went 0-4.  I could have used that example too.  

[tms]

My prediction is that... one of the rookie TEs at the back of the depth chart (O'Grady or Wells) will make a splash and get people thinking about that position group a bit more. Wilcox and Shreck will no longer be able to ignore the writing on the wall.

[*Nately120*]

(08-10-2021, 04:33 PM)EatonFan Wrote: I followed your "correlation" link and it's laughable to even post it.  An 8% correlation?  Proves my point.  There really isn't any correlation.  Those are called examples.  They are extremes but they meant to be extreme.  I believe one of the New England SB years they went 0-4.  I could have used that example too.  

I said it was a weak positive correlation, I don't think I presented it as anything other than that.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-10-2021, 04:33 PM)tms Wrote: My prediction is that... one of the rookie TEs at the back of the depth chart (O'Grady or Wells) will make a splash and get people thinking about that position group a bit more. Wilcox and Shreck will no longer be able to ignore the writing on the wall.

I do like those UDFA TE's...

[fredtoast]

This is easy.

Some unknown at the bottom of the roster will make a big play and everyone will be calling for him to be a starter.

[NUGDUKWE]

No predictions. But I'll be very curious how our defense fairs if Brady plays a series or two. Also it will be nice to get a look a Chase. Also McPherson (if that's how you spell his name) he sounds legit.

[Tony]

I predict MJ gets B. ALLEN smashed at least 3 times...

[*bfine32*]

Former Bengal Solomon Wilcots spoke out of his ass this morning on Sirius.

He stated: "Brady's playing, Burrow is not. I understand it, but that's all you need to know".

If I wasn't on my way to work and was already using my free hand to hold my beer; I would have called in.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-10-2021, 08:51 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Former Bengal Solomon Wilcots spoke out of his ass this morning on Sirius.

He stated: "Brady's playing, Burrow is not. I understand it, but that's all you need to know".

If I wasn't on my way to work and was already using my free hand to hold my beer; I would have called in.

What does that even mean from Solly? The starting QB usually doesn't play much at all the first Preseason game and Burrow is 
coming off a horrific injury and that DL of the Bucs is scary. No point in playing Burrow in this game. Maybe the Washington game
but not this one or the last one. All we need is a few series against Washington to get Burrow in game mode.

[Murdock2420]

(08-10-2021, 09:04 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: What does that even mean from Solly? The starting QB usually doesn't play much at all the first Preseason game and Burrow is 
coming off a horrific injury and that DL of the Bucs is scary. No point in playing Burrow in this game. Maybe the Washington game
but not this one or the last one. All we need is a few series against Washington to get Burrow in game mode.

I'd pass on the Washington game as well since... well you know what happened last time that DL went against him....

Game 3, give him some reps then rather then in game 2. Just feel like it would be better to sit and then go week 3, and then go into the season versus, get some reps, then sit, then season. The whole get into a rhythm thing. 

[tms]

I don't understand being fiercely for or against playing Burrow. There really is no right answer imo. All things being equal, if it were up to me I'd probably play him. I just figure, would it be better for him to get hurt in Week 1 rather than the second preseason game? Nah, it'd make no difference. They'd both be equally disastrous. Might as well get him some reps if he's healthy to shake off the rust. At the same time, the team has a lot of new parts still being integrated, there's a mental aspect that needs to be considered, preseason games tend to be sloppier, etc.

In the end, I see both sides. Not sure what I would do. I'm glad I don't have to make the decision.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(08-11-2021, 01:08 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'd pass on the Washington game as well since... well you know what happened last time that DL went against him....

Game 3, give him some reps then rather then in game 2. Just feel like it would be better to sit and then go week 3, and then go into the season versus, get some reps, then sit, then season. The whole get into a rhythm thing. 

All good points. Yeah, I think I like your idea better avoiding the 2 rough DL's and having Burrow warm up in the last game.

[Joelist]

There's really nothing here to predict. They will get a chance to see the position groups in live game style action. Adjustments hopefully will be made based on what is seen.