Mathematical estimates and simulation for the Bengals in 2021

[Murdock2420]

According to the computer models and break down of the data it would seem to indicate that Vegas was spot on with the 6.5 win total.

Found an article on Cincyjungle and it didn't project a great win total for 2021 as it had a high water mark of 6.8 wins.

"Frelund, who NFL.com uses to take mathematical approaches to predicting outcomes, ran thousands of simulations of the 2021 season. According to NFL.com, Frelund ran “300,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 81,600,000 total games ‘played.’”

Unfortunately, these projections did not favor the Bengals. According to the simulations, the Bengals’ expected win total is 5.8, with a ceiling of 6.8 wins and a floor of 2.1.

Here’s what she said:

The Bengals have my model’s 28th-ranked offensive line. Not ideal. On the plus side, rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase forecasts to score at least seven receiving touchdowns in 57.0 percent of simulations, while Joe Burrow’s median passing projection (4,403 yards) has him netting the most throwing yards in the AFC North."


Can read it all here if you want.


https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/9/8/22660734/nfl-analytics-expert-projects-bengals-2021-season

[BritishBengal]

I've started seeing this more and more, NFL sports journalists talking about models and data to predict seasons. It's just nonsense quite frankly and another way to get internet hits. Science 101 is making sure you have enough of a reliable sample size to ensure expected levels of risk/uncertainty/variables dont impact trends and lead you down false paths. A 17 game season is not enough of a sample size.

[*pally*]

As we saw numerous times last season just one or two plays can make the difference between winning or losing. So does an ill timed injury in a key spot. No one to model those unpredictable moments

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Makes me more optimistic honestly.

We see all the time where the worst teams the year before have huge comeback years and make the Playoffs.

And our team is completely different than last year at so many positions it is insane.

Health will be key for us along with the trenches improving under our new position coaches.

Turner and Eason blew man and injuries certainly didn't help along with older players falling off cliffs.

[Gdale_Bengal]

She also wanted the bengals to draft the OSU DE over burrow and keep a mediocre Andy.

I don’t really much care for freelund

[fredtoast]

I'll say the exact same thing I say in all these prediction threads.

I think we will be a much improved team but right now I can't complain about any projection placing us in the bottom quarter of the league.

[*Nately120*]

Meh, a 6 win season would be the best season of the ZT era and one of the best seasons we've had in the past 5 years...I'd say that is admitting that we will "be better" this year.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-08-2021, 04:28 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: According to the computer models and break down of the data it would seem to indicate that Vegas was spot on with the 6.5 win total.

Found an article on Cincyjungle and it didn't project a great win total for 2021 as it had a high water mark of 6.8 wins.

"Frelund, who NFL.com uses to take mathematical approaches to predicting outcomes, ran thousands of simulations of the 2021 season. According to NFL.com, Frelund ran “300,000 runs of every single regular-season game, which equals 81,600,000 total games ‘played.’”

Unfortunately, these projections did not favor the Bengals. According to the simulations, the Bengals’ expected win total is 5.8, with a ceiling of 6.8 wins and a floor of 2.1.

Here’s what she said:

The Bengals have my model’s 28th-ranked offensive line. Not ideal. On the plus side, rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase forecasts to score at least seven receiving touchdowns in 57.0 percent of simulations, while Joe Burrow’s median passing projection (4,403 yards) has him netting the most throwing yards in the AFC North."


Can read it all here if you want.


https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/9/8/22660734/nfl-analytics-expert-projects-bengals-2021-season

I enjoy "watching" when she's on but i take it with a large grain of salt because her and their "models" can't account for rookie play, injuries, weather, bounce of the ball, etc, etc. It's predictions based on previous play. 

I came to that conclusion, solidly, when i started writing down her predictions and testing them after the games were played and unsurprisingly, they're were a bunch that were wrong. Good teams get predicted to win because they're good and have that track record, same for bad teams. 

I have about 0% faith in those kind of seasonal predictions. Game by game, they're a bit more accurate. Seasonal? Throw it right out the window.