New passing metrics to consider "good"?

[*ochocincos*]

No longer than 10 years ago, stats like 4000+ passing yards, 30+ TDs, 65% completion percentage were considered "good."
Now, we're seeing far more QBs exceed those values because it's much more of a passing league and now there will be an extra game, so what is considered "good" now?

Stats for reference...
2010:
4000+ passing yards - 5 QBs
30+ TDs - 5 QBs
65+% completion percentage - 6 QBs

2020:
4000+ passing yards - 12 QBs
30+ TDs - 10 QBs
65+% completion percentage - 23 QBs(!!!)

What do people think the new thresholds should be for "good" QBs?

My thoughts:
With there being just 8 QBs at 68% or better, I think 68% is a good threshold for completion percentage.
There were 5 more QBs who were between 67.0 and 67.9.

If there was still a 16-game season, I'd say 4300 passing yards is the new "good." Only 6 QBs hit that threshold last year.
There were 2 more between 4250 and 4299.
With another game added to the season, I'd say 4500 or 4600 will be the new "good."

For passing TDs, we see a similar trend around 35+ TDs. Only 6 QBs hit that last year.
With another game added though, perhaps the threshold should be 37 TDs.

[XenoMorph]

i dont know if yards are a great indicator.. Situational football might lead to them not needing a ton of yards in the air.. But Completition % And TD/INT ratio should be included.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think the basic-level passing metric that can still be insightful is yards-per-attempt. That's also where Burrow struggled early last season and improved considerably as he progressed game-to-game. The raw counting statistics are more arbitrary and, as stated in the OP, balloon as the league changes.

The best quarterbacks could throw anywhere from 25 to 50 TDs in a 17 game season I think -- the more telling value is the number of interceptions (and thus the ratio between them). That also happened to be Burrow's most promising number as a rookie in my view: 5 INTs in ~10 games is very solid considering the number of pass attempts.

If Joe can finish 2021 at about 7.5+ YPA and a TD/INT ratio approaching or better than 30/10 we'll be cooking. It's all kind of arbitrary though.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-10-2021, 05:36 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I think the basic-level passing metric that can still be insightful is yards-per-attempt. That's also where Burrow struggled early last season and improved considerably as he progressed game-to-game. The raw counting statistics are more arbitrary and, as stated in the OP, balloon as the league changes.

The best quarterbacks could throw anywhere from 25 to 50 TDs in a 17 game season I think -- the more telling value is the number of interceptions (and thus the ratio between them). That also happened to be Burrow's most promising number as a rookie in my view: 5 INTs in ~10 games is very solid considering the number of pass attempts.

If Joe can finish 2021 at about 7.5+ YPA and a TD/INT ratio approaching or better than 30/10 we'll be cooking. It's all kind of arbitrary though.

This, TD/INT ratio along with completion percentage is how I judge QB's. If Joe can throw around 35-37 TD's along with around
10 Interceptions while completing around 68% of his passes we should be sitting pretty by the end of the season and would of 
most likely won a lot of games if the running game is also decent and of course the Defense being middle of the pack.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Pro Football Reference has a QB Rating+ stat which since it's based on QB Rating isn't perfect by any means, but it gives you a number based off of the average from that year so regardless of the year you can compare two QBs.

1st Season Playing QB Rating+
Anderson 1971: 109 (9% above average)
Esiason 1984: 85 (15% below average)
Palmer 2004: 96 (4% below average)
Dalton 2011: 94 (6% below average)
Burrow 2020: 97 (3% below average)

It's not perfect, but it certainly is way easier to compare QBs from different years.

They also have things like Y/A+, Completion%+, TD%+, INT%+ which basically do the same thing for comparison sake. Far better than just flat stats since the rules and NFL are constantly changing so much. It's going to be even worse now that they have added an extra game and will probably add an 18th in the near future. The + stats will continue to still be valid.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-10-2021, 05:21 PM)ochocincos Wrote: No longer than 10 years ago, stats like 4000+ passing yards, 30+ TDs, 65% completion percentage were considered "good."
Now, we're seeing far more QBs exceed those values because it's much more of a passing league and now there will be an extra game, so what is considered "good" now?

Stats for reference...
2010:
4000+ passing yards - 5 QBs
30+ TDs - 5 QBs
65+% completion percentage - 6 QBs

2020:
4000+ passing yards - 12 QBs
30+ TDs - 10 QBs
65+% completion percentage - 23 QBs(!!!)

What do people think the new thresholds should be for "good" QBs?

My thoughts:
With there being just 8 QBs at 68% or better, I think 68% is a good threshold for completion percentage.
There were 5 more QBs who were between 67.0 and 67.9.

If there was still a 16-game season, I'd say 4300 passing yards is the new "good." Only 6 QBs hit that threshold last year.
There were 2 more between 4250 and 4299.
With another game added to the season, I'd say 4500 or 4600 will be the new "good."

For passing TDs, we see a similar trend around 35+ TDs. Only 6 QBs hit that last year.
With another game added though, perhaps the threshold should be 37 TDs.

For a "good" QB, like say the 10th "best", considering last years numbers and 17 games this year, i'd expect something like this. 

391 comp
578 att
67.6%
4500 yds
7.8 ypa
35 tds
9 ints
264.7 ypg
104.6 quarterback rating

Those numbers are more in line for an elite QB, in a 16 game schedule but throw in the extra game and that's what i'd expect to see a "good" QB end up. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-10-2021, 07:54 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: For a "good" QB, like say the 10th "best", considering last years numbers and 17 games this year, i'd expect something like this. 

391 comp
578 att
67.6%
4500 yds
7.8 ypa
35 tds
9 ints
264.7 ypg
104.6 quarterback rating

Those numbers are more in line for an elite QB, in a 16 game schedule but throw in the extra game and that's what i'd expect to see a "good" QB end up. 

This. Nicely done. Perfecto.

[TheFan]

(09-10-2021, 06:31 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Pro Football Reference has a QB Rating+ stat which since it's based on QB Rating isn't perfect by any means, but it gives you a number based off of the average from that year so regardless of the year you can compare two QBs.

1st Season Playing QB Rating+
Anderson 1971: 109 (9% above average)
Esiason 1984: 85 (15% below average)
Palmer 2004: 96 (4% below average)
Dalton 2011: 94 (6% below average)
Burrow 2020: 97 (3% below average)

It's not perfect, but it certainly is way easier to compare QBs from different years.

They also have things like Y/A+, Completion%+, TD%+, INT%+ which basically do the same thing for comparison sake. Far better than just flat stats since the rules and NFL are constantly changing so much. It's going to be even worse now that they have added an extra game and will probably add an 18th in the near future. The + stats will continue to still be valid.

I think another important stat (I'm not sure the actual name) is yards per attempt/completion. What I mean is there's a difference between a QB who dumps it off to the RB who takes it for 15 yards after breaking 3 tackles
and a QB who throws a 15 yard pass into a small window. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-10-2021, 08:03 PM)TheFan Wrote: I think another important stat (I'm not sure the actual name) is yards per attempt/completion. What I mean is there's a difference between a QB who dumps it off to the RB who takes it for 15 yards after breaking 3 tackles
and a QB who throws a 15 yard pass into a small window. 

That is a big deal too, just sucks the dump offs have killed our D for years, this needs to stop.

Burrow is very good at throwing into tight windows.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-10-2021, 08:03 PM)TheFan Wrote: I think another important stat (I'm not sure the actual name) is yards per attempt/completion. What I mean is there's a difference between a QB who dumps it off to the RB who takes it for 15 yards after breaking 3 tackles
and a QB who throws a 15 yard pass into a small window. 

Think you're talking about CAY/Cmp? Completed Air Yards per Completion? They also have one for Completed Air Yards per Pass Attempt (CAY/PA).

Sadly those do not have a + variant for easier comparison, but yeah, also more informative than just the standard Yards per Attempt. Honestly the whole Advanced Passing and Adjusted Passing sections are generally more informative than the standard stats.

[*Nately120*]

I know we are only one game into the season, but last night had Dak Prescott with a shoulder injury bad enough for people to wonder if he'd even play throwing the ball 58 times and a 44 year old Tom Brady throwing it 50 times.

I just don't see Burrow throwing the ball 30 or so times per game.

[jfkbengals]

(09-10-2021, 05:31 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: i dont know if yards are a great indicator.. Situational football might lead to them not needing a ton of yards in the air.. But Completition %  And TD/INT ratio should be included.

And conversely, the scoreboard might require them to air it out for half a game to try and play catch up.

Maybe some will recall Aaron Brooks looking great on a bad NO team, being one of the league leaders in passing yards.  This was because they were always down multiple scores in the second half, thus airing it out against passive defenses that were working to not give up scores but could care less about giving up yards.  He then went on to a better team as a FA and couldn't get the job done throwing the ball against defenses that were actually trying to stop him.

[Whatever]

(09-10-2021, 08:03 PM)TheFan Wrote: I think another important stat (I'm not sure the actual name) is yards per attempt/completion. What I mean is there's a difference between a QB who dumps it off to the RB who takes it for 15 yards after breaking 3 tackles
and a QB who throws a 15 yard pass into a small window. 

NFL Next Gen Stats is a great resource for things like this.  They track Attempted Air Yards, Completed Air Yards, and Average Yards To the Sticks.  They also track the percentage of throws a QB makes to targets with a defender within a yard, time to throw, and actual completion % vs expected completion %.  


None of these is a smoking gun, but they provide good context when comparing QB's.  Who's pushing the ball down field and who's dinking and dunking.  Who's getting it out quick and who's holding onto the ball too long.  Who's got open guys and who's having to force it in to blanketed receivers?