Criticism… not hate on 4th down decision

[leonardfan40]

I usually like that Zac is aggressive, but that was plain stupid and nearly cost us the game. We were up 2 TD’s at the time and our defense was playing very well. Punt and make them go the length of the field against our defense that was stuffing them.

If it was at mid field or their 40 then ok you can make the argument for going for it. On our 30 that is almost automatic points for them eating into our lead.

There is aggressive and there is a 12 year old playing madden. That’s what Zac looked like with that play call. I’m up double digits and unstoppable! Why would I punt?

I’m one of Zac’s biggest defenders around here but i hated that decision. If we had lost that game it would have been 100% on him and that decision in my mind. We won basically every facet of that game and still almost lost in large part because of that call. I really don’t think they’d have sniffed tying the game if he had punted there.

[*Synric*]

(09-12-2021, 09:18 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, he was at his 28. The analytics aren’t ‘dumb’. Quite the opposite, these equations are usually created by very intelligent mathematical minds. They are guidelines that will generally give you a positive outcome in the long run. The numbers say to be very aggressive on fourth and 1 or less because you will convert them often enough to have a positive expected points outcome. All that means is that you will convert enough of those that end up leading to points for your team more than you fail them and it leads to points for the opposing team. In short, do this and you’ll score more points than they do. We saw that today in overtime. The last I checked, the numbers say to go for any 4th and 1 beyond your own 9 yard line. I wouldn’t personally do that, but I am very much in favor of being much more aggressive.

I've had this arguement with a couple of High School coaches I know. The analytics are skewed on that go for 4th down because most coaches do that near the opposing teams 40 and convert about 50%. If a team does it on their own 30 or 40 that's likely spotting the opposing team points and that isn't included on the success of the 4th down play.

[BengalsRocker]

(09-12-2021, 09:18 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It reeks of desperation, why were we desperate there ?

Because it's all he's known his whole NFL career.

Desperation confused with trust by some.

He kept going for 4th downs and was successful at conversions last season because he's a loser and is usually playing behind the 8 ball.

That play had nothing to do with going for the throat.

It was stupid.

Playing vanilla football and sitting on a lead is where bad coaches usually die.

Going for it unnecessarily with bad play calling on your own 30yd line is obnoxious and ill advised.

[KillerGoose]

For reference, the 4th down decision rated this situation a TOSS-UP. Going for it have a slightly better chance to win and failing the attempt only gave a slightly higher chance of losing. It also said we had a 69% chance of success.

If we punted, we have an 88% chance of winning.

If we go for it and get it, we have a 92% chance of winning.

If we go for it and don’t get it, we have an 82% chance of winning.

[lone bengal]

I hated it he’s aggressive on there own 30 but coached scared the rest of the game ? Run every 1st and 2nd down ,pass on 3rd. I thought I was watching Bob Bratkowski call plays. The run on 3rd and 4 at the end of the game was awful Burrow is your best player put the game in his hands. I thought the whole Drew Sample blocking the other teams best Defensive end was over like when they used him to block Myles Garrett but here he is one on one with Danille Hunter.

[leonardfan40]

(09-12-2021, 09:25 PM)Synric Wrote: I've had this arguement with a couple of High School coaches I know. The analytics are skewed on that go for 4th down because most coaches do that near the opposing teams 40 and convert about 50%. If a team does it on their own 30 or 40 that's likely spotting the opposing team points and that isn't included on the success of the 4th down play.

This^

There’s a Time and a place for that call. That was not the place for it.

[samhain]

(09-12-2021, 09:07 PM)BengalsRocker Wrote: It makes me wonder a few things.

Burrow with no injury.  Do they QB sneak it there?

There are higher percentage type runs.

WTH are we going for it on the 30yd line?  Dumb.

If this team was 0-whatever later in the season.  I get it.

Not 1st game with a lead with that field position.

Perhaps if desperation down 2 possession scores.

Burrow dove between the linemen on an earlier 4th and short.  I don't think that was the reasoning.  

If they lost I think the call was damn near a fireable offense.  With that field position he was giving away points.  Idc if you trust your defense or not, you can't outthink yourself and not make the obvious call there.  Anything past the logo and I'm a lot more okay with going for it.  It would be a lot different if they were down 2 or 3 scores, too.  

[CardCounterChris]

It was stupid. That is the type of play calling you look at when you say Zac Taylor isn't an NFL caliber coach. The upside? A new set of downs. The downside? You're two score lead becomes one. You can have faith in your offense the next drive. You can have faith in your defense on the other side of the field. There was no reason for it. I'm glad we won, but this is the type of stuff an elementary school coach knows better than.

[BengalsRocker]

(09-12-2021, 09:37 PM)samhain Wrote: Burrow dove between the linemen on an earlier 4th and short.  I don't think that was the reasoning.  

If they lost I think the call was damn near a fireable offense.  With that field position he was giving away points.  Idc if you trust your defense or not, you can't outthink yourself and not make the obvious call there.  Anything past the logo and I'm a lot more okay with going for it.  It would be a lot different if they were down 2 or 3 scores, too.  

More of percentages kind of thing.

Took a chance with the dive earlier.

Zac not wanting to tempt fate with his QB again.

[BengalsRocker]

(09-12-2021, 09:38 PM)CardCounterChris Wrote: It was stupid.  That is the type of play calling you look at when you say Zac Taylor isn't an NFL caliber coach.  The upside? A new set of downs.  The downside? You're two score lead becomes one.  You can have faith in your offense the next drive.  You can have faith in your defense on the other side of the field.  There was no reason for it.  I'm glad we won, but this is the type of stuff an elementary school coach knows better than.

That or a coach with championships and ego that screams IDGAF.

Not a newbie coach like Taylor that hasn't done a damn thing.

[George Cantstandya]

It would be interesting to see a poll and results of all NFL coaches being asked, "You have a 21-7 lead in the 3rd quarter and it is 4th and 1 on your own 30 yard line. Do you go for it or punt?"

[KillerGoose]

(09-12-2021, 09:25 PM)Synric Wrote: I've had this arguement with a couple of High School coaches I know. The analytics are skewed on that go for 4th down because most coaches do that near the opposing teams 40 and convert about 50%. If a team does it on their own 30 or 40 that's likely spotting the opposing team points and that isn't included on the success of the 4th down play.

I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.

[CardCounterChris]

(09-12-2021, 09:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.

the problem is that 77% yeilds 0 points while 23% almost certainly concedes points.  Analytics isn't just about success rate, but expected value for those decisions.  There's no way that decision yields more points than it loses.

[Murdock2420]

It's a situation where I appreciate the faith in your team, and the aggression but I hated the decision when you are at your own 30. If they are at the 50, go for it all day. That call instantly gave life to a team that didn't have much at the time. A good punt puts them at their own say 35 yard line-ish. They would eat more clock trying to get down field which helps the Bengals out, and without the big swing in momentum from the stop maybe the defense holds them up.

[*Synric*]

(09-12-2021, 09:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.

The percentage is a generalization if you go for it on 4th down and you have a 65% chance off success but spot the opposing team at the very least 3 points is that worth 35% or is playing field position the better chess move? 

3rd Quarter up by 14 on your own 30 going for it on 4th and 1 was a bad decision especially with your defensive playing well.

[maclanta]

(09-12-2021, 09:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.

I think the lack of crowd noise will make last year a bit of a statistical anomaly for 4th down decisions. Easier to do anything when you can hear your quarterback as clear as day.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[samhain]

(09-12-2021, 09:56 PM)Synric Wrote: The percentage is a generalization if you go for it on 4th down and you have a 65% chance off success but spot the opposing team at the very least 3 points is that worth 35% or is playing field position the better chess move? 

3rd Quarter up by 14 on your own 30 going for it on 4th and 1 was a bad decision especially with your defensive playing well.

It's one thing to trust your defense.  It's another to expect them to survive with guaranteed points field position.

[Au165]

(09-12-2021, 09:56 PM)Synric Wrote: The percentage is a generalization if you go for it on 4th down and you have a 65% chance off success but spot the opposing team at the very least 3 points is that worth 35% or is playing field position the better chess move? 

3rd Quarter up by 14 on your own 30 going for it on 4th and 1 was a bad decision especially with your defensive playing well.

I think the reality is if they score on that drive the game is over. He played the odds on the situation with the potential outcome a back breaker based on momentum and he struck out. He probably thought they’d hold them to 3 and keep it a two score game, but lost in all of this is the D did give up a TD on 4th down.

[*Synric*]

(09-12-2021, 10:00 PM)Au165 Wrote: I think the reality is if they score on that drive the game is over. He played the odds on the situation with the potential outcome a back breaker based on momentum and he struck out. He probably thought they’d hold them to 3 and keep it a two score game, but lost in all of this is the D did give up a TD on 4th down.

I understand his gamble it's just not one I myself would vote for considering the way the defense has played and up by 14 points. 

[Au165]

(09-12-2021, 10:08 PM)Synric Wrote: I understand his gamble it's just not one I myself would vote for considering the way the defense has played and up by 14 points. 

Right, but I think the way the D played is why actually he did it. If they get stopped (odds in their favor) D holds them to 3 they are up 10 with a chance next possession to still go up 3 scores. Getting to 3 scores in the second half is another big analytical indicator for victory.

Zach says he would have done it again though, which I’m glad mainly because I think the only way we have a special year is stealing some games being aggressive.