Too many carries for Mixon

[Sled21]

(09-14-2021, 10:41 PM)BigPapaKain Wrote: I love me some Gio Bernard, but dude was taking up a LOT of cap space for his 12 snaps a game.

That's 12 sacks not taken by Burrow..... 

[BigPapaKain]

(09-15-2021, 08:32 AM)Sled21 Wrote: That's 12 sacks not taken by Burrow..... 

I mean if Gio is preventing 12 sacks a game, we have bigger issues than a RB in pass protection or the spell RB.

[CJD]

The age of the bell cow back is over, in my opinion. Like your original post said, only 4 players have eclipsed 300 carries at all and there have only been two players in the last 5 years to eclipse 300 carries twice.

One is Ezekiel Elliott, who is already showing signs of wearing down (his ypc fell from 4.7 5o 4.5 to 4.0, and now sits at 3.0 after 1 game). In 2018, he had 8 100 yard games, in 2019 he had 7 100 yard games, in 2020 he had 2 100 yard games, and against TB, he had 33 yards on 11 carries.

The other is Derrick Henry who is a freak of a human being, but also may be due for some regression, we'll have to keep an eye on that.

I don't want Mixon to vanish the way Elliott has over the last 2 seasons. We need to meter his carries to make sure he doesn't get run down like this.

[Bengalitis]

Mixon and Perine will need to be pulled and coached extensively how to block like Gio. Mixon's been around too long and with the Bengals not to know how to block. Who is the RB's coach? What is Zac waiting for? This is unacceptable, 5 sacks is a lot. The Vikings do not play dirty like the squeelers and don't blitz as much. It's coming soon. Hope they are ready by then.

[lone bengal]

I’m surprised we didn’t see Chris Evans at all on passing downs. He had a great camp and can’t be any worse than Perine at pass blocking.

[Emeritus]

(09-14-2021, 05:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon has never had more than 280 carries in a season.

Over the previous 5 seasons only 4 RBs have had more than 300 carries in a season.  Zeke Elliott (3) and Derrick Henry (2) are the only two RBs to have done it more than once in the last 5 seasons.

With Mixon's history of injuries (only one full 16 game season in 4 years) I think it is important to manage his carries.  300 carries equals about 18 carries per game.  

I want the Bengals to continue running the ball a lot, so it is very important for one of our back up RBs to step up and play well.  Right now it is clear the Perine is our #2 back but he seemed to have some trouble in pass blocking.  I like Chris Evans' potential, but I have no idea if he can pass block.  Either way we need to get 10-12 carries from those guys if we are going to be running the ball 30 times a game.

BTW FootballOutsiders had a very good study of how workload impacts RB, and they found that carries are what counts.  There does not seem to be a lot of proof that the number of receptions has an impact on wearing down a RB (or at least not near as bad as rush attempts)  So I would be fine with Mixon getting 18 carries and 4 receptions a game.  That would be 306 carries and 68 receptions.  That is really a lot of touches, but Mixon is being paid to carry that type of load.

So we put Burrow on a "pitch" count. Then now the outlet should be to limit the Mixon carries.... ( You don't live in Cleveland you live in Cincinnati mantra) Just ask the Ravens how that works if guys are loosing seasons in practice. It doesn't matter to them because its next guy up and the infrastructure is built SB or bust. I totally agree with some of your post but its football and injuries happen. The true snap count needs to happen along the interior of the offensive line. If we win who cares about an offensive line that was just ok..... I mean 5 sacks and a franchise QB holding his leg and limping off the field after a surgically repaired knee. We really dodged a bullet because Joe was still a top 10 QB last Sunday. This isn't an offensive line thread but most know how passionately I distrust this offensive line group as it sits. So sorry about that. This offensive line is very fragile and a solid couple weeks ahead will be a good measuring stick. Pollack can only coach the talent that he has so lets not buy him luggage if things go south. Lets not ever forget that we stood pat in FA even on proven skin on the wall Vets and decided to go with the "pups" and a center on the mend in his own right along the interior. Now don't get me wrong Spain & XSF are solid but......
Do you see any of the current Bengal starters along the interior becoming high level starters in the NFL at this point in thier careers or pro bowl caliber players. No.
You just hope that they're solid enough to get you to the playoffs as a ceiling and not ruin your season as par for the course. The kicker may win this team four games and I'll continue to say that as a positive.
Go Redlegs to the wildcard!

[fredtoast]

(09-17-2021, 11:19 AM)Emeritus Wrote: Lets not ever forget that we stood pat in FA even on proven skin on the wall Vets and decided to go with the "pups" and a center on the mend in his own right along the interior. Now don't get me wrong Spain & XSF are solid but......

C'mon, man.  Can't you let us have a discussion about anything without crying about the O-line?  This is a thread about Mixon.

Also not sure what you are trying to say about "pups". Su'a-Filo and Spain are both 30 years old and have combined to start 133 NFL games. They are not close to being stars, but no way you can call them "pups".

[Emeritus]

(09-17-2021, 11:41 AM)fredtoast Wrote: C'mon, man.  Can't you let us have a discussion about anything without crying about the O-line?  This is a thread about Mixon.

Also not sure what you are trying to say about "pups". Su'a-Filo and Spain are both 30 years old and have combined to start 133 NFL games. They are not close to being stars, but no way you can call them "pups".

Maybe I should've stuck to my own mantra and just called them Serviceables w/ Rookie backups. I know its a Mixon thread and I apologized in my post about mentioning ....." Them" .. As for Mixon you run him until his cleats melt in the turf and establish him FIRST!
I believe the ceiling for the defense if healthy is 12 which is good enough for a run if you get in position.
So early on this year establishing the run and playing solid defense is how you can win some games with the kicker. Sounds logical with these weapons and a line that can night night in pass reps. Don't forget Zac is gonna cost you a few games as well. So Toast lets revisit this after week six sir. I'll find you. Again I'm not bombing your thread because nobody on these boards can debate me about this current offensive line and believe what is coming out of the trap. I stand on that like ....Week one 5 sacks, hurries don't know, hits don't know... On to week two and the adjustments....

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-14-2021, 05:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon has never had more than 280 carries in a season.

Over the previous 5 seasons only 4 RBs have had more than 300 carries in a season.  Zeke Elliott (3) and Derrick Henry (2) are the only two RBs to have done it more than once in the last 5 seasons.

With Mixon's history of injuries (only one full 16 game season in 4 years) I think it is important to manage his carries.  300 carries equals about 18 carries per game.  

I want the Bengals to continue running the ball a lot, so it is very important for one of our back up RBs to step up and play well.  Right now it is clear the Perine is our #2 back but he seemed to have some trouble in pass blocking.  I like Chris Evans' potential, but I have no idea if he can pass block.  Either way we need to get 10-12 carries from those guys if we are going to be running the ball 30 times a game.

BTW FootballOutsiders had a very good study of how workload impacts RB, and they found that carries are what counts.  There does not seem to be a lot of proof that the number of receptions has an impact on wearing down a RB (or at least not near as bad as rush attempts)  So I would be fine with Mixon getting 18 carries and 4 receptions a game.  That would be 306 carries and 68 receptions.  That is really a lot of touches, but Mixon is being paid to carry that type of load.

I think this first game was a bit of an outlier because of Joe coming back to full strength, but you are dead on.

There need to be drives where Perine or Evans get involved.  

I am hoping the same thing for Sample and Hodge to keep Hubbard and Hendrickson healthy and fresher. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-14-2021, 05:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Mixon has never had more than 280 carries in a season.

Over the previous 5 seasons only 4 RBs have had more than 300 carries in a season.  Zeke Elliott (3) and Derrick Henry (2) are the only two RBs to have done it more than once in the last 5 seasons.

With Mixon's history of injuries (only one full 16 game season in 4 years) I think it is important to manage his carries.  300 carries equals about 18 carries per game.  

I want the Bengals to continue running the ball a lot, so it is very important for one of our back up RBs to step up and play well.  Right now it is clear the Perine is our #2 back but he seemed to have some trouble in pass blocking.  I like Chris Evans' potential, but I have no idea if he can pass block.  Either way we need to get 10-12 carries from those guys if we are going to be running the ball 30 times a game.

BTW FootballOutsiders had a very good study of how workload impacts RB, and they found that carries are what counts.  There does not seem to be a lot of proof that the number of receptions has an impact on wearing down a RB (or at least not near as bad as rush attempts)  So I would be fine with Mixon getting 18 carries and 4 receptions a game.  That would be 306 carries and 68 receptions.  That is really a lot of touches, but Mixon is being paid to carry that type of load.

I agree, don't want to overwork Mixon. I think between Perine and Evans we can do this. I like both of these guys especially 
Chris Evans and his upside. You are correct that Perine had some trouble pass blocking last game. One thing about Evans is 
he is supposed to be a very good pass blocker we just don't know how he will be at the next level.

But if Perine continues to struggle in blitz pickup, give Evans some snaps there.

[fredtoast]

(09-17-2021, 01:01 PM)Emeritus Wrote:  As for Mixon you run him until his cleats melt in the turf and establish him FIRST!

I disagree.  I would rather get 300 productive carries in 17 games than 180 in 6.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-15-2021, 09:01 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The age of the bell cow back is over, in my opinion. Like your original post said, only 4 players have eclipsed 300 carries at all and there have only been two players in the last 5 years to eclipse 300 carries twice.

One is Ezekiel Elliott, who is already showing signs of wearing down (his ypc fell from 4.7 5o 4.5 to 4.0, and now sits at 3.0 after 1 game). In 2018, he had 8 100 yard games, in 2019 he had 7 100 yard games, in 2020 he had 2 100 yard games, and against TB, he had 33 yards on 11 carries.

The other is Derrick Henry who is a freak of a human being, but also may be due for some regression, we'll have to keep an eye on that.

I don't want Mixon to vanish the way Elliott has over the last 2 seasons. We need to meter his carries to make sure he doesn't get run down like this.

Derrick Henry is a guy i avoided in FF this year for that reason. He's had back to back 300+ carry seasons and that's usually a bad sign for following seasons. 

There have been articles written about the 300 carry "curse". A few guys have been able to achieve that and be successful the following year. 

Alfred Morris did it and still had 1200+ yards the following year, though with less than 300 carries that season.
Arian Foster did it twice and followed one with 1200+ yards (less than 300 carries) and followed the other with an injury.
Adrian Peterson did it several times with success the following years but he wasn't able to do much after 8 years. And he's a freak of nature.
Marshawn Lynch did it back to back and followed with 280 more for 1300+ but then fell off a cliff. He was also at the 8 year mark.
Lesean McCoy did it back to back and got injured the next year but bounced back to have a couple more good years.
Demarco Murray had almost 400 in '14 and only had one more year of 1200+ 2 years later. 
Chris Johnson did it back to back and went on to have 3 more good years. 
Priest Holmes did it 3 years in a row for KC and then he was dunzo.

In any case, other than Peterson, 300+ carries in a season is not a good sign and back to back 300+ seasons is almost a death knell. 

If Mixon can stay around 260-280 with around a 4.5+ypc, that would be huge help for the offense and Joe. 

[Shake n Blake]

We don't need to force Mixon to have 300+ carries to run a lot. Give Mixon 250 carries and "mix in" the other RB's more.

One thing I've always noticed about the Bengals is that we seem to utilize our backup RB's less than other teams.

I want to see Perine get (at least) 100+ carries this year, and 50+ for the guys behind him.

People often think of the 2009 team as revolving around CedBen...but they forget that Bernard Scott, Larry Johnson and Brian Leonard combined to chip in 147 carries of their own. We haven't done that often enough. Perine only had 5 carries last game. I'd like to see a little more than that from him going forward. Maybe 8-10 carries.

[fredtoast]

(09-18-2021, 02:13 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Derrick Henry is a guy i avoided in FF this year for that reason. He's had back to back 300+ carry seasons and that's usually a bad sign for following seasons. 

There have been articles written about the 300 carry "curse". A few guys have been able to achieve that and be successful the following year. 

Alfred Morris did it and still had 1200+ yards the following year, though with less than 300 carries that season.
Arian Foster did it twice and followed one with 1200+ yards (less than 300 carries) and followed the other with an injury.
Adrian Peterson did it several times with success the following years but he wasn't able to do much after 8 years. And he's a freak of nature.
Marshawn Lynch did it back to back and followed with 280 more for 1300+ but then fell off a cliff. He was also at the 8 year mark.
Lesean McCoy did it back to back and got injured the next year but bounced back to have a couple more good years.
Demarco Murray had almost 400 in '14 and only had one more year of 1200+ 2 years later. 
Chris Johnson did it back to back and went on to have 3 more good years. 
Priest Holmes did it 3 years in a row for KC and then he was dunzo.

In any case, other than Peterson, 300+ carries in a season is not a good sign and back to back 300+ seasons is almost a death knell. 

If Mixon can stay around 260-280 with around a 4.5+ypc, that would be huge help for the offense and Joe. 

Rey Rice looked washed up at 26 after getting over 1200 touches (carries + receptions) in 3 years ('10-'12) counting postseason.