Joe Burrow has been terrible...

[Joelist]

Some examples of QBR silliness:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/10/espns-qbr-ranks-ryan-fitzpatrick-ahead-of-tom-brady/

http://awfulannouncing.com/2011-articles/espns-new-qbr-stat-isnt-perfect-after-all.html

And lest we forget QBR also told us Terrelle Pryor was a better QB than Drew Brees...

[CarolinaBengalFanGuy]

(09-27-2021, 03:19 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Justin Fields really gonna have to improve if he's going to break the trend for NFL QBs who entered the draft from Ohio St.
40% completion and 3.9 YPA.
Dalton, meanwhile, has 73.5% completion and 5.3 YPA with the same team.

Funny thing about Justin Fields. I thought he would be the QB outside of Lawrence with the biggest potential to be good THIS season (with the other top guys either being very raw or not great IMO).

Trey Lance had that one play, Mac Jones looked good in 1 game so far, Zach Wilson bounced back game 1 and looked terrible since.

[*jason*]

Captain Obvious here... The kid does need to clean up those interceptions. I expect him to. To hell with QBR.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2021, 03:23 PM)Au165 Wrote: Matt Nagy is horrible and frankly should have been fired today after that game plan yesterday. That was embarrassing and in reality he has no business coordinating an offense at this point. If people think Zac is bad they should deep dive Nagy's playcalling.

Both Nagy and Taylor can be bad playcallers. There isn't just one bad playcaller lol.

[Au165]

(09-27-2021, 04:15 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Both Nagy and Taylor can be bad playcallers. There isn't just one bad playcaller lol.

Zac Taylor looks like Andy Reid in comparison. My point is more so, no one in the football community who is knowledgable is placing much of any blame on Fields today but the heat on Naggy has never been higher. 

[Essex Johnson]

(09-27-2021, 02:38 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: ...according to ESPN's amazing QBR stat. He ranks 25th among starters behind Tyler Heineke with a dreadful 41.5 rating.

For comparison, Andy Dalton has a 54.3.

Just a little something to keep in mind for those few that still take this fake stat seriously...and yes some still use this stat when it suits their narrative.

Btw, kinda funny to see Justin Fields with a 7.

Just like I dont buy pff as gospel 

[Shake n Blake]

Sometimes I think people overthink things. If a QB has good base stats and it's obvious that those stats have contributed to wins, does it really matter if said QB missed a few throws or contributed to a few sacks?

All in all, it's fun to go in depth, but really the best QBs put up numbers and contribute to wins. It's not complicated. Burrow has done both...hence why a 41.5 QBR looks silly.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-27-2021, 02:57 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: The Bears game really wasn't all that terrible.

Other than the 3 picks, he put up solid numbers. Also, the other 2 games should lift the rating back up. Since they didn't, that just goes to show *why* QBR is flawed. Theoretically speaking anyway, cuz none of us know how it actually works.

But besides that, how was the play Mrs Lincoln?

[Shake n Blake]

(09-27-2021, 04:32 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: But besides that, how was the play Mrs Lincoln?

Yeah yeah. I get it. What I'm saying is that as far as disaster games go, it wasn't THAT bad. Every QB has games with 3 picks. I'm just saying it gets a lot uglier than 19/30 for 207 yards, 2 scores and 3 picks. He had a 66.2 rating in that game. We've seen many QBs put up ratings in the single digits. Including a certain 2.0 game that someone will never live down.

That game shouldn't offset the other 2 games so much that Burrow is the 25th rated QB at 41.5, which is abysmal as far as QBR is concerned.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2021, 04:28 PM)Au165 Wrote: Zac Taylor looks like Andy Reid in comparison. My point is more so, no one in the football community who is knowledgable is placing much of any blame on Fields today but the heat on Naggy has never been higher. 

I don't think Nagy is a good playcaller, but it's still worth pointing out that Dalton has been way better in the same offense than Fields has.
I don't 100% know for sure that Fields not playing well is because of Nagy's playcalling, but I have confidence he's not playing as well as his competition in the same scheme.

[KillerGoose]

(09-27-2021, 04:40 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Yeah yeah. I get it. What I'm saying is that as far as disaster games go, it wasn't THAT bad. Every QB has games with 3 picks. I'm just saying it gets a lot uglier than 19/30 for 207 yards, 2 scores and 3 picks. He had a 66.2 rating in that game. We've seen many QBs put up ratings in the single digits. Including a certain 2.0 game that someone will never live down.

That game shouldn't offset the other 2 games so much that Burrow is the 25th rated QB at 41.5, which is abysmal as far as QBR is concerned.

Not really. It operates on a scale of 0-100, 50 being average. It's a below average score, but not abysmal. The actual average of QBR this season is 53. The main reason his score is below average is because of the sacks and his INT rate (sample size as well, the season is very young. He hasn't even thrown 100 passes yet). His INT rate is particularly bad and I expect that to improve substantially. Overall, I agree that he hasn't been that bad but he also hasn't been that great either. I suspect that as the season goes on and the sample size improves, so will he. I don't anticipate him having these issues all season long. 

[Earendil]

(09-27-2021, 03:25 PM)Au165 Wrote: Yep, took play calling duties back from Lazor. Lazor was actually more successful calling plays than Nagy has been of late.

Man, that's sad...

[Au165]

(09-27-2021, 04:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't think Nagy is a good playcaller, but it's still worth pointing out that Dalton has been way better in the same offense than Fields has.
I don't 100% know for sure that Fields not playing well is because of Nagy's playcalling, but I have confidence he's not playing as well as his competition in the same scheme.

Wasn't quite the same offense yesterday. They paired it way down while also not adding anything to accentuate his skill set in terms of moving the launch point or bootlegs. Nagy has an ego problem where he thinks his scheme is bigger than the players. He actually admitted today he did not give Fields the ability to check out of certain situations, which again highlights him believing his play call is better than what a QB may see in real time.

Off topic, but I like to point out it could be worse.

[Shake n Blake]

(09-27-2021, 04:51 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not really. It operates on a scale of 0-100, 50 being average. It's a below average score, but not abysmal. The actual average of QBR this season is 53. The main reason his score is below average is because of the sacks and his INT rate (sample size as well, the season is very young. He hasn't even thrown 100 passes yet). His INT rate is particularly bad and I expect that to improve substantially. Overall, I agree that he hasn't been that bad but he also hasn't been that great either. I suspect that as the season goes on and the sample size improves, so will he. I don't anticipate him having these issues all season long. 

It's abysmal enough that he's ranked 25th. A 41.5 QBR will rank near the bottom on any year you check. So I think you're looking at it all wrong.

His performance has not been "below average" even. It's been good.

Comp % - 9th
YPA - 9th
TDs - 5th
Passer rating - 10th

...and tbh that INT this week wasn't even that bad. Kinda fluky. Tight coverage. Ball was close but slightly off, got deflected way up in the air for the pick. It wasn't a dumb throw or waaay off or something.

Let me just be blunt. Do you think Burrow has had the 25th best performance this year?

[*ochocincos*]

(09-27-2021, 05:00 PM)Au165 Wrote: Wasn't quite the same offense yesterday. They paired it way down while also not adding anything to accentuate his skill set in terms of moving the launch point or bootlegs. Nagy has an ego problem where he thinks his scheme is bigger than the players. He actually admitted today he did not give Fields the ability to check out of certain situations, which again highlights him believing his play call is better than what a QB may see in real time.

Off topic, but I like to point out it could be worse.

That's on him then for getting a QB who can't sit in the pocket and complete passes.

[fredtoast]

(09-27-2021, 04:51 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Not really. It operates on a scale of 0-100, 50 being average. It's a below average score, but not abysmal. The actual average of QBR this season is 53. The main reason his score is below average is because of the sacks and his INT rate (sample size as well, the season is very young. He hasn't even thrown 100 passes yet). His INT rate is particularly bad and I expect that to improve substantially. Overall, I agree that he hasn't been that bad but he also hasn't been that great either. I suspect that as the season goes on and the sample size improves, so will he. I don't anticipate him having these issues all season long. 

I was the guy pointing out that last year Joe just put up big passing yardage numbers because he was throwing the ball more than anyone in the league.

But I was also the one pointing out that Joe's most impressive stats by far was his interception percentage which was third lowest in the league.  Even the best rookie QBs usually throw a lot of picks.  Add in the fact that Joe was almost always playing from behind and in near "desperation made" and his low int numbers were even more impressive.

What I am saying is that I think that 3 pick game was anomaly.  Based on his interception percentage from his rookie season Joe should throw 3 ints about every 242 pass attempts.  So I don't think we will be seeing a lot more of 3 in one game.

[KillerGoose]

(09-27-2021, 05:10 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: It's abysmal enough that he's ranked 25th. A 41.5 QBR will rank near the bottom on any year you check. So I think you're looking at it all wrong.

His performance has not been "below average" even. It's been good.

Comp % - 9th
YPA - 9th
TDs - 5th
Passer rating - 10th

...and tbh that INT this week wasn't even that bad. Kinda fluky. Tight coverage. Ball was close but slightly off, got deflected way up in the air for the pick. It wasn't a dumb throw or waaay off or something.

Let me just be blunt. Do you think Burrow has had the 25th best performance this year?

Abysmal means terrible. A 41.5 rating on a 0-100 scale isn't terrible, it is below average. That's the scale that they have set. Abysmal is going to be Lawrence, Wilson and Fields. It's a matter of perspective. Truthfully, you rarely see an 'abysmal' QB get significant playtime in the NFL. I don't think any of those guys are going to stay THAT bad all season long. If they do, then those teams have major concerns. This leads into my answer for your question...

No, I don't. The problem with QBR, my QB rating and any of the others is sample size. It's week three and Burrow hasn't even attempted 100 passes yet. In fact, you missed one of his best stats in your list, and that is TD% (he's third). I think he was dynamite in week one, awful in week two and really good this weekend against the Steelers. I really think this weekend could be Joe's turning point for the season. He looked incredibly confident and poised after throwing that early pick, and I love it. If he follows that up with a big performance on Thursday, then this team could really be looking at a promising season.

At the end of the day, what QBR is trying to measure is QBs who give their teams the best chance of winning via their passing abilities. If you look at 2020, the combined W/L record of the Top 10 QBs is 118-42 (73%). The W/L record of the normal passer rating Top 10 is 102-58 (63%). Passing offense and passing defense rule today's game and that is why the stat even exists. It isn't perfect, but it does paint an arguably better picture than the standard passer rating due to the different weights it places on various metrics. 

[KillerGoose]

(09-27-2021, 05:54 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I was the guy pointing out that last year Joe just put up big passing yardage numbers because he was throwing the ball more than anyone in the league.

But I was also the one pointing out that Joe's most impressive stats by far was his interception percentage which was third lowest in the league.  Even the best rookie QBs usually throw a lot of picks.  Add in the fact that Joe was almost always playing from behind and in near "desperation made" and his low int numbers were even more impressive.

What I am saying is that I think that 3 pick game was anomaly.  Based on his interception percentage from his rookie season Joe should throw 3 ints about every 242 pass attempts.  So I don't think we will be seeing a lot more of 3 in one game.

I 100% agree. I will be very surprised if Joe's INT% doesn't drop significantly. In my recent post to Shake, I think this Pitt game could be an early turning point for Joe. He looked very sharp and poised after that early pick. I'm hopeful that we're going to see a more secure passing offense. 

[fredtoast]

So here is an interesting question.

When you see that a QB has put up impressive passing numbers while being sack more often than almost any other QB in the league do you think. . .

1. "Wow, that is pretty impressive that he can put up those type of numbers while under all that pressure"

or

2. "He is really not as good as his passing numbers seem to indicate because he is hurting the team with all those sacks"

I admit that my first instinct is to go with #1, but I can also see where #2 might be true in some cases.

[*Nately120*]

(09-27-2021, 04:43 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't think Nagy is a good playcaller, but it's still worth pointing out that Dalton has been way better in the same offense than Fields has.
I don't 100% know for sure that Fields not playing well is because of Nagy's playcalling, but I have confidence he's not playing as well as his competition in the same scheme.

Nagy as a HC has gone 12-4, 8-8, and 8-8 and the guy is the HC for the Bears so his QB's have been the usual crap.  

12-4: 2018 Mitchell Trubisky (14) / Chase Daniel (2)
8-8: 2019 Mitchell Trubisky (15) / Chase Daniel (1)
8-8: 2020 Mitchell Trubisky (9) / Nick Foles (7)
1-2: 2021 Andy Dalton (2) / Justin Fields (1)

So, the guy is 29 and 22 with 38 games of Trubisky, 1 debut game with Fields, and 12 games with backup-caliber QBs in Daniels/Foles/Dalton.

So under center it's been 51 games with a bust, a rookie, and backups.  The Bears may as well try to dig up a new HC if they think Nagy is going to wreck Fields, but he's done quite well as far as being the HC of a franchise that absolutely may not have a good QB.