Analysts on the 4th and inches on the goal line

[Joelist]

I have been listening to various sports shows and they keep assuming something - that if Jax takes the FG there it will be 17-0 at the half.

Does no one remember the time on the clock?

They kick the FG and Burrow gets the ball back with both field position AND time needed to get points - either a FG or even a TD if Chase gets behind someone. Why would you assume the Bengals will play the same way they did on their own 1 if for example they are on their own 25?

[Essex Johnson]

Well points puts you up 3 scores, most teams get 5 maybe 6 possessions a half.. I like the odds be up 3 scores than 2 scores going into half

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-02-2021, 06:15 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Well points puts you up 3 scores, most teams get 5 maybe 6 possessions a half.. I like the odds be up 3 scores than 2 scores going into half

He's saying there was still enough time for the Bengals to try and drive down for 3 or 7 before the half. 

[Joelist]

(10-02-2021, 06:26 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: He's saying there was still enough time for the Bengals to try and drive down for 3 or 7 before the half. 

Exactly! We had 53 seconds and I think 2 timeouts. I have to think we are FAR more aggressive starting on our own 25 or so with that time and timeouts. 

[KillerGoose]

A 4th and inches is essentially a go-for-it situation every time. If Jax converts that (and you will convert that more often than not), that game is pretty much salted and Cincinnati loses. It was a good call.

EDIT - Here is a link to the 4th down decision bot, a bot designed by NFL analyst Ben Baldwin. The bot uses a predictive win percentage algorithm to provide recommendations on 4th down decisions. It gave a very strong GO FOR IT decision on that 4th and 1.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/status/1443752312044982275

[Joelist]

(10-02-2021, 06:40 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: A 4th and inches is essentially a go-for-it situation every time. If Jax converts that (and you will convert that more often than not), that game is pretty much salted and Cincinnati loses. It was a good call.

EDIT - Here is a link to the 4th down decision bot, a bot designed by NFL analyst Ben Baldwin. The bot uses a predictive win percentage algorithm to provide recommendations on 4th down decisions. It gave a very strong GO FOR IT decision on that 4th and 1.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/status/1443752312044982275

Agreed, it usually works. If anything can be faulted it would be using Lawrence in that type of sneak. The defense read it correctly and just buried it. 

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

I would have gone for it, too. Good thing their defense is much improved and stepped up. Hopefully they rest up over the mini bye and keep it going.

[*bfine32*]

What did the Bengals do in the 1st half to make anyone think they would go down and score in about 45 seconds?

I really can't blame Jax for going for the jugular, but I doubt "Well if we kick a FG the Bengals will just score in the 45 seconds that remain"

[bengaloo]

We won the play with good D and it helped us win the game. I agree if they would've kicked the FG, then Burrow gets the ball with better field position and plenty of time on the clock. Fans were ticked about the QB sneaks and running the clock out, but honestly I agreed with it backed up to the goal line like that. We were only down 14, which seems like a lot, but its not for Burrow.

[Joelist]

I don't think Jax was afraid the Bengals would just go down and score (although they had already seen the Bengals march right down the field and the only thing stopping a TD was a VERY suspect OPI) but they would be taking the explosiveness of Burrow to Chase into account. I was referring to the ANALYSTS just assuming that if we started with the ball, time and timeouts on our own 25 instead of our own 1 we would still just kneel and go into halftime.

[bengaloo]

(10-02-2021, 07:05 PM)Joelist Wrote: I don't think Jax was afraid the Bengals would just go down and score (although they had already seen the Bengals march right down the field and the only thing stopping a TD was a VERY suspect OPI) but they would be taking the explosiveness of Burrow to Chase into account. I was referring to the ANALYSTS just assuming that if we started with the ball, time and timeouts on our own 25 instead of our own 1 we would still just kneel and go into halftime.

The analysts were wrong, imo. If we started on our own 25 with that much clock, we would not have taken the knee at all. Especially with Burrow. 

[Au165]

(10-02-2021, 07:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What did the Bengals do in the 1st half to make anyone think they would go down and score in about 45 seconds?

I really can't blame Jax for going for the jugular, but I doubt "Well if we kick a FG the Bengals will just score in the 45 seconds that remain"

They had done a pretty good job this year scoring in those situations all year, mainly because Burrow operates best when he’s calling the plays at the line.

[Gdale_Bengal]

For how bad they were gashing the defense, that stop changed everything. Huge play from a gassed group with injuries and 87 snaps 4 days ago on thursday.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-02-2021, 07:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What did the Bengals do in the 1st half to make anyone think they would go down and score in about 45 seconds?

I really can't blame Jax for going for the jugular, but I doubt "Well if we kick a FG the Bengals will just score in the 45 seconds that remain"

What did they do in the 1st half to make anyone think they would go down and score in 4 plays to start the 2nd half?

[Destro]

(10-02-2021, 07:09 PM)bengaloo Wrote: The analysts were wrong, imo. If we started on our own 25 with that much clock, we would not have taken the knee at all. Especially with Burrow. 

Especially without Marvin.

[EatonFan]

I told my son that I think the Jags should kick the figgie to go up 3 scores and it would be a mistake on the road to go for it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Going for it was just a much better choice, and I doubt Urban Meyer needed to think about it very hard. The risk factor is minimal when you have half a yard to gain. I think you can criticize the play call, because putting Lawrence in the shotgun increased that to effectively a full yard or more.

There’s a significant difference between 17 and 21 that talking heads in national media haven’t respected. They’re stuck in the conventional wisdom of old. You almost never, except in highly specific mathematical circumstances, kick a field goal from inside the 2 yard line. It’s utterly foolish. Nobody does that anymore.

[PV Bengal]

(10-02-2021, 06:10 PM)Joelist Wrote: I have been listening to various sports shows and they keep assuming something - that if Jax takes the FG there it will be 17-0 at the half.

Does no one remember the time on the clock?

They kick the FG and Burrow gets the ball back with both field position AND time needed to get points - either a FG or even a TD if Chase gets behind someone. Why would you assume the Bengals will play the same way they did on their own 1 if for example they are on their own 25?

Did you not remember how piss-poor the Bengals had played for the previous 29+minutes? That the Bengals, at that point in time, could've found the correct locker room is questionable. To say nothing of driving 75 yards in 53 seconds for a score.

Had Jax gone up 17-0 or 21-0, the game would have been, effectively, over.

[3wt]

(10-02-2021, 07:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What did the Bengals do in the 1st half to make anyone think they would go down and score in about 45 seconds?

I really can't blame Jax for going for the jugular, but I doubt "Well if we kick a FG the Bengals will just score in the 45 seconds that remain"

Agreed.  And no change of momentum going into the locker room to fuel them coming out for the second half.  I wasn't sure it was going to be enough as it was.  But clearly it revved Joey Franchise to a feverish pitch.  Best game I've been to in a decade.  Nothing like coming back from the dead when the other team was not giving up.

[EatonFan]

(10-03-2021, 09:46 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Going for it was just a much better choice, and I doubt Urban Meyer needed to think about it very hard. The risk factor is minimal when you have half a yard to gain. I think you can criticize the play call, because putting Lawrence in the shotgun increased that to effectively a full yard or more.

There’s a significant difference between 17 and 21 that talking heads in national media haven’t respected. They’re stuck in the conventional wisdom of old. You almost never, except in highly specific mathematical circumstances, kick a field goal from inside the 2 yard line. It’s utterly foolish. Nobody does that anymore.

Totally disagree.  You go up by three scores there.  If it's in the middle of the 1st quarter I'd agree, but not with less than a minute, on the road to go up by 17.