Elephant in the Room

[Au165]

(11-01-2021, 05:36 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Peyton and Favre are common names to bring up but those seasons occurred in a different era. In the modern NFL, 19 interceptions is awful, quite frankly. Since 2010, there has been 463 occurrences where the QB attempted 150 or more passes. If Burrow throws 19 interceptions, that will be tied for the 18th most interceptions since 2010.

Hell, if you push that back to 2005, 19 interceptions would be tied for the 29th most. Since 2015, it would be the 6th most. I would classify that as terrible in the modern NFL. Today’s NFL is all about efficiency and INTs are killer.

Aside from those picks, though, Burrow is a flat out stud and I do think he is going to get them fixed.

What's interesting is he is top 5 in INT % but also #1 in TD% (tied with Stafford). Taking that one step further his 8.1% TD percentage is the highest since Mahomes's 2018 MVP year (8.6%), and pretty substantially at that. I think, and this will sound weird, that I am okay with the interceptions as long as he keeps the same TD%, where we get in trouble is when that TD% comes down to around league average and the INT% doesn't drop with it.

One interesting note, after the red zone int last week Burrow said he threw that ball because with our defense he trusts them and is willing to take more chances. It's an interesting thought that I am not opposed to, again because the payoff has come at an equally high rate but it's something to watch as the year goes on.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-01-2021, 05:36 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Peyton and Favre are common names to bring up but those seasons occurred in a different era. In the modern NFL, 19 interceptions is awful, quite frankly. Since 2010, there has been 463 occurrences where the QB attempted 150 or more passes. If Burrow throws 19 interceptions, that will be tied for the 18th most interceptions since 2010.

Hell, if you push that back to 2005, 19 interceptions would be tied for the 29th most. Since 2015, it would be the 6th most. I would classify that as terrible in the modern NFL. Today’s NFL is all about efficiency and INTs are killer.

Aside from those picks, though, Burrow is a flat out stud and I do think he is going to get them fixed.

Yes, I used Favre and Manning as examples, but I also referenced Mahomes 2021, who has the exact same number as Burrow.
So they are on the same pace by season's end.
INTs are killer but Burrow is also throwing the ball downfield a lot.
He's 3rd in the league in Yards Per Attempt at 9.0 (1st is Wilson at 9.6, 2nd is Stafford at 9.1).
Burrow also leads in yards per completion at 13.3.

Burrow is efficient, he just has some of his passes end up in INTs, not all of which have been his fault.

[Au165]

(11-01-2021, 05:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yes, I used Favre and Manning as examples, but I also referenced Mahomes 2021, who has the exact same number as Burrow.
So they are on the same pace by season's end.
INTs are killer but Burrow is also throwing the ball downfield a lot.
He's 3rd in the league in Yards Per Attempt at 9.0 (1st is Wilson at 9.6, 2nd is Stafford at 9.1).
Burrow also leads in yards per completion at 13.3.

Burrow is efficient, he just has some of his passes end up in INTs, not all of which have been his fault.

See my note, numbers are tough because not everyone throws at an equal clip which is why I used INT %. He is high currently but he is also pretty elite in other categories. You take the good with the bad here.

[*ochocincos*]

(11-01-2021, 05:47 PM)Au165 Wrote: See my note, numbers are tough because not everyone throws at an equal clip which is why I used INT %. He is high currently but he is also pretty elite in other categories. You take the good with the bad here.

Yep I knew all those stats before I posted.
It's an area of improvement for Burrow, but I don't think it's something that will keep him from being a Top 10 QB through his career.
As you said, you take the good with the bad, and right now he has (far) more good than bad.

[KillerGoose]

(11-01-2021, 05:43 PM)Au165 Wrote: What's interesting is he is top 5 in INT % but also #1 in TD% (tied with Stafford). Taking that one step further his 8.1% TD percentage is the highest since Mahomes's 2018 MVP year (8.6%), and pretty substantially at that. I think, and this will sound weird, that I am okay with the interceptions as long as he keeps the same TD%, where we get in trouble is when that TD% comes down to around league average and the INT% doesn't drop with it.

One interesting note, after the red zone int last week Burrow said he threw that ball because with our defense he trusts them and is willing to take more chances. It's an interesting thought that I am not opposed to, again because the payoff has come at an equally high rate but it's something to watch as the year goes on.

I believe the highest recent TD% was A-Rod with 9.1% last season. However, that is still a great point and lines up with what I have in my spreadsheet. Despite such a high INT%, I believe he will rate out as a top 5 QB after this week. His EPA per attempt is 11th, I believe, but his total EPA is 8th. All of this despite the interceptions. The rest of his game is good enough that he is offsetting it with an absurd TD%. I think part of my frustration is coming from knowing how well we would be doing IF he cut them down. However, given the circumstances, it isn’t the most awful thing.

I do think he is going to improve in this area as he continues progressing, he didn’t struggle with picks in college or last season. The data might be limited there, but still.

[BigPapaKain]

Favre threw a lot of picks. Nobody cared because he found ways to win anyways.

Joe is a gunslinger.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-01-2021, 04:43 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I don't know if the interceptions he has thrown have been any kind of real trend though. Yesterday's was just a tipped pass on a pre-determined screen play to Chase; just a great play by the defender.
Against Baltimore, it was an obviously bad decision but not one based on an incorrect read or any mechanical issue. He was just being hit and chased and threw up a prayer. You prefer he doesn't throw that ball, but it's not something I'm concerned about.
Against Detroit, his interception was just off of a dropped pass by Chase.
Against Green Bay, the second interception was a miscommunication between Boyd and Burrow. it looked ugly, but it was a play that, had Boyd cut where Burrow expected, would have been a good play.

If all his interceptions were due to one problem, like if all of them were misread defenses or just stupid decisions, I'd be concerned. But the majority of his picks seem to me more like isolated issues that aren't really linked that much. But that may just be my bias talking haha.

Good post. Like with most things, context is key.

[NUGDUKWE]

(11-01-2021, 03:20 PM)jj22 Wrote: Is it time to panic over Burrow's 4th quarter interceptions? These are happening too frequently from a top tier qb.

He's got to get these interceptions under control.

I think it's too early. I really just hate the play call more than anything yesterday. Obviously we all know Chase is amazing but the WR screens to him have not been effective. But maybe to your point that is a situation Burrow needs to realize it isn't there and needs to throw it to Chase's feet and go to the next play.

[Essex Johnson]

(11-01-2021, 05:03 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Hell even the GOAT threw a pick 6 yesterday

But he is the GOAT and nobody out of draft.. Burrow was not,  I will take leading us to playoff win first, Burrrow will need to clean up 2nd half ints or he will have trouble doing that..

[Fan_in_Kettering]

Only two Bengal quarterbacks in history led the league in throwing the most interceptions in a season: Boomer Esiason in 1990 and Carson Palmer in 2007.

[*Go Cards*]

(11-01-2021, 06:10 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Only two Bengal quarterbacks in history led the league in throwing the most interceptions in a season:  Boomer Esiason in 1990 and Carson Palmer in 2007.

Carson could have done it another time or two if he did not quit. 

[Au165]

(11-01-2021, 05:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I believe the highest recent TD% was A-Rod with 9.1% last season. However, that is still a great point and lines up with what I have in my spreadsheet. Despite such a high INT%, I believe he will rate out as a top 5 QB after this week. His EPA per attempt is 11th, I believe, but his total EPA is 8th. All of this despite the interceptions. The rest of his game is good enough that he is offsetting it with an absurd TD%. I think part of my frustration is coming from knowing how well we would be doing IF he cut them down. However, given the circumstances, it isn’t the most awful thing.

I do think he is going to improve in this area as he continues progressing, he didn’t struggle with picks in college or last season. The data might be limited there, but still.

Yea, not sure why Arods didn’t come up on my list. That said, if you think about it as basically a season worth of games give or take it’s more impressive. This isn’t a guy who’s seen it all, it’s a guy still learning.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-01-2021, 06:10 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Only two Bengal quarterbacks in history led the league in throwing the most interceptions in a season: Boomer Esiason in 1990 and Carson Palmer in 2007.

I wasn’t going to bring him up (not trying to get any panties in a bunch), but the year Dalton broke the franchise passing TD record he threw a lot of picks as well (20). It’s obviously not something you want to see, but if the QB is also throwing a ton of TD’s you can live with it.

We aren’t talking about being in the Jamies 30/30 club here.

[KillerGoose]

(11-01-2021, 06:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: Yea, not sure why Arods didn’t come up on my list. That said, if you think about it as basically a season worth of games give or take it’s more impressive. This isn’t a guy who’s seen it all, it’s a guy still learning.

I 100% agree with you. I'm super optimistic about Burrow. 

[Joelist]

That INT was bad decision making. The instant he saw a defender in the throw lane on a screen either run or throw it away - screens typically have lower passes and are a bit easier to tip. If Burrow uses his supposed great football mind he lives to fight another day and we likely win.

[Nicomo Cosca]

Zac Taylor on NYJ approach on stopping Chase explosives: "They were pretty hell bent on not allowing that to happen. I think it was smart of Joe to not force some balls into cloud coverage or double coverage. You could see what their mentality was coming into that game."

— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) November 1, 2021

Burrow’s decision making was actually pretty good yesterday.

[*Synric*]

(11-01-2021, 06:31 PM)Joelist Wrote: That INT was bad decision making. The instant he saw a defender in the throw lane on a screen either run or throw it away - screens typically have lower passes and are a bit easier to tip. If Burrow uses his supposed great football mind he lives to fight another day and we likely win.

There was no running away or throwing it away. The defender was already in his face as he turned back to the line after booting. Two choices throw it or take a sack. Was a great play by Lawson.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(11-01-2021, 06:31 PM)Joelist Wrote: That INT was bad decision making. The instant he saw a defender in the throw lane on a screen either run or throw it away - screens typically have lower passes and are a bit easier to tip. If Burrow uses his supposed great football mind he lives to fight another day and we likely win.

Imagine not already being convinced Joe Burrow has a great football mind. He reads defenses, and knows the coverages as well as any QB in the league.

Have you ever heard him break down plays in interviews?

[*Go Cards*]

Feel the Elephant in the room is the O-line not being able to get any push on short yardage plays that are obvious running plays.

[*PhilHos*]

(11-01-2021, 06:42 PM)Go Cards Wrote: Feel the Elephant in the room 

Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, no thanks.